The development and experience of epidemiological transition theory over four decades: a systematic review

Health and Mortality in the 19th-Century Rural United States: The Second Epidemiological Transition in Madison County, New York

OBJECTIVES

A number of studies have examined changes in mortality and health during industrialization in both the United States and Western Europe; however, most of this work has focused on urban communities. Despite theories regarding differences between rural and urban patterns of mortality at this time, few analyses of data from rural communities have been done. Our goal is to examine trends in mortality, c. 1850-1880, for a rural county in central New York State at a time when farming, the economic base of this county, was becoming commercialized and industrialization was impacting the wider region.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using census mortality records from Madison County, NY (1850-1880), we examine trends in hazards of death, survivorship, and cause of death. In order to contribute a rural perspective to this area of study, we examine trends from the mortality records at several scales: town-specific, groups of towns based on population density, and the county as a whole.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that the hazards of death decreased and survivorship increased at the county level across this 30-year period. In general, the rates of communicable diseases decreased and the rates of non-communicable diseases increased. Individual towns had variable outcomes, and higher population density towns had better apparent outcomes than those with medium and lower densities.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, mortality patterns changed noticeably during this period. These changes were likely at least partially a result of changing economic conditions, but may also have been affected by socio-spatial factors and access to healthcare, both of which continue to impact rural communities today.

Comparative risk assessment modeling of cardiovascular and all-cause burden attributable to sitting time and physical inactivity: evidence from Argentina

BACKGROUND

Although there is evidence that sitting time (ST) and insufficient physical activity (PA) are associated with premature mortality, the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality (ACM) attributable to the combined effects of ST and PA in counterfactual scenarios is limited.

METHODS

Potential impact fractions (PIFs) were used to calculate premature deaths (PDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Cause-eliminated life tables were utilized to estimate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) gains. Monte Carlo simulations were performed for uncertainty analysis.

RESULTS

The theoretical minimum risk exposure level (ST < 4 $\mathrm{h} \cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$, PA > 65 $\mathrm{min} \cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$) could prevent 16.7% of CVD deaths and 12.3% of all-cause deaths annually. This would save 669 to 2,630 DALYs per 100,000 and increase healthy life years by 0.57 to 2.94. Increasing PA to > 65 $\mathrm{min} \cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$ while maintaining ST could yield gains in HALE from 0.49 (CVD) to 2.60 (ACM) years. Reducing ST to < 4 $\mathrm{h}\cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$ while keeping PA constant could lead to gains in HALE from 0.07 (CVD) to 0.34 (ACM) years. A 50% reduction in suboptimal ST (≥ 4 $\mathrm{h}\cdot{\mathrm{d}}^{-1}$) doubled HALE gains, ranging from 0.11 to 0.63 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health decision-makers should prioritize vulnerable populations, including older adults and individuals with inadequate PA levels.

Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

As population aging intensifies, it becomes increasingly important to elucidate the casual relationship between aging and changes in population health. Therefore, our study proposed to develop a systematic attribution framework to comprehensively evaluate the health impacts of population aging.

METHODS

We used health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) to measure quality of life and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) to quantify the burden of disease for the population of Guangzhou. The HALE and DALY projections were generated using both the Bayesian age-period-cohort models and the population prediction models. Changes in HALE and DALY between 2010-2020 and 2020-2030 were decomposed to isolate the effects of population aging. Three scenarios were analyzed  to examine the relative relationship between disease burden and population aging. In Scenarios 1 and 2, the disease burden rates in 2030 were assumed to  either remain at 2020 levels or follow historical trends. In Scenario 3, it was assumed that the absolute numbers of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) in 2030 would remain unchanged from the 2020 levels.

RESULTS

Between 2010 and 2020, 56.24% [69.73%] of the increase in male [female, values in brackets] HALE was attributable to the mortality effects in the population aged 60 and over, while - 3.74% [- 9.29%] was attributable to the disability effects. The increase in DALY caused by changes in age structure accounted for 72.01% [46.68%] of the total increase in DALY. From 2020 to 2030, 61.43% [69.05%] of the increase in HALE is projected to result from the mortality effects in the population aged 60 and over, while - 3.88% [4.73%] will be attributable to the disability effects. The increase in DALY due to changes in age structure is expected to account for 102.93% [100.99%] of the total increase in DALY. In Scenario 1, YLL are projected to increase by 45.0% [54.7%], and YLD by 31.8% [33.8%], compared to 2020. In Scenario 2, YLL in 2030 is expected to decrease by - 2.9% [- 1.3%], while YLD will increase by 12.7% [14.7%] compared to 2020. In Scenario 3, the expected YLL rates and YLD rates in 2030 would need to be reduced by 15.3% [15.4%] and 15.4% [15.6%], respectively, compared to 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

The disability effects among the elderly population hinder improvements in quality of life, while changes in age structure are the primary driver of disease burden accumulation. To mitigate the excess disease burden caused by population aging, it is essential to achieve a reduction of more than 15% in the disease burden by 2030 compared to 2020. Our proposed attribution framework evaluates the health impacts of population aging across two dimensions: quality of life and disease burden. This framework enables comparisons of these effects over time and across different regions.

Association between changes in thyroid hormones and incident type 2 diabetes using joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event data: more than a decade follow up in the Tehran thyroid study

Background

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a significant public health challenge, contributing to considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide, which necessitates urgent preventive measures. Thyroid disorders, prevalent in many individuals, are intricately linked to metabolic health, yet studies on their relationship with T2DM yield inconsistent results-some suggesting an increased risk with abnormal thyroid hormone levels, while others indicate potential protective effects. This study investigated the association between changes in serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) levels and the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Methods

Data from 1938 individuals aged ≥20 in the Tehran Thyroid Study cohort were used, spanning four examination cycles from 1999 to 2012, with three-year intervals. TSH and FT4 levels were log-transformed and modeled as time-varying exposures to study their association with incident T2DM.

Results

During a median follow-up of 9.43 years, 135 new T2DM cases were identified. The multivariable-adjusted joint model (JM) revealed that each unit increase in log-transformed TSH level was associated with a 25% decrease in T2DM incidence [HRs (95% CI): 0.75 (0.64-0.90)]. Conversely, each unit increase in FT4 level showed a marginally significant higher risk [1.06 (0.99-1.13); p-value=0.06].

Conclusion

The findings of this study suggest that dynamic changes in serum thyroid hormones are associated with the development of T2DM. Rising TSH and decreasing FT4 over time are associated with a lower risk of diabetes. These findings suggest a complex interplay between thyroid function and the risk of T2DM, emphasizing the importance of monitoring thyroid hormone levels as a part of T2DM prevention strategies.

Patterns of change in the association between socioeconomic status and body mass index distribution in India, 1999-2021

Background

Body mass index (BMI) is an important indicator of human health. However, trends in socioeconomic inequalities in BMI over time throughout India are understudied. Filling this gap will elucidate which socioeconomic groups are still at risk for adverse BMI values.

Methods

This repeated cross-sectional study analysed four rounds of India's National Family Health Surveys (1998-1999, 2005-2006, 2015-2016, and 2019-2021). The outcome was BMI categories, measured in kilogram per metres squared (kg/m2), defined as severely/moderately thin (<17.0 kg/m2), mildly thin (17.0-18.4 kg/m2), normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m2), and obese (≥30.0 kg/m2). We examined the prevalence, standardised absolute change, and odds ratios estimated by multivariable regression models by household wealth and levels of education, two important measures of socioeconomic status (SES).

Results

The study population consisted of 1 244 149 women and 227 585 men. We found that those in the lowest SES categories were more likely to be severely/moderately thin or mildly thin. Conversely, those in the highest SES groups were more likely to be overweight or obese. The gradients were steepest for wealth, and this was substantiated by the results of regression models for every wave. There has been a decline in the difference in the prevalence of severely/moderately thin or mildly thin between SES groups when comparing the years 1999 and 2021.

Conclusions

SES-based inequalities in BMI were smaller in 2021 compared to 1999. However, those in low SES groups were most likely to be severely/moderately thin or mildly thin while those in high SES groups were more likely to be overweight or obese. Future research should explore the pathways that link SES with BMI.

