Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth's forests

Functional traits and drought strategy predict leaf thermal tolerance

Heat stress imposes an important physiological constraint on native plant species-one that will only worsen with human-caused climate change. Indeed, rising temperatures have already contributed to large-scale plant mortality events across the globe. These impacts may be especially severe in cities, where the urban heat island effect amplifies climate warming. Understanding how plant species will respond physiologically to rising temperatures and how these responses differ among plant functional groups is critical for predicting future biodiversity scenarios and making informed land management decisions. In this study, we evaluated the effects of elevated temperatures on a functionally and taxonomically diverse group of woody native plant species in a restored urban nature preserve in southern California using measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence as an indicator of leaf thermotolerance. Our aim was to determine if species' traits and drought strategies could serve as useful predictors of thermotolerance. We found that leaf thermotolerance differed among species with contrasting drought strategies, and several leaf-level functional traits were significant predictors of thermotolerance thresholds. Drought deciduous species with high specific leaf area, high rates of transpiration and low water use efficiency were the most susceptible to heat damage, while evergreen species with sclerophyllous leaves, high relative water content and high water use efficiency maintained photosynthetic function at higher temperatures. While these native shrubs and trees are physiologically equipped to withstand relatively high temperatures in this Mediterranean-type climate, hotter conditions imposed by climate change and urbanization may exceed the tolerance thresholds of many species. We show that leaf functional traits and plant drought strategies may serve as useful indicators of species' vulnerabilities to climate change, and this information can be used to guide restoration and conservation in a warmer world.

Decoupling between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis occurs under extreme heat in broadleaf tree species regardless of water access

High air temperatures increase atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the severity of drought, threatening forests worldwide. Plants regulate stomata to maximize carbon gain and minimize water loss, resulting in a close coupling between net photosynthesis (Anet ) and stomatal conductance (gs ). However, evidence for decoupling of gs from Anet under extreme heat has been found. Such a response both enhances survival of leaves during heat events but also quickly depletes available water. To understand the prevalence and significance of this decoupling, we measured leaf gas exchange in 26 tree and shrub species growing in the glasshouse or at an urban site in Sydney, Australia on hot days (maximum Tair  > 40°C). We hypothesized that on hot days plants with ample water access would exhibit reduced Anet and use transpirational cooling leading to stomatal decoupling, whereas plants with limited water access would rely on other mechanisms to avoid lethal temperatures. Instead, evidence for stomatal decoupling was found regardless of plant water access. Transpiration of well-watered plants was 23% higher than model predictions during heatwaves, which effectively cooled leaves below air temperature. For hotter, droughted plants, the increase in transpiration during heatwaves was even more pronounced-gs was 77% higher than model predictions. Stomatal decoupling was found for most broadleaf evergreen and broadleaf deciduous species at the urban site, including some wilted trees with limited water access. Decoupling may simply be a passive consequence of the physical effects of high temperature on plant leaves through increased cuticular conductance of water vapor, or stomatal decoupling may be an adaptive response that is actively regulated by stomatal opening under high temperatures. This temperature response is not yet included in any land surface model, suggesting that model predictions of evapotranspiration may be underpredicted at high temperature and high VPD.

Vapour pressure deficit modulates hydraulic function and structure of tropical rainforests under nonlimiting soil water supply

Atmospheric conditions are expected to become warmer and drier in the future, but little is known about how evaporative demand influences forest structure and function independently from soil moisture availability, and how fast-response variables (such as canopy water potential and stomatal conductance) may mediate longer-term changes in forest structure and function in response to climate change. We used two tropical rainforest sites with different temperatures and vapour pressure deficits (VPD), but nonlimiting soil water supply, to assess the impact of evaporative demand on ecophysiological function and forest structure. Common species between sites allowed us to test the extent to which species composition, relative abundance and intraspecific variability contributed to site-level differences. The highest VPD site had lower midday canopy water potentials, canopy conductance (gc ), annual transpiration, forest stature, and biomass, while the transpiration rate was less sensitive to changes in VPD; it also had different height-diameter allometry (accounting for 51% of the difference in biomass between sites) and higher plot-level wood density. Our findings suggest that increases in VPD, even in the absence of soil water limitation, influence fast-response variables, such as canopy water potentials and gc , potentially leading to longer-term changes in forest stature resulting in reductions in biomass.

Increasing atmospheric dryness reduces boreal forest tree growth

Rising atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) associated with climate change affects boreal forest growth via stomatal closure and soil dryness. However, the relationship between VPD and forest growth depends on the climatic context. Here we assess Canadian boreal forest responses to VPD changes from 1951-2018 using a well-replicated tree-growth increment network with approximately 5,000 species-site combinations. Of the 3,559 successful growth models, we observed a relationship between growth and concurrent summer VPD in one-third of the species-site combinations, and between growth and prior summer VPD in almost half of those combinations. The relationship between previous year VPD and current year growth was almost exclusively negative, while current year VPD also tended to reduce growth. Tree species, age, annual temperature, and soil moisture primarily determined tree VPD responses. Younger trees and species like white spruce and Douglas fir exhibited higher VPD sensitivity, as did areas with high annual temperature and low soil moisture. Since 1951, summer VPD increases in Canada have paralleled tree growth decreases, particularly in spruce species. Accelerating atmospheric dryness in the decades ahead will impair carbon storage and societal-economic services.

