Cost components of school-based oral health-promoting programs: A systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Oral health-promoting school programs play a crucial role in achieving universal coverage of oral health care, by addressing oral diseases and promoting the well-being and quality of life of children and adolescents. However, a lack of studies has evaluated the costs associated with implementing these programs, which hinders decision-makers in adopting them on a large scale. This review aims to assess the cost components involved in school-based oral health-promoting programs.

METHODS

This review will include studies that have conducted either partial or full economic evaluations, focusing on describing the cost components of oral health-promoting programs implemented in primary schools involving students aged 6 to 14. A systematic search was conducted across multiple databases: MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, the Virtual Health Library, the NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Web of Science, Scopus, and EMBASE. Additionally, gray literature was searched using the Health Technology Assessment Database. Two independent reviewers will screen the titles and abstracts, followed by a full-text review based on predefined inclusion criteria. Data extraction and critical appraisal evaluation will also be carried out independently by two reviewers. In case of disagreements, the reviewer team will resolve them through discussion.

DISCUSSION

The systematic review resulting from this protocol aims to provide evidence regarding the cost components and necessary resources for implementing and maintaining oral health-promoting school programs. This information can assist decision-makers in adopting these programs on a larger scale and effectively addressing oral diseases among children and adolescents.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

CRD42022363743.

The relationship between traumatic dental injuries and adolescents' non-suicidal self-injury behaviour: A cross-sectional analysis of an East London cohort

BACKGROUND/AIM

Recent reviews of case reports have pointed out a potential connection between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and traumatic dental injuries (TDIs). The aim of this study was to investigate the association of a history of NSSI with TDIs in 15- to 16-year-old adolescents.

METHODS

This study analysed cross-sectional data from the Research with East London Adolescents Community Health Survey, a prospective population survey of adolescents attending state schools in East London, England. The history of NSSI was obtained using two items from the Lifestyle and Coping questionnaire (whether they have ever engaged with self-harm and the last time they engaged in such behaviours). The presence of TDIs, increased overjet and inadequate lip coverage were determined through clinical assessments by two trained dentists. Survey logistic regression was fitted to test the association of NSSI with TDIs. Odds ratios (ORs) were adjusted for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics as potential confounders.

RESULTS

The lifetime and last-year prevalence of NSSI were 11.9% and 6.7%, respectively, whereas the prevalence of TDIs was 16.5%. Neither the lifetime prevalence of NSSI (OR: 1.02, 95% confidence interval: 0.56-1.85) nor the last-year prevalence of NSSI (OR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.36-1.61) were associated with TDIs in regression models adjusted for confounders.

CONCLUSION

This study did not support an association between history of NSSI and TDIs among adolescents aged 15-16 years old in East London.

IMPACT OF BARIATRIC SURGERY IN ANXIETY AND ORAL CONDITION OF OBESE INDIVIDUALS: A COHORT PROSPECTIVE STUDY

BACKGROUND

Obesity and bariatric surgery may be related with mental and oral disorders.

AIM

To evaluate the impact of bariatric surgery on anxiety, initial dental caries lesion and gingival bleeding in obese patients.

METHODS

Eighty-nine patients were divided in two groups: Control Group (CG) - obese patients and Experimental Group (EG) - patients submitted to bariatric surgery. EG was analyzed before and 12 months after bariatric surgery; for the CG, was respected an interval of 12 months between the evaluations. International Caries Detection and Assessment System, Gingival Bleeding Index and Trace-State Anxiety Inventory were used. Medical profile, anthropometrics data, sociodemographic and behavioral variables were considered.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences between groups in evaluation times regarding to initial dental caries lesion and anxiety. However, the number of teeth with initial dental caries lesion (p=0.0033) and gingival bleeding (p<0.0001) increased significantly after bariatric surgery in EG.

CONCLUSION

These results reinforce the need for multi-professional team follow-up, including dental care, for both obese and bariatric patients.

Troublesome behaviour and traumatic dental injuries during adolescence

BACKGROUND/AIM

Troublesome behaviour can lead to bodily injuries among young people, although a link with traumatic dental injuries (TDIs) remains unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the longitudinal association between troublesome behaviour and TDIs during adolescence.

METHODS

This study analysed data from phases 2 and 3 of the Research with East London Adolescents Community Health Survey (RELACHS), a longitudinal study of public secondary schools in East London. Troublesome behaviour in the past 12 months was measured with 8 items (told lies to get things from others, started fight, bullied or threatened people, stayed late outside, stole valuable things, ran away from home, played truant from school and intentionally destroyed someone else's property) from the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA), when participants were 13-14 years old (Phase 2). Adolescents were dentally examined for TDIs when they were 15-16 years old (Phase 3). The association between troublesome behaviour and TDIs was tested in logistic regression models adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and oral clinical factors.