The effects of substance use on non-communicable diseases among older adults aged 60 and above in the North-eastern States of India

INTRODUCTION

The North-eastern region of India has a relatively higher prevalence of substance use, which together with poor dietary practices and a lack of physical activity is one of the key risk factors for NCDs among older adults in the region. Understanding the prevalence of NCDs and their relationship to substance use can help develop preventive strategies and sensitization in North-eastern India.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence of NCDs and the strength of the association of substance abuse among the geriatric population of North-eastern states in India, for the development of preventive strategies.

METHODS

Data from the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI Wave-I, 2017-18) were drawn to develop this paper. The bi-variate and binary logistic regression analyses were carried out to predict the association between non-communicable diseases and substance use adjusting select socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

The paper revealed the prevalence of NCDs among urban people (61.45%) is higher than among rural people (42.45%). Hypertension (37.29%) can be seen as the most prevalent disease among the following given NCDs followed by Diabetes (8.94%). The chances of having Cancer are nineteen times higher (OR = 19.8; C.I. = 18.82-20.83) if an individual has past smoking behaviour after controlling for socio-demographic and physical activity variables.

CONCLUSION

Since, the high prevalence of hypertension correlated with the high level of substance abuse, require immediate attention to develop appropriate intervention strategies for its control (substance abuse) and prevention of hypertension. In a lower middle-income country like India, preventive measures, rather than curative measures will be cost-effective and helpful.

HIV, malnutrition, and noncommunicable disease epidemics among tuberculosis-affected households in east and southern Africa: A cross-sectional analysis of the ERASE-TB cohort

BACKGROUND

As a result of shared social and structural risk factors, people in households affected by tuberculosis may have an increased risk of chronic conditions; at the same time, tuberculosis screening may be an opportunity for interventions. We sought to describe the prevalence of HIV, nutritional disorders, and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) among members of tuberculosis-affected households in 3 African countries.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A part of a multicountry cohort study, we screened for tuberculosis, HIV, nutritional disorders (underweight, anaemia, overweight/obesity), and NCDs (diabetes, hypertension, and chronic lung disease) among members of tuberculosis-affected households aged ≥10 years in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. We describe the prevalence of these conditions, their co-occurence within individuals (multimorbidity) and household-level clustering. Of 2,109 household contacts recruited, 93% (n = 1,958, from 786 households) had complete data and were included in the analysis. Sixty-two percent were female, median age was 27 years, and 0.7% (n = 14) were diagnosed with co-prevalent tuberculosis. Six percent of household members (n = 120) had previous tuberculosis, 15% (n = 294) were living with HIV, 10% (n = 194) had chronic lung disease, and 18% (n = 347) were anaemic. Nine percent of adults (n = 127) had diabetes by HbA1c criteria, 32% (n = 439) had hypertension. By body mass index criteria, 18% household members (n = 341) were underweight while 29% (n = 549) were overweight or obese. Almost half the household members (n = 658) had at least 1 modifiable tuberculosis risk factor. Sixty-one percent of adults (n = 822) had at least 1 chronic condition, 1 in 4 had multimorbidity. While most people with HIV knew their status and were on treatment, people with NCDs were usually undiagnosed and untreated. Limitations of this study include use of point-of-care HbA1c for definition of diabetes and definition of hypertension based on single-day measurements.

CONCLUSIONS

Households affected by tuberculosis also face multiple other health challenges. Integrated approaches to tuberculosis screening may represent an opportunity for identification and treatment, including prioritisation of individuals at highest risk for tuberculosis to receive preventive therapy.

Assessment of the Quality of Cause-of-Death Data in Serbia for 2005-2019 Vital Statistics Performance Index Estimation

Background

We aimed to evaluate the quality of the cause of death (COD) concerning mortality patterns and completeness of death registration to identify areas for improvement in Serbia.

Methods

COD data collected from the mortality register in Serbia from 2005 to 2019 (1540615 deaths) were analyzed with the software Analysis of National Causes of Death for Action. The Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)) is estimated for the overall COD data quality.

Results

The completeness of death certification was higher than 98%. Usable underlying COD was registered in 57%, 24.1% with an unusable and 18.6% with insufficiently specified COD. The VSPI(Q) was 67.2%, denoting medium quality. The typical error was using intermediate COD (24.7% of all deaths), while 13.2% and 8.5% of all garbage codes (GC) belonged to the Very High and High Severity classes. The leading underlying COD is unspecified cardiomyopathy. The analysis revealed that 39.1% of GC has been redistributed to non-communicable diseases, 2.5% to external causes and 1.1% to communicable diseases.

Conclusion

In the 15 years' worth of data analyzed, the true underlying COD, in many cases, was ill-defined, indicating that COD data at the national level could be distorted. The additional and continuous professional education of medical students as well as physicians is needed. It should focus on the most common GC among the leading COD and acquiring skills in certifying external causes of death.

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Sex-based tuberculosis mortality in Newfoundland, 1900-1949: Implications for populations in transition

OBJECTIVE

During the second epidemiological transition, tuberculosis (TB) is one disease that declined substantially enough to reduce all-cause mortality. Sex-based differences in TB mortality may reveal an important dimension of population health transitions between the urbanizing and rural regions of Newfoundland.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For the island of Newfoundland, yearly age-standardized sex-based TB mortality rates were calculated using individual death records from 1900 to 1949 (n = 30 393). Multiple linear regression models predict the relative rates (RR) of sex-based mortality and the absolute difference between males and females while controlling for time and region (the urbanizing Avalon Peninsula or rural Newfoundland). Multiple linear regression models also predict the median age at death from TB while controlling for time, region, and sex to assess if TB was shifting to an older adult disease compared to those typically afflicted in ages 20-44.

RESULTS

Female TB mortality was relatively and absolutely higher than males; additionally, RR and absolute differences between male and female mortality were significantly lower in rural Newfoundland than the Avalon Peninsula. Median age at death for males was significantly higher than females, and differences in median age at death increased over time.

DISCUSSION

The historically high prevalence of TB throughout Newfoundland, including domestic, social, and public health responsibilities of women, likely contributed to increased exposure and transmission, leading to higher observed mortality. Sex-based TB outcomes should be considered in the discussion of the progression of the epidemiological transition as dynamic inequalities that do not necessarily fit contemporary generalizations of sex-based TB epidemiology.

Life expectancy inequalities between regions of China 2004-2020: contribution of age- and cause-specific mortality

Background

China's rapid economic and social development since the early 2000s has caused significant shifts in its epidemiological transition, potentially leading to health disparities across regions.

Objectives

This study employs Life Expectancy (LE) to assess health disparities and trends among China's eastern, central, and western regions. It also examines the pace of LE gains relative to empirical trends and investigates age and causes of death mortality improvement contributing to regional LE gaps.

Data and methods

Using a log-quadratic model, the study estimates LE in China and its regions from 2004 to 2020, using census and death cause surveillance data. It also utilizes the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and the LE gains by LE level approach to analyze China and its regions' LE gains in comparison to empirical trend of developed countries. The study investigates changes in LE gaps due to age and causes of death mortality improvements during two periods, 2004-2012 and 2012-2020, through the LE factor decomposition method.

Results

From 2000 to 2020, China's LE exhibited faster pace of gains compared to developed countries. While men's LE growth gradually aligns with empirical trends, women experience slightly higher growth rates. Regional LE disparities significantly reduced from 2004 to 2012, with a marginal reduction from 2012 to 2020. In the latter period, the changing LE gap aligns with expected trends in developed countries, with all Chinese regions surpassing empirical estimates. Cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms emerged as the primary contributors to expanding regional LE gaps, with neurological disorders and diabetes playing an increasingly negative role.

Conclusion

LE disparities in China have consistently decreased, although at a slower pace in recent years, mirroring empirical trends. To further reduce regional LE disparities, targeted efforts should focus on improving mortality rates related to cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, neurological disorders and diabetes, especially in the western region. Effective health interventions should prioritize equalizing basic public health services nationwide.