Fading regulation of diurnal temperature ranges on drought-induced growth loss for drought-tolerant tree species

Warming-induced droughts caused tree growth loss across the globe, leading to substantial carbon loss to the atmosphere. Drought-induced growth loss, however, can be regulated by changes in diurnal temperature ranges. Here, we investigated long term radial growth responses of 23 widespread distributed tree species from 2327 sites over the world and found that species' drought tolerances were significantly and positively correlated with diurnal temperature range-growth loss relationships for the period 1901-1940. Since 1940, this relationship has continued to fade, likely due to asymmetric day and night warming trends and the species' ability to deal with them. The alleviation of reduced diurnal temperature ranges on drought-induced growth loss was mainly found for drought resistant tree species. Overall, our results highlight the need to carefully consider diurnal temperature ranges and species-specific responses to daytime and nighttime warming to explore tree growth responses to current and future warmer and drier climates.

Climate change impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand: a horizon scan approach

Many of the implications of climate change for Aotearoa (New Zealand) remain unclear. To identify so-far unseen or understudied threats and opportunities related to climate change we applied a horizon-scanning process. First, we collated 171 threats and opportunities across our diverse fields of research. We then scored each item for novelty and potential impact and finally reduced the list to ten threats and ten opportunities through a prioritisation process. Within the 20 items presented in this paper, we uncover a range of climate-related costs and benefits. Unexpected opportunities evolve from economic reorganisation and changes to perspectives. The threats we highlight include the overall failure to interconnect siloed policy responses, as well as those relating to extreme events and feedbacks, as well as pressures that undermine the coherence of society. A major theme of our work is that climate change effects in Aotearoa are likely to transgress the boundaries of research disciplines, industry sectors and policy systems, emphasising the importance of developing transdisciplinary methods and approaches. We use this insight to connect potential responses to climate change with Aotearoa's culture and geography.

Key hydraulic traits control the dynamics of plant dehydration in four contrasting tree species during drought

Trees are at risk of mortality during extreme drought, yet our understanding of the traits that govern the timing of drought-induced hydraulic failure remains limited. To address this, we tested SurEau, a trait-based soil-plant-atmosphere model designed to predict the dynamics of plant dehydration as represented by the changes in water potential against those observed in potted trees of four contrasting species (Pinus halepensis Mill., Populus nigra L., Quercus ilex L. and Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) Manetti ex Carriére) exposed to drought. SurEau was parameterized with a range of plant hydraulic and allometric traits, soil and climatic variables. We found a close correspondence between the predicted and observed plant water potential (in MPa) dynamics during the early phase drought, leading to stomatal closure, as well as during the latter phase of drought, leading to hydraulic failure in all four species. A global model's sensitivity analysis revealed that, for a common plant size (leaf area) and soil volume, dehydration time from full hydration to stomatal closure (Tclose) was most strongly controlled by the leaf osmotic potential (Pi0) and its influence on stomatal closure, in all four species, while the maximum stomatal conductance (gsmax) also contributed to Tclose in Q. ilex and C. atlantica. Dehydration times from stomatal closure to hydraulic failure (Tcav) was most strongly controlled by Pi0, the branch residual conductance (gres) and Q10a sensitivity of gres in the three evergreen species, while xylem embolism resistance (P50) was most influential in the deciduous species P. nigra. Our findings point to SurEau as a highly useful model for predicting changes in plant water status during drought and suggest that adjustments made in key hydraulic traits are potentially beneficial to delaying the onset of drought-induced hydraulic failure in trees.

Increased hydraulic risk in assemblages of woody plant species predicts spatial patterns of drought-induced mortality

Predicting drought-induced mortality (DIM) of woody plants remains a key research challenge under climate change. Here, we integrate information on the edaphoclimatic niches, phylogeny and hydraulic traits of species to model the hydraulic risk of woody plants globally. We combine these models with species distribution records to estimate the hydraulic risk faced by local woody plant species assemblages. Thus, we produce global maps of hydraulic risk and test for its relationship with observed DIM. Our results show that local assemblages modelled as having higher hydraulic risk present a higher probability of DIM. Metrics characterizing this hydraulic risk improve DIM predictions globally, relative to models accounting only for edaphoclimatic predictors or broad functional groupings. The methodology we present here allows mapping of functional trait distributions and elucidation of global macro-evolutionary and biogeographical patterns, improving our ability to predict potential global change impacts on vegetation.

Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.

Plant physiological indicators for optimizing conservation outcomes

Plant species of concern often occupy narrow habitat ranges, making climate change an outsized potential threat to their conservation and restoration. Understanding the physiological status of a species during stress has the potential to elucidate current risk and provide an outlook on population maintenance. However, the physiological status of a plant can be difficult to interpret without a reference point, such as the capacity to tolerate stress before loss of function, or mortality. We address the application of plant physiology to conservation biology by distinguishing between two physiological approaches that together determine plant status in relation to environmental conditions and evaluate the capacity to avoid stress-induced loss of function. Plant physiological status indices, such as instantaneous rates of photosynthetic gas exchange, describe the level of physiological activity in the plant and are indicative of physiological health. When such measurements are combined with a reference point that reflects the maximum value or environmental limits of a parameter, such as the temperature at which photosynthesis begins to decline due to high temperature stress, we can better diagnose the proximity to potentially damaging thresholds. Here, we review a collection of useful plant status and reference point measurements related to photosynthesis, water relations and mineral nutrition, which can contribute to plant conservation physiology. We propose that these measurements can serve as important additional information to more commonly used phenological and morphological parameters, as the proposed parameters will reveal early warning signals before they are visible. We discuss their implications in the context of changing temperature, water and nutrient supply.

Reforestation of high elevation pines: Direct seeding success depends on seed source and sowing environment

Forest persistence in regions impacted by increasing water and temperature stress will depend upon species' ability to either rapidly adjust to novel conditions or migrate to track ecological niches. Predicted, rapid climate change is likely to outpace the adaptive and migratory capacity of long-lived isolated tree species, and reforestation may be critical to species' persistence. Facilitating persistence both within and beyond a species' range requires identification of seed lots best adapted to the current and future conditions predicted with rapid climate change. We evaluate variation in emergent seedling performance that leads to differential survival among species and populations for three high elevation five-needle pines. We paired a fully reciprocal field common garden experiment with a greenhouse common garden study to (1) quantify variation in seedling emergence and functional traits, (2) ask how functional traits affect performance under different establishment conditions, and (3) evaluate whether trait and performance variation demonstrates local adaptation and plasticity. Among study species-limber, Great Basin bristlecone, and whitebark pines-we found divergence in emergence and functional traits, though soil moisture was the strongest driver of seedling emergence and abundance across all species. Generalist limber pine had a clear emergence advantage as well as traits associated with drought adaptation, while edaphic specialist bristlecone pine was characterized by low emergence yet high early survival once established. Despite evidence for edaphic specialization, soil characteristics alone did not explain bristlecone success. Across species, trait-environment relationships provided some evidence for local adaptation in drought-adapted traits, but we found no evidence of local adaptation in emergence or survival at this early life stage. For managers looking to promote persistence, sourcing seed from drier environments is likely to impart greater drought resistance into reforestation efforts through strategies such as greater root investment, increasing the probability of early seedling survival. This research demonstrates, through a rigorous reciprocal transplant experimental design, that it may be possible to select climate- and soil-appropriate seed sources for reforestation. However, planting success will ultimately rely on a suitable establishment environment, requiring careful consideration of interannual climate variability for management interventions in these climate and disturbance-impacted tree species.

Declining tree growth resilience mediates subsequent forest mortality in the US Mountain West

Climate change-triggered forest die-off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of stand-level mortality. Here, we use an extensive tree-ring dataset collected at ~3000 permanent forest inventory plots, spanning 13 dominant species across the US Mountain West, where forests have experienced strong drought and extensive die-off has been observed in the past two decades, to test the hypothesis that tree growth resilience to drought can explain and improve predictions of observed stand-level mortality. We found substantial increases in growth variability and temporal autocorrelation as well declining drought resistance and resilience for a number of species over the second half of the 20th century. Declining resilience and low tree growth were strongly associated with cross- and within-species patterns of mortality. Resilience metrics had similar explicative power compared to climate and stand structure, but the covariance structure among predictors implied that the effect of tree resilience on mortality could partially be explained by stand and climate variables. We conclude that tree growth resilience offers highly valuable insights on tree physiology by integrating the effect of stressors on forest mortality but may have only moderate potential to improve large-scale projections of forest die-off under climate change.

