Design and cohort description of the InterAct Project: an examination of the interaction of genetic and lifestyle factors on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC Study

Food consumption by degree of food processing and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

Background

It is unknown whether the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and type 2 diabetes mellitus differs from other degrees of food processing. We examined the association between degree of food processing and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Methods

This was a prospective cohort analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline using dietary questionnaires and classified according to the Nova classification into unprocessed/minimally processed food (MPF), processed culinary ingredients (PCI), processed food (PF) and UPF. Type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were verified through multiple methods. Cox regression and statistical substitution analysis was used to estimate associations between MPF + PCI, PF and UPF intake and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. To investigate heterogeneity in the association between UPF and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus, UPF sub-group analysis was conducted. Different reference groups were used in each analysis.

Findings

Over an average 10.9 years follow-up of 311,892 individuals, 14,236 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were identified. Each 10% increment of total daily food intake from UPF (%g/day) was associated with 17% (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.14-1.19) higher incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Each 10% increment in MPF + PCI or PF intake was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (MPF + PCI hazard ratio: 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92-0.96); PF hazard ratio: 0.92 (95%CI: 0.89-0.95)). Replacing UPF with MPF + PCI or PF was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, heterogeneity was observed across UPF sub-groups, with breads, biscuits and breakfast cereals, sweets and desserts, and plant-based alternatives associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Interpretation

These findings support recommendations to focus on reducing intake of specific UPF for lowering type 2 diabetes mellitus risk.

Funding

International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Nutritional quality of diet characterized by the Nutri-Score profiling system and cardiovascular disease risk: a prospective study in 7 European countries

Background

Nutri-Score is a scientifically validated 5-color front-of-pack nutrition label reflecting the nutrient profile of foods. It has been implemented in several European countries on a voluntary basis, pending the revision of the European labeling regulation. Hence, scientific evidence is needed regarding the ability of the nutrient profile underlying the Nutri-Score (uNS-NPS, 2023-updated version) to characterize healthier foods. Our objective was therefore to study the prospective association between the nutritional quality of diet characterized by the uNS-NPS and the risk of cardiovascular diseases in a large European population.

Methods

Our analyses included 345,533 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (EPIC, 1992-2010, 7 European countries). Food intakes were assessed at baseline using country-specific dietary questionnaires. The uNS-NPS was calculated as a continuous scale for each food, based on its 100 g content of energy, sugars, saturated fatty acids, salt, fibre, and protein and percentage content of fruit, vegetables, and pulses. A dietary index was derived at the individual level (uNS-NPS DI: energy-weighted mean of uNS-NPS scores of all foods consumed by a participant). Cardiovascular events during follow-up were retrieved using country-specific methods (self-report, registry data). Multi-adjusted Cox models were computed.

Findings

Overall, 16,214 first cardiovascular events were reported (median follow-up: 12.3 years; 4,103,133 person-years). The consumption of foods with a higher uNS-NPS score (reflecting a lower overall nutritional quality of diet) was associated with higher risks of total cardiovascular events (Hazards Ratio (HR) for an increment of 1 standard deviation: 1.03 (95% Confidence Interval 1.01-1.05)), especially myocardial infarction (HR = 1.03 (1.01-1.07)), and stroke (HR = 1.04 (1.01-1.07)).

Interpretation

In this large prospective study among European adults, a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (total and several subtypes) was observed in individuals consuming a diet with a lower nutritional value, as graded by the uNS-NPS score. This brings new evidence on the relevance of the updated nutrient profile underlying the Nutri-Score to characterize foods with a healthier nutrient profile.

Funding

EPIC-CVD was supported by EU FP7, ERC, UK MRC, British Heart Foundation, and UK NIHR.

Meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes: an individual-participant federated meta-analysis of 1·97 million adults with 100 000 incident cases from 31 cohorts in 20 countries

BACKGROUND

Meat consumption could increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, evidence is largely based on studies of European and North American populations, with heterogeneous analysis strategies and a greater focus on red meat than on poultry. We aimed to investigate the associations of unprocessed red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with type 2 diabetes using data from worldwide cohorts and harmonised analytical approaches.

METHODS

This individual-participant federated meta-analysis involved data from 31 cohorts participating in the InterConnect project. Cohorts were from the region of the Americas (n=12) and the Eastern Mediterranean (n=2), European (n=9), South-East Asia (n=1), and Western Pacific (n=7) regions. Access to individual-participant data was provided by each cohort; participants were eligible for inclusion if they were aged 18 years or older and had available data on dietary consumption and incident type 2 diabetes and were excluded if they had a diagnosis of any type of diabetes at baseline or missing data. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated for each meat type, adjusted for potential confounders (including BMI), and pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis, with meta-regression to investigate potential sources of heterogeneity.

FINDINGS

Among 1 966 444 adults eligible for participation, 107 271 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified during a median follow-up of 10 (IQR 7-15) years. Median meat consumption across cohorts was 0-110 g/day for unprocessed red meat, 0-49 g/day for processed meat, and 0-72 g/day for poultry. Greater consumption of each of the three types of meat was associated with increased incidence of type 2 diabetes, with HRs of 1·10 (95% CI 1·06-1·15) per 100 g/day of unprocessed red meat (I2=61%), 1·15 (1·11-1·20) per 50 g/day of processed meat (I2=59%), and 1·08 (1·02-1·14) per 100 g/day of poultry (I2=68%). Positive associations between meat consumption and type 2 diabetes were observed in North America and in the European and Western Pacific regions; the CIs were wide in other regions. We found no evidence that the heterogeneity was explained by age, sex, or BMI. The findings for poultry consumption were weaker under alternative modelling assumptions. Replacing processed meat with unprocessed red meat or poultry was associated with a lower incidence of type 2 diabetes.

INTERPRETATION

The consumption of meat, particularly processed meat and unprocessed red meat, is a risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes across populations. These findings highlight the importance of reducing meat consumption for public health and should inform dietary guidelines.

FUNDING

The EU, the Medical Research Council, and the National Institute of Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre.

On the use of the healthy lifestyle index to investigate specific disease outcomes

The healthy lifestyle index (HLI), defined as the unweighted sum of individual lifestyle components, was used to investigate the combined role of lifestyle factors on health-related outcomes. We introduced weighted outcome-specific versions of the HLI, where individual lifestyle components were weighted according to their associations with disease outcomes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we examined the association between the standard and the outcome-specific HLIs and the risk of T2D, CVD, cancer, and all-cause premature mortality. Estimates of the hazard ratios (HRs), the Harrell's C-index and the population attributable fractions (PAFs) were compared. For T2D, the HR for 1-SD increase of the standard and T2D-specific HLI were 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.67) and 0.43 (0.42, 0.44), respectively, and the C-index were 0.63 (0.62, 0.64) and 0.72 (0.72, 0.73). Similar, yet less pronounced differences in HR and C-index were observed for standard and outcome-specific estimates for cancer, CVD and all-cause mortality. PAF estimates for mortality before age 80 were 57% (55%, 58%) and 33% (32%, 34%) for standard and mortality-specific HLI, respectively. The use of outcome-specific HLI could improve the assessment of the role of lifestyle factors on disease outcomes, thus enhancing the definition of public health recommendations.

Hepatic steatosis, metabolic dysfunction and risk of mortality: findings from a multinational prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are implicated in the aetiology of non-communicable diseases. Our study aimed to evaluate associations between NAFLD and MetS with overall and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

We used dietary, lifestyle, anthropometric and metabolic biomarker data from a random subsample of 15,784 EPIC cohort participants. NAFLD was assessed using the fatty liver index (FLI) and MetS using the revised definition. Indices for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) were calculated. The individual associations of these indices with overall and cause-specific mortality were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). As a subobjective, risk associations with adaptations of new classifications of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and metabolic and alcohol-related liver disease (MetALD) were also assessed.

RESULTS

Among the 15,784 sub-cohort participants, a total of 1997 deaths occurred (835 due to cancer, 520 to CVD, 642 to other causes) over a median 15.6 (IQR, 12.3-17.1) years of follow-up. Compared to an FLI < 30, FLI ≥ 60 was associated with increased risks of overall mortality (HR = 1.44, 95%CI = 1.27-1.63), and deaths from cancer (HR = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.09-1.60), CVD (HR = 2.06, 95% CI = 1.61-2.63) or other causes (HR = 1.21, 95%CI = 0.97-1.51). Mortality risk associations were also elevated for individuals with MAFLD compared to those without. Individuals with MetS were at increased risk of all mortality endpoints, except cancer-specific mortality. MASLD and MetALD were associated with higher risk of overall mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings based on a prospective cohort suggest that individuals with hepatic steatosis or metabolic dysfunction have a higher overall and cause-specific mortality risk.

Estimating dose-response relationships for vitamin D with coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality: observational and Mendelian randomisation analyses

BACKGROUND

Randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality have generally reported null findings. However, generalisability of results to individuals with low vitamin D status is unclear. We aimed to characterise dose-response relationships between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality in observational and Mendelian randomisation frameworks.