RESULTS

Forty-three per cent of adolescents reported one or more troublesome behaviours at age 13-14 years, and 16% had evidence of TDIs by age 15-16 years. Adolescents who answered 'perhaps' and 'definitely' to any troublesome behaviour item had, respectively, 1.37 (95% CI: 0.62-3.00) and 1.50 (95% CI: 0.69-3.30) greater odds of having TDIs than those who answered 'no' after adjustment for confounders. Of the 8 behaviours assessed, having run away from home, bullied or threatened people, often told lies, and stolen valuable things were associated with having TDIs.

CONCLUSION

This study among adolescents shows that reporting troublesome behaviour was associated with TDIs two years later. Given the wide confidence intervals for these associations, the present findings require confirmation from further longitudinal studies.

Ethnic differences in treatment preferences among adults in East London

Aim To explore ethnic differences in treatment preferences among adults.Methods A sample of 1,764 adults from ten ethnic groups were recruited from the adult population in Outer North East London using stratified multistage random sampling. Treatment preferences for a front tooth, a back tooth and an aching back tooth were collected via questionnaires. Ethnic differences in treatment preferences were assessed in regression models adjusting for demographic characteristics, socioeconomic indicators, dental visiting behaviour and clinical dental status.Results Ethnic differences in treatment preferences were observed, albeit only for back not front teeth. Compared to White British, Black African (odds ratio: 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-0.97), Caribbean (0.71; 95% CI: 0.51-0.98) and Other (0.73; 95% CI: 0.61-0.87) were less likely to preserve a back tooth. If the back tooth was aching, Black Others were still less likely (0.82; 95% CI: 0.71-0.93) to opt for restorative than surgical treatment. On the contrary, Bangladeshi were more likely (1.14; 95% CI: 1.06-1.22) to preserve a painful back tooth than White British.Conclusion Differences in treatment preferences were found among ethnic groups, suggesting that cultural background might influence the choices made and the value placed on dental extractions versus restorative treatment.

Role of Dentistry in Global Health: Challenges and Research Priorities

Despite some improvements in the oral health of populations globally, major problems remain all over the planet, most notably among underprivileged communities of low- and middle-income countries but also in high-income countries. Furthermore, essential oral health care has been a privilege, instead of a right, for most individuals. The release of the Lancet issue on oral health in July 2019 built up some momentum and put oral conditions and dental services in the limelight. Yet, much work is still needed to bridge the gap between dental research and global health and get oral health recognized as a population health priority worldwide. Using the framework proposed by Shiffman, we argue that a global health network for oral health must be harnessed to influence global health policy and drive health system reform. We have identified challenges around 4 key areas (problem definition, positioning, coalition building, and governance) from our experience working in the global health arena and with collaborators in multidisciplinary teams. These challenges are outlined here to validate them externally but also to call the attention of interested players inside and outside dentistry. How well our profession addresses these challenges will shape our performance during the Sustainable Development Goals era and beyond. This analysis is followed by a discussion of fundamental gaps in knowledge, particularly in 3 areas of oral health action: 1) epidemiology and health information systems; 2) collection, harmonization, and rigorous assessment of evidence for prevention, equity, and treatment; and 3) optimal strategies for delivering essential quality care to all who need it without financial hardship.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dentistry

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the delivery of health services across the world. The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak to be a global pandemic on 11th March 2020, prompting the closure of dental services worldwide. The main reason for this was the infection risk associated with Aerosol Generating Procedures (AGP), such as the use of high-speed drills (Al-Halabi et al., 2020). During this period, even access to emergency dental care has been limited. A review of the current guidance issued by international organisations and professional bodies regarding the re-opening of dental services showed considerable variation in the safety procedures required. Most sources recommended triage of patients and an emphasis on only emergency and urgent care; wearing filtering facepiece class 2 masks; reducing the risk of transmission; and avoiding AGP. All sources stressed the need to focus on activities that minimise risk to staff, patients and the public, and to support high quality clinical care (CoDER, 2020).

Cumulative socio-economic disadvantage and traumatic dental injuries during adolescence

BACKGROUND/AIM

Studies on the association between socio-economic circumstances and traumatic dental injuries (TDIs) are cross-sectional and inconclusive. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between cumulative socio-economic disadvantage and TDIs among adolescents.