Long-term health effects of a school construction program

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) disproportionately affect people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet context-specific evidence on policies that impact NCD risk factors is lacking. We estimate the impact of a massive Indonesian primary school expansion program in the 1970s on NCD risk factors in later life using data from two surveys with very large sample sizes. We find that in non-Java regions of Indonesia, the program led to significant increases in the likelihood of overweight and high waist circumference among women, but not among men. The increase for women can be partly explained by increased consumption of high-calorie packaged and take-away meals. We find no meaningful impacts on high blood pressure for either sex. Despite the increase in body weight, the program had a negligible impact on diabetes and cardiovascular disease diagnosis. It led to an improvement in women's self-reported health outcomes in their early-40s, but these benefits largely disappeared once they reached their mid-40s.

Maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality: a transition model based on analyses of 151 countries

BACKGROUND

Maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality account for almost 5 million deaths a year and are often analysed separately, despite having overlapping causes and interventions. We propose a comprehensive five-phase mortality transition model to improve analyses of progress and inform strategic planning.

METHODS

In this empirical data-driven study to develop a model transition, we used UN estimates for 151 countries to assess changes in maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths. On the basis of ratios of maternal to stillbirth and neonatal mortality, we identified five phases of transition, in which phase 1 has the highest mortality and phase 5 has the lowest. We used global databases to examine phase-specific characteristics during 2000-20 for causes of death, fertility rates, abortion policies, health workforce and financing, and socioeconomic indicators. We analysed 326 national surveys to assess service coverage and inequalities by transition phase.

FINDINGS

Among 116 countries in phases 1 to 4 in 2000, 73 (63%) progressed at least one phase by 2020, six advanced two phases, and three regressed. The ratio of stillbirth and neonatal deaths to maternal deaths increased from less than 10 in phase 1 to well over 50 in phase 4 and phase 5. Progression was associated with a declining proportion of deaths caused by infectious diseases and peripartum complications, declining total and adolescent fertility rates, changes in health-workforce densities and skills mix (ie, ratio of nurses or midwives to physicians) from phase 3 onwards, increasing per-capita health spending, and reducing shares of out-of-pocket health expenditures. From phase 1 to 5, the median coverage of first antenatal care visits increased from 66% to 98%, four or more antenatal care visits from 44% to 94%, institutional births from 36% to 99%, and caesarean section rates from 2% to 25%. The transition out of high-mortality phases involved a major increase in institutional births, primarily in lower-level health facilities, whereas subsequent progress was characterised by rapid increases in hospital births. Wealth-related inequalities reduced strongly for institutional birth coverage from phase 3 onwards.

INTERPRETATION

The five-phase maternal mortality, stillbirth, and neonatal mortality transition model can be used to benchmark the current indicators in comparison to typical patterns in the transition at national or sub-national level, identify outliers to better assess drivers of progress, and inform strategic planning and investments towards Sustainable Development Goal targets. It can also facilitate programming for integrated strategies to end preventable maternal mortality and neonatal mortality and stillbirths.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health Monitoring Using Smart Home Technologies: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

The Internet of Things (IoT) has become integrated into everyday life, with devices becoming permanent fixtures in many homes. As countries face increasing pressure on their health care systems, smart home technologies have the potential to support population health through continuous behavioral monitoring.

OBJECTIVE

This scoping review aims to provide insight into this evolving field of research by surveying the current technologies and applications for in-home health monitoring.

METHODS

Peer-reviewed papers from 2008 to 2021 related to smart home technologies for health care were extracted from 4 databases (PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and CINAHL); 49 papers met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed.

RESULTS

Most of the studies were from Europe and North America. The largest proportion of the studies were proof of concept or pilot studies. Approximately 78% (38/49) of the studies used real human participants, most of whom were older females. Demographic data were often missing. Nearly 60% (29/49) of the studies reported on the health status of the participants. Results were primarily reported in engineering and technology journals. Almost 62% (30/49) of the studies used passive infrared sensors to report on motion detection where data were primarily binary. There were numerous data analysis, management, and machine learning techniques employed. The primary challenges reported by authors were differentiating between multiple participants in a single space, technology interoperability, and data security and privacy.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review synthesizes the current state of research on smart home technologies for health care. We were able to identify multiple trends and knowledge gaps-in particular, the lack of collaboration across disciplines. Technological development dominates over the human-centric part of the equation. During the preparation of this scoping review, we noted that the health care research papers lacked a concrete definition of a smart home, and based on the available evidence and the identified gaps, we propose a new definition for a smart home for health care. Smart home technology is growing rapidly, and interdisciplinary approaches will be needed to ensure integration into the health sector.

The Epidemiologic Transition in French Guiana: Secular Trends and Setbacks, and Comparisons with Continental France and South American Countries

There are great variations between population subgroups, notably in poorer countries, leading to substantial inconsistencies with those predicted by the classical epidemiologic transition theory. In this context, using public data, we aimed to determine how the singular case of French Guiana fit and transitioned in the epidemiologic transition framework. The data show a gradual decline in infant mortality to values above 8 per 1000 live births. Premature mortality rates were greater but declined more rapidly in French Guiana than in mainland France until 2017 when they reascended in a context of political turmoil followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and strong reluctance to get vaccinated. Although infections were a more frequent cause of death in French Guiana, there is a marked decline and circulatory and metabolic causes are major causes of premature death. Fertility rates remain high (>3 live births per woman), and the age structure of the population is still pyramid-shaped. The singularities of French Guiana (rich country, universal health system, widespread poverty) explain why its transition does not fit neatly within the usual stages of transition. Beyond gradual improvements in secular trends, the data also suggest that political turmoil and fake news may have detrimentally affected mortality in French Guiana and reversed improving trends.

Targeting Cancer Stem Cells as the Key Driver of Carcinogenesis and Therapeutic Resistance

The emerging concept of cancer stem cells (CSCs) as the key driver behind carcinogenesis, progression, and diversity has displaced the prior model of a tumor composed of cells with similar subsequently acquired mutations and an equivalent capacity for renewal, invasion, and metastasis. This significant change has shifted the research focus toward targeting CSCs to eradicate cancer. CSCs may be characterized using cell surface markers. They are defined by their capacity to self-renew and differentiate, resist conventional therapies, and generate new tumors following repeated transplantation in xenografted mice. CSCs' functional capabilities are governed by various intracellular and extracellular variables such as pluripotency-related transcription factors, internal signaling pathways, and external stimuli. Numerous natural compounds and synthetic chemicals have been investigated for their ability to disrupt these regulatory components and inhibit stemness and terminal differentiation in CSCs, hence achieving clinical implications. However, no cancer treatment focuses on the biological consequences of these drugs on CSCs, and their functions have been established. This article provides a biomedical discussion of cancer at the time along with an overview of CSCs and their origin, features, characterization, isolation techniques, signaling pathways, and novel targeted therapeutic approaches. Additionally, we highlighted the factors endorsed as controlling or helping to promote stemness in CSCs. Our objective was to encourage future studies on these prospective treatments to develop a framework for their application as single or combined therapeutics to eradicate various forms of cancer.

Making visible the cost of informal caregivers' time in Latin America: a case study for major cardiovascular, cancer and respiratory diseases in eight countries

BACKGROUND

Informal care is a key element of health care and well-being for society, yet it is scarcely visible and rarely studied in health economic evaluations. This study aims to estimate the time use and cost associated with informal care for cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and ten different cancers in eight Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru).

METHODS

We carried out an exhaustive literature review on informal caregivers' time use, focusing on the selected diseases. We developed a survey for professional caregivers and conducted expert interviews to validate this data in the local context. We used an indirect estimate through the interpolation of the available data, for those cases in which we do not found reliable information. We used the proxy good method to estimate the monetary value of the use of time of informal care. National household surveys databases were processed to obtain the average wage per hour of a proxy of informal caregiver. Estimates were expressed in 2020 US dollars.