METHODS

Observational analyses were undertaken using data from 33 prospective studies comprising 500 962 individuals with no known history of coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline. Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed in four population-based cohort studies (UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD, and two Copenhagen population-based studies) comprising 386 406 middle-aged individuals of European ancestries, including 33 546 people who developed coronary heart disease, 18 166 people who had a stroke, and 27 885 people who died. Primary outcomes were coronary heart disease, defined as fatal ischaemic heart disease (International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code I20-I25) or non-fatal myocardial infarction (I21-I23); stroke, defined as any cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69); and all-cause mortality.

FINDINGS

Observational analyses suggested inverse associations between incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality outcomes with 25(OH)D concentration at low 25(OH)D concentrations. In population-wide genetic analyses, there were no associations of genetically predicted 25(OH)D with coronary heart disease (odds ratio [OR] per 10 nmol/L higher genetically-predicted 25(OH)D concentration 0·98, 95% CI 0·95-1·01), stroke (1·01, [0·97-1·05]), or all-cause mortality (0·99, 0·95-1·02). Null findings were also observed in genetic analyses for cause-specific mortality outcomes, and in stratified genetic analyses for all outcomes at all observed levels of 25(OH)D concentrations.

INTERPRETATION

Stratified Mendelian randomisation analyses suggest a lack of causal relationship for 25(OH)D concentrations with both cardiovascular and mortality outcomes for individuals at all levels of 25(OH)D. Our findings suggest that substantial reductions in mortality and cardiovascular morbidity due to long-term low-dose vitamin D supplementation are unlikely even if targeted at individuals with low vitamin D status.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Health Data Research UK, Cancer Research UK, and International Agency for Research on Cancer.

An overview of environmental risk factors for type 2 diabetes research using network science tools

Objective

Current studies lack a comprehensive understanding of the environmental factors influencing type 2 diabetes, hindering an in-depth grasp of the overall etiology. To address this gap, we utilized network science tools to highlight research trends, knowledge structures, and intricate relationships among factors, offering a new perspective for a profound understanding of the etiology.

Methods

The Web of Science database was employed to retrieve documents relevant to environmental risk factors in type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2024. Bibliometric analysis using Microsoft Excel and OriginPro provided a detailed scientific production profile, including articles, journals, countries, and authors. Co-occurrence analysis was employed to determine the collaboration state and knowledge structures, utilizing social network tools such as Gephi, Tableau, and R Studio. Additionally, theme evolutionary analysis was conducted using SciMAT to offer insights into research trends.

Results

The publications and themes related to environmental factors in type 2 diabetes have consistently risen, shaping a well-established research domain. Lifestyle environmental factors, particularly diet and nutrition, stand out as the most represented and rapidly growing topics. Key focal hotspots include sedentary and digital behavior, PM2.5, ethnicity and socioeconomic status, traffic and greenspace, and depression. The theme evolutionary analysis revealed three distinct paths: (1) oxidative stress-air pollutants-PM2.5-air pollutants; (2) calcium-metabolic syndrome-cardiovascular disease; and (3) polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)-persistent organic pollutants (POPs)-obesity.

Conclusions

Digital behavior signifies a novel approach for preventing and managing type 2 diabetes. The influence of PM2.5 and calcium on oxidative stress and abnormal vascular contraction is intricately linked to microvascular diabetes complications. The transition from PCBs and POPs to obesity underscores the disruption of endocrine function by chemicals, elevating the risk of diabetes. Future studies should explore the connections between environmental factors, microvascular complications, and long-term outcomes in diabetes.

Multi-omic prediction of incident type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The identification of people who are at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is a key part of population-level prevention strategies. Previous studies have evaluated the predictive utility of omics measurements, such as metabolites, proteins or polygenic scores, but have considered these separately. The improvement that combined omics biomarkers can provide over and above current clinical standard models is unclear. The aim of this study was to test the predictive performance of genome, proteome, metabolome and clinical biomarkers when added to established clinical prediction models for type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We developed sparse interpretable prediction models in a prospective, nested type 2 diabetes case-cohort study (N=1105, incident type 2 diabetes cases=375) with 10,792 person-years of follow-up, selecting from 5759 features across the genome, proteome, metabolome and clinical biomarkers using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. We compared the predictive performance of omics-derived predictors with a clinical model including the variables from the Cambridge Diabetes Risk Score and HbA1c.

RESULTS

Among single omics prediction models that did not include clinical risk factors, the top ten proteins alone achieved the highest performance (concordance index [C index]=0.82 [95% CI 0.75, 0.88]), suggesting the proteome as the most informative single omic layer in the absence of clinical information. However, the largest improvement in prediction of type 2 diabetes incidence over and above the clinical model was achieved by the top ten features across several omic layers (C index=0.87 [95% CI 0.82, 0.92], Δ C index=0.05, p=0.045). This improvement by the top ten omic features was also evident in individuals with HbA1c <42 mmol/mol (6.0%), the threshold for prediabetes (C index=0.84 [95% CI 0.77, 0.90], Δ C index=0.07, p=0.03), the group in whom prediction would be most useful since they are not targeted for preventative interventions by current clinical guidelines. In this subgroup, the type 2 diabetes polygenic risk score was the major contributor to the improvement in prediction, and achieved a comparable improvement in performance when added onto the clinical model alone (C index=0.83 [95% CI 0.75, 0.90], Δ C index=0.06, p=0.002). However, compared with those with prediabetes, individuals at high polygenic risk in this group had only around half the absolute risk for type 2 diabetes over a 20 year period.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Omic approaches provided marginal improvements in prediction of incident type 2 diabetes. However, while a polygenic risk score does improve prediction in people with an HbA1c in the normoglycaemic range, the group in whom prediction would be most useful, even individuals with a high polygenic burden in that subgroup had a low absolute type 2 diabetes risk. This suggests a limited feasibility of implementing targeted population-based genetic screening for preventative interventions.

Body mass index and cancer risk among adults with and without cardiometabolic diseases: evidence from the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Whether cancer risk associated with a higher body mass index (BMI), a surrogate measure of adiposity, differs among adults with and without cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and/or type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate separate and joint associations of BMI and CVD/T2D with the risk of cancer.

METHODS

This is an individual participant data meta-analysis of two prospective cohort studies, the UK Biobank (UKB) and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC), with a total of 577,343 adults, free of cancer, T2D, and CVD at recruitment. We used Cox proportional hazard regressions to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between BMI and incidence of obesity-related cancer and in turn overall cancer with a multiplicative interaction between BMI and the two cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). HRs and 95% CIs for separate and joint associations for categories of overweight/obesity and CMD status were estimated, and additive interaction was quantified through relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI).

RESULTS

In the meta-analysis of both cohorts, BMI (per ~ 5 kg/m2) was positively associated with the risk of obesity-related cancer among participants without a CMD (HR: 1.11, 95%CI: 1.07,1.16), among participants with T2D (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.05,1.18), among participants with CVD (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11,1.24), and suggestively positive among those with both T2D and CVD (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.94,1.25). An additive interaction between obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and CVD with the risk of overall cancer translated into a meta-analytical RERI of 0.28 (95% CI: 0.09-0.47).

CONCLUSIONS

Irrespective of CMD status, higher BMI increased the risk of obesity-related cancer among European adults. The additive interaction between obesity and CVD suggests that obesity prevention would translate into a greater cancer risk reduction among population groups with CVD than among the general population.

Age at Menopause and the Risk of Stroke: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analysis in 204 244 Postmenopausal Women

Background Observational studies have shown that women with an early menopause are at higher risk of stroke compared with women with a later menopause. However, associations with stroke subtypes are inconsistent, and the causality is unclear. Methods and Results We analyzed data of the UK Biobank and EPIC-CVD (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Diseases) study. A total of 204 244 postmenopausal women without a history of stroke at baseline were included (7883 from EPIC-CVD [5292 from the subcohort], 196 361 from the UK Biobank). Pooled mean baseline age was 58.9 years (SD, 5.8), and pooled mean age at menopause was 47.8 years (SD, 6.2). Over a median follow-up of 12.6 years (interquartile range, 11.8-13.3), 6770 women experienced a stroke (5155 ischemic strokes, 1615 hemorrhagic strokes, 976 intracerebral hemorrhages, and 639 subarachnoid hemorrhages). In multivariable adjusted observational Cox regression analyses, the pooled hazard ratios per 5 years younger age at menopause were 1.09 (95% CI, 1.07-1.12) for stroke, 1.09 (95% CI, 1.06-1.13) for ischemic stroke, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04-1.16) for hemorrhagic stroke, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.08-1.20) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.84-1.20) for subarachnoid hemorrhage. When using 2-sample Mendelian randomization analysis, we found no statistically significant association between genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of any type of stroke. Conclusions In our study, earlier age at menopause was related to a higher risk of stroke. We found no statistically significant association between genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of stroke, suggesting no causal relationship.

Interaction between plasma phospholipid odd-chain fatty acids and GAD65 autoantibodies on the incidence of adult-onset diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Islet autoimmunity may progress to adult-onset diabetes. We investigated whether circulating odd-chain fatty acids (OCFA) 15:0 and 17:0, which are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes, interact with autoantibodies against GAD65 (GAD65Ab) on the incidence of adult-onset diabetes.

