151
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Lee SY, Lung SCC, Chiu PG, Wang WC, Tsai IC, Lin TH. Northern Hemisphere Urban Heat Stress and Associated Labor Hour Hazard from ERA5 Reanalysis. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19138163. [PMID: 35805822 PMCID: PMC9266236 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19138163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2022] [Revised: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Increasing surface air temperature is a fundamental characteristic of a warming world. Rising temperatures have potential impacts on human health through heat stress. One heat stress metric is the wet-bulb globe temperature, which takes into consideration the effects of radiation, humidity, and wind speed. It also has broad health and environmental implications. This study presents wet-bulb globe temperatures calculated from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis and combines it with health guidelines to assess heat stress variability and the potential for reduction in labor hours over the past decade on both the continental and urban scale. Compared to 2010–2014, there was a general increase in heat stress during the period from 2015 to 2019 throughout the northern hemisphere, with the largest warming found in tropical regions, especially in the northern part of the Indian Peninsula. On the urban scale, our results suggest that heat stress might have led to a reduction in labor hours by up to ~20% in some Asian cities subject to work–rest regulations. Extremes in heat stress can be explained by changes in radiation and circulation. The resultant threat is highest in developing countries in tropical areas where workers often have limited legal protection and healthcare. The effect of heat stress exposure is therefore a collective challenge with environmental, economic, and social implications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shih-Yu Lee
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan; (S.-C.C.L.); (W.-C.W.); (I.-C.T.)
- Correspondence:
| | - Shih-Chun Candice Lung
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan; (S.-C.C.L.); (W.-C.W.); (I.-C.T.)
| | - Ping-Gin Chiu
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
| | - Wen-Cheng Wang
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan; (S.-C.C.L.); (W.-C.W.); (I.-C.T.)
| | - I-Chun Tsai
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan; (S.-C.C.L.); (W.-C.W.); (I.-C.T.)
| | - Thung-Hong Lin
- Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529, Taiwan;
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152
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Abstract
Rationale: Avoiding excess health damages attributable to climate change is a primary motivator for policy interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the health benefits of climate mitigation, as included in the policy assessment process, have been estimated without much input from health experts. Objectives: In accordance with recommendations from the National Academies in a 2017 report on approaches to update the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG), an expert panel of 26 health researchers and climate economists gathered for a virtual technical workshop in May 2021 to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis and recommend improvements to the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models. Methods: Regionally resolved effect estimates of unit increases in temperature on net all-cause mortality risk were generated through random-effects pooling of studies identified through a systematic review. Results: Effect estimates and associated uncertainties varied by global region, but net increases in mortality risk associated with increased average annual temperatures (ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% per 1°C) were estimated for all global regions. Key recommendations for the development and utilization of health damage modules were provided by the expert panel and included the following: not relying on individual methodologies in estimating health damages; incorporating a broader range of cause-specific mortality impacts; improving the climate parameters available in economic models; accounting for socioeconomic trajectories and adaptation factors when estimating health damages; and carefully considering how air pollution impacts should be incorporated in economic-climate models. Conclusions: This work provides an example of how subject-matter experts can work alongside climate economists in making continued improvements to SC-GHG estimates.
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153
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Gu R, Li C, Li D, Yang Y, Gu S. The Impact of Rationalization and Upgrading of Industrial Structure on Carbon Emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19137997. [PMID: 35805656 PMCID: PMC9265910 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19137997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2022] [Revised: 06/25/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Carbon dioxide mainly comes from industrial economic activities. Industrial structure optimization is an effective way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This paper uses the panel data of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2019, uses the Theil index to calculate the industrial structure rationalization index, and uses the proportion of industrial added value to calculate the industrial structure upgrade index. By constructing the STIRPAT model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of industrial structure rationalization and upgrade on carbon emissions. The results show that the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration significantly inhibit carbon emissions. Compared with the rationalization of the industrial structure, the upgrading of industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has a better effect on carbon emission reduction. For the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, government expenditure on science and technology can promote the upgrading of industrial structure to a certain extent, thereby reducing carbon emissions. There is a big gap between the industrial structure development level of Hebei province and that of Beijing and Tianjin. Finally, based on the conclusion, this paper puts forward the policy enlightenment of promoting the optimization process of industrial structure and reducing carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Runde Gu
- School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China; (R.G.); (D.L.)
| | - Chunfa Li
- School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China; (R.G.); (D.L.)
- Correspondence: (C.L.); (Y.Y.)
| | - Dongdong Li
- School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China; (R.G.); (D.L.)
| | - Yangyang Yang
- School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China; (R.G.); (D.L.)
- Correspondence: (C.L.); (Y.Y.)
| | - Shan Gu
- Tians Engineering Technology Group Co., Ltd., Shijiazhuang 050035, China;
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154
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City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America. Nat Med 2022; 28:1700-1705. [PMID: 35760859 PMCID: PMC9388372 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-01872-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Accepted: 05/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Climate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined temperature and mortality in Latin America. We conducted a nonlinear, distributed-lag, longitudinal analysis of daily ambient temperatures and mortality among 326 Latin American cities between 2002 and 2015. We observed 15,431,532 deaths among ≈2.9 billion person-years of risk. The excess death fraction of total deaths was 0.67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.74%) for heat-related deaths and 5.09% (95% CI 4.64-5.47%) for cold-related deaths. The relative risk of death was 1.057 (95% CI 1.046-1.067%) per 1 °C higher temperature during extreme heat and 1.034 (95% CI 1.028-1.040%) per 1 °C lower temperature during extreme cold. In Latin American cities, a substantial proportion of deaths is attributable to nonoptimal ambient temperatures. Marginal increases in observed hot temperatures are associated with steep increases in mortality risk. These risks were strongest among older adults and for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths.
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155
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Wilasang C, Modchang C, Lincharoen T, Chadsuthi S. Estimation of Excess All-Cause Mortality Due to COVID-19 in Thailand. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7070116. [PMID: 35878128 PMCID: PMC9322618 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7070116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2022] [Revised: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Thailand has experienced the most prominent COVID-19 outbreak in 2021, resulting in a new record for COVID-19 cases and deaths. To assess the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause and pneumonia mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 outbreak from April to October 2021. We used mortality from the previous 5 years to estimate the baseline number of deaths using generalized linear mixed models. The models were adjusted for seasonality and demographics. We found that, during the outbreak in 2021, there was a significant rise in excess fatalities, especially in the older age groups. The estimated cumulative excess death was 14.3% (95% CI: 8.6–18.8%) higher than the baseline. The results also showed that the excess deaths in males were higher than in females by approximately 26.3%. The excess deaths directly caused by the COVID-19 infections accounted for approximately 75.0% of the all-cause excess deaths. Furthermore, excess pneumonia deaths were also found to be 26.2% (95% CI: 4.8–46.0%) above baseline.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chaiwat Wilasang
- Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (C.W.); (C.M.); (T.L.)
| | - Charin Modchang
- Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (C.W.); (C.M.); (T.L.)
- Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, MHESI, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
- Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, 328 Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
| | - Thanchanok Lincharoen
- Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (C.W.); (C.M.); (T.L.)
| | - Sudarat Chadsuthi
- Department of Physics, Research Center for Academic Excellence in Applied Physics, Faculty of Science, Naresuan University, Phitsanulok 65000, Thailand
- Correspondence:
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156
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Tasgaonkar P, Zade D, Ehsan S, Gorti G, Mamnun N, Siderius C, Singh T. Indoor heat measurement data from low-income households in rural and urban South Asia. Sci Data 2022; 9:285. [PMID: 35680940 PMCID: PMC9184534 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01314-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2021] [Accepted: 04/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Rising temperatures are causing distress across the world, and for those most vulnerable, it is a silent killer. Information about indoor air temperature in residential dwellings is of interest for a range of reasons, such as health, thermal comfort and coping practices. However, there have been only few studies that measure indoor heat exposure, and contrast these to outdoor temperatures in rural-urban areas, of which none are in South Asia. We aim to close this knowledge gap with our indoor and outdoor heat measurement dataset, covering five low-income sites in South Asia. Two sites are in rural areas (Maharashtra, India), while three sites focus on urban areas (Dhaka, Delhi and Faisalabad). Data are based on 206 indoor temperature data loggers and complemented by data from five outdoor automated weather stations. The data-set can be used to examine temperature and humidity variation in low-socioeconomic status households in rural and urban areas and to better understand factors aggravating heat stress. This is important to plan and implement actions for combating heat stress. Measurement(s) | air temperature • Humidity • atmospheric wind speed | Technology Type(s) | weather station • Temperature Sensor Device | Factor Type(s) | roof • wall • ventilation • room type • season • floor • ceiling • fan • direction • room • wind speed • solar radiation • hours • date • Evaporative cooler • Wall material | Sample Characteristic - Environment | weather | Sample Characteristic - Location | Jalna District • Yavatmal District • New Delhi • Faisalabad City • Dhaka |
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Affiliation(s)
- Premsagar Tasgaonkar
- WOTR Centre for Resilience Studies (W-CReS), Watershed Organisation Trust (WOTR), Pune, India. .,School of Social Work, Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS), Mumbai, India.
| | - Dipak Zade
- WOTR Centre for Resilience Studies (W-CReS), Watershed Organisation Trust (WOTR), Pune, India
| | - Sana Ehsan
- Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Ganesh Gorti
- The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Delhi, India.,Department of Political Science and Institute of Behavioral Science - University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America
| | - Nabir Mamnun
- Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh.,Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Christian Siderius
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.,Uncharted Waters, Sydney, Australia
| | - Tanya Singh
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.,Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
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157
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Carrere J, Belvis F, Peralta A, Marí-Dell'Olmo M, López MJ, Benach J, Novoa AM. Effectiveness of an Energy-Counseling Intervention in Reducing Energy Poverty: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Study in a Southern European City. J Urban Health 2022; 99:549-561. [PMID: 35622196 PMCID: PMC9187783 DOI: 10.1007/s11524-022-00642-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Energy poverty is a serious social problem with well-known adverse health consequences. This problem has been addressed mainly through improvements in the energy efficiency of housing. Still, little is known about the effects of information-based measures on energy poverty and their impacts on health. A quasi-experimental study was implemented to assess the effectiveness of an energy-counseling home visit intervention targeting the vulnerable population in a southern European city, Barcelona, in alleviating energy poverty and improving health. The intervention had beneficial impacts on keeping homes at an adequate indoor temperature and reducing primary care visits. No effects were found on self-perceived health or self-reported anxiety and depression. After the intervention, participants reported a decrease in arrears on utility bills, but less pronounced than in the comparison group. In conclusion, the study showed that information-based measures lead to psychosocial gains and reduced healthcare use. Nevertheless, the impact of these measures could be enhanced by combining them with policies and programmes that address the structural determinants of energy poverty.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juli Carrere
- Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, 08023, Pl. Lesseps 1, Barcelona, Spain.
- Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
- Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica (IIB Sant Pau), Barcelona, Spain.
| | - Francesc Belvis
- Research Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS-EMCONET) Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- Johns Hopkins University-Universitat Pompeu Fabra Public Policy Center (JHU-UPF PPC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Andrés Peralta
- Instituto de Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Marc Marí-Dell'Olmo
- Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, 08023, Pl. Lesseps 1, Barcelona, Spain
- Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica (IIB Sant Pau), Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - María José López
- Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, 08023, Pl. Lesseps 1, Barcelona, Spain
- Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica (IIB Sant Pau), Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Joan Benach
- Research Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS-EMCONET) Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- Johns Hopkins University-Universitat Pompeu Fabra Public Policy Center (JHU-UPF PPC), Barcelona, Spain
- UPF Barcelona School of Management (UPF-BSM), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ana M Novoa
- Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, 08023, Pl. Lesseps 1, Barcelona, Spain
- Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica (IIB Sant Pau), Barcelona, Spain
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158
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Zhao Q, Yu P, Mahendran R, Huang W, Gao Y, Yang Z, Ye T, Wen B, Wu Y, Li S, Guo Y. Global climate change and human health: Pathways and possible solutions. ECO-ENVIRONMENT & HEALTH (ONLINE) 2022; 1:53-62. [PMID: 38075529 PMCID: PMC10702927 DOI: 10.1016/j.eehl.2022.04.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Revised: 04/13/2022] [Accepted: 04/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2023]
Abstract
Global warming has been changing the planet's climate pattern, leading to increasing frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events and natural disasters. These climate-changing events affect various health outcomes adversely through complicated pathways. This paper reviews the main signs of climate change so far, e.g., suboptimal ambient temperature, sea-level rise and other conditions, and depicts the interactive pathways between different climate-changing events such as suboptimal temperature, wildfires, and floods with a broad range of health outcomes. Meanwhile, the modifying effect of socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors on the pathways is summarised, such that the youth, elderly, females, poor and those living in coastal regions are particularly susceptible to climate change. Although Earth as a whole is expected to suffer from climate change, this review article discusses some potential benefits for certain regions, e.g., a more liveable environment and sufficient food supply. Finally, we summarise certain mitigation and adaptation strategies against climate change and how these strategies may benefit human health in other ways. This review article provides a comprehensive and concise introduction of the pathways between climate change and human health and possible solutions, which may map directions for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Pei Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Rahini Mahendran
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Wenzhong Huang
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Yuan Gao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Zhengyu Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Tingting Ye
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Bo Wen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Yao Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3004, Australia
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159
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Weitz CA, Mukhopadhyay B, Das K. Individually experienced heat stress among elderly residents of an urban slum and rural village in India. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:1145-1162. [PMID: 35359160 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02264-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2021] [Revised: 01/10/2022] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The elderly are one of the most vulnerable groups to heat-related illnesses and mortality. In tropical countries like India, where heat waves have increased in frequency and severity, few studies have focused on the level of stress experienced by the elderly. The study presented here included 130 elderly residents of Kolkata slums and 180 elderly residents of rural villages about 75 km south of Kolkata. It used miniature monitoring devices to continuously measure temperature, humidity, and heat index experienced during everyday activities over 24-h study periods, during hot summer months. In the Kolkata slum, construction materials and the urban heat island effect combined to create hotter indoor than outdoor conditions throughout the day, and particularly at night. As a result, elderly slum residents were 4.3 times more likely to experience dangerous heat index levels (≥ 45°C) compared to rural village elderly. In both locations, the median 24-h heat indexes of active elderly were up to 2°C higher than inactive/sedentary elderly (F = 25.479, p < 0.001). Among Kolkata slums residents, there were no significant gender differences in heat exposure during the day or night, but in the rural village, elderly women were 4 times more likely to experience dangerous heat index levels during the hottest times of the day compared to elderly men. Given the decline in thermoregulatory capacity associated with aging and the increasing severity of extreme summer heat in India, these results forecast a growing public health challenge that will require both scientific and government attention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles A Weitz
- Department of Anthropology, Temple University, 214 Gladfelter Hall, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
| | - Barun Mukhopadhyay
- Formerly, Biological Anthropology Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, 700 108, India
- Indian Anthropological Society, Kolkata, 700 019, India
| | - Ketaki Das
- West Bengal Voluntary Health Association, Kolkata, 700107, India
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160
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Heatwave Mortality in Summer 2020 in England: An Observational Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19106123. [PMID: 35627660 PMCID: PMC9141696 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19106123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2022] [Revised: 05/04/2022] [Accepted: 05/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
High ambient temperatures pose a significant risk to health. This study investigates the heatwave mortality in the summer of 2020 during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and related countermeasures. The heatwaves in 2020 caused more deaths than have been reported since the Heatwave Plan for England was introduced in 2004. The total and cause-specific mortality in 2020 was compared to previous heatwave events in England. The findings will help inform summer preparedness and planning in future years as society learns to live with COVID-19. Heatwave excess mortality in 2020 was similar to deaths occurring at home, in hospitals, and in care homes in the 65+ years group, and was comparable to the increases in previous years (2016–2018). The third heatwave in 2020 caused significant mortality in the younger age group (0–64) which has not been observed in previous years. Significant excess mortality was observed for cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and Alzheimer’s and Dementia across all three heatwaves in persons aged 65+ years. There was no evidence that the heatwaves affected the proportional increase of people dying at home and not seeking heat-related health care. The most significant spike in daily mortality in August 2020 was associated with a period of high night-time temperatures. The results provide additional evidence that contextual factors are important for managing heatwave risks, particularly the importance of overheating in dwellings. The findings also suggest more action is also needed to address the vulnerability in the community and in health care settings during the acute response phase of a heatwave.
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161
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Cloud-based applications for accessing satellite Earth observations to support malaria early warning. Sci Data 2022; 9:208. [PMID: 35577816 PMCID: PMC9110363 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01337-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2021] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Malaria epidemics can be triggered by fluctuations in temperature and precipitation that influence vector mosquitoes and the malaria parasite. Identifying and monitoring environmental risk factors can thus provide early warning of future outbreaks. Satellite Earth observations provide relevant measurements, but obtaining these data requires substantial expertise, computational resources, and internet bandwidth. To support malaria forecasting in Ethiopia, we developed software for Retrieving Environmental Analytics for Climate and Health (REACH). REACH is a cloud-based application for accessing data on land surface temperature, spectral indices, and precipitation using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. REACH can be implemented using the GEE code editor and JavaScript API, as a standalone web app, or as package with the Python API. Users provide a date range and data for 852 districts in Ethiopia are automatically summarized and downloaded as tables. REACH was successfully used in Ethiopia to support a pilot malaria early warning project in the Amhara region. The software can be extended to new locations and modified to access other environmental datasets through GEE.
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162
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Anastasopoulos NA, Papalois V. How can we address the ever-pressing need to 'green up' surgical practice in the National Health Service? J R Soc Med 2022; 115:213-219. [PMID: 35502908 DOI: 10.1177/01410768221095242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Clinical practice has inadvertently changed after the COVID-19 pandemic and currently the need to provide sustainable surgical services is more pressing than ever. The National Health Service has committed to a long-term efficient plan to reduce carbon footprint but there is no detailed plan for surgical practice, the domain that contributes the most to hospital-derived pollution. A series of consecutive steps and measures ought to be taken, starting from a hybrid approach quantifying surgically attributed carbon footprint. Then, a variety of suggested measures can be widely discussed and accordingly applied on a wider or more local level. Appropriate training should always precede implementing new practices to ensure that staff is familiar with these. These measures cover a broad range and should be arranged on a patient-centred basis from preoperative preconditioning to an effective follow-up. The need for more intense research and implementation of enhanced recovery protocols is widely discussed. Also, the necessity of green research and reinvestment of materials and resources is highlighted. A change of philosophy from a cradle-to-grave approach to a repurposing approach is suggested. We are confident that a new era is dawning in surgical practice and teamwork is the key for providing greener surgical services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikolaos-Andreas Anastasopoulos
- Imperial College Renal and Transplant Centre, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Hammersmith Hospital, London, W12 0HS, UK.,Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, 45 110, Greece
| | - Vassilios Papalois
- Imperial College Renal and Transplant Centre, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Hammersmith Hospital, London, W12 0HS, UK.,Department of Surgery and Cancer, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
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163
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Siqin Z, Niu D, Li M, Zhen H, Yang X. Carbon dioxide emissions, urbanization level, and industrial structure: empirical evidence from North China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:34528-34545. [PMID: 35038097 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-17373-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2021] [Accepted: 11/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
This paper aims to examine the nexus among carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, urbanization level and industrial structure in North China over the period 2004-2019, according to an expanded Cobb-Douglas production function. The panel econometric techniques are employed to complete the empirical analysis, including cross-sectional correlation test, panel unit root test, panel co-integration test, and panel Granger causality test. The empirical results support the long-term equilibrium relationship among CO2 emissions, urbanization level and industrial structure in North China, and the urbanization level contributes most to CO2 emissions, followed by fossil energy consumption. Furthermore, the bidirectional causality between CO2 emissions and urbanization level and unidirectional causality from industrial structure to CO2 emissions are found in North China, indicating that urbanization level and industrial structure have significant impacts on CO2 emissions. Finally, according to the empirical findings, several policy suggestions are proposed for the purpose of reducing CO2 emissions in North China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhuoya Siqin
- School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Dongxiao Niu
- School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China.
| | - Mingyu Li
- School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Hao Zhen
- School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Xiaolong Yang
- School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
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164
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Wu Y, Li S, Zhao Q, Wen B, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Nunes B, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Pan SC, Íñiguez C, Ameling C, De la Cruz Valencia C, Åström C, Houthuijs D, Van Dung D, Royé D, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, de'Donato F, Rao S, Sera F, Carrasco-Escobar G, Kan H, Orru H, Kim H, Holobaca IH, Kyselý J, Madureira J, Schwartz J, Jaakkola JJK, Katsouyanni K, Hurtado Diaz M, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho M, Ortega NV, Ryti N, Scovronick N, Michelozzi P, Correa PM, Goodman P, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Abrutzky R, Osorio S, Dang TN, Colistro V, Huber V, Lee W, Seposo X, Honda Y, Guo YL, Bell ML, Guo Y. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e410-e421. [PMID: 35550080 PMCID: PMC9177161 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00073-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Revised: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 03/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Bo Wen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, Moldova
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | | | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | | | | | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Alexander von Humboldt", Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | | | | | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
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165
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Mortality Burden of Heatwaves in Sydney, Australia Is Exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island and Climate Change: Can Tree Cover Help Mitigate the Health Impacts? ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13050714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
Heatwaves are associated with increased mortality and are exacerbated by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Thus, to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation, we quantified the mortality burden of historical heatwave days in Sydney, Australia, assessed the contribution of the UHI effect and used climate change projection data to estimate future health impacts. We also assessed the potential for tree cover to mitigate against the UHI effect. Mortality (2006–2018) records were linked with census population data, weather observations (1997–2016) and climate change projections to 2100. Heatwave-attributable excess deaths were calculated based on risk estimates from a published heatwave study of Sydney. High resolution satellite observations of UHI air temperature excesses and green cover were used to determine associated effects on heat-related mortality. These data show that >90% of heatwave days would not breach heatwave thresholds in Sydney if there were no UHI effect and that numbers of heatwave days could increase fourfold under the most extreme climate change scenario. We found that tree canopy reduces urban heat, and that widespread tree planting could offset the increases in heat-attributable deaths as climate warming progresses.