RESULTS

The study estimated approximately 1,900 million hours of informal care annually and $ 4,300 million per year in average informal care time cost for these fifteen diseases and eight countries analyzed. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for an informal care burden that ranged from 374 to 555 h per year, while cancers varied from 512 to 1,825 h per year. The informal care time cost share on GDP varied from 0.26% (Mexico) to 1.38% (Brazil), with an average of 0.82% in the studied American countries. Informal care time cost represents between 16 and 44% of the total economic cost (direct medical and informal care cost) associated with health conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows that there is a significant informal care economic burden -frequently overlooked- in different chronic and acute diseases in Latin American countries; and highlights the relevance of including the economic value of informal care in economic evaluations of healthcare.

Biocultural perspectives of infectious diseases and demographic evolution: Tuberculosis and its comorbidities through history

Anthropologists recognize the importance of conceptualizing health in the context of the mutually evolving nature of biology and culture through the biocultural approach, but biocultural anthropological perspectives of infectious diseases and their impacts on humans (and vice versa) through time are relatively underrepresented. Tuberculosis (TB) has been a constant companion of humans for thousands of years and has heavily influenced population health in almost every phase of cultural and demographic evolution. TB in human populations has been dramatically influenced by behavior, demographic and epidemiological shifts, and other comorbidities through history. This paper critically discusses TB and some of its major comorbidities through history within a biocultural framework to show how transitions in human demography and culture affected the disease-scape of TB. In doing so, I address the potential synthesis of biocultural and epidemiological transition theory to better comprehend the mutual evolution of infectious diseases and humans.

The role of age inequalities in cause of death in the slow pace of epidemiological transition in India

In developed countries, low disparity in lifespan contributed by the reduction in the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is the key to advances in epidemiological transition. Contrarily, India passing through a phase of the dual burden of CDs and NCDs shows a heavy burden of NCDs responsible for the high disparity in lifespan. The Gini coefficient was decomposed for examining the contribution of 22 causes of death and their repercussions for inequality in age at death for 30 years between 1990-1994 and 2015-2019, using Global Burden of Disease data. The outcomes of the study reveal that India's epidemiological transition has been just modest on account of high inequality in mortality by NCDs emplaced in the middle through old age despite a consistent mortality decline at infant through old age for communicable diseases (CDs). The structural changes in causes of death structure is shaped by CDs rather than NCDs, but overall bolstered by the adult mortality decline, especially in women. However, the process is restrained by the small contribution of the middle age group and a benign contribution of old mortality decline owing to the low threshold age. India needs to target health interventions in seeking significant mortality decline in the middle age group of 50-69 years that is warranted for epidemiological transition apace as evident in the developed nations.

Nutrition and Health in Human Evolution-Past to Present

Anyone who wants to understand the biological nature of humans and their special characteristics must look far back into evolutionary history. Today's way of life is drastically different from that of our ancestors. For almost 99% of human history, gathering and hunting have been the basis of nutrition. It was not until about 12,000 years ago that humans began domesticating plants and animals. Bioarchaeologically and biochemically, this can be traced back to our earliest roots. Modern living conditions and the quality of human life are better today than ever before. However, neither physically nor psychosocially have we made this adjustment and we are paying a high health price for it. The studies presented allow us to reconstruct food supply, lifestyles, and dietary habits: from the earliest primates, through hunter-gatherers of the Paleolithic, farming communities since the beginning of the Anthropocene, to the Industrial Age and the present. The comprehensive data pool allows extraction of all findings of medical relevance. Our recent lifestyle and diet are essentially determined by our culture rather than by our millions of years of ancestry. Culture is permanently in a dominant position compared to natural evolution. Thereby culture does not form a contrast to nature but represents its result. There is no doubt that we are biologically adapted to culture, but it is questionable how much culture humans can cope with.

Epidemiology and Economic Burden of Continuing Challenge of Infectious Diseases in India: Analysis of Socio-Demographic Differentials

Unlike other low- and middle-income countries, infectious diseases are still predominant, and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are emerging without replacing the burden of infectious diseases in India, where it is imposing a double burden of diseases on households in the country. This study aimed to analyse the socio-economic and demographic differentials in the magnitude of economic burden and coping strategies associated with health expenditure on infectious diseases in India. National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) data on “Key Indicators of Social Consumption in India: Health, (2017–18)” have been employed in this study. The findings of the study revealed that more than 33% of the individuals are still suffering from infectious diseases out of the total ailing population in India. Based on the various socio-economic and demographic covariates, infectious diseases are highly prevalent among individuals with marginalized characteristics, such as individuals residing in rural areas, females, 0–14 age groups, Muslims, illiterates, scheduled tribes (STs), and scheduled castes (SCs), large family households, and economically poor people in the country. The per capita out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure on infectious diseases is INR 7.28 and INR 29.38 in inpatient and outpatient care, respectively. Whereas, monthly per patient OOP expenditure on infectious diseases by infection-affected populations is INR 881.56 and INR 1,156.34 in inpatient and outpatient care in India. The study found that people residing in rural areas, SCs followed by other backward classes (OBCs), illiterates, poor, and very poor are more dependent on borrowings, sale of assets, and other distressed sources of financing. However, under National Health Policy 2017, many initiatives, such as “Ayushman Bharat,” PM-JAY, and National Digital Health Mission (NDHM) in 2021, have been launched by the government of India in the recent years. These initiatives are holistically launched for ensuring better health facilities, but it is early to make any prediction regarding its outcomes; hopefully, the time will define it over the passing of a few more years. Finally, the study proposed the need for proper implementations of policy initiatives, awareness against unhygienic conditions and contamination of illnesses, immunisations/vaccination campaigns, subsidized medical facilities, and the country's expansion of quality primary health-care facilities.

Biological mortality bias in diaphyseal growth of contemporary children: Implications for paleoauxology

Objectives

Biological mortality bias is the idea that individuals who comprise skeletal samples (non‐survivors) are a specific subset of the overall population, who may have been exposed to greater stress during life. Because of this, it is possible that studying growth in a skeletal population misrepresents the growth and health of survivors in that population. Using a modern sample, this study investigates whether biological mortality bias in growth may be present in archaeological skeletal samples.

Materials and methods

Postmortem computed tomography scans of 206 children aged under 13 years were collected from two institutions in the United States and Australia. The sample was separated into children who died from natural causes as proxies for non‐survivors and from accidental causes as proxies for survivors. Differences in long bone length for age were assessed through analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and z‐score analysis, and these results were compared with studies linking anthropometrics and mortality risk in nonindustrialized societies.

Results

Differences in growth favoring survivors were greater for girls than for boys and seemed to increase over age. The effect in nonindustrialized societies was 1.5 to 5 times the magnitude of that in our contemporary sample.

Conclusions

A greater growth delay in girls than in boys has been documented in historical identified collections, and skeletal samples consistently become more stunted relative to modern standards over the course of growth. Our findings on biological mortality bias could explain part of these growth delays and impact interpretations of past ontogenetic environments.

The Influence of Socioeconomic Status on Esophageal Cancer in Taiwan: A Population-Based Study

Background: Esophageal cancer has extreme worldwide demographic and histologic variations in occurrence; thus, understanding the pathogenesis of esophageal cancer must be region- or country-based. We examined the incidence and tumor stage at diagnosis of esophageal cancer in relation to patients’ socioeconomic status (SES) in Taiwan. Method: This retrospective cohort study used data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database and Taiwan Cancer Registry collected between January 2008 and December 2014. The records of 40- to 79-year-old patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer were retrieved. The distribution of the crude incidence rates of esophageal cancer by occupation and income variables was studied retrospectively. Cox proportional hazard model was used to adjust for potential confounders and compare the esophageal cancer incidence among four independent variables: age, gender, occupation, and income. Logistic regression analysis was applied to find the power of the independent variables on the odds ratio of late-stage presentation. Results: The analysis included 7763 subjects. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) was the predominant histological type (96.6%) and 94.4% of patients were male. The peak affected age for ESCC was 50 to 59 years, whereas the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma increased progressively with age. The risk of ESCC was significantly unfavorable for the most disadvantaged group, either in occupation or income, while in EAC, risk was unrelated to either factor. The stage of cancer at diagnosis was lower in the highest income groups than in the other two groups. Conclusion: Significant SES disparities in esophageal cancer incidence, based on occupation and income, are present in Taiwan. Low SES populations have a higher percentage of late-stage diagnosis. Resolution of the increasing socioeconomic disparities and narrowing the gaps in health inequities in Taiwan are needed.

Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

An age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar's 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources.

RESULTS

Between 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20-79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar-for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial.

CONCLUSIONS

T2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality.

Explaining population trends in cardiovascular risk: protocol for a comparative analysis of health transitions in South Africa and England using nationally representative survey data

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death globally and share determinants with other major non-communicable diseases. Risk factors for CVD are routinely measured in population surveys and thus provide an opportunity to study health transitions. Understanding the drivers of health transitions in countries that have not followed expected paths compared with those that exemplified models of 'epidemiologic transition', such as England, can generate knowledge on where resources may best be directed to reduce the burden of disease. This study aims to examine the notions of epidemiological transition by identifying and quantifying the drivers of change in CVD risk in a middle-income African setting compared with a high-income European setting.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a secondary joint analysis of data collected within the scope of multiple population surveys conducted in South Africa and England between 1998 and 2017 on nationally representative samples of the adult population. The study will use a validated, non-laboratory risk score to estimate and compare the distribution of and trends in total CVD risk in the population. Statistical modelling techniques (fixed-effects and random-effects multilevel regression models and structural equation models) will be used to examine how various factors explain the variation in CVD risk over time in the two countries.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has obtained approval from the University of Greenwich (20.5.6.8) and Stellenbosch University (X21/09/027) Research Ethics Committees. It uses anonymised microdata originating from population surveys which received ethical approval from the relevant bodies, with no additional primary data collection. Results of the study will be disseminated through (1) peer-reviewed articles in open access journals; (2) policy briefs; (3) conferences and meetings; and (4) public engagement activities designed to reach health professionals, governmental bodies, civil society and the lay public. A harmonised data set will be made publicly available through online repositories.

Urban-rural lifespan disparities and cause-deleted analysis: evidence from China

OBJECTIVES

To examine the length and dispersion level of lifespan for the subnational populations in China, identify the urban-rural gap and sex differences, and analyse the contribution made by causes of death.

SETTING

Cause-specific mortality data extracted from the Chinese Disease Surveillance Points system, grouped by sex and urban/rural residence.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Life expectancy and lifespan disparity are used to measure the length and dispersion level of lifespan, respectively. Cause-specific contributions are obtained by contrasting cause-deleted life expectancy and lifespan disparities with observed values.

PARTICIPANTS

Aggregated national data gathered from over 605 surveillance points across China, covering over 264 million people by 2016 (about 19.14% of the total Chinese population).

RESULTS

In the decade under observation, all subpopulations in China, by area and sex, experienced increases in life expectancy and decreases in lifespan disparity, while causes of deaths contributed differently. For example, based on the 2016 data, if cardiovascular diseases were deleted, there would be an increase in life expectancy that ranges from 5.59 years for urban males to 6.69 years for rural females. However, also lifespan disparity would increase, ranging from 0.81 years for urban females to 1.37 years for rural males.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, the urban-rural gaps in both life expectancy and lifespan disparity are shrinking as the rural residents are catching up fast, while the gender gaps remain large, and even widening. Causes of death with different age distribution patterns contribute differently to the level and direction of the urban-rural and sex differentials in life expectancy and lifespan disparity. Sex differentials were observed in cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, lung and liver cancers, and external causes, while urban-rural differences were found in lung and breast cancers, and external causes.

Loss of life expectancy due to respiratory infectious diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study in 195 countries and territories 1990-2017

Understanding of the patterns of and changes in mortality from respiratory infectious diseases (RID) and its contribution to loss of life expectancy (LE) is inadequate in the existing literature. With rapid sociodemographic changes globally, and the current COVID-19 pandemic, it is timely to revisit the disease burden of RID. Using the approaches of life table and cause-eliminated life table based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), the study analyses loss of LE due to RID in 195 countries/territories and its changes during the period 1990-2017. Results indicate that loss of LE due to RID stood at 1.29 years globally in 2017 globally and varied widely by age, gender, and geographic location, with men, elderly people, and populations in middle/low income countries/territories suffering a disproportionately high loss of LE due to RID. Additionally, loss of LE due to RID decreased remarkably by 0.97 years globally during the period 1990-2017 but increased slightly among populations older than 70 years and in many high income countries/territories. Results suggest that RID still pose a severe threat for population and public health, and that amid dramatic sociodemographic changes globally, the disease burden of RID may resurge. The study presents the first examination of the life-shortening effect of RID at the global and country/territory levels, providing new understanding of the changing disease burden of RID and shedding light on the potential consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Mortality transition over a quarter century in rural South Africa: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt 1993-2018

Background

Mortality burden in South Africa since the mid-1990s has been characterized by a quadruple disease burden: HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB); other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and TB), maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies; non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and injuries. Causes from these broad groupings have persistently constituted the top 10 causes of death. However, proportions and rankings have varied over time, alongside overall mortality levels.

Objective

To provide evidence on the contributions of age and cause-of-death to changes in mortality levels in a rural South African population over a quarter century (1993–2018).

Methods

Using mortality and cause-of-death data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), we derive estimates of the distribution of deaths by cause, and hazards of death by age, sex, and time period, 1993–2018. We derive estimates of life expectancies at birth and years of life expectancy gained at age 15 if most common causes of death were deleted. We compare mortality indicators and cause-of-death trends from the Agincourt HDSS with South African national indicators generated from publicly available datasets.

Results

Mortality and cause-of-death transition reveals that overall mortality levels have returned to pre-HIV epidemic levels. In recent years, the concentration of mortality has shifted towards older ages, and the mortality burden from cardiovascular diseases and other chronic NCDs are more prominent as people living with HIV/AIDS access ART and live longer. Changes in life expectancy at birth, distribution of deaths by age, and major cause-of-death categories in the Agincourt population follow a similar pattern to the South African population.

Conclusion

The Agincourt HDSS provides critical information about general mortality, cause-of-death, and age patterns in rural South Africa. Realigning and strengthening the South African public health and healthcare systems is needed to concurrently cater for the prevention, control, and treatment of multiple disease conditions.

Intersectoral Action for Addressing NCDs through the Food Environment: An Analysis of NCD Framing in Global Policies and Its Relevance for the African Context

Noncommunicable diseases contribute the greatest to global mortality. Unhealthy diet-a prominent risk factor-is intricately linked to urban built and food environments and requires intersectoral efforts to address. Framings of the noncommunicable disease problem and proposed solutions within global and African regional diet-related policy documents can reveal how amenable the policy landscape is for supporting intersectoral action for health in low-income to middle-income countries. This study applied a document analysis approach to undertake policy analysis on global and African regional policies related to noncommunicable disease and diet. A total of 62 global and 29 African regional policy documents were analysed. Three problem frames relating to noncommunicable disease and diet were identified at the global and regional level, namely evidence-based, development, and socioeconomic frames. Health promotion, intersectoral and multisectoral action, and evidence-based monitoring and assessment underpinned proposed interventions to improve education and awareness, support structural changes, and improve disease surveillance and monitoring. African policies insufficiently considered associations between food security and noncommunicable disease. In order to effectively address the noncommunicable disease burden, a paradigm shift from 'health for development' to 'development for health' is required across non-health sectors. Noncommunicable disease considerations should be included within African food security agendas, using malnutrition as a possible intermediary concept to motivate intersectoral action to improve access to nutritious food in African low-income to middle-income countries.

Preventive interventions to reduce the burden of rheumatic heart disease in populations at risk: a systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND

Rheumatic heart disease is preventable, yet associated with significant health burden, mostly in low-resourced settings. It is prevalent among children and young adults living in impoverished areas. Primordial, primary, and secondary preventive measures have been recommended through health interventions and comprehensive programmes, although most implemented interventions are the high-resourced settings. The proposed review aims to synthesise the evidence of prevention effectiveness of implemented health interventions for the prevention of rheumatic heart disease.