METHOD

Data from 668 participants in the East London Adolescents Community Health Survey (RELACHS) were analysed. Family socio-economic indicators (parental employment, car ownership and eligibility for free school meals) were collected when participants were in grades 7 (11-12 years), 9 (13-14 years) and 11 (15-16 years). The number of periods (RELACHS waves) adolescents lived in socio-economic disadvantage was counted for each socio-economic measure, ranging from 0 (never in disadvantage) to 3 (always in disadvantage). Adolescents were dentally examined for TDIs at age 15-16 years. The association between each measure of cumulative socio-economic disadvantage and TDIs was tested in logistic regression models adjusting for demographic factors.

RESULTS

Significant positive linear trends in the prevalence of TDIs were observed by the number of periods of parental unemployment and being without a family car, but not by eligibility for free school meals. Adolescents whose parents were always unemployed had 2.06 (95% CI: 1.12-3.80) greater odds of having TDIs than those whose parents were never unemployed. Similarly, adolescents from families that never owned a car had 2.17 (95% CI: 1.26-3.74) greater odds of having TDIs than those that always had a family car.

CONCLUSION

Cumulative socio-economic disadvantage during adolescence was associated with greater odds of having TDIs.

Can minimal intervention dentistry help in tackling the global burden of untreated dental caries?

The latest estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study show that dental caries remains a neglected global health issue, with over two billion people suffering the consequences of this highly preventable disease globally. The two main goals of a national health system are to improve population health and reduce health inequalities, which are often achieved through prevention and promotion for everyone, as well as treatment and rehabilitation for the sick. Oral health promotion should be integrated with national policies for the prevention of non-communicable diseases, especially those targeting the intake of free sugars. The ongoing debate on universal health coverage (UHC) offers a unique opportunity to align dental care with essential health services, which all countries are expected to provide. Minimal intervention dentistry (MID) protocols for management of carious lesions, such as the atraumatic restorative technique, silver diamine fluoride and the Hall Technique, could help tackle the global burden of untreated caries as they are cost-effective in the long run. However, the successful implementation in primary dental care and training the new cadre of dentists adequately are pending issues if MID is to facilitate the inclusion of dental care as part of the UHC agenda.

Can socioeconomic and psychosocial factors predict the duration of orthodontic treatment?

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Very little is known about the role of socioeconomic and psychosocial factors in predicting orthodontic treatment duration. Thus, this study aimed to test whether socioeconomic position (SEP) and psychosocial factors, namely, family environment and resiliency can predict orthodontic treatment duration.

METHODS

Data were analysed from a hospital-based, prospective, longitudinal study that recruited 145 consecutively selected 12- to 16-year-old male and female adolescents. Baseline SEP and psychosocial data were collected by a validated child self-completed questionnaire before the placement of fixed appliances. Linear regression analysis was used.

RESULTS

The response rate was 98.6 per cent and the dropout was 8.2 per cent. Maternal emotional support was an important predictor of orthodontic treatment duration. Adolescents with high levels of maternal emotional support were more likely to have a shorter orthodontic treatment duration (by nearly four months) than those with low levels of maternal emotional support (P = 0.02). Parental SEP, paternal emotional support, maternal and paternal control, as well as resiliency were not significantly associated with orthodontic treatment duration (P > 0.05). The multivariable regression analysis (including age, gender, and malocclusion severity) confirmed the significance of maternal emotional support as a predictor of orthodontic treatment duration.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal emotional support is an important predictor of orthodontic treatment duration. This may be explained by a higher maternal involvement in the orthodontic treatment, which may have facilitated achieving the required orthodontic treatment outcome in a shorter treatment duration.

Global, Regional, and National Levels and Trends in Burden of Oral Conditions from 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Government and nongovernmental organizations need national and global estimates on the descriptive epidemiology of common oral conditions for policy planning and evaluation. The aim of this component of the Global Burden of Disease study was to produce estimates on prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability for oral conditions from 1990 to 2017 by sex, age, and countries. In addition, this study reports the global socioeconomic pattern in burden of oral conditions by the standard World Bank classification of economies as well as the Global Burden of Disease Socio-demographic Index. The findings show that oral conditions remain a substantial population health challenge. Globally, there were 3.5 billion cases (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 3.2 to 3.7 billion) of oral conditions, of which 2.3 billion (95% UI, 2.1 to 2.5 billion) had untreated caries in permanent teeth, 796 million (95% UI, 671 to 930 million) had severe periodontitis, 532 million (95% UI, 443 to 622 million) had untreated caries in deciduous teeth, 267 million (95% UI, 235 to 300 million) had total tooth loss, and 139 million (95% UI, 133 to 146 million) had other oral conditions in 2017. Several patterns emerged when the World Bank’s classification of economies and the Socio-demographic Index were used as indicators of economic development. In general, more economically developed countries have the lowest burden of untreated dental caries and severe periodontitis and the highest burden of total tooth loss. The findings offer an opportunity for policy makers to identify successful oral health strategies and strengthen them; introduce and monitor different approaches where oral diseases are increasing; plan integration of oral health in the agenda for prevention of noncommunicable diseases; and estimate the cost of providing universal coverage for dental care.