METHODS

We used the European EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study including 11,124 incident adult-onset diabetes cases and a subcohort of 14,866 randomly selected individuals. Adjusted Prentice-weighted Cox regression estimated HRs and 95% CIs of diabetes in relation to 1 SD lower plasma phospholipid 15:0 and/or 17:0 concentrations or their main contributor, dairy intake, among GAD65Ab-negative and -positive individuals. Interactions between tertiles of OCFA and GAD65Ab status were estimated by proportion attributable to interaction (AP).

RESULTS

Low concentrations of OCFA, particularly 17:0, were associated with a higher incidence of adult-onset diabetes in both GAD65Ab-negative (HR 1.55 [95% CI 1.48, 1.64]) and GAD65Ab-positive (HR 1.69 [95% CI 1.34, 2.13]) individuals. The combination of low 17:0 and high GAD65Ab positivity vs high 17:0 and GAD65Ab negativity conferred an HR of 7.51 (95% CI 4.83, 11.69), with evidence of additive interaction (AP 0.25 [95% CI 0.05, 0.45]). Low dairy intake was not associated with diabetes incidence in either GAD65Ab-negative (HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.94, 1.02]) or GAD65Ab-positive individuals (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.79, 1.18]).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Low plasma phospholipid 17:0 concentrations may promote the progression from GAD65Ab positivity to adult-onset diabetes.

A nutritional biomarker score of the Mediterranean diet and incident type 2 diabetes: Integrated analysis of data from the MedLey randomised controlled trial and the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND

Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860.

Logistic regression with correlated measurement error and misclassification in covariates

Many areas of research, such as nutritional epidemiology, may encounter measurement errors of continuous covariates and misclassification of categorical variables when modeling. It is well known that ignoring measurement errors or misclassification can lead to biased results. But most research has focused on solving these two problems separately. Addressing both measurement error and misclassification simultaneously in a single analysis is less actively studied. In this article, we propose a new correction method for a logistic regression to handle correlated error variables involved in multivariate continuous covariates and misclassification in a categorical variable simultaneously. It is not computationally intensive since a closed-form of the approximate likelihood function conditional on observed covariates is derived. The asymptotic normality of this proposed estimator is established under regularity conditions and its finite-sample performance is empirically examined by simulation studies. We apply this new estimation method to handle measurement error in some nutrients of interest and misclassification of a categorical variable named physical activity in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct Study data. Analyses show that fruit is negatively associated with type 2 diabetes for a group of women doing active physical activity, protein has positive association with type 2 diabetes for the group of less active physical activity, and actual physical activity has a greater effect on reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes than observed physical activity.

Time above range for predicting the development of type 2 diabetes

Aim

To investigate the prognostic value of time range metrics, as measured by continuous glucose monitoring, with respect to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Research design and methods

A total of 499 persons without diabetes from the general population were followed-up for 5 years. Time range metrics were measured at the start and medical records were checked over the period study.

Results

Twenty-two subjects (8.3 per 1,000 person-years) developed T2D. After adjusting for age, gender, family history of diabetes, body mass index and glycated hemoglobin concentration, multivariate analysis revealed 'time above range' (TAR, i.e., with a plasma glucose concentration of >140 mg/dL) to be significantly associated with a greater risk (OR = 1.06, CI 1.01-1.11) of developing diabetes (AUC = 0.94, Brier = 0.035).

Conclusions

Time above range provides additional information to that offered by glycated hemoglobin to identify patients at a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes in a population-based study.

Milk intake and incident stroke and CHD in populations of European descent: a Mendelian randomisation study

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (β = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

Personalised prevention of type 2 diabetes

It is well established from clinical trials that behavioural interventions can halve the risk of progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes but translating this evidence of efficacy into effective real-world interventions at scale is an ongoing challenge. A common suggestion is that future preventive interventions need to be more personalised in order to enhance effectiveness. This review evaluates the degree to which existing interventions are already personalised and outlines how greater personalisation could be achieved through better identification of those at high risk, division of type 2 diabetes into specific subgroups and, above all, more individualisation of the behavioural targets for preventive action. Approaches using more dynamic real-time data are in their scientific infancy. Although these approaches are promising they need longer-term evaluation against clinical outcomes. Whatever personalised preventive approaches for type 2 diabetes are developed in the future, they will need to be complementary to existing individual-level interventions that are being rolled out and that are demonstrably effective. They will also need to ideally synergise with, and at the very least not detract attention from, efforts to develop and implement strategies that impact on type 2 diabetes risk at the societal level.

Proteomic signatures for identification of impaired glucose tolerance

The implementation of recommendations for type 2 diabetes (T2D) screening and diagnosis focuses on the measurement of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting glucose. This approach leaves a large number of individuals with isolated impaired glucose tolerance (iIGT), who are only detectable through oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs), at risk of diabetes and its severe complications. We applied machine learning to the proteomic profiles of a single fasted sample from 11,546 participants of the Fenland study to test discrimination of iIGT defined using the gold-standard OGTTs. We observed significantly improved discriminative performance by adding only three proteins (RTN4R, CBPM and GHR) to the best clinical model (AUROC = 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.86), P = 0.004), which we validated in an external cohort. Increased plasma levels of these candidate proteins were associated with an increased risk for future T2D in an independent cohort and were also increased in individuals genetically susceptible to impaired glucose homeostasis and T2D. Assessment of a limited number of proteins can identify individuals likely to be missed by current diagnostic strategies and at high risk of T2D and its complications.

Physical activity attenuates but does not eliminate coronary heart disease risk amongst adults with risk factors: EPIC-CVD case-cohort study

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the association between physical activity and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in individuals with and without CHD risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS

EPIC-CVD is a case-cohort study of 29 333 participants that included 13 582 incident CHD cases and a randomly selected sub-cohort nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Self-reported physical activity was summarized using the Cambridge physical activity index (inactive, moderately inactive, moderately active, and active). Participants were categorized into sub-groups based on the presence or the absence of the following risk factors: obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), hypercholesterolaemia (total cholesterol ≥6.2 mmol/L), history of diabetes, hypertension (self-reported or ≥140/90 mmHg), and current smoking. Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to assess the association between physical activity and incident CHD events (non-fatal and fatal).Compared to inactive participants without the respective CHD risk factor (referent), excess CHD risk was highest in physically inactive and lowest in moderately active participants with CHD risk factors. Corresponding excess CHD risk estimates amongst those with obesity were 47% [95% confidence interval (CI) 32-64%] and 21% (95%CI 2-44%), with hypercholesterolaemia were 80% (95%CI 55-108%) and 48% (95%CI 22-81%), with hypertension were 80% (95%CI 65-96%) and 49% (95%CI 28-74%), with diabetes were 142% (95%CI 63-260%), and 100% (95%CI 32-204%), and amongst smokers were 152% (95%CI 122-186%) and 109% (95%CI 74-150%).

CONCLUSIONS

In people with CHD risk factors, moderate physical activity, equivalent to 40 mins of walking per day, attenuates but does not completely offset CHD risk.

A causal relationship between leukocyte telomere length and multiple sclerosis: A Mendelian randomization study

Objectives

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune and degenerative disorder of the central nervous system. Telomeres are protective structures located at the ends of linear chromosomes, and leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is closely connected with cell aging and senescence. However, the relationship between LTL and the risk of MS remains unknown.

Methods

We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to evaluate whether LTL was causally associated with MS risk.

Results

In our MR analysis, 12 LTL-related variants were selected as valid instrumental variables, and a causal relationship between LTL and MS was suggested. The risk of MS nearly doubled as the genetically predicted LTL shortened by one standard deviation (SD) under the inverse variance weighted (IVW) fixed effect model (odds ratio (OR) = 2.00, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.52-2.62, p = 6.01e-07). Similar estimated causal effects were also observed under different MR models. The MR–Egger regression test did not reveal any evidence of directional pleiotropy (intercept = -0.005, stand error (SE) = 0.03, p = 0.87). The Mendelian Randomization Pleiotropy RESidual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO) analysis also indicated no directional pleiotropy or outliers for any LTL-related IVs (p-global test = 0.13). In addition, a leave-one-out sensitivity analysis showed similar findings, which further emphasized the validity and stability of the causal relationship.

Conclusions

Our results suggest a potential causal effect of LTL on the risk of MS. Genetically predicted shorter LTL could increase the risk of MS in the European population. LTL should be noted and emphasized in the pathogenesis and treatment of MS.

Impact of cumulative body mass index and cardiometabolic diseases on survival among patients with colorectal and breast cancer: a multi-centre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Body mass index (BMI) and cardiometabolic comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes have been studied as negative prognostic factors in cancer survival, but possible dependencies in the mechanisms underlying these associations remain largely unexplored. We analysed these associations in colorectal and breast cancer patients.

METHODS

Based on repeated BMI assessments of cancer-free participants from four European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study, individual BMI-trajectories reflecting predicted mean BMI between ages 20 to 50 years were estimated using a growth curve model. Participants with incident colorectal or breast cancer after the age of 50 years were included in the survival analysis to study the prognostic effect of mean BMI and cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) prior to cancer. CMD were defined as one or more chronic conditions among stroke, myocardial infarction, and type 2 diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of mean BMI and CMD were derived using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression for mean BMI and CMD separately and both exposures combined, in subgroups of localised and advanced disease.