Industrial fisheries have reversed the carbon sequestration by tuna carcasses into emissions

To limit climate warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels, most economic sectors will need a rapid transformation toward a net zero emission of CO2 . Tuna fisheries is a key food production sector that burns fossil fuel to operate but also reduces the deadfall of large-bodied fish so the capacity of this natural carbon pump to deep sea. Yet, the carbon balance of tuna populations, so the net difference between CO2 emission due to industrial exploitation and CO2 sequestration by fish deadfall after natural mortality, is still unknown. Here, by considering the dynamics of two main contrasting tuna species (Katsuwonus pelamis and Thunnus obesus) across the Pacific since the 1980s, we show that most tuna populations became CO2 sources instead of remaining natural sinks. Without considering the supply chain, the main factors associated with this shift are exploitation rate, transshipment intensity, fuel consumption, and climate change. Our study urges for a better global ocean stewardship, by curbing subsidies and limiting transshipment in remote international waters, to quickly rebuild most pelagic fish stocks above their target management reference points and reactivate a neglected carbon pump toward the deep sea as an additional Nature Climate Solution in our portfolio. Even if this potential carbon sequestration by surface unit may appear low compared to that of coastal ecosystems or tropical forests, the ocean covers a vast area and the sinking biomass of dead vertebrates can sequester carbon for around 1000 years in the deep sea. We also highlight the multiple co-benefits and trade-offs from engaging the industrial fisheries sector with carbon neutrality.

The energy-water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co-occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12-9.51°C; estimated using fall-spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ13 C) and nitrogen (δ15 N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co-occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy- and water-limited tree growth (i.e., the E-W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth-defense trade-offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy-limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water-limited regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.

Riparian forest response to extreme drought is influenced by climatic context and canopy structure

Droughts significantly impact forest ecosystems, reducing forest health and productivity, compromising ecosystem functioning, and nature-based solutions for climate change. The response and resilience of riparian forests to drought are poorly understood despite their key role in the functioning of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Here we investigate riparian forest drought responses and resilience to an extreme drought event at a regional scale. We also examine how drought event characteristics, average climate conditions, topography, soil, vegetation structure, and functional diversity shape the resilience of riparian forests to drought. We used a time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) to calculate the resistance to and recovery after an extreme drought (2017-2018) in 49 sites across an Atlantic-Mediterranean climate gradient in North Portugal. We used generalized additive models and multi-model inference to understand which factors best explained drought responses. We found a trade-off between drought resistance and recovery (maximum r = -0.5) and contrasting strategies across the climatic gradient of the study area. Riparian forests in the Atlantic regions showed comparatively higher resistance, while Mediterranean forests recovered more. Canopy structure and climate context were the most relevant predictors of resistance and recovery. However, median NDVI and NDWI had not returned to pre-drought levels (Rc_NDWI mean = 1.21, Rc_NDVI mean = 1.01) three years after the event. Our study shows that riparian forests have contrasting drought response strategies and may be susceptible to extended legacy effects associated with extreme and/or recurring droughts, similarly to upland forests. This work highlights the drought vulnerability of riparian ecosystems and emphasises the need for further studies on long-term resilience to droughts.

Abundance of Dendroctonus frontalis and D. mexicanus (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) along altitudinal transects in Mexico: Implications of climatic change for forest conservation

Bark beetle infestations have historically been primary drivers of stand thinning in Mexican pine forests. However, bark beetle impacts have become increasingly extensive and intense, apparently associated with climate change. Our objective was to describe the possible association between abundance of bark beetle flying populations and the occurrence of given value intervals of temperature, precipitation and their balance, in order to have a better comprehension of the climatic space that might trigger larger insect abundances, an issue relevant in the context of the ongoing climatic change. Here, we monitored the abundance of two of the most important bark beetle species in Mexico, Dendroctonus frontalis and D. mexicanus. We sampled 147 sites using pheromone-baited funnel traps along 24 altitudinal transects in 11 Mexican states, from northwestern Chihuahua to southeastern Chiapas, from 2015 to 2017. Through mixed model analysis, we found that the optimum Mean Annual Temperatures were 17°C-20°C for D. frontalis in low-elevation pine-oak forest, while D. mexicanus had two optimal intervals: 11-13°C and 15-18°C. Higher atmospheric Vapor Pressure Deficit (≥ 1.0) was correlated with higher D. frontalis abundances, indicating that warming-amplified drought stress intensifies trees' vulnerability to beetle attack. As temperatures and drought stress increase further with projected future climatic changes, it is likely that these Dendroctonus species will increase tree damage at higher elevations. Pine forests in Mexico are an important source of livelihood for communities inhabiting those areas, so providing tools to tackle obstacles to forest growth and health posed by changing climate is imperative.