Depressive symptoms and traumatic dental injuries among adolescents

BACKGROUND/AIM

A previous cross-sectional study found that young adults with depression were more likely to have traumatic dental injuries (TDIs). The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between depressive symptoms during early and middle adolescence, and TDIs at age 15-16 years.

METHOD

This study used longitudinal data from phases 1 and 3 of the Research with East London Adolescents Community Health Survey (RELACHS), a school-based survey following a representative, multi-ethnic sample of adolescents attending public schools in East London (England). Information on depressive symptoms was collected using the Short Moods and Feelings Questionnaire (SMFQ) during early (age 11-12 years) and middle adolescence (age 15-16 years). TDIs were identified during clinical examinations in phase 3 when pupils were 15-16 years old. Logistic regression was used to test the association between depressive symptoms at different stages of adolescence and TDIs adjusting for confounders (age, gender, ethnicity, parental employment and overjet).

RESULTS

Depressive symptoms were reported by 24% and 32% of adolescents in early and middle adolescence, respectively. Evidence of TDIs was found in 18% of adolescents at age 15-16 years. Adolescents with depressive symptoms, either in early or middle adolescence, had greater odds of experiencing TDIs. However, these estimates were not statistically significant. In regression models adjusted for confounders, the odds of having TDIs were 1.23 (95% CI: 0.77-1.96) and 1.23 (95% CI: 0.76-1.95) among pupils with depressive symptoms in early and middle adolescence, respectively.

CONCLUSION

There was no association between depressive symptoms and TDIs in early and middle adolescents.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Illicit drug use and traumatic dental injuries in adolescents

OBJECTIVE

To explore the association between illicit drug use and traumatic dental injuries (TDI) among adolescents.

METHOD

We used data from 618 adolescents who participated in Phases I and III of Research with East Adolescents Community Health Survey (RELACHS), a longitudinal school-based study of adolescents in East London. Illicit drug use was collected when participants were 11-12 and 15-16 years old (Phases I and III, respectively). Clinical examinations for TDI were conducted in Phase III only. The association of lifetime prevalence of illicit drug use at ages 11-12 and 15-16 years with TDI was evaluated in crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 6.3% and 25.4% of adolescents reported having ever used illicit drugs at ages 11-12 (Phase I) and 15-16 years (Phase III), respectively. Also, 8.7% of adolescents were found to have TDI at age 15-16 years. There was no significant association between lifetime prevalence of illicit drug use reported at age 11-12 years (Odds Ratio: 1.07; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.45-2.54) or age 15-16 years (OR: 1.19; 95%CI: 0.74-1.93) and TDI.

CONCLUSION

This study found no support for an association between illicit drug use and TDI among adolescents from East London.

Family environment and traumatic dental injuries in adolescents

BACKGROUND/AIMS

No comprehensive assessment of the influence of the home environment on traumatic dental injuries (TDI) has been conducted to date. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between family environment and TDI among adolescents from East London.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study used data from 646 adolescents who participated in phase III of the Research with East London Adolescents Community Health Survey (RELACHS). Family environment was measured with four indicators (non-nuclear family, discordant parental relationship and levels of parental support and parental punishment) measured through a self-administered questionnaire. Clinical examinations were performed for TDI, overjet and lip coverage. Logistic regression was used to test the crude and adjusted (controlling for sociodemographic and clinical factors) association of each family environment characteristic with TDI prevalence.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine percent of adolescents were from non-nuclear families, and 52.3% reported a discordant parental relationship. The mean score for parental support was -0.01 (SD: 0.90, range: -0.11 to 0.08), and the mean parental punishment score was 0.03 (SD: 0.86, range: -0.04 to 0.10). Adolescents from non-nuclear families had 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.06-2.53) greater odds of having TDI than those from nuclear families. However, this association was fully attenuated after adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. The other three indicators of family environment were not associated with TDI either in crude or adjusted regression models.

CONCLUSION

This study found weak evidence of an association between family environment and TDI.

Burden of disease in Brazil, 1990-2016: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Political, economic, and epidemiological changes in Brazil have affected health and the health system. We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD 2016) results to understand changing health patterns and inform policy responses.