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166
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Projecting the Impacts of a Changing Climate: Tropical Cyclones and Flooding. Curr Environ Health Rep 2022; 9:244-262. [PMID: 35403997 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-022-00340-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW There is clear evidence that the earth's climate is changing, largely from anthropogenic causes. Flooding and tropical cyclones have clear impacts on human health in the United States at present, and projections of their health impacts in the future will help inform climate policy, yet to date there have been few quantitative climate health impact projections. RECENT FINDINGS Despite a wealth of studies characterizing health impacts of floods and tropical cyclones, many are better suited for qualitative, rather than quantitative, projections of climate change health impacts. However, a growing number have features that will facilitate their use in quantitative projections, features we highlight here. Further, while it can be difficult to project how exposures to flood and tropical cyclone hazards will change in the future, climate science continues to advance in its capabilities to capture changes in these exposures, including capturing regional variation. Developments in climate epidemiology and climate science are opening new possibilities in projecting the health impacts of floods and tropical cyclones under a changing climate.
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167
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Mistry MN, Schneider R, Masselot P, Royé D, Armstrong B, Kyselý J, Orru H, Sera F, Tong S, Lavigne É, Urban A, Madureira J, García-León D, Ibarreta D, Ciscar JC, Feyen L, de Schrijver E, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Pascal M, Tobias A, Guo Y, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Gasparrini A. Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality. Sci Rep 2022; 12:5178. [PMID: 35338191 PMCID: PMC8956721 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09049-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malcolm N Mistry
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy.
| | - Rochelle Schneider
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,The Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK.,Ф-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.,CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,The Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.,Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications 'G. Parenti', University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.,School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.,School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.,Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Éric Lavigne
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.,School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.,Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- Department of Environmental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal.,EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - David García-León
- The Joint Research Center (JRC), European Commission, Seville, Spain
| | - Dolores Ibarreta
- The Joint Research Center (JRC), European Commission, Seville, Spain
| | | | - Luc Feyen
- The Joint Research Center (JRC), European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Evan de Schrijver
- Graduate School of Health Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain.,School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | | | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.,Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,The Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
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168
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Demoury C, Aerts R, Vandeninden B, Van Schaeybroeck B, De Clercq EM. Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19073763. [PMID: 35409447 PMCID: PMC8997565 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19073763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Revised: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 03/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
In light of climate change, health risks are expected to be exacerbated by more frequent high temperatures and reduced by less frequent cold extremes. To assess the impact of different climate change scenarios, it is necessary to describe the current effects of temperature on health. A time-stratified case-crossover design fitted with conditional quasi-Poisson regressions and distributed lag non-linear models was applied to estimate specific temperature-mortality associations in nine urban agglomerations in Belgium, and a random-effect meta-analysis was conducted to pool the estimates. Based on 307,859 all-cause natural deaths, the mortality risk associated to low temperature was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.21-1.44) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08-1.36) for high temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature (23.1 °C). Both cold and heat were associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. We observed differences in risk by age category, and women were more vulnerable to heat than men. People living in the most built-up municipalities were at higher risk for heat. Air pollutants did not have a confounding effect. Evidence from this study helps to identify specific populations at risk and is important for current and future public health interventions and prevention strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claire Demoury
- Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium; (R.A.); (B.V.); (E.M.D.C.)
- Correspondence:
| | - Raf Aerts
- Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium; (R.A.); (B.V.); (E.M.D.C.)
- Division Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), 3001 Leuven, Belgium
- Center for Environmental Sciences, University of Hasselt, 3590 Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Bram Vandeninden
- Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium; (R.A.); (B.V.); (E.M.D.C.)
| | - Bert Van Schaeybroeck
- Department of Meteorological Research and Development, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, 1180 Brussels, Belgium;
| | - Eva M. De Clercq
- Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium; (R.A.); (B.V.); (E.M.D.C.)
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169
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Dominant Factors and Spatial Heterogeneity of Land Surface Temperatures in Urban Areas: A Case Study in Fuzhou, China. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14051266] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon caused by rapid urbanization has become an important global ecological and environmental problem that cannot be ignored. In this study, the UHI effect was quantified using Landsat 8 image inversion land surface temperatures (LSTs). With the spatial scale of street units in Fuzhou City, China, using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models, and multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), we explored the spatial heterogeneities of the influencing factors and LST. The results indicated that, compared with traditional OLS models, GWR improved the model fit by considering spatial heterogeneity, whereas MGWR outperformed OLS and GWR in terms of goodness of fit by considering the effects of different bandwidths on LST. Building density (BD), normalized difference impervious surface index (NDISI), and the sky view factor (SVF) were important influences on elevated LST, while building height (BH), forest land percentage (Forest_per), and waterbody percentage (Water_per) were negatively correlated with LST. In addition, built-up percentage (Built_per) and population density (Pop_Den) showed significant spatial non-stationary characteristics. These findings suggest the need to consider spatial heterogeneity in analyses of impact factors. This study can be used to provide guidance on mitigation strategies for UHIs in different regions.
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170
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de Schrijver E, Bundo M, Ragettli MS, Sera F, Gasparrini A, Franco OH, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Nationwide Analysis of the Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: The Role of Population Aging. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2022; 130:37001. [PMID: 35262415 PMCID: PMC8906252 DOI: 10.1289/ehp9835] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2022] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Because older adults are particularly vulnerable to nonoptimal temperatures, it is expected that the progressive population aging will amplify the health burden attributable to heat and cold due to climate change in future decades. However, limited evidence exists on the contribution of population aging on historical temperature-mortality trends. OBJECTIVES We aimed to a) assess trends in heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017 and b) to quantify the contribution of population aging to the observed patterns. METHODS We collected daily time series of all-cause mortality by age group (<65, 65-79, and 80 y and older) and mean temperature for each Swiss municipality (1969-2017). We performed a two-stage time-series analysis with distributed lag nonlinear models and multivariate longitudinal meta-regression to obtain temperature-mortality associations by canton, decade, and age group. We then calculated the corresponding excess mortality attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and compared it to the estimates obtained in a hypothetical scenario of no population aging. RESULTS Between 1969 and 2017, heat- and cold-related mortality represented 0.28% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.18, 0.37] and 8.91% (95% CI: 7.46, 10.21) of total mortality, which corresponded to 2.4 and 77 deaths per 100,000 people annually, respectively. Although mortality rates for heat slightly increased over time, annual number of deaths substantially raised up from 74 (12;125) to 181 (39;307) between 1969-78 and 2009-17, mostly driven by the ≥80-y-old age group. Cold-related mortality rates decreased across all ages, but annual cold-related deaths still increased among the ≥80, due to the increase in the population at risk. We estimated that heat- and cold-related deaths would have been 52.7% and 44.6% lower, respectively, in the most recent decade in the absence of population aging. DISCUSSION Our findings suggest that a substantial proportion of historical temperature-related impacts can be attributed to population aging. We found that population aging has attenuated the decrease in cold-related mortality and amplified heat-related mortality. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9835.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan de Schrijver
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate school of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Marvin Bundo
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate school of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Informatics, Applications, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Oscar H. Franco
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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171
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Edwards CM, Suliman AAA, Taylor-Robinson S, Corrah T. Rebalancing the research equation in Africa: principles and process. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e049781. [PMID: 35193900 PMCID: PMC8882655 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049781] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2021] [Accepted: 01/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many examples of research excellence in Africa have been driven by partnerships led by the global North and have involved localised infrastructure improvements to support the best of international research practice. OBJECTIVE In this article, we explore a possible mechanism by which local research networks, appropriately governed, could begin to support national African research programmes by allying research delivery to clinical service. SUMMARY This article explores the concept that sustainable research effort needs a well-trained and mentored workforce, working to common standards, but which is practically supported by a much developed information technology (IT) infrastructure throughout the continent. CONCLUSIONS The balance of investment and ownership of such a research programme needs to be shared between local and international funding, with the emphasis on developing global South-South collaborations and research strategies which address the environmental impact of medical research activity and mitigate the impact of climate change on African populations. Healthcare must be embedded in the post-COVID-19 approach to research development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cathryn M Edwards
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Torbay Hospital, Torquay, UK
- Department of Medicine, Plymouth University Peninsula School of Medicine, Plymouth, UK
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Zeppetello LRV, Cook-Patton SC, Parsons LA, Wolff NH, Kroeger T, Battisti DS, Bettles J, Spector JT, Balakumar A, Masuda YJ. Consistent cooling benefits of silvopasture in the tropics. Nat Commun 2022; 13:708. [PMID: 35121752 PMCID: PMC8816911 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28388-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Agroforestry systems have the potential to sequester carbon and offer numerous benefits to rural communities, but their capacity to offer valuable cooling services has not been quantified on continental scales. Here, we find that trees in pasturelands ("silvopasture") across Latin America and Africa can offer substantial cooling benefits. These cooling benefits increase linearly by -0.32 °C to -2.4 °C per 10 metric tons of woody carbon per hectare, and importantly do not depend on the spatial extent of the silvopasture systems. Thus, even smallholders can reap important cooling services from intensifying their silvopasture practices. We then map where realistic (but ambitious) silvopasture expansion could counteract a substantial fraction of the local projected warming in 2050 due to climate change. Our findings indicate where and to what extent silvopasture systems can counteract local temperature increases from global climate change and help vulnerable communities adapt to a warming world.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Susan C Cook-Patton
- Natural Climate Solutions, The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 100, Arlington, VA, 22203, USA
| | - Luke A Parsons
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Nicholas H Wolff
- Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 100, Arlington, VA, 22203, USA
| | - Timm Kroeger
- Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 100, Arlington, VA, 22203, USA
| | - David S Battisti
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Joseph Bettles
- School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, #0519, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - June T Spector
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Washington, USA
| | - Arjun Balakumar
- Stony Brook University Hospital, 101 Nicolls Rd, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, USA
| | - Yuta J Masuda
- Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 100, Arlington, VA, 22203, USA.