METHODS AND DESIGN

This article describes a protocol for a systematic review. A predefined search strategy will be used to search for relevant literature published from the year 2000 to present. Electronic databases Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials will be searched for the studies, as well as reference lists of relevant studies included. Risk of bias and quality appraisal will be done for the included studies using ROBINS-I tool and Cochrane tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised control trials. Findings will be analysed in subgroups based on the level of intervention and prevention strategy implemented. We will present the findings in descriptive formats with tables and flow diagrams.

DISCUSSION

This review will provide evidence on the prevention effectiveness of interventions or strategies implemented for the prevention of RHD. The findings of this will be significant for policy, practice, and research in countries planning to implement interventions.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ID: CRD42020170503.

Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An age-structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population-based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors.

RESULTS

The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus' share of Oman's national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for <1% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases throughout 2020-2050. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses affirmed these predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, consuming nearly one-third of the national health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus burden is heavily influenced by obesity. Interventions targeting this single risk factor should be a national priority to reduce and control the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman.

Mortality Trends by Causes of Death and Healthcare during a Period of Global Uncertainty (1990-2017)

In this study we aim to highlight the spatial differences, intensity and frequency of causes of death associated with a range of diseases and the implications of the socio-economic impact on healthcare worldwide between 1990 and 2017: (1) Background: At the same time, an attempt was made to find regional spatial patterns that may be typical for a given geographical area, based on the assumption that global health care is in a permanent state of uncertainty as developed countries have a different morbidity profile than emerging or developing countries. (2) Methods: Using information provided by Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network, Our World in Data and the World Bank, a multidimensional analysis was carried out, comprising four types of statistical models: grouping analysis, principal component analysis (PCA) Bravais–Pearson linear correlation and multivariate regression. (3) Results: The results confirm the hypothesis of significant correlations between the frequency of causes of death, quality of health care and quality of public health infrastructure, validated by incidence with socio-economic indicators. The study contributes to the literature by analysing trends in the spatial distribution of causes of death worldwide, detecting regional differentiations and testing how socio-economic factors may limit the incidence of morbidity.

Understanding non-communicable diseases: combining health surveillance with local knowledge to improve rural primary health care in South Africa

Background: NCDs are non-infectious, long-term conditions that account for 40 million deaths per annum. 87% of premature NCD mortality occurs in low- and middle-income countries.

Objective: The aims were:develop methods to provide integrated biosocial accounts of NCD mortality; and explore the practical utility of extended mortality data for the primary health care system.

Methods: We drew on data from research programmes in the study area. Data were analysed in three steps: [a]analysis of levels, causes and circumstances of NCD mortality [n = 4,166] from routine census updates including Verbal Autopsy and of qualitative data on lived experiences of NCDs in rural villages from participatory research; [b] identifying areas of convergence and divergence between the analyses; and [c]exploration of the practical relevance of the data drawing on engagements with health systems stakeholders.

Results: NCDs constituted a significant proportion of mortality in this setting [36%]. VA data revealed multiple barriers to access in end-of-life care. Many deaths were attributed to problems with resources and health systems [21%;19% respectively]. The qualitative research provided rich complementary detail on the processes through which risk originates, accumulates and is expressed in access to end-of-life care, related to chronic poverty and perceptions of poor quality care in clinics. The exploration of practical relevance revealed chronic under-funding for NCD services, and an acute need for robust, timely data on the NCD burden.

Conclusions: VA data allowed a significant burden of NCD mortality to be quantified and revealed barriers to access at and around the time of death. Qualitative research contextualised these barriers, providing explanations of how and why they exist and persist. Health systems analysis revealed shortages of resources allocated to NCDs and a need for robust research to provide locally relevant evidence to organise and deliver care. Pragmatic interdisciplinary and mixed method analysis provides relevant renditions of complex problems to inform more effective responses.

The socioeconomic and environmental drivers of the COVID-19 pandemic: A review

In recent decades, there has been an intensification of the socioeconomic and environmental drivers of pandemics, including ecosystem conversion, meat consumption, urbanization, and connectivity among cities and countries. This paper reviews how these four systemic drivers help explain the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and other recent emerging infectious diseases, and the policies that can be adopted to mitigate their risks. Land-use change and meat consumption increase the likelihood of pathogen spillover from animals to people. The risk that such zoonotic outbreaks will then spread to become pandemics is magnified by growing urban populations and the networks of trade and travel within and among countries. Zoonotic spillover can be mitigated through habitat protection and restrictions on the wildlife trade. Containing infectious disease spread requires a high degree of coordination among institutions across geographic jurisdictions and economic sectors, all backed by international investment and cooperation.

Assessing the Impact of Individual Characteristics and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Provinces of Milan and Lodi

Social inequalities in health are known to be influenced by the socioeconomic status of the territory in which people live. In the context of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, this study is aimed at assessing the role of 5 area-level indicators in shaping the risk of contagion in the provinces of Milan and Lodi (Lombardy, Italy), namely: educational disadvantage, unemployment, housing crowding, mobility, and population density. The study area includes the municipalities at the origin of the first Italian epidemic outbreak. Data on COVID-19 patients from the Integrated Datawarehouse for COVID Analysis in Milan were used and matched with aggregate-level data from the National Institute of Statistics Italy (Istat). Multilevel logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between the census block-level predictors and COVID-19 infection, independently of age, sex, country of birth, and preexisting health conditions. All the variables were significantly associated with the outcome, with different effects before and after the lockdown and according to the province of residence. This suggests a pattern of socioeconomic inequalities in the outbreak, which should be taken into account in the eventuality of future epidemics to contain their spread and its related disparities.

Lack of biological mortality bias in the timing of dental formation in contemporary children: Implications for the study of past populations

OBJECTIVES

Biological mortality bias is the idea that individuals who perish (non-survivors) are biologically distinct from those who survive (survivors). If biological mortality bias is large enough, bioarchaeological studies of nonsurvivors (skeletal samples) cannot accurately represent the experiences of the survivors of that population. This effect is particularly problematic for the study of juvenile individuals, as growth is particularly sensitive to environmental insults. In this study, we test whether biological mortality bias exists in one dimension of growth, namely dental development.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Postmortem computed tomography scans of 206 children aged 12 years and younger at death were collected from two institutions in the United States and Australia. The sample was separated into children dying from natural causes as proxies for non-survivors and from accidental causes as proxies for survivors. Differences in the timing of dental development were assessed using sequential logistic regressions between dental formation stages and residual analysis of dental minus chronological age.

RESULTS

No consistent delay in age of attainment of dental stages was documented between survivors and non-survivors. Delays between survivors and non-survivors in dental relative to chronological age were greatest for infants, and were greater for females than for males.

DISCUSSION

Lack of biological mortality bias in dental development reinforces confidence in juvenile age estimates and therefore in skeletal growth profiles and growth studies. As dental development is known to be less environmentally sensitive than skeletal growth and development, further studies should examine biological mortality bias in long bone length.

Systematic analysis of the scientific literature on population surveillance

Introduction

Population surveillance provides data on the health status of the population through continuous scrutiny of different indicators. Identifying risk factors is essential for the quickly detecting and controlling of epidemic outbreaks and reducing the incidence of cross-infections and non-communicable diseases. The objective of the present study is to analyze research on population surveillance, identifying the main topics of interest for investigators in the area.