METHODS

We analysed GBD 2016 estimates for life expectancy at birth (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk factors for Brazil, its 26 states, and the Federal District from 1990 to 2016, and compared these with national estimates for ten comparator countries.

FINDINGS

Nationally, LE increased from 68·4 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·0-68·9) in 1990 to 75·2 years (74·7-75·7) in 2016, and HALE increased from 59·8 years (57·1-62·1) to 65·5 years (62·5-68·0). All-cause age-standardised mortality rates decreased by 34·0% (33·4-34·5), while all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 30·2% (27·7-32·8); the magnitude of declines varied among states. In 2016, ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of age-standardised YLLs, followed by interpersonal violence. Low back and neck pain, sense organ diseases, and skin diseases were the main causes of YLDs in 1990 and 2016. Leading risk factors contributing to DALYs in 2016 were alcohol and drug use, high blood pressure, and high body-mass index.

INTERPRETATION

Health improved from 1990 to 2016, but improvements and disease burden varied between states. An epidemiological transition towards non-communicable diseases and related risks occurred nationally, but later in some states, while interpersonal violence grew as a health concern. Policy makers can use these results to address health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Brazilian Ministry of Health.

Global, Regional, and National Prevalence, Incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Oral Conditions for 195 Countries, 1990-2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors

The Global Burden of Disease 2015 study aims to use all available data of sufficient quality to generate reliable and valid prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) estimates of oral conditions for the period of 1990 to 2015. Since death as a direct result of oral diseases is rare, DALY estimates were based on years lived with disability, which are estimated only on those persons with unmet need for dental care. We used our data to assess progress toward the Federation Dental International, World Health Organization, and International Association for Dental Research’s oral health goals of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact by 2020. Oral health has not improved in the last 25 y, and oral conditions remained a major public health challenge all over the world in 2015. Due to demographic changes, including population growth and aging, the cumulative burden of oral conditions dramatically increased between 1990 and 2015. The number of people with untreated oral conditions rose from 2.5 billion in 1990 to 3.5 billion in 2015, with a 64% increase in DALYs due to oral conditions throughout the world. Clearly, oral diseases are highly prevalent in the globe, posing a very serious public health challenge to policy makers. Greater efforts and potentially different approaches are needed if the oral health goal of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact is to be achieved by 2020. Despite some challenges with current measurement methodologies for oral diseases, measurable specific oral health goals should be developed to advance global public health.

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

IMPORTANCE

Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results.

FINDINGS

In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

Is there a role for community pharmacists in promoting oral health?

AIM

The main aim of the present study was to investigate whether pharmacists recognised that they have a role in the promotion of oral health advice within the community.

METHODS

A cross sectional survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire which was distributed to randomly selected pharmacies (n = 1,500) in the London area.

RESULTS

Six hundred and forty-five pharmacies (43%) responded to the initial invitation and 589 (39%) of pharmacy participants acknowledged that pharmacists should have a role in oral health promotion. Participants from 354 pharmacies (23.6%) subsequently agreed to complete the questionnaire. Of those pharmacies completing the questionnaire, 99.4% of the pharmacy participants recognised that there was a role for pharmacists in oral health promotion. Although 91.5% of the pharmacists reported a fairly high level of knowledge for most of the common oral conditions, they also indicated that they were interested in receiving further training on oral conditions through continuing professional development (CPD) courses. A number of the pharmacies (72.5%) expressed a willingness to incorporate oral health promotion within the NHS pharmacy contract.

CONCLUSION

Pharmacies may be used effectively in oral health promotion by virtue of their frequent contact with members of public. As a result of their established role in promoting and improving the health within the community, it may possible to incorporate oral health within the existing NHS contract.

Obesity, physical activity and traumatic dental injuries in adolescents from East London

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Evidence on the interplay between obesity, physical activity and traumatic dental injuries (TDIs) is still inconclusive and heavily based on cross-sectional studies. The aim of this study was to explore the interrelationship of obesity and physical activity at age 11-12 years with TDI at age 15-16-years among schoolchildren from East London.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

Data were analysed regarding 598 adolescents who participated in phases I and III of the Research with East London Adolescents Community Health Survey (RELACHS), a longitudinal, school-based study of adolescents in East London. Participants reported their level of physical activity and their height and weight were measured to estimate body mass index Z-scores (according to the UK growth reference) when they were 11-12 years old. Oral clinical examinations were conducted to assess TDI, overjet and lip coverage when participants were 15-16 years old. The associations of obesity and physical activity with TDI were evaluated in crude and adjusted models using binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 22.6% of adolescents were obese and 7.2% exercised for 7 h or more a week at baseline, while 18.1% of adolescents had experienced TDI by age 15-16 years. Physical activity (7+ hours per week) was significantly associated with TDI (odds ratio: 2.19; 95% confidence interval: 1.08-4.43) in the crude model. However, no significant associations were found between obesity and TDI (1.18; 95% CI: 0.72-1.93) or physical activity and TDI (1.96; 95% CI: 0.94-4.07) in adjusted models.