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Yu Y, Luo S, Zhang Y, Liu L, Wang K, Hong L, Wang Q. Comparative analysis of daily and hourly temperature variability in association with all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in 45 US cities. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:11625-11633. [PMID: 34537946 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-16476-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Accepted: 09/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Temperature variability (TV) has been widely associated with increased mortality risk and burden. Extensive researches have used the standard deviations of several days' daily maximum and minimum temperatures or hourly mean temperatures as daily and hourly TV measures (TVdaily and TVhourly). However, comparative analysis of daily and hourly TV related to cardiorespiratory mortality is still limited. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 45 US metropolises, 1987-2000. A three-stage analysis was adopted to investigate TV-mortality associations using TVdaily and TVhourly as exposure metrics. We first applied a time-series quasi-Poisson regression to estimate location-specific TV-mortality relationships, which were then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis with maximum likelihood estimation. We additionally calculated attributable fraction (AF) as a reflection of mortality burden associated with TV. Stratified analyses by age were also performed to identify the susceptible group to TV-related risks. There were a total of 15.4 million all-cause deaths, of which 6.1 million were from cardiovascular causes and 1.2 million were from respiratory causes. Per 1 °C increase in TVdaily and TVhourly was associated with an increase of 0.53% (95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.76%) and 0.52% (0.26-0.79%) in cardiovascular mortality risks, 0.62% (0.26-0.98%) and 0.53% (0.13-0.94%) in respiratory mortality risks. Estimates of cardiovascular AF for TVdaily and TVhourly were 2.43% (1.42-3.43%) vs. 1.63% (0.82-2.43%), whereas estimates of respiratory AF were 3.07% (1.11-4.99%) vs. 1.89% (0.43-3.34%). Both daily and hourly TV indexes showed approximately linear relationships with different mortality categories and similar lag patterns, but greater fractions were estimated using TVdaily than those using TVhourly. People over 75 years old were relatively more vulnerable to TV-induced risks of mortality. In conclusion, both TVdaily and TVhourly significantly increased all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality risks and burden. Daily and hourly TV metrics exhibited comparable effects of mortality risk, while greater mortality burden was estimated using TVdaily than TVhourly. Our findings may add significance to TV-mortality research and help to promote optimal health management strategies to better mitigate TV-related health effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong Yu
- School of Public Health, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, China
| | - Siqi Luo
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Linjiong Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Ke Wang
- Department of Nursing, Medical College, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Le Hong
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Qun Wang
- School of Public Health, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, China.
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Chua PL, Ng CFS, Madaniyazi L, Seposo X, Salazar MA, Huber V, Hashizume M. Projecting Temperature-Attributable Mortality and Hospital Admissions due to Enteric Infections in the Philippines. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2022; 130:27011. [PMID: 35188405 PMCID: PMC8860302 DOI: 10.1289/ehp9324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Revised: 10/29/2021] [Accepted: 01/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Enteric infections cause significant deaths, and global projection studies suggest that mortality from enteric infections will increase in the future with warmer climate. However, a major limitation of these projection studies is the use of risk estimates derived from nonmortality data to project excess enteric infection mortality associated with temperature because of the lack of studies that used actual deaths. OBJECTIVE We quantified the associations of daily temperature with both mortality and hospital admissions due to enteric infections in the Philippines. These associations were applied to projections under various climate and population change scenarios. METHODS We modeled nonlinear temperature associations of mortality and hospital admissions due to enteric infections in 17 administrative regions of the Philippines using a two-stage time-series approach. First, we quantified nonlinear temperature associations of enteric infections by fitting generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models. Second, we combined regional estimates using a meta-regression model. We projected the excess future enteric infections due to nonoptimal temperatures using regional temperature-enteric infection associations under various combinations of climate change scenarios according to representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and population change scenarios according to shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for 2010-2099. RESULTS Regional estimates for mortality and hospital admissions were significantly heterogeneous and had varying shapes in association with temperature. Generally, mortality risks were greater in high temperatures, whereas hospital admission risks were greater in low temperatures. Temperature-attributable excess deaths in 2090-2099 were projected to increase over 2010-2019 by as little as 1.3% [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -3.1%, 6.5%] under a low greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 2.6) or as much as 25.5% (95% eCI: -3.5%, 48.2%) under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). A moderate increase was projected for temperature-attributable excess hospital admissions, from 0.02% (95% eCI: -2.0%, 1.9%) under RCP 2.6 to 5.2% (95% eCI: -12.7%, 21.8%) under RCP 8.5 in the same period. High temperature-attributable deaths and hospital admissions due to enteric infections may occur under scenarios with high population growth in 2090-2099. DISCUSSION In the Philippines, futures with hotter temperatures and high population growth may lead to a greater increase in temperature-related excess deaths than hospital admissions due to enteric infections. Our results highlight the need to strengthen existing primary health care interventions for diarrhea and support health adaptation policies to help reduce future enteric infections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9324.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul L.C. Chua
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc., Quezon City, Philippines
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Lina Madaniyazi
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Miguel Antonio Salazar
- Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc., Quezon City, Philippines
- Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Veronika Huber
- Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
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175
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Schinasi LH, Kanungo C, Christman Z, Barber S, Tabb L, Headen I. Associations Between Historical Redlining and Present-Day Heat Vulnerability Housing and Land Cover Characteristics in Philadelphia, PA. J Urban Health 2022; 99:134-145. [PMID: 35076872 PMCID: PMC8866576 DOI: 10.1007/s11524-021-00602-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/03/2021] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
Historical, institutional racism within the housing market may have impacted present-day disparities in heat vulnerability. We quantified associations between historically redlined areas with present-day property and housing characteristics that may enhance heat vulnerability in Philadelphia, PA. We used color-coded Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) maps and tax assessment data to randomly select 100 present-day (2018-2019) residential properties in each HOLC grade area (A = Best; B, C, and D = Most hazardous; N = 400 total). We conducted virtual inventories of the properties using aerial and streetview imagery for land cover and housing characteristics (dark roof color, flat roof shape, low or no mature tree canopy, no recently planted street trees) that may enhance heat vulnerability. We used modified Poisson regression models to estimate associations of HOLC grades with the property characteristics, unadjusted and adjusted for historical and contemporary measures of the neighborhood sociodemographic environment. Compared to grade A areas, higher proportions of properties in grade B, C, and D areas had dark roofs, low/no mature tree canopy, and no street trees. Adjusting for historical sociodemographics attenuated associations, with only associations with low or no tree canopy remaining elevated. Adjusting for present-day concentrated racial and socioeconomic deprivation did not substantially impact overall findings. In Philadelphia, PA, HOLC maps serve as spatial representations of present-day housing and land cover heat vulnerability characteristics. Further analyses incorporating longitudinal data on urban redevelopment, reinvestment, and neighborhood change are needed to more fully represent complex relationships among historical racism, residential segregation, and heat vulnerability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leah H Schinasi
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, 3215 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
- Dornsife School of Public Health, Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
| | - Chahita Kanungo
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, 3215 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA
- Dornsife School of Public Health, Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Zachary Christman
- Department of Geography, Planning, and Sustainability, School of Earth and Environment, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ, USA
| | - Sharrelle Barber
- Dornsife School of Public Health, Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Loni Tabb
- Dornsife School of Public Health, Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Irene Headen
- Dornsife School of Public Health, Urban Health Collaborative, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- Department of Community Health and Prevention, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
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176
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van den Bosch M, Basagaña X, Mudu P, Kendrovski V, Maitre L, Hjertager Krog N, Aasvang GM, Grazuleviciene R, McEachan R, Vrijheid M, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ. Green CURIOCITY: a study protocol for a European birth cohort study analysing childhood heat-related health impacts and protective effects of urban natural environments. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e052537. [PMID: 35074814 PMCID: PMC8788192 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Accepted: 01/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The European climate is getting warmer and the impact on childhood health and development is insufficiently understood. Equally, how heat-related health risks can be reduced through nature-based solutions, such as exposure to urban natural environments, is unknown. Green CURe In Outdoor CITY spaces (Green CURIOCITY) will analyse how heat exposure during pregnancy affects birth outcomes and how long-term heat exposure may influence children's neurodevelopment. We will also investigate if adverse effects can be mitigated by urban natural environments. A final goal is to visualise intraurban patterns of heat vulnerability and assist planning towards healthier cities. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We will use existing data from the Human Early-Life Exposure cohort, which includes information on birth outcomes and neurodevelopment from six European birth cohorts. The cohort is linked to data on prenatal heat exposure and impact on birth outcomes will be analysed with logistic regression models, adjusting for air pollution and noise and sociobehavioural covariates. Similarly, impact of cumulative and immediate heat exposure on neurodevelopmental outcomes at age 5 will be assessed. For both analyses, the potentially moderating impact of natural environments will be quantified. For visualisation, Geographical information systems data will be combined to develop vulnerability maps, demonstrating urban 'hot spots' where the risk of negative impacts of heat is aggravated due to sociodemographic and land use patterns. Finally, geospatial and meteorological data will be used for informing GreenUr, an existing software prototype developed by the WHO Regional Office for Europe to quantify health impacts and augment policy tools for urban green space planning. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The protocol was approved by the Comité Ético de Investigación Clínica Parc de Salut MAR, Spain. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at policy events. Through stakeholder engagement, the results will also reach user groups and practitioners.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matilda van den Bosch
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Xavier Basagaña
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Pierpaolo Mudu
- World Health Organization European Centre for Environment and Health, Bonn, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany
| | - Vladimir Kendrovski
- World Health Organization European Centre for Environment and Health, Bonn, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany
| | - Léa Maitre
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Gunn Marit Aasvang
- Air Quality and Noise, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Regina Grazuleviciene
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Vytauto Didziojo Universitetas, Kaunas, Lithuania
| | | | - Martine Vrijheid
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Mark J Nieuwenhuijsen
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
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The Impact of Climate Change on Primary Air Treatment Processes and Energy Demand in Air Conditioning Systems—A Case Study from Warsaw, Poland. ENERGIES 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/en15010355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
This article presents the impact of climate change on air treatment processes and energy demand in a selected air-conditioning system. The analysis was performed for a system supplying rooms with pre-treated primary air. Further treatment occurred directly in the rooms with individual devices such as fan coils or chilled beams. The analysis of the second stage of air treatment was not part of this study. The calculations were made for the city of Warsaw, where, according to the climate analysis for the period 1961–2020, an increase in outside temperature by 0.4 °C per decade and an increase in air humidity by 0.2 g/kg per decade were observed. The system analysis was divided into two stages. The first, including calculations made for monthly average climate data for the entire period of 1961–2020, shows changes in the energy demand of the system, resulting from progressive climate change. This analysis confirmed the general tendency of increasing demand for cooling energy and decreasing demand for heating energy, which is also observed in many other regions of the world. The second stage, based on calculations for hourly climate data in selected years, is an analysis of the operation of all elements of the system equipment. Research has identified areas that will have an increasing impact on the energy efficiency of the whole air condition system during further climate change.