RESULTS

In the total cohort of 159,045 participants, there were 1,045 and 1,620 eligible patients of colorectal and breast cancer. In colorectal cancer patients, a higher BMI (by 1 kg/m2) was associated with a 6% increase in risk of death (95% CI of HR: 1.02-1.10). The HR for CMD was 1.25 (95% CI: 0.97-1.61). The associations for both exposures were stronger in patients with localised colorectal cancer. In breast cancer patients, a higher BMI was associated with a 4% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.00-1.08). CMDs were associated with a 46% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.01-2.09). The estimates and CIs for BMI remained similar after adjustment for CMD and vice versa.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that cumulative exposure to higher BMI during early to mid-adulthood was associated with poorer survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer, independent of CMD prior to cancer diagnosis. The association between a CMD diagnosis prior to cancer and survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer was independent of BMI.

The Association Between Vitamin C and Cancer: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

In recent years, many studies have indicated that vitamin C might be negatively associated with the risk of cancer, but the actual relationship between vitamin C and cancer remains ambivalent. Therefore, we utilized a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study to explore the causal associations of genetically predicted vitamin C with the risk of a variety of cancers. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with vitamin C at a significance level of p < 5 × 10-8 and with a low level of linkage disequilibrium (LD) (r2 < 0.01) were selected from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of plasmid concentration of vitamin C consisting of 52,018 individuals. The data of the GWAS outcomes were obtained from United Kingdom Biobank, FinnGen Biobank and the datasets of corresponding consortia. In the inverse-variance weight (IVW) method, our results did not support the causal association of genetically predicted vitamin C with the risk of overall cancer and 14 specific types of cancer. Similar results were observed in sensitivity analyses where the weighted median and MR-Egger methods were adopted, and heterogeneity and pleiotropy were not observed in statistical models. Therefore, our study suggested that vitamin C was not causally associated with the risk of cancer. Further studies are warranted to discover the potential protective and therapeutic effects of vitamin C on cancer, and its underlying mechanisms.

Relationship Between Plasma Vitamin C and COVID-19 Susceptibility and Severity: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

Background

Considering the antioxidant function of Vitamin C, also called ascorbic acid, it is widely used against viral infections such as coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on in vitro, observational, and ecological studies. Many confounding factors that can affect Vitamin C levels. Thus, the association described to date may not be causal. To determine the causal relationship between genetically predicted plasma Vitamin C and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity, we performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) based on large samples.

Methods

The summary-level data for Vitamin C was obtained from a GWAS meta-analysis, which included 52,018 individuals from four studies of European ancestry. Data for COVID-19 HGI results were obtained from the meta-analysis of 35 GWASs with more than 1,000,000 subjects of European ancestry, including 32,494 cases with COVID-19 susceptibility and 1,316,207 controls, 9,986 cases with COVID-19 hospitalization and 1,877,672 controls, and 5,101 cases with COVID-19 severe disease and 1,383,241 controls. Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was conducted to examine the effect of selected single nucleotide polymorphisms and COVID-19 susceptibility, hospitalization, disease severity. Several sensitivity analyses were performed with inverse-variance weighted (random-effect model), inverse variance weighted (fixed-effect model), weighted median, and maximum likelihood methods for estimating the causal effects.

Results

In this MR study, genetic predisposition to the levels of plasma Vitamin C was not associated with COVID-19 susceptibility (OR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.84–1.17, P = 0.91), hospitalization (OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.71–1.71, P = 0.67) and severity (OR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.43–1.59, P = 0.58). The association was consistent in complementary analyses. No potential heterogeneities and directional pleiotropies were observed for the analysis results.

Conclusion

According to our study, no correlation was observed between plasma Vitamin C levels and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. Further studies in different ethnics are necessary to explore the potential role and mechanisms of circulating serum Vitamin C levels on COVID-19.

Very long-chain saturated fatty acids and diabetes and cardiovascular disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In contrast to other saturated fatty acids, very long-chain saturated fatty acids (VLSFAs) have received limited attention The purpose of this review is to summarize the associations of VLSFAs, including arachidic acid, behenic acid, and lignoceric acid, with cardiovascular disease outcomes and type 2 diabetes; to discuss the findings implications; and to call for future studies of the VLSFAs.

RECENT FINDINGS

Increased levels of circulating VLSFAs have been found associated with lower risks of incident heart failure, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, mortality, sudden cardiac arrest, type 2 diabetes, and with better aging. The VLSFA associations are paralleled by associations of plasma ceramide and sphingomyelin species carrying a VLSFA with lower risks of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and mortality, suggesting VLSFAs affect the biological activity of ceramides and sphingomyelins thereby impacting health. For diabetes, there is no such parallel and the associations of VLSFAs with diabetes may be confounded or mediated by triglyceride and circulating palmitic acid, possible biomarkers of de novo lipogenesis.

SUMMARY

In many ways, the epidemiology has preceded our knowledge of VLSFAs biology. We hope this review will spur interest from the research community in further studying these potentially beneficial fatty acids.

Approximate profile likelihood estimation for Cox regression with covariate measurement error

In nutritional epidemiology, measurement error in covariates is a well-known problem since dietary intakes are usually assessed through self-reporting. In this article, we consider an additive error model in which error variables are highly correlated, and propose a new method called approximate profile likelihood estimation (APLE) for covariates measured with error in the Cox regression. Asymptotic normality of this estimator is established under regularity conditions, and simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator empirically. Moreover, the popular correction method called regression calibration is shown to be a special case of APLE. We then apply APLE to deal with measurement error in some nutrients of interest in the EPIC-InterAct Study under a sensitivity analysis framework.

Dietary Fatty Acids, Macronutrient Substitutions, Food Sources and Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease: Findings From the EPIC-CVD Case-Cohort Study Across Nine European Countries

Background There is controversy about associations between total dietary fatty acids, their classes (saturated fatty acids [SFAs], monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Specifically, the relevance of food sources of SFAs to CHD associations is uncertain. Methods and Results We conducted a case-cohort study involving 10 529 incident CHD cases and a random subcohort of 16 730 adults selected from a cohort of 385 747 participants in 9 countries of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study. We estimated multivariable adjusted country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs per 5% of energy intake from dietary fatty acids, with and without isocaloric macronutrient substitutions, using Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and pooled results using random-effects meta-analysis. We found no evidence for associations of the consumption of total or fatty acid classes with CHD, regardless of macronutrient substitutions. In analyses considering food sources, CHD incidence was lower per 1% higher energy intake of SFAs from yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]), cheese (HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96-1.00]), and fish (HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.75-1.00]), but higher for SFAs from red meat (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.02-1.12]) and butter (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00-1.04]). Conclusions This observational study found no strong associations of total fatty acids, SFAs, monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids, with incident CHD. By contrast, we found associations of SFAs with CHD in opposite directions dependent on the food source. These findings should be further confirmed, but support public health recommendations to consider food sources alongside the macronutrients they contain, and suggest the importance of the overall food matrix.

Estimating dose-response relationships for vitamin D with coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality: observational and Mendelian randomisation analyses

BACKGROUND

Randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality have generally reported null findings. However, generalisability of results to individuals with low vitamin D status is unclear. We aimed to characterise dose-response relationships between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality in observational and Mendelian randomisation frameworks.

METHODS

Observational analyses were undertaken using data from 33 prospective studies comprising 500 962 individuals with no known history of coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline. Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed in four population-based cohort studies (UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD, and two Copenhagen population-based studies) comprising 386 406 middle-aged individuals of European ancestries, including 33 546 people who developed coronary heart disease, 18 166 people who had a stroke, and 27 885 people who died. Primary outcomes were coronary heart disease, defined as fatal ischaemic heart disease (International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code I20-I25) or non-fatal myocardial infarction (I21-I23); stroke, defined as any cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69); and all-cause mortality.

FINDINGS

Observational analyses suggested inverse associations between incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality outcomes with 25(OH)D concentration at low 25(OH)D concentrations. In population-wide genetic analyses, there were no associations of genetically-predicted 25(OH)D with coronary heart disease, stroke, or all-cause mortality. However, for the participants with vitamin D deficiency (25[OH]D concentration <25 nmol/L), genetic analyses provided strong evidence for an inverse association with all-cause mortality (odds ratio [OR] per 10 nmol/L increase in genetically-predicted 25[OH]D concentration 0·69 [95% CI 0·59-0·80]; p<0·0001) and non-significant inverse associations for stroke (0·85 [0·70-1·02], p=0·09) and coronary heart disease (0·89 [0·76-1·04]; p=0·14). A finer stratification of participants found inverse associations between genetically-predicted 25(OH)D concentrations and all-cause mortality up to around 40 nmol/L.