CONCLUSION

This study found no evidence of any associations of obesity and physical activity with TDI among adolescents from East London.

Does Psychological Stress Mediate Social Deprivation in Tooth Loss?

It is unclear which theoretical dimension of psychological stress affects health status. We hypothesized that both distress and coping mediate the relationship between socio-economic position and tooth loss. Cross-sectional data from 2915 middle-aged adults evaluated retention of < 20 teeth, behaviors, psychological stress, and sociodemographic characteristics. Principal components analysis of the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) extracted ’distress’ (a = 0.85) and ’coping’ (a =0.83) factors, consistent with theory. Hierarchical entry of explanatory variables into age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals [95% CI] for retention of < 20 teeth. Analysis of the separate contributions of distress and coping revealed a significant main effect of coping (OR = 0.7 [95% CI = 0.7–0.8]), but no effect for distress (OR = 1.0 [95% CI = 0.9–1.1]) or for the interaction of coping and distress. Behavior and psychological stress only modestly attenuated socio-economic inequality in retention of < 20 teeth, providing evidence to support a mediating role of coping.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background

The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013.

Methods

GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically.

Findings

The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred.

Interpretation

Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

METHODS

For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

FINDINGS

Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

INTERPRETATION

Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

Alcohol consumption at age 11-12 years and traumatic dental injuries at age 15-16 years in school children from East London

AIM

To explore the association between alcohol consumption at age 11-12 years and traumatic dental injuries (TDI) at age 15-16 years.

METHODS

Data of 635 adolescents who participated in phases I and III of the Research with East London Adolescents Community Health Survey (RELACHS), a longitudinal school-based survey of a representative sample of adolescents from East London, were used for this study. Information on socio-demographic characteristics and alcohol consumption was obtained from questionnaires in phase I when adolescents were 11-12 years of age. Data on TDI and clinical characteristics (incisor overjet and lip coverage) were taken from clinical examination in phase III when adolescents were 15-16 years of age. The association between (lifetime and last month) alcohol consumption and TDI was assessed in crude and adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 14.5% of adolescents had ever consumed alcohol and 3.5% had consumed alcohol the month before the baseline survey, whereas 17% of adolescents had experienced TDI by age 15-16 years. No significant association of alcohol consumption with TDI was seen in these adolescents for either lifetime (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.45-1.67) or last month consumption of alcohol (adjusted OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.28-2.69).

CONCLUSION

This study did not support the association between alcohol use and TDI in adolescents.

Inequality of Experience of Dental Caries between Different Ethnic Groups of Brazilians Aged 15 to 19 Years

Introduction

The aim of this study was to assess inequality of experience of dental caries, based on race/ethnicity, among Brazilian adolescents aged 15 to 19 years in 2010 and test whether socioeconomic indicators fully explain ethnic differences in dental caries.

Methods

Data from a National Oral Health Survey conducted in Brazil in 2010 was analysed. Race/ethnicity was self-assigned and modified to White, African descents, East Asian descents, Mixed Race and Indigenous descents. The prevalence of caries experience by race/ethnic group in 2010(n = 5,367) was calculated. Further analysis included conceptual hierarchical modelling and mediation analysis.

Results

Caries experience was 76.9% in 15 to 19 year old Brazilians in 2010. While African descents were 32% more likely to have caries experience than Whites, Mixed Race were 69% more likely to have caries experience than Whites. Hierarchical conceptual modelling analysis confirmed the highly significant association between caries and race/ethnicity. Mixed Race and East Asian descents were 1.44 (95% CI 1.24–1.67) and 1.81 (95% CI 1.02–3.20) times more likely to experience caries than Whites after adjusting for age, sex, education and income. The difference in the likelihood of experiencing caries between Whites and African descents was not statistically significant after adjusting for years of education and family income. The results of mediation analysis confirmed that inequality of caries experience between Whites and Mixed Race and East Asian descents was mediated through education and income. The likelihood that Mixed Race and East Asian descents would experience caries compared to Whites was attenuated, by 14.8% and by 9.5% respectively, after adjusting for years of education and income.

Conclusions

Data analysis demonstrated that Whites have benefited more from the significant reduction in dental caries experience in 15 to 19 year old Brazilians, as compared to African descents and Mixed Race. Education and income fully explained ethnic inequalities in experience of dental caries between Whites and African descents, and largely explained inequalities between Whites and Mixed Race.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond.