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178
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Zhang F, Wu C, Zhang M, Zhang H, Feng H, Zhu W. The association between diurnal temperature range and clinic visits for upper respiratory tract infection among college students in Wuhan, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:2287-2297. [PMID: 34363175 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15777-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The effects of daily mean temperature on health outcomes have been discussed in many previous studies, but few have considered the adverse impacts on upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) due to variance of temperature in one day. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) was a novel indicator calculated as maximum temperature minus minimum temperature on the same day. In this study, generalized additive model (GAM) with quasi-Poisson distribution was used to investigate the association between DTR and the number of daily outpatient visits for URTI among college students. Data about meteorological factors and air pollutants were provided by Hubei Meteorological Bureau and Wuhan Environmental Protection Bureau, respectively. Outpatient visits data were collected from the Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2018. Short-term exposure to DTR was associated with the increased risk of outpatient for URTI among all college students. Per 1 °C increased in DTR was associated with 0.73% (95%CI: 0.24, 1.21) increased in outpatient visits of all college students for URTI at lag 0 day. The greatest effect values were observed in males [1.35% (95%CI: 0.33,2.39)] at lag 0-6 days, and in females [0.86% (95%CI: 0.24, 1.49)] at lag 0-1 days. DTR had more adverse health impact in autumn and winter. Public health departments should consider the negative effect of DTR to formulate more effective prevention and control measures for protecting vulnerable people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Faxue Zhang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Chuangxin Wu
- Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Miaoxuan Zhang
- Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, Hubei, China
| | - Han Zhang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Huan Feng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Wei Zhu
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China.
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Tong S, Bambrick H, Beggs PJ, Chen L, Hu Y, Ma W, Steffen W, Tan J. Current and future threats to human health in the Anthropocene. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2022; 158:106892. [PMID: 34583096 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2021] [Revised: 09/19/2021] [Accepted: 09/21/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
It has been widely recognised that the threats to human health from global environmental changes (GECs) are increasing in the Anthropocene epoch, and urgent actions are required to tackle these pressing challenges. A scoping review was conducted to provide an overview of the nine planetary boundaries and the threats to population health posed by human activities that are exceeding these boundaries in the Anthropocene. The research progress and key knowledge gaps were identified in this emerging field. Over the past three decades, there has been a great deal of research progress on health risks from climate change, land-use change and urbanisation, biodiversity loss and other GECs. However, several significant challenges remain, including the misperception of the relationship between human and nature; assessment of the compounding risks of GECs; strategies to reduce and prevent the potential health impacts of GECs; and uncertainties in fulfilling the commitments to the Paris Agreement. Confronting these challenges will require rigorous scientific research that is well-coordinated across different disciplines and various sectors. It is imperative for the international community to work together to develop informed policies to avert crises and ensure a safe and sustainable planet for the present and future generations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Paul J Beggs
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
| | | | - Yabin Hu
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Will Steffen
- The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Jianguo Tan
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, China
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180
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Sinha P, Coville RC, Hirabayashi S, Lim B, Endreny TA, Nowak DJ. Variation in estimates of heat-related mortality reduction due to tree cover in U.S. cities. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 301:113751. [PMID: 34628283 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2021] [Revised: 08/10/2021] [Accepted: 09/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Heat-related mortality is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States. With changing climates and an aging population, effective adaptive strategies to address public health and environmental justice issues associated with extreme heat will be increasingly important. One effective adaptive strategy for reducing heat-related mortality is increasing tree cover. Designing such a strategy requires decision-support tools that provide spatial and temporal information about impacts. We apply such a tool to estimate spatially and temporally explicit reductions in temperature and mortality associated with a 10% increase in tree cover in 10 U.S. cities with varying climatic, demographic, and land cover conditions. Two heat metrics were applied to represent tree impacts on moderately and extremely hot days (relative to historical conditions). Increasing tree cover by 10% reduced estimated heat-related mortality in cities significantly, with total impacts generally greatest in the most populated cities. Mortality reductions vary widely across cities, ranging from approximately 50 fewer deaths in Salt Lake City to about 3800 fewer deaths in New York City. This variation is due to differences in demographics, land cover, and local climatic conditions. In terms of per capita estimated impacts, hotter and drier cities experience higher percentage reductions in mortality due to increased tree cover across the season. Phoenix potentially benefits the most from increased tree cover, with an estimated 22% reduction in mortality from baseline levels. In cooler cities such as Minneapolis, trees can reduce mortality significantly on days that are extremely hot relative to historical conditions and therefore help mitigate impacts during heat wave conditions. Recent studies project highest increases in heat-related mortality in the cooler cities, so our findings have important implications for adaptation planning. Our estimated spatial and temporal distributions of mortality reductions for each city provide crucial information needed for promoting environmental justice and equity. More broadly, the methods and model can be applied by both urban planners and the public health community for designing targeted, effective policies to reduce heat-related mortality. Additionally, land use managers can use this information to optimize tree plantings. Public stakeholders can also use these impact estimates for advocacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paramita Sinha
- RTI International, 3040 E. Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709, USA.
| | - Robert C Coville
- USDA Forest Service, Davey Institute, Davey Tree Expert Company, 5 Moon Library, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA
| | - Satoshi Hirabayashi
- USDA Forest Service, Davey Institute, Davey Tree Expert Company, 5 Moon Library, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA
| | - Brian Lim
- RTI International, 3040 E. Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709, USA
| | - Theodore A Endreny
- Department of Environmental Resources Engineering, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA
| | - David J Nowak
- USDA Forest Service, 5 Moon Library, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA
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181
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Phanprasit W, Konthonbut P, Laohaudomchok W, Tangtong C, Ikäheimo TM, Jaakkola JJK, Näyhä S. Workplace Cold and Perceived Work Ability: Paradoxically Greater Disadvantage for More vs. Less-Educated Poultry Industry Workers in Thailand. Front Public Health 2021; 9:762533. [PMID: 34926385 PMCID: PMC8673379 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.762533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2021] [Accepted: 10/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The association between worksite temperature and perceived work ability (WA) in various educational classes remains unknown. Therefore, we interviewed 286 poultry industry workers in Thailand about their WA and linked their responses to worksite temperature. WA was based on the self-assessment of current work ability compared with their lifetime best ability (scores 0-10). Education was classified as high (university or vocational school) or low (less education). Temperature was classified as cold (-22-10°C) or warm (10-23°C). WA and the occurrence of a low WA were regressed on worksite temperature, education, and their interaction with the adjustment for sex, age, job category, physical work strain, moving between cold and warm sites, thermal insulation of clothing, relative humidity, and air velocity. The average worksite temperature was 10°C for high- and 1°C for low-educated workers. The average WA score was 8.32 (SD, 1.33; range, 4-10) and classified as low (<8) in 23% of the workers. In highly-educated workers, the adjusted mean WA decreased from 9.11 in the warm areas to 8.02 in the cold areas and the prevalence of a low WA increased from 11 to 30%, while no significant change was observed in less-educated workers. The WA score was estimated to decline by 10% more (95% CI, 4-16%) in the cold areas for the more vs. less-educated workers and the prevalence of a poor WA was estimated to increase 3.09 times (95% CI, 1.43-5.45) more. Highly-educated workers in this industry are a risk group that should be given customized advice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wantanee Phanprasit
- Department of Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Pajaree Konthonbut
- Department of Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Wisanti Laohaudomchok
- Department of Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Chaiyanun Tangtong
- Department of Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Tiina M Ikäheimo
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.,Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Simo Näyhä
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
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182
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Wolff NH, Zeppetello LRV, Parsons LA, Aggraeni I, Battisti DS, Ebi KL, Game ET, Kroeger T, Masuda YJ, Spector JT. The effect of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in Berau, Indonesia: a modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e882-e892. [PMID: 34774222 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00279-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2019] [Revised: 09/19/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies focusing on urban, industrialised regions have found that excess heat exposure can increase all-cause mortality, heat-related illnesses, and occupational injuries. However, little research has examined how deforestation and climate change can adversely affect work conditions and population health in low latitude, industrialising countries. METHODS For this modelling study we used data at 1 km2 resolution to compare forest cover and temperature conditions in the Berau regency, Indonesia, between 2002 and 2018. We used spatially explicit satellite, climate model, and population data to estimate the effects of global warming, between 2002 and 2018 and after applying 1·0°C, 1·5°C, and 2·0°C of global warming to 2018 temperatures, on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions in the Berau regency, Indonesia. FINDINGS Between 2002 and 2018, 4375 km2 of forested land in Berau was cleared, corresponding to approximately 17% of the entire regency. Deforestation increased mean daily maximum temperatures by 0·95°C (95% CI 0·97-0·92; p<0·0001). Mean daily temperatures increased by a population-weighted 0·86°C, accounting for an estimated 7·3-8·5% of all-cause mortality (or 101-118 additional deaths per year) in 2018. Unsafe work time increased by 0·31 h per day (95% CI 0·30-0·32; p<0·0001) in deforested areas compared to 0·03 h per day (0·03-0·04; p<0·0001) in areas that maintained forest cover. With 2·0°C of additional future global warming, relative to 2018, deforested areas could experience an estimated 17-20% increase in all-cause mortality (corresponding to an additional 236-282 deaths per year) and up to 5 h of unsafe work per day. INTERPRETATION Heat exposure from deforestation and climate change has already started affecting populations in low latitude, industrialising countries, and future global warming indicates substantial health impacts in these regions. Further research should examine how deforestation is currently affecting the health and wellbeing of local communities. FUNDING University of Washington Population Health Initiative. TRANSLATION For the Bahasa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Luke A Parsons
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Ike Aggraeni
- Faculty of Public Health, Mulawarman University, Samarinda, Indonesia
| | - David S Battisti
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | - Yuta J Masuda
- Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA.
| | - June T Spector
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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183
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Extreme Heat and Cardiovascular Health: What a Cardiovascular Health Professional Should Know. Can J Cardiol 2021; 37:1828-1836. [PMID: 34802857 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjca.2021.08.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2021] [Revised: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/09/2021] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
As global temperatures continue to rise, extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense. Extreme heat affects cardiovascular health as it is associated with a greater risk of adverse cardiovascular events, especially for adults with preexisting cardiovascular diseases. Nonetheless, the pathophysiology underlying the association between extreme heat and cardiovascular risk remains understudied. Furthermore, specific recommendations to mitigate the effects of extreme heat on cardiovascular health remain limited to guide clinical practice within the context of a warming climate. The overall objective of this review article is to raise awareness that extreme heat poses a risk for cardiovascular health. Specifically, the review discusses why cardiovascular healthcare professionals should care about extreme heat, how extreme heat affects cardiovascular health, and recommendations to minimise the cardiovascular consequences of extreme heat. Future research directions are also provided to further our understating of the cardiovascular health consequences of extreme heat. A better awareness and understanding of the cardiovascular consequences of extreme heat will help cardiovascular health professionals assess the risk and optimise the care of their patients exposed to an increasingly warm climate.