INTERPRETATION

Stratified Mendelian randomisation analyses suggest a causal relationship between 25(OH)D concentrations and mortality for individuals with low vitamin D status. Our findings have implications for the design of vitamin D supplementation trials, and potential disease prevention strategies.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Health Data Research UK, Cancer Research UK, and International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Application of BRAFO-tiered approach for health benefit-risk assessment of dark tea consumption in China

Dark tea, a unique tea fermented primarily in China, has numerous potential beneficial effects. However, harmful substances present in dark tea have provoked significant concern. To conduct a quantitative benefit-risk assessment of dark tea for Chinese residents and provide guidance on rational consumption, a framework of Benefit-Risk Analysis for Foods (BRAFO) and meta-analysis was applied to construct a disability-adjusted life year (DALY). Based on the BRAFO-tiered approach, a reference scenario (no intake) and an alternative scenario (intake of 3 cups/day) were determined. The overall health impacts of dark tea were simulated by comparing the risks of fluoride and AF with benefits of reduced-risk to coronary heart disease (CHD) and diabetes in different scenarios. Three cups of fermented tea consumed per day decreased risks of CHD and diabetes by 8.16% and 12.77% respectively. After quantitative integration of information, the ultimate net health effect was found to be -1958.827 illustrating that the benefits of drinking three cups of dark tea per day outweigh the risks. However, considering the uncertainties in the process, decision-makers should proceed with caution, consulting additional well-conducted studies and further managing harmful substances in dark tea.

Moment estimation method of parameters in additive measurement error model

BACKGROUND

In nutritional epidemiology, covariates in some studies such as the EPIC are prone to measurement error. Estimation of unknown parameters in most measurement error models for food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and nutrient biomarkers requires replicated measurements. But, the EPIC-InterAct Study did not collect replicated measurements for FFQ or 24-hour dietary recalls (24HR). The method of correcting measurement error in this case is worth studying.

METHODS

A moment method is applied to estimate unknown parameters of the proposed error model with correlated errors between biased measurements of FFQ and 24HR. Then, correction factor and reliability ratio of each error-prone nutrient can be obtained correspondingly. Afterwards, regression calibration (RC) under a Cox model is used to correct measurement error of nutrients of interest in the EPIC-InterAct data.

RESULTS

Compared to the naive estimation, estimation results for dietary intakes could be very different when we take measurement error into consideration. Using RC as the correction method, hazard ratios (HR) of vegetable plus fruit, fat and energy for males become 1.01 (95% CI 0.75-1.35), 1.30 (95% CI 1.12-1.51) and 1.16 (95% CI 1.04-1.28), respectively, and HR of energy for females becomes 0.99 (95% CI 0.91-1.08). These HRs are greatly different from those by naive estimation.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there is no repeated measurement for FFQ and 24HR, we can still estimate all unknown parameters in our proposed error model under four assumptions and then correct measurement error in nutrients of interest in EPIC-InterAct Study by RC for avoiding some misleading results from naive estimation.

Estimating the hazard rate difference from case-cohort studies

The case-cohort design, among many two-phase sampling designs, substantially reduces the cost of an epidemiological study by selecting more informative participants within the full cohort for expensive variable measurements. Despite their benefits, additive hazards models, which estimate hazard differences, have rarely been used for the analysis of case-cohort studies due to the lack of software and application examples. In this paper, we describe a newly developed estimation method that fits the additive hazards models to general two-phase sampling studies along with the R package addhazard that implements it. It allows for missing covariates among cases, cohort stratification, robust variances, and the incorporation of auxiliary information from the full cohort to enhance inference precision. We demonstrate the use of this tool to estimate the association of the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) with biomarkers high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A₂ (Lp-PLA₂) by analyzing the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, which adopted a two-phase sampling design for studying these two biomarkers. We show that the use of auxiliary variables from the full cohort based on calibration techniques improves the precision of the hazard difference being estimated. We observe a synergistic effect of the two biomarkers among participants with lower LDL cholesterol (LDL-C): the CHD hazard rate attributable to the combined action of high hs-CRP and high Lp-PLA₂ exceeded the sum of the CHD hazard rate attributable to each one independently by 11.58 (95% CI 2.16-21.01) cases per 1000 person-years. With higher LDL-C, we observe the CHD hazard rate attributable to the combined action of high hs-CRP and medium Lp-PLA₂ was less than the sum of their individual effects by 13.42 (95% CI 2.44-24.40) cases per 1000 person-years. This demonstration serves the dual purposes of illustrating analysis techniques and providing insights about the utility of hs-CRP and Lp-PLA₂ for identifying the high-risk population of CHD that the traditional risk factors such as the LDL-C may miss. Epidemiologists are encouraged to use this new tool to analyze other case-cohort studies and incorporate auxiliary variables embedded in the full cohort in their analysis.

Epidemiology and risk factors for diabetes in the suburbs of Beijing: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to detect the incidence and risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) development in the suburbs of Beijing.

DESIGN

Cohort study with record linkage to incidence data.

SETTING

We performed a 5-year follow-up study in a randomly selected suburban population including 1114 subjects aged ≥18 years living in the suburbs of Beijing.

PARTICIPANTS

118 subjects with T2DM at baseline according to the 1999 WHO criteria were excluded, and 895 subjects attended the follow-up assessment in 2012. The non-diabetic subjects at baseline were classified into two groups: normal glucose tolerance (NGT) group (n=673) and impaired glucose regulation (IGR) group(n=222).The incidence and risk factors of diabetes development in each group were investigated.

OUTCOME MEASURES

A structured questionnaire about sociodemographic characteristics, height, weight, waist circumference, hip circumference, blood pressure, oral glucose tolerance test and serum lipid levels.

RESULTS

Out of the 895 non-diabetic subjects, 67 developed diabetes with 29 in the NGT group and 38 in the IGR group, respectively, after a 5-year follow-up, producing an overall 5-year cumulative incidence of diabetes of 13%. The incidence of diabetes was 15.5 cases per 1000 person-years, 8.9 cases per 1000 person-years in the NGT group and 35.7 cases per 1000 person-years in the IGR group (p<0.01; RR 4.03; 95% CI 2.58 to 9.29). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that the risk factors for diabetes development included fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in the NGT group, and sex, the waist-to-hip ratio, FPG and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in the IGR group.

CONCLUSIONS

During a mean follow-up of 5.0 years, the incidence of T2DM in the suburbs of Beijing was 15.5 per 1000 person-years. Early prevention of diabetes should focus on IGR subjects. Elevated FPG predicted diabetes development for both NGT and IGR subjects. Female sex, overweight/obesity and DBP are risk factors for diabetes development in IGR subjects.

Plant foods, dietary fibre and risk of ischaemic heart disease in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence indicates that diets rich in plant foods are associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is sparse information on fruit and vegetable subtypes and sources of dietary fibre. This study examined the associations of major plant foods, their subtypes and dietary fibre with risk of IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis of 490 311 men and women without a history of myocardial infarction or stroke at recruitment (12.6 years of follow-up, n cases = 8504), in 10 European countries. Dietary intake was assessed using validated questionnaires, calibrated with 24-h recalls. Multivariable Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of IHD.

RESULTS

There was a lower risk of IHD with a higher intake of fruit and vegetables combined [HR per 200 g/day higher intake 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-0.99, P-trend = 0.009], and with total fruits (per 100 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.021). There was no evidence for a reduced risk for fruit subtypes, except for bananas. Risk was lower with higher intakes of nuts and seeds (per 10 g/day 0.90, 0.82-0.98, P-trend = 0.020), total fibre (per 10 g/day 0.91, 0.85-0.98, P-trend = 0.015), fruit and vegetable fibre (per 4 g/day 0.95, 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.022) and fruit fibre (per 2 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.045). No associations were observed between vegetables, vegetables subtypes, legumes, cereals and IHD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large prospective study, we found some small inverse associations between plant foods and IHD risk, with fruit and vegetables combined being the most strongly inversely associated with risk. Whether these small associations are causal remains unclear.

Interaction Between GAD65 Antibodies and Dietary Fish Intake or Plasma Phospholipid n-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids on Incident Adult-Onset Diabetes: The EPIC-InterAct Study

OBJECTIVE

Islet autoimmunity is associated with diabetes incidence. We investigated whether there was an interaction between dietary fish intake or plasma phospholipid n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) concentration with the 65-kDa isoform of GAD (GAD65) antibody positivity on the risk of developing adult-onset diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used prospective data on 11,247 incident cases of adult-onset diabetes and 14,288 noncases from the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study conducted in eight European countries. Baseline plasma samples were analyzed for GAD65 antibodies and phospholipid n-3 PUFAs. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident diabetes in relation to GAD65 antibody status and tertiles of plasma phospholipid n-3 PUFA or fish intake were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Additive (proportion attributable to interaction [AP]) and multiplicative interactions between GAD65 antibody positivity (≥65 units/mL) and low fish/n-3 PUFA were assessed.

RESULTS

The hazard of diabetes in antibody-positive individuals with low intake of total and fatty fish, respectively, was significantly elevated (HR 2.52 [95% CI 1.76-3.63] and 2.48 [1.79-3.45]) compared with people who were GAD65 antibody negative and had high fish intake, with evidence of additive (AP 0.44 [95% CI 0.16-0.72] and 0.48 [0.24-0.72]) and multiplicative (P = 0.0465 and 0.0103) interactions. Individuals with high GAD65 antibody levels (≥167.5 units/mL) and low total plasma phospholipid n-3 PUFAs had a more than fourfold higher hazard of diabetes (HR 4.26 [2.70-6.72]) and an AP of 0.46 (0.12-0.80) compared with antibody-negative individuals with high n-3 PUFAs.