METHODS

We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0-5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9-76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9-81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3-43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9-27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1-2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7-41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1-12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4-12·0]).

INTERPRETATION

Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS

We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

FINDINGS

Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

INTERPRETATION

Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Social inequalities in oral cancer literacy in an adult population in a multicultural deprived area of the UK

BACKGROUND

To report the level and correlates of oral cancer literacy in a deprived area of the UK.

METHODS

This study is part of the East London Oral Health Inequality Study, which included a representative sample of adults 16-65 (n = 2343) years old living in Waltham Forest, Redbridge and Barking and Dagenham in 2009-10. This cross-sectional study adopted a multi-stage, stratified, random sampling approach. Data were collected through home visits by trained examiners and interviewers. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was adopted.

RESULTS

Only 26.7% participants were aware that a small lesion in the mouth can develop into oral cancer, and 39.5% were aware that early treatment could prevent a lesion from developing into oral cancer. Adjusted odds ratios confirmed the social gradient in awareness that a small lesion in the mouth can develop into oral cancer, even after adjusting for age, gender and ethnicity. Inequalities in awareness that a small lesion in the mouth can develop into oral cancer were significantly attenuated after forcing education level into the equation. Interestingly, adjusting for education cancelled the difference previously observed between manual/routine and professional/managerial occupations.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral cancer literacy is poor among adults in Outer North East London, and we have identified particularly vulnerable sub-populations.

Global Economic Impact of Dental Diseases

Reporting the economic burden of oral diseases is important to evaluate the societal relevance of preventing and addressing oral diseases. In addition to treatment costs, there are indirect costs to consider, mainly in terms of productivity losses due to absenteeism from work. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the direct and indirect costs of dental diseases worldwide to approximate the global economic impact. Estimation of direct treatment costs was based on a systematic approach. For estimation of indirect costs, an approach suggested by the World Health Organization's Commission on Macroeconomics and Health was employed, which factored in 2010 values of gross domestic product per capita as provided by the International Monetary Fund and oral burden of disease estimates from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study. Direct treatment costs due to dental diseases worldwide were estimated at US$298 billion yearly, corresponding to an average of 4.6% of global health expenditure. Indirect costs due to dental diseases worldwide amounted to US$144 billion yearly, corresponding to economic losses within the range of the 10 most frequent global causes of death. Within the limitations of currently available data sources and methodologies, these findings suggest that the global economic impact of dental diseases amounted to US$442 billion in 2010. Improvements in population oral health may imply substantial economic benefits not only in terms of reduced treatment costs but also because of fewer productivity losses in the labor market.

Mother's Perception of General Family Functioning and Sugar Consumption of 3- and 4-Year-Old Children: The East London Family Study

Frequent consumption of sugary foods is a common risk factor for chronic diseases such as dental caries and obesity. Dietary patterns are acquired at home during early life and form a blueprint for dietary behaviours in later life. A favourable family environment can provide a supportive context that enhances the adoption of healthy dietary habits. The aim of this study was to identify the contribution of general family functioning towards the frequent consumption of sugary foods by 3- and 4-year-old children in Outer North East London. The research question was explored with data from the East London Family study, which collected data through home visits from a representative sample of adults and children living in Outer North East London in 2008-2010. This study analysed data from 3- and 4-year-old children (n = 698) and their mothers and included logistic regression, conceptual hierarchical modelling and mediation analysis. The results showed that 17% of the sample consumed sugary foods more than 4 times per day, and that effective general family functioning may help reducing frequent consumption of sugary foods. There was a 67% reduction in children's frequent consumption of sugary foods with every unit increase in the general family functioning score. Mother's higher education may also help reduce the frequent consumption of sugary foods by children. The negative impact of mother's lower education was buffered by the effect of effective general family functioning. The study findings underscore the prospect of identifying factors that contribute to the acquisition of good dietary behaviours.

Ethnic disparities in the oral health of three- to four-year-old children in East London

AIM

To report ethnic differences related to caries experience among three- to four-year-old children living in three of the most deprived boroughs in the UK in Inner North East London: Tower Hamlets, Hackney and Newham.

METHODS

This cross-sectional survey used a cluster sampling study design following the British Association for the Study of Community Dentistry protocol. Twenty nurseries from each borough were randomly selected and all three- to four-year-old children in selected nurseries were invited to participate (n = 2,434). Calibrated dentists examined children. Demographic information was obtained from schools.