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184
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Lai ZI, Lee LQ, Li H. Electroreforming of Biomass for Value-Added Products. MICROMACHINES 2021; 12:1405. [PMID: 34832816 PMCID: PMC8619709 DOI: 10.3390/mi12111405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2021] [Revised: 11/08/2021] [Accepted: 11/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Humanity's overreliance on fossil fuels for chemical and energy production has resulted in uncontrollable carbon emissions that have warranted widespread concern regarding global warming. To address this issue, there is a growing body of research on renewable resources such as biomass, of which cellulose is the most abundant type. In particular, the electrochemical reforming of biomass is especially promising, as it allows greater control over valorization processes and requires milder conditions. Driven by renewable electricity, electroreforming of biomass can be green and sustainable. Moreover, green hydrogen generation can be coupled to anodic biomass electroforming, which has attracted ever-increasing attention. The following review is a summary of recent developments related to electroreforming cellulose and its derivatives (glucose, hydroxymethylfurfural, levulinic acid). The electroreforming of biomass can be achieved on the anode of an electrochemical cell through electrooxidation, as well as on the cathode through electroreduction. Recent advances in the anodic electroreforming of cellulose and cellulose-derived glucose and 5-hydrooxylmethoylfurural (5-HMF) are first summarized. Then, the key achievements in the cathodic electroreforming of cellulose and cellulose-derived 5-HMF and levulinic acid are discussed. Afterward, the emerging research focusing on coupling hydrogen evolution with anodic biomass reforming for the cogeneration of green hydrogen fuel and value-added chemicals is reviewed. The final chapter of this paper provides our perspective on the challenges and future research directions of biomass electroreforming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zi Iun Lai
- School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore; (Z.I.L.); (L.Q.L.)
| | - Li Quan Lee
- School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore; (Z.I.L.); (L.Q.L.)
- Advanced Environmental Biotechnology Centre, Nanyang Environment and Water Research Institute, Nanyang Technological University, 1 Cleantech Loop, Singapore 637141, Singapore
| | - Hong Li
- School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore; (Z.I.L.); (L.Q.L.)
- School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore
- CINTRA CNRS/NTU/THALES, UMI 3288, Research Techno Plaza, Singapore 637553, Singapore
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185
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Yang Z, Yang J, Zhou M, Yin P, Chen Z, Zhao Q, Hu K, Liu Q, Ou CQ. Hourly temperature variability and mortality in 31 major Chinese cities: Effect modification by individual characteristics, season and temperature zone. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2021; 156:106746. [PMID: 34247007 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2020] [Revised: 06/27/2021] [Accepted: 06/28/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the context of ongoing climate change, temperature variability (TV) has been considered as an important trigger of death. However, evidence of association between mortality and hourly temperature variability (HTV) is scarce at the multi-city level, and the time window of health effects of HTV is lack of investigation. This study aims at quantifying the mortality risk and burden of HTV and exploring subpopulations susceptible to HTV from a large-scale multi-city perspective. METHODS Data on daily number of deaths and meteorology were collected for 31 Chinese major cities during 2007-2013. HTV was calculated as the standard deviation of hourly temperature within a few days. The optimal exposure period of HTV was chosen according to multiple scientific criteria. A quasi-Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to assess the city-specific HTV-mortality associations. Then, meta-analysis was further applied to pool city-specific effect estimates. Finally, we calculated the fraction of mortality attributable to HTV. Stratification analyses were conducted by individual characteristics (i.e. age, sex, and educational attainment), season, and region. RESULTS HTV calculated in a relatively long-time window like 18 d (HTV0-17) could capture the impact of HTV adequately. Per 1 °C raise of HTV0-17 associated with 1.38% (95%CI: 0.77, 1.99) increase of non-accidental mortality. During the study period, 5.47% (95%CI: 1.06, 9.64) of non-accidental mortality could be attributed to HTV. The females, the elderly, and individuals with low education level were more susceptible to HTV than their counterparts, respectively. Moreover, a stronger HTV-mortality association was observed in individuals who live in warmer season and temperature zone. CONCLUSION HTV is associated with a considerable mortality burden, which may be modified by season, geographic and individual-level factors. Our findings highlight the practical importance of establishing early warning systems and promoting health education to mitigate the impacts of temperature variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhou Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Jun Yang
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China; Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou 511443, China; JNU-QUT Joint Laboratory for Air Quality Science and Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China.
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Zhaoyue Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Kejia Hu
- Institute of Big Data in Health Science, School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Chun-Quan Ou
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China.
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186
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Onozuka D, Tanoue Y, Nomura S, Kawashima T, Yoneoka D, Eguchi A, Ng CFS, Matsuura K, Shi S, Makiyama K, Uryu S, Kawamura Y, Takayanagi S, Gilmour S, Hayashi TI, Miyata H, Sera F, Sunagawa T, Takahashi T, Tsuchihashi Y, Kobayashi Y, Arima Y, Kanou K, Suzuki M, Hashizume M. Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design. Int J Epidemiol 2021; 51:75-84. [PMID: 34718594 PMCID: PMC8856001 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. Methods Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015–December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. Results In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of −20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): −38 367 to −5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of −1.7% (95% eCI: −3.1 to −0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70–79 years. Conclusions All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daisuke Onozuka
- Department of Medical Informatics and Clinical Epidemiology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Yuta Tanoue
- Institute for Business and Finance, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shuhei Nomura
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takayuki Kawashima
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Mathematical and Computing Science, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Daisuke Yoneoka
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.,Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Akifumi Eguchi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Sustainable Health Science, Center for Preventive Medical Sciences, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Kentaro Matsuura
- Department of Management Science, Graduate School of Engineering, Tokyo University of Science, Tokyo, Japan.,HOXO-M Inc., Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shoi Shi
- Department of Systems Pharmacology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.,Laboratory for Synthetic Biology, RIKEN Center for Biosystems Dynamics Research, Osaka, Japan
| | | | - Shinya Uryu
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yumi Kawamura
- RIKEN Center for Sustainable Resource Science, Saitama, Japan
| | | | - Stuart Gilmour
- Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takehiko I Hayashi
- Center for Health and Environmental Risk Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Hiroaki Miyata
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications 'G. Parenti', University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Tomimasa Sunagawa
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takuri Takahashi
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuuki Tsuchihashi
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yusuke Kobayashi
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuzo Arima
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kazuhiko Kanou
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Motoi Suzuki
- Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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187
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Impact of heat waves and cold spells on cause-specific mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2021; 239:113861. [PMID: 34688108 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2021.113861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Revised: 09/30/2021] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality has become a major public health problem worldwide, especially among older adults living in low-to middle-income countries. This study aimed to investigate the effects of heat waves and cold spells under different definitions on cause-specific mortality among people aged ≥65 years in São Paulo from 2006 to 2015. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model with a distributed lag model was used to investigate the association between cause-specific mortality and extreme air temperature events. To evaluate the effects of the intensity under different durations, we considered twelve heat wave and nine cold spell definitions. Our results showed an increase in cause-specific deaths related to heat waves and cold spells under several definitions. The highest risk of death related to heat waves was identified mostly at higher temperature thresholds with longer events. We verified that men were more vulnerable to die from cerebrovascular diseases and ischemic stroke on cold spells and heat waves days than women, while women presented a higher risk of dying from ischemic heart diseases during cold spells and tended to have a higher risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease than men during heat waves. Identification of heat wave- and cold spell-related mortality is important for the development and promotion of public health measures.
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188
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Taylor J, Symonds P, Heaviside C, Chalabi Z, Davies M, Wilkinson P. Projecting the impacts of housing on temperature-related mortality in London during typical future years. ENERGY AND BUILDINGS 2021; 249:None. [PMID: 34819713 PMCID: PMC8593871 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.111233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2020] [Revised: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change means the UK will experience warmer winters and hotter summers in the future. Concurrent energy efficiency improvements to housing may modify indoor exposures to heat or cold, while population aging may increase susceptibility to temperature-related mortality. We estimate heat and cold mortality and energy consumption in London for typical (non-extreme) future climates, given projected changes in population and housing. Building physics models are used to simulate summertime and wintertime indoor temperatures and space heating energy consumption of London dwellings for 'baseline' (2005-2014) and future (2030s, 2050s) periods using data from the English Housing Survey, historical weather data, and projected future weather data with temperatures representative of 'typical' years. Linking to population projections, we calculate future heat and cold attributable mortality and energy consumption with demolition, construction, and alternative scenarios of energy efficiency retrofit. At current retrofit rates, around 168-174 annual cold-related deaths per million population would typically be avoided by the 2050s, or 261-269 deaths per million under ambitious retrofit rates. Annual heat deaths would typically increase by 1 per million per year under the current retrofit rate, and 12-13 per million under ambitious rates without population adaptation to heat. During typical future summers, an estimated 38-73% of heat-related deaths can be avoided using external shutters on windows, with their effectiveness lower during hotter weather. Despite warmer winters, ambitious retrofit rates are necessary to reduce typical annual energy consumption for heating below baseline levels, assuming no improvement in heating system efficiencies. Concerns over future overheating in energy efficient housing are valid but increases in heat attributable mortality during typical and hot (but not extreme) summers are more than offset by significant reductions in cold mortality and easily mitigated using passive measures. More ambitious retrofit rates are critical to reduce energy consumption and offer co-benefits for reducing cold-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Phil Symonds
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Zaid Chalabi
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mike Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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189
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Krummenauer L, Costa L, Prahl BF, Kropp JP. Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won't save us. Sci Rep 2021; 11:20309. [PMID: 34645902 PMCID: PMC8514539 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99757-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
When inferring on the magnitude of future heat-related mortality due to climate change, human adaptation to heat should be accounted for. We model long-term changes in minimum mortality temperatures (MMT), a well-established metric denoting the lowest risk of heat-related mortality, as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress across 3820 cities. Depending on the combination of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways evaluated, by 2100 the risk to human health is expected to decline in 60% to 80% of the cities against contemporary conditions. This is caused by an average global increase in MMTs driven by long-term human acclimatisation to future climatic conditions and economic development of countries. While our adaptation model suggests that negative effects on health from global warming can broadly be kept in check, the trade-offs are highly contingent to the scenario path and location-specific. For high-forcing climate scenarios (e.g. RCP8.5) the maintenance of uninterrupted high economic growth by 2100 is a hard requirement to increase MMTs and level-off the negative health effects from additional scenario-driven heat exposure. Choosing a 2 °C-compatible climate trajectory alleviates the dependence on fast growth, leaving room for a sustainable economy, and leads to higher reductions of mortality risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linda Krummenauer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany. .,Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany.
| | - Luís Costa
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Boris F Prahl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Jürgen P Kropp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany.,Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
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190
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Estimates of country level temperature-related mortality damage functions. Sci Rep 2021; 11:20282. [PMID: 34645834 PMCID: PMC8514527 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99156-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Accepted: 09/13/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Many studies project that climate change is expected to cause a significant number of excess deaths. Yet, in integrated assessment models that determine the social cost of carbon (SCC), human mortality impacts do not reflect the latest scientific understanding. We address this issue by estimating country-level mortality damage functions for temperature-related mortality with global spatial coverage. We rely on projections from the most comprehensive published study in the epidemiology literature of future temperature impacts on mortality (Gasparrini et al. in Lancet Planet Health 1:e360–e367, 2017), which estimated changes in heat- and cold-related mortality for 23 countries over the twenty-first century. We model variation in these mortality projections as a function of baseline climate, future temperature change, and income variables and then project future changes in mortality for every country. We find significant spatial heterogeneity in projected mortality impacts, with hotter and poorer places more adversely affected than colder and richer places. In the absence of income-based adaptation, the global mortality rate in 2080–2099 is expected to increase by 1.8% [95% CI 0.8–2.8%] under a lower-emissions RCP 4.5 scenario and by 6.2% [95% CI 2.5–10.0%] in the very high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario relative to 2001–2020. When the reduced sensitivity to heat associated with rising incomes, such as greater ability to invest in air conditioning, is accounted for, the expected end-of-century increase in the global mortality rate is 1.1% [95% CI 0.4–1.9%] in RCP 4.5 and 4.2% [95% CI 1.8–6.7%] in RCP 8.5. In addition, we compare recent estimates of climate-change induced excess mortality from diarrheal disease, malaria and dengue fever in 2030 and 2050 with current estimates used in SCC calculations and show these are likely underestimated in current SCC estimates, but are also small compared to more direct temperature effects.