Methodology

We included documents indexed in the Web of Science Core Collection in the period from 2000 to 2019 and assigned with the generic Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) “population surveillance” or its related terms (“public health surveillance,” “sentinel surveillance” or “biosurveillance”). A co-occurrence analysis was undertaken to identify the document clusters comprising the main research topics. Scientific production, collaboration, and citation patterns in each of the clusters were characterized bibliometrically. We also analyzed research on coronaviruses, relating the results obtained to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

We included 39,184 documents, which reflected a steady growth in scientific output driven by papers on “Public, Environmental & Occupational Health” (21.62% of the documents) and “Infectious Diseases” (10.49%). Research activity was concentrated in North America (36.41%) and Europe (32.09%). The USA led research in the area (40.14% of documents). Ten topic clusters were identified, including “Disease Outbreaks,” which is closely related to two other clusters (“Genetics” and “Influenza”). Other clusters of note were “Cross Infections” as well as one that brought together general public health concepts and topics related to non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular and coronary diseases, mental diseases, diabetes, wound and injuries, stroke, and asthma). The rest of the clusters addressed “Neoplasms,” “HIV,” “Pregnancy,” “Substance Abuse/Obesity,” and “Tuberculosis.” Although research on coronavirus has focused on population surveillance only occasionally, some papers have analyzed and collated guidelines whose relevance to the dissemination and management of the COVID-19 pandemic has become obvious. Topics include tracing the spread of the virus, limiting mass gatherings that would facilitate its propagation, and the imposition of quarantines. There were important differences in the scientific production and citation of different clusters: the documents on mental illnesses, stroke, substance abuse/obesity, and cross-infections had much higher citations than the clusters on disease outbreaks, tuberculosis, and especially coronavirus, where these values are substantially lower.

Conclusions

The role of population surveillance should be strengthened, promoting research and the development of public health surveillance systems in countries whose contribution to the area is limited.

Epidemiological transition and double burden of diseases in low-income countries: the case of Mozambique

Epidemiological transition theory aims to describe changes in epidemiological scenarios at the global and national level. The assumption is the shift from infectious diseases (IDs) to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Some authors argue that this theory failed to describe epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa. We considered the case of Mozambique, where is occurring a rapid demographic change, with dramatic growth of the population. According to the data, we concluded that NCDs are increasing in Mozambique, but due to the vast predominance of IDs, a double burden of disease model is more accurate to describe the actual epidemiological context of the country. Consequently, health funding focusing on IDs should take into account the concomitant epidemiological scenario and try to encompass other health challenges.

Burden of disease in francophone Africa, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background

Peer-reviewed literature on health is almost exclusively published in English, limiting the uptake of research for decision making in francophone African countries. We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to assess the burden of disease in francophone Africa and inform health professionals and their partners in the region.

Methods

We assessed the burden of disease in the 21 francophone African countries and compared the results with those for their non-francophone counterparts in three economic communities: the Economic Community of West African States, the Economic Community of Central African States, and the Southern African Development Community. GBD 2017 employed a variety of statistical models to determine the number of deaths from each cause, through the Cause of Death Ensemble model algorithm, using CoDCorrect to ensure that the number of deaths per cause did not exceed the total number of estimated deaths. After producing estimates for the number of deaths from each of the 282 fatal outcomes included in the GBD 2017 list of causes, the years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death were calculated. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. All calculations are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). A sample of 1000 draws was taken from the posterior distribution of each estimation step; aggregation of uncertainty across age, sex, and location was done on each draw, assuming independence of uncertainty. The lower and upper UIs represent the ordinal 25th and 975th draws of each quantity and attempt to describe modelling as well as sampling error.

Findings

In 2017, 779 deaths (95% UI 750–809) per 100 000 population occurred in francophone Africa, a decrease of 45·3% since 1990. Malaria, lower respiratory infections, neonatal disorders, diarrhoeal diseases, and tuberculosis were the top five Level 3 causes of death. These five causes were found among the six leading causes of death in most francophone countries. In 2017, francophone Africa experienced 53 570 DALYs (50 164–57 361) per 100 000 population, distributed between 43 708 YLLs (41 673–45 742) and 9862 YLDs (7331–12 749) per 100 000 population. In 2017, YLLs constituted the majority of DALYs in the 21 countries of francophone Africa. Age-specific and cause-specific mortality and population ageing were responsible for most of the reductions in disease burden, whereas population growth was responsible for most of the increases.

Interpretation

Francophone Africa still carries a high burden of communicable and neonatal diseases, probably due to the weakness of health-care systems and services, as evidenced by the almost complete attribution of DALYs to YLLs. To cope with this burden of disease, francophone Africa should define its priorities and invest more resources in health-system strengthening and in the quality and quantity of health-care services, especially in rural and remote areas. The region could also be prioritised in terms of technical and financial assistance focused on achieving these goals, as much as on demographic investments including education and family planning.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Clustering of Health-Compromising Behaviours among Indian Adolescents

Background

The simultaneous occurrence of health-compromising behaviors can accentuate the risk of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to examine the existence and patterns of clustering of four NCD risk behaviors among adolescents and its association with social position. In addition, socioeconomic inequalities in the occurrence of clustering of NCD risk behaviors were also assessed.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was undertaken among 1218 adolescents (14-19 years old) in the city of New Delhi, India. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to assess health-compromising behaviors (tobacco and alcohol use, fruit/vegetable intake, and physical inactivity). Clustering was assessed using pairwise correlations, counts of clustering of health-compromising behaviors, comparison of observed/expected ratios, and hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to test the associations of clustering with social position (education and wealth). The relative and slope indices of inequalities in the presence of clustering of behaviors according to education and wealth were estimated.

Results

Three major clusters of health behaviors emerged: (a) physical inactivity + lower fruit and vegetable intake, (b) tobacco + alcohol use, and (c) lower fruit and vegetable intake + tobacco + alcohol use. Pronounced clustering of health-compromising behaviors was observed with lower educational attainment and wealth.

Conclusion

The presence of clustering of health-compromising behaviors was considerably higher among adolescents with lower educational attainment and wealth. The area of residence has an important influence on socioeconomic inequalities in clustering of NCD risk factors.

Missed opportunities for NCD multimorbidity prevention in adolescents and youth living with HIV in urban South Africa

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological transition in high HIV-burden settings is resulting in a rise in HIV/NCD multimorbidity. The majority of NCD risk behaviours start during adolescence, making this an important target group for NCD prevention and multimorbidity prevention in adolescents with a chronic condition such as HIV. However, there is data paucity on NCD risk and prevention in adolescents with HIV in high HIV-burden settings. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which NCD comorbidity (prevention, diagnosis, and management) is incorporated within existing adolescent HIV primary healthcare services in Cape Town, South Africa.

METHODS

We reviewed medical records of 491 adolescents and youth living with HIV (AYLHIV) aged 10-24 years across nine primary care facilities in Cape Town from November 2018-March 2019. Folders were systematically sampled from a master list of all AYLHIV per facility and information on HIV management and care, NCDs, NCD risk and NCD-related health promotion extracted.

RESULTS

The median age was 20 years (IQR: 14-23); median age at ART initiation 18 years (IQR: 6-21) and median duration on ART 3 years (IQR: 1.1-8.9). Fifty five percent of participants had a documented comorbidity, of which 11% had an NCD diagnosis with chronic respiratory diseases (60%) and mental disorders (37%) most common. Of those with documented anthropometrics (62%), 48% were overweight or obese. Fifty nine percent of participants had a documented blood pressure, of which 27% were abnormal. Twenty-six percent had a documented health promoting intervention, 42% of which were NCD-related; ranging from alcohol or substance abuse (13%); smoking (9%); healthy weight or diet (9%) and mental health counselling (10%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates limited NCD screening and health promotion in AYLHIV accessing healthcare services. Where documented, our data demonstrates existing NCD comorbidity and NCD risk factors highlighting a missed opportunity for multimorbidity prevention through NCD screening and health promotion. Addressing this missed opportunity requires an integrated health system and intersectoral action on upstream NCD determinants to turn the tide on the rising NCD and multimorbidity epidemic.

High-priority carcinogenic occupational agents and activities for health surveillance in Brazil

The aims of the present study were to assemble a list of carcinogens considered as having high priority for occupational health actions in Brazil and to describe the process followed to validate it. Through a literature review we retrieved the main carcinogens used in production activities in Brazil, the carcinogenicity classification developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and corresponding types of cancer relevant within the Brazilian context. The list thus assembled was reviewed and validated by an expert panel. It includes known and suspected carcinogens found in the production process of some industries in Brazil, and might serve as orientation for future studies on the burden of occupational cancer.