A comprehensive resilience assessment of Mexican tree species and their relationship with drought events over the last century

The resilience of forests to drought events has become a major natural resource sustainability concern, especially in response to climate change. Yet, little is known about the legacy effects of repeated droughts, and tree species ability to respond across environmental gradients. In this study, we used a tree-ring database (121 sites) to evaluate the overall resilience of tree species to drought events in the last century. We investigated how climate and geography affected the response at the species level. We evaluated temporal trends of resilience using a predictive mixed linear modeling approach. We found that pointer years (e.g., tree growth reduction) occurred during 11.3% of the 20th century, with an average decrease in tree growth of 66% compared to the previous period. The occurrence of pointer years was associated with negative values of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, 81.6%) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, 77.3%). Tree species differed in their resilience capacity, however, species inhabiting xeric conditions were less resistant but with higher recovery rates (e.g., Abies concolor, Pinus lambertiana, and Pinus jeffreyi). On average, tree species needed 2.7 years to recover from drought events, with extreme cases requiring more than a decade to reach pre-drought tree growth rates. The main abiotic factor related to resilience was precipitation, confirming that some tree species are better adapted to resist the effects of droughts. We found a temporal variation for all tree resilience indices (scaled to 100), with a decreasing resistance (-0.56 by decade) and resilience (-0.22 by decade), but with a higher recovery (+1.72 by decade) and relative resilience rate (+0.33 by decade). Our results emphasize the importance of time series of forest resilience, particularly by distinguishing the species-level response in the context of legacy of droughts, which are likely to become more frequent and intense under a changing climate.

Population decline in a Pleistocene refugium: Stepwise, drought-related dieback of a South Australian eucalypt

Refugia can facilitate the persistence of species under long-term environmental change, but it is not clear if Pleistocene refugia will remain functional as anthropogenic climate change progresses. Dieback in populations restricted to refugia therefore raises concerns about their long-term persistence. Using repeat field surveys, we investigate dieback in an isolated population of Eucalyptus macrorhyncha during two droughts and discuss prospects for its continued persistence in a Pleistocene refugium. We first confirm that the Clare Valley in South Australia has constituted a long-term refugium for the species, with the population being genetically highly distinct from other conspecific populations. However, the population lost >40 % of individuals and biomass through the droughts, with mortality being just below 20 % after the Millennium Drought (2000-2009) and almost 25 % after the Big Dry (2017-2019). The best predictors of mortality differed after each drought. While north-facing aspect of a sampling location was significant positive predictor after both droughts, biomass density and slope were significant negative predictors only after the Millennium Drought, and distance to the north-west corner of the population, which intercepts hot, dry winds, was a significant positive predictor after the Big Dry only. This suggests that more marginal sites with low biomass and sites located on flat plateaus were more vulnerable initially, but that heat-stress was an important driver of dieback during the Big Dry. Therefore, the causative drivers of dieback may change during population decline. Regeneration occurred predominantly on southern and eastern aspects, which would receive the least solar radiation. While this refugial population is experiencing severe decline, some gullies with lower solar radiation appear to support relatively healthy, regenerating stands of red stringybark, providing hope for persistence in small pockets. Monitoring and managing these pockets during future droughts will be essential to ensure the persistence of this isolated and genetically unique population.

Reassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests

Larch, a widely distributed tree in boreal Eurasia, is experiencing rapid warming across much of its distribution. A comprehensive assessment of growth on warming is needed to comprehend the potential impact of climate change. Most studies, relying on rigid calendar-based temperature series, have detected monotonic responses at the margins of boreal Eurasia, but not across the region. Here, we developed a method for constructing temporally flexible and physiologically relevant temperature series to reassess growth-temperature relations of larch across boreal Eurasia. Our method appears more effective in assessing the impact of warming on growth than previous methods. Our approach indicates widespread and spatially heterogeneous growth-temperature responses that are driven by local climate. Models quantifying these results project that the negative responses of growth to temperature will spread northward and upward throughout this century. If true, the risks of warming to boreal Eurasia could be more widespread than conveyed from previous works.

Daytime stomatal regulation in mature temperate trees prioritizes stem rehydration at night

Trees remain sufficiently hydrated during drought by closing stomata and reducing canopy conductance (G_c ) in response to variations in atmospheric water demand and soil water availability. Thresholds that control the reduction of G_c are proposed to optimize hydraulic safety against carbon assimilation efficiency. However, the link between G_c and the ability of stem tissues to rehydrate at night remains unclear. We investigated whether species-specific G_c responses aim to prevent branch embolisms, or enable night-time stem rehydration, which is critical for turgor-dependent growth. For this, we used a unique combination of concurrent dendrometer, sap flow and leaf water potential measurements and collected branch-vulnerability curves of six common European tree species. Species-specific G_c reduction was weakly related to the water potentials at which 50% of branch xylem conductivity is lost (P₅₀ ). Instead, we found a stronger relationship with stem rehydration. Species with a stronger G_c control were less effective at refilling stem-water storage as the soil dries, which appeared related to their xylem architecture. Our findings highlight the importance of stem rehydration for water-use regulation in mature trees, which likely relates to the maintenance of adequate stem turgor. We thus conclude that stem rehydration must complement the widely accepted safety-efficiency stomatal control paradigm.