RESULTS

One thousand, two hundred and eighty-five children were examined in 60 nurseries (response rate = 52.8%). Twenty-four percent of three- to four-year-old children had caries experience (mean dmft = 0.92). Few children (2.1%) had filled teeth. Children living in Hackney had significantly lower dmft scores (mean = 0.63) than children living in Newham (mean = 1.06) and Tower Hamlets (mean = 1.06). White European (mean = 1.91), Bangladeshi (mean = 1.05) and Pakistani (mean = 1.11) children had a significantly higher number of untreated carious teeth than White British children (mean = 0.56).

CONCLUSION

Preschool children from a White Eastern European, Bangladeshi and Pakistani background are likely to experience significantly poorer oral health than their White British counterparts. These findings have profound implications for commissioning dental services and oral health promotion.

Global burden of untreated caries: a systematic review and metaregression

We aimed to consolidate all epidemiologic data about untreated caries and subsequently generate internally consistent prevalence and incidence estimates for all countries, 20 age groups, and both sexes for 1990 and 2010. The systematic search of the literature yielded 18,311 unique citations. After screening titles and abstracts, we excluded 10,461 citations as clearly irrelevant to this systematic review, leaving 1,682 for full-text review. Furthermore, 1,373 publications were excluded following the validity assessment. Overall, 192 studies of 1,502,260 children aged 1 to 14 y in 74 countries and 186 studies of 3,265,546 individuals aged 5 y or older in 67 countries were included in separate metaregressions for untreated caries in deciduous and permanent teeth, respectively, using modeling resources from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study. In 2010, untreated caries in permanent teeth was the most prevalent condition worldwide, affecting 2.4 billion people, and untreated caries in deciduous teeth was the 10th-most prevalent condition, affecting 621 million children worldwide. The global age-standardized prevalence and incidence of untreated caries remained static between 1990 and 2010. There is evidence that the burden of untreated caries is shifting from children to adults, with 3 peaks in prevalence at ages 6, 25, and 70 y. Also, there were considerable variations in prevalence and incidence between regions and countries. Policy makers need to be aware of a predictable increasing burden of untreated caries due to population growth and longevity and a significant decrease in the prevalence of total tooth loss throughout the world from 1990 to 2010.

A theory led narrative review of one-to-one health interventions: the influence of attachment style and client-provider relationship on client adherence

A theory-led narrative approach was used to unpack the complexities of the factors that enable successful client adherence following one-to-one health interventions. Understanding this could prepare the provider to anticipate different adherence behaviours by clients, allowing them to tailor their interventions to increase the likelihood of adherence. The review was done in two stages. A theoretical formulation was proposed to explore factors which influence the effectiveness of one-to-one interventions to result in client adherence. The second stage tested this theory using a narrative synthesis approach. Eleven studies across the health care arena were included in the synthesis and explored the interplay between client attachment style, client-provider interaction and client adherence with health interventions. It emerged that adherence results substantially because of the relationship that the client has with the provider, which is amplified or diminished by the client's own attachment style. This occurs because the client's attachment style shapes how they perceive and behave in relationships with the health-care providers, who become the 'secure base' from which the client accepts, assimilates and adheres with the recommended health intervention. The pathway from one-to-one interventions to adherence is explained using moderated mediation and mediated moderation models.

Global burden of severe periodontitis in 1990-2010: a systematic review and meta-regression

We aimed to consolidate all epidemiologic data about severe periodontitis (SP) and, subsequently, to generate internally consistent prevalence and incidence estimates for all countries, 20 age groups, and both sexes for 1990 and 2010. The systematic search of the literature yielded 6,394 unique citations. After screening titles and abstracts, we excluded 5,881 citations as clearly not relevant to this systematic review, leaving 513 for full-text review. A further 441 publications were excluded following the validity assessment. A total of 72 studies, including 291,170 individuals aged 15 yr or older in 37 countries, were included in the metaregression based on modeling resources of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study. SP was the sixth-most prevalent condition in the world. Between 1990 and 2010, the global age-standardized prevalence of SP was static at 11.2% (95% uncertainty interval: 10.4%-11.9% in 1990 and 10.5%-12.0% in 2010). The age-standardized incidence of SP in 2010 was 701 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval: 599-823), a nonsignificant increase from the 1990 incidence of SP. Prevalence increased gradually with age, showing a steep increase between the third and fourth decades of life that was driven by a peak in incidence at around 38 yr of age. There were considerable variations in prevalence and incidence between regions and countries. Policy makers need to be aware of a predictable increasing burden of SP due to the growing world population associated with an increasing life expectancy and a significant decrease in the prevalence of total tooth loss throughout the world from 1990 to 2010.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS

To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.