CONCLUSIONS

High fish intake or relative plasma phospholipid n-3 PUFA concentrations may partially counteract the increased diabetes risk conferred by GAD65 antibody positivity.

Plasma Vitamin C and Type 2 Diabetes: Genome-Wide Association Study and Mendelian Randomization Analysis in European Populations

OBJECTIVE

Higher plasma vitamin C levels are associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk, but whether this association is causal is uncertain. To investigate this, we studied the association of genetically predicted plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted genome-wide association studies of plasma vitamin C among 52,018 individuals of European ancestry to discover novel genetic variants. We performed Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate the association of genetically predicted differences in plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes in up to 80,983 case participants and 842,909 noncase participants. We compared this estimate with the observational association between plasma vitamin C and incident type 2 diabetes, including 8,133 case participants and 11,073 noncase participants.

RESULTS

We identified 11 genomic regions associated with plasma vitamin C (P < 5 × 10-8), with the strongest signal at SLC23A1, and 10 novel genetic loci including SLC23A3, CHPT1, BCAS3, SNRPF, RER1, MAF, GSTA5, RGS14, AKT1, and FADS1. Plasma vitamin C was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per SD 0.88; 95% CI 0.82, 0.94), but there was no association between genetically predicted plasma vitamin C (excluding FADS1 variant due to its apparent pleiotropic effect) and type 2 diabetes (1.03; 95% CI 0.96, 1.10).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate discordance between biochemically measured and genetically predicted plasma vitamin C levels in the association with type 2 diabetes among European populations. The null Mendelian randomization findings provide no strong evidence to suggest the use of vitamin C supplementation for type 2 diabetes prevention.

Genome-wide association analysis of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-InterAct study

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a global public health challenge. Whilst the advent of genome-wide association studies has identified >400 genetic variants associated with T2D, our understanding of its biological mechanisms and translational insights is still limited. The EPIC-InterAct project, centred in 8 countries in the European Prospective Investigations into Cancer and Nutrition study, is one of the largest prospective studies of T2D. Established as a nested case-cohort study to investigate the interplay between genetic and lifestyle behavioural factors on the risk of T2D, a total of 12,403 individuals were identified as incident T2D cases, and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals was selected from a larger cohort of 340,234 participants with a follow-up time of 3.99 million person-years. We describe the results from a genome-wide association analysis between more than 8.9 million SNPs and T2D risk among 22,326 individuals (9,978 cases and 12,348 non-cases) from the EPIC-InterAct study. The summary statistics to be shared provide a valuable resource to facilitate further investigations into the genetics of T2D.

Replacement of Red and Processed Meat With Other Food Sources of Protein and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in European Populations: The EPIC-InterAct Study

OBJECTIVE

There is sparse evidence for the association of suitable food substitutions for red and processed meat on the risk of type 2 diabetes. We modeled the association between replacing red and processed meat with other protein sources and the risk of type 2 diabetes and estimated its population impact.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-InterAct case cohort included 11,741 individuals with type 2 diabetes and a subcohort of 15,450 participants in eight countries. We modeled the replacement of self-reported red and processed meat with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, cheese, cereals, yogurt, milk, and nuts. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for incident type 2 diabetes were estimated by Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

There was a lower hazard for type 2 diabetes for the modeled replacement of red and processed meat (50 g/day) with cheese (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.97) (30 g/day), yogurt (0.90, 0.86-0.95) (70 g/day), nuts (0.90, 0.84-0.96) (10 g/day), or cereals (0.92, 0.88-0.96) (30 g/day) but not for replacements with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, or milk. If a causal association is assumed, replacing red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, or nuts could prevent 8.8%, 8.3%, or 7.5%, respectively, of new cases of type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Replacement of red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, nuts, or cereals was associated with a lower rate of type 2 diabetes. Substituting red and processed meat by other protein sources may contribute to the prevention of incident type 2 diabetes in European populations.

The association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D metabolites and type 2 diabetes in European populations: A meta-analysis and Mendelian randomisation analysis

BACKGROUND

Prior research suggested a differential association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) metabolites with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 inversely associated with T2D, but the epimeric form (C3-epi-25(OH)D3) positively associated with T2D. Whether or not these observational associations are causal remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the potential causality of these associations using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for total 25(OH)D (N = 120,618), 25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562), and C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562) in participants of European descent (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]-InterAct study, EPIC-Norfolk study, EPIC-CVD study, Ely study, and the SUNLIGHT consortium). We identified genetic variants for MR analysis to investigate the causal association of the 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D (including 80,983 T2D cases and 842,909 non-cases). We also estimated the observational association of 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D by performing random effects meta-analysis of results from previous studies and results from the EPIC-InterAct study. We identified 10 genetic loci associated with total 25(OH)D, 7 loci associated with 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci associated with C3-epi-25(OH)D3. Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, each 1-standard deviation (SD) higher level of 25(OH)D was associated with a 20% lower risk of T2D (relative risk [RR]: 0.80; 95% CI 0.77, 0.84; p < 0.001), but a genetically predicted 1-SD increase in 25(OH)D was not significantly associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89, 1.03; p = 0.23); this result was consistent across sensitivity analyses. In EPIC-InterAct, 25(OH)D3 (per 1-SD) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (RR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.77, 0.86; p < 0.001), while C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (above versus below lower limit of quantification) was positively associated with T2D (RR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.03, 1.22; p = 0.006), but neither 25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.93, 1.01; p = 0.14) nor C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.93, 1.04; p = 0.53) was causally associated with T2D risk in the MR analysis. Main limitations include the lack of a non-linear MR analysis and of the generalisability of the current findings from European populations to other populations of different ethnicities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found discordant associations of biochemically measured and genetically predicted differences in blood 25(OH)D with T2D risk. The findings based on MR analysis in a large sample of European ancestry do not support a causal association of total 25(OH)D or 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D and argue against the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of T2D.

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for logistic regression with covariate measurement error

In nutritional epidemiology, dietary intake assessed with a food frequency questionnaire is prone to measurement error. Ignoring the measurement error in covariates causes estimates to be biased and leads to a loss of power. In this paper, we consider an additive error model according to the characteristics of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct Study data, and derive an approximate maximum likelihood estimation (AMLE) for covariates with measurement error under logistic regression. This method can be regarded as an adjusted version of regression calibration and can provide an approximate consistent estimator. Asymptotic normality of this estimator is established under regularity conditions, and simulation studies are conducted to empirically examine the finite sample performance of the proposed method. We apply AMLE to deal with measurement errors in some interested nutrients of the EPIC-InterAct Study under a sensitivity analysis framework.

Glycemic index, glycemic load, and risk of coronary heart disease: a pan-European cohort study

BACKGROUND

High carbohydrate intake raises blood triglycerides, glucose, and insulin; reduces HDLs; and may increase risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Epidemiological studies indicate that high dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) are associated with increased CHD risk.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine whether dietary GI, GL, and available carbohydrates are associated with CHD risk in both sexes.

METHODS

This large prospective study-the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-consisted of 338,325 participants who completed a dietary questionnaire. HRs with 95% CIs for a CHD event, in relation to intake of GI, GL, and carbohydrates, were estimated using covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

After 12.8 y (median), 6378 participants had experienced a CHD event. High GL was associated with greater CHD risk [HR 1.16 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.31) highest vs. lowest quintile, p-trend 0.035; HR 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.29) per 50 g/day of GL intake]. The association between GL and CHD risk was evident in subjects with BMI (in kg/m2) ≥25 [HR: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.35) per 50 g/d] but not in those with BMI <25 [HR: 1.09 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.22) per 50 g/d) (P-interaction = 0.022). The GL-CHD association did not differ between men [HR: 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.30) per 50 g/d] and women [HR: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.40) per 50 g/d] (test for interaction not significant). GI was associated with CHD risk only in the continuous model [HR: 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.08) per 5 units/d]. High available carbohydrate was associated with greater CHD risk [HR: 1.11 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.18) per 50 g/d]. High sugar intake was associated with greater CHD risk [HR: 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17) per 50 g/d].

CONCLUSIONS

This large pan-European study provides robust additional support for the hypothesis that a diet that induces a high glucose response is associated with greater CHD risk.