Aridity-dependent sequence of water potentials for stomatal closure and hydraulic dysfunctions in woody plants

The sequence of physiological events during drought strongly impacts plants' overall performance. Here, we synthesized the global data of stomatal and hydraulic traits in leaves and stems of 202 woody species to evaluate variations in the water potentials for key physiological events and their sequence along the climatic gradient. We found that the seasonal minimum water potential, turgor loss point, stomatal closure point, and leaf and stem xylem vulnerability to embolism were intercorrelated and decreased with aridity, indicating that water stress drives trait co-selection. In xeric regions, the seasonal minimum water potential occurred at lower water potential than turgor loss point, and the subsequent stomatal closure delayed embolism formation. In mesic regions, however, the seasonal minimum water potential did not pose a threat to the physiological functions, and stomatal closure occurred even at slightly more negative water potential than embolism. Our study demonstrates that the sequence of water potentials for physiological dysfunctions of woody plants varies with aridity, that is, xeric species adopt a more conservative sequence to prevent severe tissue damage through tighter stomatal regulation (isohydric strategy) and higher embolism resistance, while mesic species adopt a riskier sequence via looser stomatal regulation (anisohydric strategy) to maximize carbon uptake at the cost of hydraulic safety. Integrating both aridity-dependent sequence of water potentials for physiological dysfunctions and gap between these key traits into the hydraulic framework of process-based vegetation models would improve the prediction of woody plants' responses to drought under global climate change.

Study of the mechanism of embolism removal in xylem vessels by using microfluidic devices

Determining the mechanism that effects embolism repair in the xylem vessels of plants is of great significance in predicting plant distribution and the screening of drought-resistant plants. However, the mechanism of perforation plates of xylem vessels in the acceleration of embolism repair is still not clear by using conventional methods of anatomy and visualization technology. Microfluidic devices have shown their ability to simulate physiological environments and conduct quantitative experiments. This work proposes a biomimetic microfluidic device to study the mechanism of perforation plates of xylem vessels in the acceleration of embolism repair. The results proffered that the perforation plates increase the rate of embolism removal by increasing the pressure differential through the vessel, and the rate of embolism removal is related to the structural parameters of the perforation plate. A combination of the perforation size, the vessel diameter and the perforation plate angle can be optimised to generate higher pressure differentials, which can accelerate the process of embolism repair. This work provides a new method for studying the mechanism of microstructures of natural plants. Furthermore, the mechanism that perforation plates accelerate embolism repair was applied to an electrochemical flow sensor for online determination of heavy metal ions. Test results of this application indicate that the mechanism can be applied in the engineering field to solve the problems of reduced sensitivity of devices, inaccuracy of analysis results and poor reaction performance caused by bubbles that are generated or introduced easily in microdevices, which paves the way for applying the theory to engineering.

Long-term projection of future climate change over the twenty-first century in the Sahara region in Africa under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways scenarios

Climate change affects air quality and people's health. Therefore, accurate prediction of future climate change is of great significance for human beings to better adapt and mitigate climate change. Using the projection simulation dataset of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, the future climate change in the Sahara region under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) is analyzed. The results show that annual and seasonal average surface air temperature in the Sahara region will continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century relative to the baseline period 1995-2014 if greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue increasing. Under the four SSPs scenarios, the warming in the Sahara region will be more pronounced than in the whole world through the twenty-first century. The annual maximum temperature (TX), the annual minimum temperature (TN), the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 35 °C (TX 35), and the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 40 °C (TX 40) in the Sahara region will continue to increase until the end of the twenty-first century under the four scenarios. The results of climate change prediction can provide scientific reference for climate policy-making.

Consistent responses to moisture stress despite diverse growth forms within mountain fynbos communities

Understanding climate change impacts on the Cape Floristic Region requires improved knowledge of plant physiological responses to the environment. Studies examining physiological responses of mountain fynbos have consisted of campaign-based measurements, capturing snapshots of plant water relations and photosynthesis. We examine conclusions drawn from prior studies by tracking in situ physiological responses of three species, representing dominant growth forms (proteoid, ericoid, restioid), over 2 years using miniature continuous sap flow technology, long-term observations of leaf/culm water potential and gas exchange, and xylem vulnerability to embolism. We observed considerable inter-specific variation in the timing and extent of seasonal declines in productivity. Shallow-rooted Erica monsoniana exhibited steep within-season declines in sap flow and water potentials, and pronounced inter-annual variability in total daily sap flux (J_s). Protea repens showed steady reductions in J_s across both years, despite deeper roots and less negative water potentials. Cannomois congesta-a shallow-rooted restioid-was least negatively impacted. Following rehydrating rain at the end of summer, gas exchange recovery was lower in the drier year compared with the normal year, but did not differ between species. Loss of function in the drier year was partially accounted for by loss of xylem transport capacity in Erica and Cannomois, but not Protea. Hitherto unseen water use patterns, including inter-annual variability of gas exchange associated with contrasting water uptake properties, reveal that species use different mechanisms to cope with summer dry periods. Revealing physiological responses of key growth forms enhances predictions of plant function within mountain fynbos under future conditions.