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191
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Ge Y, Martinez L, Sun S, Chen Z, Zhang F, Li F, Sun W, Chen E, Pan J, Li C, Sun J, Handel A, Ling F, Shen Y. COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics Among Close Contacts of Index Patients With COVID-19: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Zhejiang Province, China. JAMA Intern Med 2021; 181:1343-1350. [PMID: 34424260 PMCID: PMC8383161 DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.4686] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Much remains unknown about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. How the severity of the index case and timing of exposure is associated with disease in close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and clinical presentation in those developing disease is not well elucidated. OBJECTIVES To investigate the association between the timing of exposure and development of disease among close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and to evaluate whether the severity of the index case is associated with clinical presentation in close contacts who develop COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study used a large, population-based cohort of 730 individuals (index patients) who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province, China, from January 8 to July 30, 2020, along with a contact tracing surveillance program. Field workers visited 8852 close contacts of the index patients and evaluated them for COVID-19 through August 2020. A timeline was constructed to characterize different exposure periods between index patients and their contacts. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was the attack rate of COVID-19, defined as the total number of new COVID-19 cases diagnosed among contacts of index patients divided by the total number of exposed contacts. A secondary outcome was asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Relative risks were calculated to investigate risk factors for COVID-19 among contacts and asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. RESULTS Among 8852 close contacts (4679 male contacts [52.9%]; median age, 41 years [interquartile range, 28-54 years]) of 730 index patients (374 male patients [51.2%]; median age, 46 years [interquartile range, 36-56 years]), contacts were at highest risk of COVID-19 if they were exposed between 2 days before and 3 days after the index patient's symptom onset, peaking at day 0 (adjusted relative risk [ARR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5). Compared with being exposed to an asymptomatic index patient, the risk of COVID-19 among contacts was higher when they were exposed to index patients with mild (ARR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.8-9.1) and moderate (ARR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.9-9.7) cases of COVID-19. As index case severity increased, infected contacts were less likely to be asymptomatic (exposed to patient with mild COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9; exposed to patient with moderate COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study found that individuals with COVID-19 were most infectious a few days before and after symptom onset. Infected contacts of asymptomatic index patients were less likely to present with COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that quantity of exposure may be associated with clinical presentation in close contacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Ge
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens
| | - Leonardo Martinez
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Shengzhi Sun
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Zhiping Chen
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Feng Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston
| | - Fangyu Li
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston
| | - Wanwan Sun
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Enfu Chen
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jinren Pan
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Changwei Li
- Department of Epidemiology, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana
| | - Jimin Sun
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Andreas Handel
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens
| | - Feng Ling
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China
| | - Ye Shen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens
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192
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Kollanus V, Tiittanen P, Lanki T. Mortality risk related to heatwaves in Finland - Factors affecting vulnerability. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 201:111503. [PMID: 34144011 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2021] [Revised: 05/28/2021] [Accepted: 06/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heatwaves are known to increase mortality. However, there is a need for more quantitative information on factors affecting sensitivity to the adverse health effects, particularly in countries with cool summer temperatures. OBJECTIVES We evaluated mortality risk related to heatwave days in Finland. Risk was examined by age, sex, cause of death, and place of death, including health and social care facilities and homes. Mortality was also analysed for different patient subgroups in healthcare facilities. METHODS Heatwaves were defined as periods when the daily average temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of that from May to August in 2000-2014 for ≥4 days. In addition to all heatwave days, risk was analysed for short (4-5 days) and long (≥10 days) heatwaves. Mortality analyses were based on linking registry data on i) daily non-accidental and cause-specific mortality and ii) admissions to a health or social care facility. Statistical analyses were conducted using generalised estimating equations for longitudinal data analysis, assuming a Poisson distribution for the daily mortality count. RESULTS During all heatwave days, mortality increased among those aged 65-74 years (6.7%, 95% confidence interval 2.9-10.8%) and ≥75 years (12.8%, 95% CI 9.8-15.9%). Mortality increased in both sexes, but the risk was higher in women. Positive associations were observed for deaths due to respiratory diseases, renal diseases, mental and behavioural disorders, diseases of the nervous system, and cardiovascular diseases. Overall, effects were stronger for long than short heatwaves. During all heatwave days, mortality increased in healthcare facilities in outpatients (26.9%, 95% CI 17.3-37.2%) and inpatients. Among inpatients, the risk was higher in long-term inpatients (stay in ward > 30 days, 13.1%, 95% CI 8.6-17.7%) than others (5.8%, 95% CI 2.7-9.0%). At homes, mortality increased by 8.1% (95% CI 1.9-14.6%). Elevated risk estimates were also detected for social care facilities. CONCLUSIONS In Finland, a cold-climate Northern country, heatwaves increase mortality risk significantly among the elderly. Women are more susceptible than men, and many chronic diseases are important risk factors. To reduce heatwave-related deaths, preparedness should be improved particularly in hospital and healthcare centre wards, where the most vulnerable are long-term inpatients. However, measures are also needed to protect the elderly at home and in social care facilities, especially during prolonged hot periods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Virpi Kollanus
- Unit of Environmental Health, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 95, FI-70701, Kuopio, Finland.
| | - Pekka Tiittanen
- Unit of Environmental Health, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 95, FI-70701, Kuopio, Finland.
| | - Timo Lanki
- Unit of Environmental Health, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 95, FI-70701, Kuopio, Finland; School of Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 1627, FI-70211, Kuopio, Finland; Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern, P.O. Box 1627, FI-70211, Kuopio, Finland.
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Romanello M, van Daalen K, Anto JM, Dasandi N, Drummond P, Hamilton IG, Jankin S, Kendrovski V, Lowe R, Rocklöv J, Schmoll O, Semenza JC, Tonne C, Nilsson M. Tracking progress on health and climate change in Europe. LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 6:e858-e865. [PMID: 34562381 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00207-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2021] [Revised: 08/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/24/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
Left unabated, climate change will have catastrophic effects on the health of present and future generations. Such effects are already seen in Europe, through more frequent and severe extreme weather events, alterations to water and food systems, and changes in the environmental suitability for infectious diseases. As one of the largest current and historical contributors to greenhouse gases and the largest provider of financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation, Europe's response is crucial, for both human health and the planet. To ensure that health and wellbeing are protected in this response it is essential to build the capacity to understand, monitor, and quantify health impacts of climate change and the health co-benefits of accelerated action. Responding to this need, the Lancet Countdown in Europe is established as a transdisciplinary research collaboration for monitoring progress on health and climate change in Europe. With the wealth of data and academic expertise available in Europe, the collaboration will develop region-specific indicators to address the main challenges and opportunities of Europe's response to climate change for health. The indicators produced by the collaboration will provide information to health and climate policy decision making, and will also contribute to the European Observatory on Climate and Health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Kim van Daalen
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK; Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK
| | - Josep M Anto
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; IMIM (Hospital del Mar Medical Research Institute), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Slava Jankin
- Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
| | - Vladimir Kendrovski
- European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Oliver Schmoll
- European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Cathryn Tonne
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
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194
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Song J, Pan R, Yi W, Wei Q, Qin W, Song S, Tang C, He Y, Liu X, Cheng J, Su H. Ambient high temperature exposure and global disease burden during 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 787:147540. [PMID: 33992940 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Revised: 04/27/2021] [Accepted: 04/30/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A warming climate throughout the 21st century makes ambient high temperature exposure a major threat to population health worldwide. Mitigating the health impact of high temperature requires a timely, comprehensive and reliable assessment of disease burden globally, regionally and temporally. AIM Based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, this study aimed to evaluate the disease burden attributable to high temperature from various epidemiology perspectives. METHODS A three-stage analysis was undertaken to investigate the number and age-standardized rates of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) attributable to high temperature from GBD Study 2019. First, we reported the high temperature-related disease burden for the whole world and for different groups by gender, age, region, country and disease. Second, we examined the temporal trend of the disease burden attributable to high temperature from 1990 to 2019. Finally, we explored if and how the high temperature-related disease burden was modified by a number of country-level indicators. RESULTS Globally, high temperature accounted for 0.54% of death and 0.46% of DALY in 2019, equating to the age-standardized rates of death and DALY (per 100,000 population) of 3.99 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2.88, 5.93) and 156.81 (95% UI: 107.98, 261.98), respectively. In 2019, the high temperature-related DALY and death rates were the highest for lower respiratory infections, although they showed a downward trend. In contrast, during 1990-2019, high temperature-related non-communicable diseases burden exhibited an upward trend. Meanwhile, the disease burden attributable to high temperature varied spatially, with the heaviest burden in regions with low sociodemographic index (SDI) and the lightest burden in regions with high SDI. In addition, high temperature-related disease burden appeared to be higher in a country with a higher population density and PM2.5 concentration background but lower in a country with a higher density of greenness. CONCLUSION This study for the first time provided a comprehensive understanding of the global disease burden attributable to high temperature, underscoring the policy priority to protect human health worldwide in the context of global warming with particular attention to vulnerable countries or regions as well as susceptible population and diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Song
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Rubing Pan
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Weizhuo Yi
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Qiannan Wei
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Wei Qin
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Shasha Song
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Chao Tang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Yangyang He
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Xiangguo Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Jian Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, China.