The associations of major foods and fibre with risks of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke: a prospective study of 418 329 participants in the EPIC cohort across nine European countries

AIM

To investigate the associations between major foods and dietary fibre with subtypes of stroke in a large prospective cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analysed data on 418 329 men and women from nine European countries, with an average of 12.7 years of follow-up. Diet was assessed using validated country-specific questionnaires which asked about habitual intake over the past year, calibrated using 24-h recalls. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke associated with consumption of red and processed meat, poultry, fish, dairy foods, eggs, cereals, fruit and vegetables, legumes, nuts and seeds, and dietary fibre. For ischaemic stroke (4281 cases), lower risks were observed with higher consumption of fruit and vegetables combined (HR; 95% CI per 200 g/day higher intake, 0.87; 0.82-0.93, P-trend < 0.001), dietary fibre (per 10 g/day, 0.77; 0.69-0.86, P-trend < 0.001), milk (per 200 g/day, 0.95; 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.02), yogurt (per 100 g/day, 0.91; 0.85-0.97, P-trend = 0.004), and cheese (per 30 g/day, 0.88; 0.81-0.97, P-trend = 0.008), while higher risk was observed with higher red meat consumption which attenuated when adjusted for the other statistically significant foods (per 50 g/day, 1.07; 0.96-1.20, P-trend = 0.20). For haemorrhagic stroke (1430 cases), higher risk was associated with higher egg consumption (per 20 g/day, 1.25; 1.09-1.43, P-trend = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Risk of ischaemic stroke was inversely associated with consumption of fruit and vegetables, dietary fibre, and dairy foods, while risk of haemorrhagic stroke was positively associated with egg consumption. The apparent differences in the associations highlight the importance of examining ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke subtypes separately.

Association of plasma biomarkers of fruit and vegetable intake with incident type 2 diabetes: EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study in eight European countries

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of plasma vitamin C and carotenoids, as indicators of fruit and vegetable intake, with the risk of type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

Prospective case-cohort study.

SETTING

Populations from eight European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

9754 participants with incident type 2 diabetes, and a subcohort of 13 662 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort of 340 234 participants: EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incident type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

In a multivariable adjusted model, higher plasma vitamin C was associated with a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per standard deviation 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 0.89). A similar inverse association was shown for total carotenoids (hazard ratio per standard deviation 0.75, 0.68 to 0.82). A composite biomarker score (split into five equal groups), comprising vitamin C and individual carotenoids, was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes with hazard ratios 0.77, 0.66, 0.59, and 0.50 for groups 2-5 compared with group 1 (the lowest group). Self-reported median fruit and vegetable intake was 274 g/day, 396 g/day, and 508 g/day for participants in categories defined by groups 1, 3, and 5 of the composite biomarker score, respectively. One standard deviation difference in the composite biomarker score, equivalent to a 66 (95% confidence interval 61 to 71) g/day difference in total fruit and vegetable intake, was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.75 (0.67 to 0.83). This would be equivalent to an absolute risk reduction of 0.95 per 1000 person years of follow up if achieved across an entire population with the characteristics of the eight European countries included in this analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate an inverse association between plasma vitamin C, carotenoids, and their composite biomarker score, and incident type 2 diabetes in different European countries. These biomarkers are objective indicators of fruit and vegetable consumption, and suggest that diets rich in even modestly higher fruit and vegetable consumption could help to prevent development of type 2 diabetes.

Autoimmunity plays a role in the onset of diabetes after 40 years of age

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Type 1 and type 2 diabetes differ with respect to pathophysiological factors such as beta cell function, insulin resistance and phenotypic appearance, but there may be overlap between the two forms of diabetes. However, there are relatively few prospective studies that have characterised the relationship between autoimmunity and incident diabetes. We investigated associations of antibodies against the 65 kDa isoform of GAD (GAD65) with type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores and incident diabetes in adults in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct, a case-cohort study nested in the EPIC cohort.

METHODS

GAD65 antibodies were analysed in EPIC participants (over 40 years of age and free of known diabetes at baseline) by radioligand binding assay in a random subcohort (n = 15,802) and in incident diabetes cases (n = 11,981). Type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes genetic risk scores were calculated. Associations between GAD65 antibodies and incident diabetes were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression.

RESULTS

GAD65 antibody positivity at baseline was associated with development of diabetes during a median follow-up time of 10.9 years (HR for GAD65 antibody positive vs negative 1.78; 95% CI 1.43, 2.20) after adjustment for sex, centre, physical activity, smoking status and education. The genetic risk score for type 1 diabetes but not type 2 diabetes was associated with GAD65 antibody positivity in both the subcohort (OR per SD genetic risk 1.24; 95% CI 1.03, 1.50) and incident cases (OR 1.97; 95% CI 1.72, 2.26) after adjusting for age and sex. The risk of incident diabetes in those in the top tertile of the type 1 diabetes genetic risk score who were also GAD65 antibody positive was 3.23 (95% CI 2.10, 4.97) compared with all other individuals, suggesting that 1.8% of incident diabetes in adults was attributable to this combination of risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our study indicates that incident diabetes in adults has an element of autoimmune aetiology. Thus, there might be a reason to re-evaluate the present subclassification of diabetes in adulthood.

Lifestyle factors and risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases: a multinational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although lifestyle factors have been studied in relation to individual non-communicable diseases (NCDs), their association with development of a subsequent NCD, defined as multimorbidity, has been scarcely investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between five lifestyle factors and incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, 291,778 participants (64% women) from seven European countries, mostly aged 43 to 58 years and free of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at recruitment, were included. Incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases was defined as developing subsequently two diseases including first cancer at any site, CVD, and T2D in an individual. Multi-state modelling based on Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of developing cancer, CVD, or T2D, and subsequent transitions to multimorbidity, in relation to body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and their combination as a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score. Cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) were estimated to compute 10-year absolute risks for transitions from healthy to cancer at any site, CVD (both fatal and non-fatal), or T2D, and to subsequent multimorbidity after each of the three NCDs.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11 years, 1910 men and 1334 women developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. A higher HLI, reflecting healthy lifestyles, was strongly inversely associated with multimorbidity, with hazard ratios per 3-unit increment of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.81), 0.84 (0.79 to 0.90), and 0.82 (0.77 to 0.88) after cancer, CVD, and T2D, respectively. After T2D, the 10-year absolute risks of multimorbidity were 40% and 25% for men and women, respectively, with unhealthy lifestyle, and 30% and 18% for men and women with healthy lifestyles.

CONCLUSION

Pre-diagnostic healthy lifestyle behaviours were strongly inversely associated with the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases, and with the prognosis of these diseases by reducing risk of multimorbidity.

Residential neighbourhood greenspace is associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease: A prospective cohort study

Background

Living in a greener neighbourhood may reduce the risk of developing incident cardiovascular disease, but evidence is limited by reliance on cross-sectional comparisons. We use data from a longitudinal study with a time-independent measure of risk to explore the association between exposure to greenspace and cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Data was from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk UK cohort, baseline 1993–1997 (n = 24,420). Neighbourhoods were defined as 800m radius zones around participants’ home, according to their home postcode (zip code) in the year 2000. Greenspace exposure was identified using classified satellite imagery. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression examined associations between greenspace and incident cardiovascular disease. Mediation analysis assessed if physical activity mediated associations, whilst modification by rurality, socio-economic status and age was explored.

Results

The mean age of participants was 59.2 years at baseline, 54.7% were female, and mean follow-up time was 14.5 years. Individuals living in the greenest neighbourhood quartile had a 7% lower relative hazard of developing cardiovascular disease than other neighbourhoods (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.88, 0.97; p = 0.003) after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, prevalent diabetes and socio-economic status (SES). Physical activity did not mediate the relationship (greenest compared to the least green quartile HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.416). Models predicted incidence of cardiovascular disease in the least green neighbourhoods (19.4% greenspace on average) would fall by 4.8% (95% CI 1.6%, 8.2% p = 0.003) if they were as green as the average neighbourhood (59.0% greenspace). Occupation moderated the relationship, whereby exposure to greenspace was not associated with incident CVD for participants engaged in manual occupations.

Conclusions

Greener home neighbourhoods may protect against risk of cardiovascular disease even after accounting for SES, whilst the mechanism does not appear to be strongly associated with physical activity. Putative causal mechanisms require investigation.

The Role of Physical Therapists in Fighting the Type 2 Diabetes Epidemic

BACKGROUND

In 2014, the total prevalence of diabetes was estimated to be 422 million people worldwide. Due to the aging population and continued increase in obesity rates, the prevalence is expected to rise to 592 million by 2035. Diabetes can lead to several complications, including cardiovascular disease, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, nephropathy, neuropathy, retinopathy, lower extremity amputation, and musculoskeletal impairments.

CLINICAL QUESTION

Up to 80% of patients referred for outpatient physical therapy have diabetes or are at risk for diabetes, providing an opportunity for physical therapists to intervene. Therefore, we asked, "What is the role of physical therapists in fighting the diabetes epidemic?"

KEY RESULTS

Physical therapists commonly prescribe physical activity for the treatment of diabetes and other chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and osteoarthritis. Physical therapists may also screen for risk factors for diabetes and diabetes-related complications and modify traditional musculoskeletal exercise prescription accordingly. Physical therapists must advocate for regular physical activity as a key component of the treatment of chronic diseases in all patient interactions.

CLINICAL APPLICATION

This commentary (1) describes the diabetes epidemic and the health impact of diabetes and diabetes-related complications, (2) highlights the physical therapist's role as front-line provider, and (3) provides recommendations for physical therapists in screening for diabetes risk factors and diabetes-related complications and considerations for patient management. We focus on type 2 diabetes. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2020;50(1):5-16. Epub 28 Nov 2019. doi:10.2519/jospt.2020.9154.