Plant hydraulic modelling of leaf and canopy fuel moisture content reveals increasing vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest to wildfires under extreme drought

Fuel moisture content (FMC) is a crucial driver of forest fires in many regions world-wide. Yet, the dynamics of FMC in forest canopies as well as their physiological and environmental determinants remain poorly understood, especially under extreme drought. We embedded a FMC module in the trait-based, plant-hydraulic SurEau-Ecos model to provide innovative process-based predictions of leaf live fuel moisture content (LFMC) and canopy fuel moisture content (CFMC) based on leaf water potential ( ψ Leaf ). SurEau-Ecos-FMC relies on pressure-volume (p-v) curves to simulate LFMC and vulnerability curves to cavitation to simulate foliage mortality. SurEau-Ecos-FMC accurately reproduced ψ Leaf and LFMC dynamics as well as the occurrence of foliage mortality in a Mediterranean Quercus ilex forest. Several traits related to water use (leaf area index, available soil water, and transpiration regulation), vulnerability to cavitation, and p-v curves (full turgor osmotic potential) had the greatest influence on LFMC and CFMC dynamics. As the climate gets drier, our results showed that drought-induced foliage mortality is expected to increase, thereby significantly decreasing CFMC. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to understand and predict the sensitivity of forests to wildfires.

The synergistic effect of hydraulic and thermal impairments accounts for the severe crown damage in Fraxinus mandshurica seedlings following the combined drought-heatwave stress

Drought combined with extreme heatwaves has been increasingly identified as the important trigger of worldwide tree mortality in the context of climate change; nonetheless, our understanding of the potential hydraulic and thermal impairments of hot droughts to trees and the subsequent post-recovery process remains limited. To investigate the response of tree water and carbon relations to drought, heatwave, and combined drought-heatwave stresses, three-year-old potted seedlings of Fraxinus mandshurica Rupr., a dominant tree species in temperate forests of northeast China, were grown under well-watered and drought-stressed conditions and exposed to a rapid, acute heatwave treatment. During the heatwave treatment with a maximum temperature exceeding 40 °C for two days, the leaf temperature of drought-stressed seedlings was, on average, 5 °C higher than that of well-watered counterparts due to less effective evaporative cooling, indicating that soil water availability influenced leaf thermoregulatory capacity during hot extremes. Consistently, more pronounced crown damage, as shown by 13 % irreversible leaf scorch, was found in seedlings under the drought-heatwave treatment relative to sole heatwave treatment, alongside the more severe stem xylem embolism and leaf electrolyte leakage. While the heatwave treatment accelerated the depletion of non-structural carbohydrates in drought-stressed seedlings, the increase of branch soluble sugar concentration in response to heatwave might be related to the requirement for maintaining hydraulic functioning via osmoregulation under high dehydration risk. The coordination between leaf stomatal conductance and total non-structural carbohydrate content during the post-heatwave recovery phase implied that plant-water relations and carbon physiology were closely coupled in coping with hot droughts. This study highlights that, under scenarios of aggravating drought co-occurring with heatwaves, tree seedlings could face a high risk of crown decline in relation to the synergistically increased hydraulic and thermal impairments.

Burning questions for a warming and changing world: 15 unknowns in plant abiotic stress

We present unresolved questions in plant abiotic stress biology as posed by 15 research groups with expertise spanning eco-physiology to cell and molecular biology. Common themes of these questions include the need to better understand how plants detect water availability, temperature, salinity, and rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels; how environmental signals interface with endogenous signaling and development (e.g. circadian clock and flowering time); and how this integrated signaling controls downstream responses (e.g. stomatal regulation, proline metabolism, and growth versus defense balance). The plasma membrane comes up frequently as a site of key signaling and transport events (e.g. mechanosensing and lipid-derived signaling, aquaporins). Adaptation to water extremes and rising CO2 affects hydraulic architecture and transpiration, as well as root and shoot growth and morphology, in ways not fully understood. Environmental adaptation involves tradeoffs that limit ecological distribution and crop resilience in the face of changing and increasingly unpredictable environments. Exploration of plant diversity within and among species can help us know which of these tradeoffs represent fundamental limits and which ones can be circumvented by bringing new trait combinations together. Better defining what constitutes beneficial stress resistance in different contexts and making connections between genes and phenotypes, and between laboratory and field observations, are overarching challenges.