Analysis of mast cells and myocardial fibrosis in autopsied patients with hypertensive heart disease

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the percentage of collagen fibers and mast cell density in the left ventricular myocardium of autopsied patients with and without hypertensive heart disease.

METHODS

Thirty fragments of left ventricular myocardium were obtained from individuals autopsied at the Clinical Hospital of the Federal University of Triângulo Mineiro (UFTM) in the period from 1987 to 2017. Individuals were divided into two groups: those with hypertensive heart disease (HD) and those with no heart disease (ND). Subjects were also assessed according to age, gender and race (white and non-white). Collagen fibers were quantified by computed morphometry and mast cell density was assessed by immunohistochemical methods.

RESULTS

There were significantly more collagen fibers in the left ventricle in the HD group than in the ND group (p<0.001). Mast cell density was significantly higher in the left ventricle of individuals with HD immunolabeled with anti-chymase and anti-tryptase antibodies (p=0.02) and also of those immunolabeled only with anti-tryptase antibodies (p=0.03). Analyzing the HD group, there was a significant positive correlation between the percentage of collagen fibers in the left ventricle and mast cell density immunolabeled by anti-chymase and anti-tryptase antibodies (p=0.04) and also mast cell density immunolabeled only with anti-tryptase antibodies (p=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Mast cells are involved in the development of hypertensive heart disease, contributing to the remodeling of collagen fibers in this disease.

Variations in common diseases, hospital admissions, and deaths in middle-aged adults in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches.

METHODS

The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years.

FINDINGS

This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162 534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5-10·9). During follow-up, 11 307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs.

INTERPRETATION

Among adults aged 35-70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care.

FUNDING

Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Effects of school-based physical activity and multi-micronutrient supplementation intervention on growth, health and well-being of schoolchildren in three African countries: the KaziAfya cluster randomised controlled trial protocol with a 2 × 2 factorial design

BACKGROUND

In low- and middle-income countries, infectious diseases remain a key public health issue. Additionally, non-communicable diseases are a rapidly growing public health problem that impose a considerable burden on population health. One way to address this dual disease burden, is to incorporate (lifestyle) health promotion measures within the education sector. In the planned study, we will (i) assess and compare physical activity, physical fitness, micronutrient status, body composition, infections with soil-transmitted helminths, Schistosoma mansoni, malaria, inflammatory and cardiovascular health risk markers, cognitive function, health-related quality of life, and sleep in schoolchildren in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa and Tanzania. We will (ii) determine the bi- and multivariate associations between these variables and (iii) examine the effects of a school-based health intervention that consists of physical activity, multi-micronutrient supplementation, or both.

METHODS

Assuming that no interaction occurs between the two interventions (physical activity and multi-micronutrient supplementation), the study is designed as a cluster-randomised, placebo-controlled trial with a 2 × 2 factorial design. Data will be obtained at three time points: at baseline and at 9 months and 21 months after the baseline assessment. In each country, 1320 primary schoolchildren from grades 1-4 will be recruited. In each school, classes will be randomly assigned to one of four interventions: (i) physical activity; (ii) multi-micronutrient supplementation; (iii) physical activity plus multi-micronutrient supplementation; and (iv) no intervention, which will serve as the control. A placebo product will be given to all children who do not receive multi-micronutrient supplementation. After obtaining written informed consent from the parents/guardians, the children will be subjected to anthropometric, clinical, parasitological and physiological assessments. Additionally, fitness tests will be performed, and children will be invited to wear an accelerometer device for 7 days to objectively assess their physical activity. Children infected with S. mansoni and soil-transmitted helminths will receive deworming drugs according to national policies. Health and nutrition education will be provided to the whole study population independently of the study arm allocation.

DISCUSSION

The study builds on the experience and lessons of a previous study conducted in South Africa. It involves three African countries with different social-ecological contexts to investigate whether results are generalisable across the continent.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered on August 9, 2018, with ISRCTN. https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN29534081.

Effects of school-based physical activity and multi-micronutrient supplementation intervention on growth, health and well-being of schoolchildren in three African countries: the KaziAfya cluster randomised controlled trial protocol with a 2 × 2 factorial design

BACKGROUND

In low- and middle-income countries, infectious diseases remain a key public health issue. Additionally, non-communicable diseases are a rapidly growing public health problem that impose a considerable burden on population health. One way to address this dual disease burden, is to incorporate (lifestyle) health promotion measures within the education sector. In the planned study, we will (i) assess and compare physical activity, physical fitness, micronutrient status, body composition, infections with soil-transmitted helminths, Schistosoma mansoni, malaria, inflammatory and cardiovascular health risk markers, cognitive function, health-related quality of life, and sleep in schoolchildren in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa and Tanzania. We will (ii) determine the bi- and multivariate associations between these variables and (iii) examine the effects of a school-based health intervention that consists of physical activity, multi-micronutrient supplementation, or both.

METHODS

Assuming that no interaction occurs between the two interventions (physical activity and multi-micronutrient supplementation), the study is designed as a cluster-randomised, placebo-controlled trial with a 2 × 2 factorial design. Data will be obtained at three time points: at baseline and at 9 months and 21 months after the baseline assessment. In each country, 1320 primary schoolchildren from grades 1-4 will be recruited. In each school, classes will be randomly assigned to one of four interventions: (i) physical activity; (ii) multi-micronutrient supplementation; (iii) physical activity plus multi-micronutrient supplementation; and (iv) no intervention, which will serve as the control. A placebo product will be given to all children who do not receive multi-micronutrient supplementation. After obtaining written informed consent from the parents/guardians, the children will be subjected to anthropometric, clinical, parasitological and physiological assessments. Additionally, fitness tests will be performed, and children will be invited to wear an accelerometer device for 7 days to objectively assess their physical activity. Children infected with S. mansoni and soil-transmitted helminths will receive deworming drugs according to national policies. Health and nutrition education will be provided to the whole study population independently of the study arm allocation.

DISCUSSION

The study builds on the experience and lessons of a previous study conducted in South Africa. It involves three African countries with different social-ecological contexts to investigate whether results are generalisable across the continent.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered on August 9, 2018, with ISRCTN. https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN29534081.

Epidemiological impact of targeted interventions for people with diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis transmission in India: Modelling based predictions

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a leading driver of tuberculosis (TB) disease in TB-DM burdened countries. We aimed to assess the impact on TB disease of several intervention strategies targeting people with DM in India.

METHODS

A previously validated TB-DM mathematical model was extended to include interventions targeting DM individuals. The model stratified the population by age, DM status, TB infection status and stage, TB disease form, treatment, recovery, and intervention status.

RESULTS

By 2050, different TB vaccination strategies (coverage of 50 % and vaccine efficacies ranging between 50 %-60 %) reduced TB incidence and mortality rates by 4.5 %-20.8 % and 4.1 %-22.1 %, respectively, and averted 3.1 %-12.8 % of TB disease cases in the total population. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one TB case (effectiveness) was 14-105. Varying the coverage levels of latent TB treatment (coverage of 50 %-80 % and drug effectiveness of 90 %) reduced TB incidence and mortality rates by 7.1 %-11.3 % and 8.2 %-13.0 %, respectively, averting 4.2 %-6.7 % of TB cases, with effectiveness of 38-40. Different scenarios for dual and concurrent treatment of those with TB and DM, reduced TB incidence and mortality rates by 0.1 %-0.4 % and 1.3 %-4.8 %, respectively, averting 0.1 %-0.2 % of TB cases, with effectiveness of 28-107. Different scenarios for managing and controlling DM (regardless of TB status) reduced TB incidence and mortality rates by 4.5 %-16.5 % and 6.5 %-22.2 %, respectively, averting 2.9 %-10.8 % of TB cases, with effectiveness of 6-24.

CONCLUSION

Gains can be attained by targeting DM individuals with interventions to reduce TB burden. Most strategies were effective with <50 intervention doses needed to avert one TB disease case, informing key updates of current treatment guidelines.