Epigenome-Wide Association Study of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in a British Population: EPIC-Norfolk Study

Epigenetic changes may contribute substantially to risks of diseases of aging. Previous studies reported seven methylation variable positions (MVPs) robustly associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, their causal roles in T2DM are unclear. In an incident T2DM case-cohort study nested within the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort, we used whole blood DNA collected at baseline, up to 11 years before T2DM onset, to investigate the role of methylation in the etiology of T2DM. We identified 15 novel MVPs with robust associations with incident T2DM and robustly confirmed three MVPs identified previously (near to TXNIP, ABCG1, and SREBF1). All 18 MVPs showed directionally consistent associations with incident and prevalent T2DM in independent studies. Further conditional analyses suggested that the identified epigenetic signals appear related to T2DM via glucose and obesity-related pathways acting before the collection of baseline samples. We integrated genome-wide genetic data to identify methylation-associated quantitative trait loci robustly associated with 16 of the 18 MVPs and found one MVP, cg00574958 at CPT1A, with a possible direct causal role in T2DM. None of the implicated genes were previously highlighted by genetic association studies, suggesting that DNA methylation studies may reveal novel biological mechanisms involved in tissue responses to glycemia.

Estimated Substitution of Tea or Coffee for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Was Associated with Lower Type 2 Diabetes Incidence in Case-Cohort Analysis across 8 European Countries in the EPIC-InterAct Study

INTRODUCTION

Beverage consumption is a modifiable risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but there is insufficient evidence to inform the suitability of substituting 1 type of beverage for another.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of T2D when consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) was replaced with consumption of fruit juice, milk, coffee, or tea.

METHODS

In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study of 8 European countries (n = 27,662, with 12,333 cases of incident T2D, 1992-2007), beverage consumption was estimated at baseline by dietary questionnaires. Using Prentice-weighted Cox regression adjusting for other beverages and potential confounders, we estimated associations of substituting 1 type of beverage for another on incident T2D.

RESULTS

Mean ± SD of estimated consumption of SSB was 55 ± 105 g/d. Means ± SDs for the other beverages were as follows: fruit juice, 59 ± 101 g/d; milk, 209 ± 203 g/d; coffee, 381 ± 372 g/d; and tea, 152 ± 282 g/d. Substituting coffee for SSBs by 250 g/d was associated with a 21% lower incidence of T2D (95% CI: 12%, 29%). The rate difference was -12.0 (95% CI: -20.0, -5.0) per 10,000 person-years among adults consuming SSBs ≥250 g/d (absolute rate = 48.3/10,000). Substituting tea for SSBs was estimated to lower T2D incidence by 22% (95% CI: 15%, 28%) or -11.0 (95% CI: -20.0, -2.6) per 10,000 person-years, whereas substituting fruit juice or milk was estimated not to alter T2D risk significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate a potential benefit of substituting coffee or tea for SSBs for the primary prevention of T2D and may help formulate public health recommendations on beverage consumption in different populations.

Development and multi-cohort validation of a clinical score for predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background and aims

Many countries lack resources to identify patients at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes mellitus (diabetes). We aimed to develop and validate a diabetes risk score based on easily accessible clinical data.

Methods

Prospective study including 5277 participants (55.0% women, 51.8±10.5 years) free of diabetes at baseline. Comparison with two other published diabetes risk scores (Balkau and Kahn clinical, respectively 5 and 8 variables) and validation on three cohorts (Europe, Iran and Mexico) was performed.

Results

After a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, 405 participants (7.7%) developed diabetes. Our score was based on age, gender, waist circumference, diabetes family history, hypertension and physical activity. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.772 for our score, vs. 0.748 (p<0.001) and 0.774 (p = 0.668) for the other two. Using a 13-point threshold, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (95% CI) of our score were 60.5 (55.5–65.3), 77.1 (75.8–78.2), 18.0 (16.0–20.1) and 95.9 (95.2–96.5) percent, respectively. Our score performed equally well or better than the other two in the Iranian [AUC 0.542 vs. 0.564 (p = 0.476) and 0.513 (p = 0.300)] and Mexican [AUC 0.791 vs. 0.672 (p<0.001) and 0.778 (p = 0.575)] cohorts. In the European cohort, it performed similarly to the Balkau score but worse than the Kahn clinical [AUC 0.788 vs. 0.793 (p = 0.091) and 0.816 (p<0.001)]. Diagnostic capacity of our score was better than the Balkau score and comparable to the Kahn clinical one.

Conclusion

Our clinically-based score shows encouraging results compared to other scores and can be used in populations with differing diabetes prevalence.

Sex-Specific Association of Circulating Ferritin Level and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

CONTEXT

Although the role of iron in the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has long been a concern, prospective studies directly linking body iron stores to T2D risk in a sex-dependent context have been inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

A systematic meta-analysis was conducted to explore the sex-specific association of circulating ferritin with T2D risk.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases to identify available prospective studies through 1 August 2018.

RESULTS

Fifteen prospective studies comprising 77,352 participants and 18,404 patients with T2D, aged 20 to 80 years, and with ∼3 to 17 years of follow-up were identified. For each 100-μg/L increment in ferritin levels of overall participants, T2D risk increased by 22% (RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.31). Of note, major heterogeneities by sex were identified, with increased ferritin level having an apparently greater effect on T2D risk in women (RR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.29 to 1.82) than in men (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.27) after exclusion of a study with high heterogeneity (41,512 men and 6974 women for sex-specific analyses; P = 0.020 for sex difference). Further nonlinear analysis between circulating ferritin and T2D risk also showed sex-dimorphic association in that the T2D risk of women was twice as strong in magnitude as that of men at the same ferritin level.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater circulating ferritin levels were independently associated with increased T2D risk, which appeared stronger among women than men. Our findings provide prospective evidence for further testing of the utility of ferritin levels in predicting T2D risk in a sex-specific manner.

Association of menopausal characteristics and risk of coronary heart disease: a pan-European case-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Earlier age at menopause has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the shape of association and role of established cardiovascular risk factors remain unclear. Therefore, we examined the associations between menopausal characteristics and CHD risk; the shape of the association between age at menopause and CHD risk; and the extent to which these associations are explained by established cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS

We used data from EPIC-CVD, a case-cohort study, which includes data from 23 centres from 10 European countries. We included only women, of whom 10 880 comprise the randomly selected sub-cohort, supplemented with 4522 cases outside the sub-cohort. We conducted Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazards regressions with age as the underlying time scale, stratified by country and adjusted for relevant confounders.

RESULTS

After confounder and intermediate adjustment, post-menopausal women were not at higher CHD risk compared with pre-menopausal women. Among post-menopausal women, earlier menopause was linearly associated with higher CHD risk [HRconfounder and intermediate adjusted per-year decrease = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.03, p = 0.001]. Women with a surgical menopause were at higher risk of CHD compared with those with natural menopause (HRconfounder-adjusted = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.10-1.42, p < 0.001), but this attenuated after additional adjustment for age at menopause and intermediates (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.96-1.29, p = 0.15). A proportion of the association was explained by cardiovascular risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Earlier and surgical menopause were associated with higher CHD risk. These associations could partially be explained by differences in conventional cardiovascular risk factors. These women might benefit from close monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors and disease.

Generalizability of a Diabetes-Associated Country-Specific Exploratory Dietary Pattern Is Feasible Across European Populations

BACKGROUND

Population-specificity of exploratory dietary patterns limits their generalizability in investigations with type 2 diabetes incidence.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to derive country-specific exploratory dietary patterns, investigate their association with type 2 diabetes incidence, and replicate diabetes-associated dietary patterns in other countries.

METHODS

Dietary intake data were used, assessed by country-specific questionnaires at baseline of 11,183 incident diabetes cases and 14,694 subcohort members (mean age 52.9 y) from 8 countries, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (mean follow-up time 6.9 y). Exploratory dietary patterns were derived by principal component analysis. HRs for incident type 2 diabetes were calculated by Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models. Diabetes-associated dietary patterns were simplified or replicated to be applicable in other countries. A meta-analysis across all countries evaluated the generalizability of the diabetes-association.

RESULTS

Two dietary patterns per country/UK-center, of which overall 3 dietary patterns were diabetes-associated, were identified. A risk-lowering French dietary pattern was not confirmed across other countries: pooled HRFrance per 1 SD: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.10. Risk-increasing dietary patterns, derived in Spain and UK-Norfolk, were confirmed, but only the latter statistically significantly: HRSpain: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.22 and HRUK-Norfolk: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.20. Respectively, this dietary pattern was characterized by relatively high intakes of potatoes, processed meat, vegetable oils, sugar, cake and cookies, and tea.

CONCLUSIONS

Only few country/center-specific dietary patterns (3 of 18) were statistically significantly associated with diabetes incidence in this multicountry European study population. One pattern, whose association with diabetes was confirmed across other countries, showed overlaps in the food groups potatoes and processed meat with identified diabetes-associated dietary patterns from other studies. The study demonstrates that replication of associations of exploratory patterns with health outcomes is feasible and a necessary step to overcome population-specificity in associations from such analyses.