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195
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Quijal-Zamorano M, Martínez-Solanas È, Achebak H, Petrova D, Robine JM, Herrmann FR, Rodó X, Ballester J. Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e573-e575. [PMID: 34508677 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00211-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2021] [Revised: 07/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/27/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Jean-Marie Robine
- Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Montpellier, France; École Pratique des Hautes Études, Paris, France
| | - François R Herrmann
- Division of Geriatrics, Department of Rehabilitation and Geriatrics, Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva, Thônex, Switzerland
| | - Xavier Rodó
- ISGlobal, Barcelona 08003, Spain; ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
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196
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Yu W, Xu R, Ye T, Han C, Chen Z, Song J, Li S, Guo Y. Temperature-mortality association during and before the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study. URBAN CLIMATE 2021; 39:100948. [PMID: 34580627 PMCID: PMC8459163 DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100948] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2021] [Revised: 06/25/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To identify the associations of temperature with non-COVID-19 mortality and all-cause mortality in the pandemic 2020 in comparison with the non-COVID-19 period in Italy. METHODS The data on 3,189,790 all-cause deaths (including 3,134,137 non-COVID-19 deaths) and meteorological conditions in 107 Italian provinces between February 1st and November 30th in each year of 2015-2020 were collected. We employed a time-stratified case-crossover study design combined with the distributed lag non-linear model to investigate the relationships of temperature with all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality in the pandemic and non-pandemic periods. RESULTS Cold temperature exposure contributed higher risks for both all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality in the pandemic period in 2020 than in 2015-2019. However, no different change was found for the impacts of heat. The relative risk (RR) of non-COVID-19 deaths and all-cause mortality at extremely cold (2 °C) in comparison with the estimated minimum mortality temperature (19 °C) in 2020 were 1.63 (95% CI: 1.55-1.72) and 1.45 (95%CI: 1.31-1.61) respectively, which were higher than all-cause mortality risk in 2015-2019 with RR of 1.19 (95%CI: 1.17-1.21). CONCLUSION Cold exposure indicated stronger impacts than high temperatures on all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality in the pandemic year 2020 compared to its counterpart period in 2015-2019 in Italy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenhua Yu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Rongbin Xu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Tingting Ye
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Chunlei Han
- School of Public Health and Management, Binzhou Medical University, 346 Guanhai Road, Yantai 264003, PR China
| | - Zhuying Chen
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Melbourne, 203 Bouverie Street, Melbourne, VIC 3053, Australia
| | - Jiangning Song
- Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
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197
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Follos F, Linares C, López-Bueno JA, Navas MA, Culqui D, Vellón JM, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J. Evolution of the minimum mortality temperature (1983-2018): Is Spain adapting to heat? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 784:147233. [PMID: 34088038 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2021] [Revised: 03/24/2021] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
The objective of this study was to analyze at the level of Spain's 52 provinces province level the temporal evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) from 1983 to 2018, in order to determine whether the increase in MMT would be sufficient to compensate for the increase in environmental temperatures in Spain for the period. It also aimed to analyze whether the rate of evolution of MMT would be sufficient, were it to remain constant, to compensate for the predicted increase in temperatures in an unfavorable (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario for the time horizon 2051-2100. The independent variable was made up of maximum daily temperature data (Tmax) for the summer months in the reference observatories of each province for the 1983-2018 period. The dependent variable was daily mortality rate due to natural causes (ICD 10: A00-R99). For each year and province, MMT was determined using a quadratic or cubic fit (p < 0.05). Based on the annual MMT values, a linear fit was carried out that allowed for determining the time evolution of MMT. These values were compared with the evolution of Tmax registered in each observatory during the 1983-2018 analyzed period and with the predicted values of Tmax obtained for an RCP8.5 scenario for the period 2051-2100. The rate of global variance in Tmax in the summer months in Spain during the 1983-2018 period was 0.41 °C/decade, while MMT across the whole country increased at a rate of 0.64 °C/decade. Variations in the provinces were heterogeneous. For the 2051-2100 time horizon, there was predicted increase in Tmax values of 0.66 °C/decade, with marked geographical differences. Although at the global level it is possible to speak of adaptation, the heterogeneities among the provinces suggest that the local level measures are needed in order to facilitate adaptation in those areas where it is not occurring.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL, Ferrol, A Coruña, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J A López-Bueno
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - M A Navas
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - D Culqui
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J M Vellón
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL, Ferrol, A Coruña, Spain
| | - M Y Luna
- State Meteorological Agency, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
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Siman-Tov M, Vanderplanken K, Guha-Sapir D, van Loenhout JAF, Adini B. Does Ethnic Diversity Impact on Risk Perceptions, Preparedness, and Management of Heat Waves? Front Public Health 2021; 9:642874. [PMID: 34409002 PMCID: PMC8365166 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.642874] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2020] [Accepted: 07/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Detrimental health impacts of heatwaves, including excess mortality, are increasing worldwide. To assess risk perceptions, protective knowledge and behaviors concerning heatwaves in Israel, a study was initiated, comparing attitudes of majority (Jewish) and minority (Arab) populations. A quantitative survey was disseminated through an internet panel, to a representative sample of 556 individuals (79% Jews; 21% Arabs). Overall, 74% consider heatwaves a problem, 93% believe that heatwaves' frequencies will increase, 27% are very concerned about the effects of heatwaves. Higher levels of awareness to heatwaves were found among Jewish compared to Arab respondents; 90 vs. 77% (respectively) could name heatwaves' symptoms (p < 0.001); 81 vs. 56% (respectively) reported knowing how to protect themselves (p < 0.001); 74 vs. 47% (respectively) reported knowing what to do when someone suffers from heat stroke (p < 0.001). Arab compared to Jewish respondents presented higher levels of concern about heatwaves' effects (3.22 vs. 3.09 respectively; t −2.25, p = 0.03), while knowledge of protective measures was higher among Jews compared to Arabs (3.67 vs. 3.56 t = 2.13 p = 0.04). A crucial component of enhancing preparedness to heatwaves is empowerment of minority as well as majority groups, to strengthen their capacity to implement protective behavior and elevate their self-belief in their individual ability and fortitude.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kirsten Vanderplanken
- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Debarati Guha-Sapir
- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Joris A F van Loenhout
- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Institute of Health and Society, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Bruria Adini
- Department of Emergency Management and Disaster Medicine, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
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199
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Presbitero A, Melnikov VR, Krzhizhanovskaya VV, Sloot PMA. A unifying model to estimate the effect of heat stress in the human innate immunity during physical activities. Sci Rep 2021; 11:16688. [PMID: 34404876 PMCID: PMC8371171 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-96191-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2021] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Public health is threatened by climate change and extreme temperature events worldwide. Differences in health predispositions, access to cooling infrastructure and occupation raises an issue of heat-related health inequality in those vulnerable and disadvantaged demographic groups. To address these issues, a comprehensive understanding of the effect of elevated body temperatures on human biological systems and overall health is urgently needed. In this paper we look at the inner workings of the human innate immunity under exposure to heat stress induced through exposure to environment and physical exertion. We couple two experimentally validated computational models: the innate immune system and thermal regulation of the human body. We first study the dynamics of critical indicators of innate immunity as a function of human core temperature. Next, we identify environmental and physical activity regimes that lead to core temperature levels that can potentially compromise the performance of the human innate immunity. Finally, to take into account the response of innate immunity to various intensities of physical activities, we utilise the dynamic core temperatures generated by a thermal regulation model. We compare the dynamics of all key players of the innate immunity for a variety of stresses like running a marathon, doing construction work, and leisure walking at speed of 4 km/h, all in the setting of a hot and humid tropical climate such as present in Singapore. We find that exposure to moderate heat stress leading to core temperatures within the mild febrile range (37, 38][Formula: see text], nudges the innate immune system into activation and improves the efficiency of its response. Overheating corresponding to core temperatures beyond 38[Formula: see text], however, has detrimental effects on the performance of the innate immune system, as it further induces inflammation, which causes a series of reactions that may lead to the non-resolution of the ongoing inflammation. Among the three physical activities considered in our simulated scenarios (marathon, construction work, and walking), marathon induces the highest level of inflammation that challenges the innate immune response with its resolution. Our study advances the current state of research towards understanding the implications of heat exposure for such an essential physiological system as the innate immunity. Although we find that among considered physical activities, a marathon of 2 h and 46 min induces the highest level of inflammation, it must be noted that construction work done on a daily basis under the hot and humid tropical climate, can produce a continuous level of inflammation triggering moieties stretched at a longer timeline beating the negative effects of running a marathon. Our study demonstrates that the performance of the innate immune system can be severely compromised by the exposure to heat stress and physical exertion. This poses significant risks to health especially to those with limited access to cooling infrastructures. This is due in part to having low income, or having to work on outdoor settings, which is the case for construction workers. These risks to public health should be addressed through individual and population-level measures via behavioural adaptation and provision of the cooling infrastructure in outdoor environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alva Presbitero
- grid.464507.40000 0001 2219 7447Asian Institute of Management, Makati, Philippines ,grid.35915.3b0000 0001 0413 4629National Center of Cognitive Research, ITMO University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
| | - Valentin R. Melnikov
- grid.7177.60000000084992262Institute for Advanced Study, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands ,grid.59025.3b0000 0001 2224 0361Complexity Institute, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore ,Future Cities Laboratory, Singapore-ETH Centre, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya
- grid.35915.3b0000 0001 0413 4629National Center of Cognitive Research, ITMO University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ,grid.7177.60000000084992262Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Peter M. A. Sloot
- grid.35915.3b0000 0001 0413 4629National Center of Cognitive Research, ITMO University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ,grid.7177.60000000084992262Institute for Advanced Study, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands ,grid.484678.1Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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200
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Zhu D, Zhou Q, Liu M, Bi J. Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 782:146760. [PMID: 33836376 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Revised: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Under the dual effects of climate change and urban heat islands (UHI), non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens are complex and uncertain, and are rarely discussed in China. In this study, by applying city-specific exposure-response functions to multiple temperature and population projections under different climate and urbanization scenarios, we comprehensively assessed the non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens in China from 2000 to 2050. Our results showed that temperature-related deaths will decrease from 1.19 million in 2010 to 1.08-1.17 million in 2050, with the exception of the most populous scenario. Excess deaths attributable to non-optimal temperatures under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) were 2.35% greater than those under RCP4.5. This indicates that the surge in heat-related deaths caused by climate change will be offset by the reduction in cold-related deaths. As the climate changes, high-risk areas will be confronted with more severe health challenges, which requires health protection resource relocation strategies. Simultaneously, the net effects of UHIs are beneficial in the historical periods, preventing 3493 (95% CI: 22-6964) deaths in 2000. But UHIs will cause an additional 6951 (95% CI: -17,637-31,539, SSP4-RCP4.5) to 17,041 (95% CI: -10,516-44,598, SSP5-RCP8.5) deaths in 2050. The heavier health burden in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 indicates that a warmer climate aggravates the negative effects of UHIs. Considering the synergistic behavior of climate change and UHIs, UHI mitigation strategies should not be developed without considering climate change. Moreover, the mortality burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with heavy burdens concentrated in the hotspots including Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shandong, and Henan. These hotspots should be priority areas for the allocation of the national medical resources to provide effective public health interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dianyu Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Qi Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Miaomiao Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Jun Bi
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
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