Root water uptake depth determines the hydraulic vulnerability of temperate European tree species during the extreme 2018 drought

We took advantage of the European 2018 drought and assessed the mechanisms causing differences in drought vulnerability among mature individuals of nine co-occurring tree species at the Swiss Canopy Crane II site in Switzerland. Throughout the drought we monitored leaf water status and determined native embolism formation in the canopy of the trees as indicators of drought vulnerability. We also determined hydraulic vulnerability thresholds (Ψ₁₂ -, Ψ₅₀ - and Ψ₈₈ -values), corresponding hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) and carbohydrate reserves for all species as well as total average leaf area per tree, and used stable isotopes to assess differences in root water uptake depth among the nine species as variables predicting differences in drought vulnerability among species. Marked differences in drought vulnerability were observed among the nine tree species. Six species maintained their water potentials above hydraulic thresholds, while three species, Fagus sylvatica, Carpinus betulus and Picea abies, were pushed beyond their hydraulic thresholds and showed loss of hydraulic conductivity in their canopies at the end of the drought. Embolism resistance thresholds and associated HSMs did not explain why the co-existing species differed in their drought vulnerability, neither did their degree of isohydry, nor their regulation of carbohydrate reserves. Instead, differences in structural-morphological traits, in particular root water uptake depth, were associated with the risk of reaching hydraulic vulnerability thresholds and embolism formation among the nine species. Our study shows that structural-morphological traits, such as root water uptake depth, determine how quickly different species approach hydraulic vulnerability thresholds during a drought event and can thus explain species differences in drought vulnerability among mature field-grown trees.

Crown dieback and mortality of urban trees linked to heatwaves during extreme drought

Cities have been described as 'heat islands' and 'dry islands' due to hotter, drier air in urban areas, relative to the surrounding landscape. As climate change intensifies, the health of urban trees will be increasingly impacted. Here, we posed the question: Is it possible to predict urban tree species mortality using (1) species climate envelopes and (2) plant functional traits? To answer these, we tracked patterns of crown dieback and recovery for 23 common urban tree and shrub species in Sydney, Australia during the record-breaking austral 2019-2020 summer. We identified 10 heat-tolerant species including five native and five exotic species, which represent climate-resilient options for urban plantings that are likely to continue to thrive for decades. Thirteen species were considered vulnerable to adverse conditions due to their mortality, poor health leading to tree removal, and/or extensive crown dieback. Crown dieback increased with increasing precipitation of the driest month of species climate of origin, suggesting that species from dry climates may be better suited for urban forests in future climates. We effectively grouped species according to their drought strategy (i.e., tolerance versus avoidance) using a simple trait-based framework that was directly linked with species mortality. The seven most climate-vulnerable species used a drought-avoidance strategy, having low wood density and high turgor loss points along with large, thin leaves with low heat tolerance. Overall, plant functional traits were better than species climate envelopes at explaining crown dieback. Recovery after stress required two mild, wet years for most species, resulting in prolonged loss of cooling benefits as well as economic losses due to replacement of dead/damaged trees. Hotter, longer, and more frequent heatwaves will require selection of more climate-resilient species in urban forests, and our results suggest that future research should focus on plant thermal traits to improve prediction models and species selection.

Linking leaf economic and hydraulic traits with early-age growth performance and survival of Eucalyptus pauciflora

Selection on plant functional traits may occur through their direct effects on fitness (or a fitness component), or may be mediated by attributes of plant performance which have a direct impact on fitness. Understanding this link is particularly challenging for long-lived organisms, such as forest trees, where lifetime fitness assessments are rarely achievable, and performance features and fitness components are usually quantified from early-life history stages. Accordingly, we studied a cohort of trees from multiple populations of Eucalyptus pauciflora grown in a common-garden field trial established at the hot and dry end of the species distribution on the island of Tasmania, Australia. We related the within-population variation in leaf economic (leaf thickness, leaf area and leaf density) and hydraulic (stomatal density, stomatal length and vein density) traits, measured from two-year-old plants, to two-year growth performance (height and stem diameter) and to a fitness component (seven-year survival). When performance-trait relationships were modelled for all traits simultaneously, statistical support for direct effects on growth performance was only observed for leaf thickness and leaf density. Performance-based estimators of directional selection indicated that individuals with reduced leaf thickness and increased leaf density were favoured. Survival-performance relationships were consistent with size-dependent mortality, with fitness-based selection gradients estimated for performance measures providing evidence for directional selection favouring individuals with faster growth. There was no statistical support for an effect associated with the fitness-based quadratic selection gradient estimated for growth performance. Conditional on a performance measure, fitness-based directional selection gradients estimated for the leaf traits did not provide statistical support for direct effects of the focal traits on tree survival. This suggested that, under the environmental conditions of the trial site and time period covered in the current study, early-stage selection on the studied leaf traits may be mediated by their effects on growth performance, which in turn has a positive direct influence on later-age survival. We discuss the potential mechanistic basis of the direct effects of the focal leaf traits on tree growth, and the relevance of a putative causal pathway of trait effects on fitness through mediation by growth performance in the studied hot and dry environment.

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers.

Contrasting water-use patterns of Chinese fir among different plantation types in a subtropical region of China

Plantation cultivation plays an important role in improving terrestrial ecosystem functions and services. Understanding the water-use patterns of major afforestation species is vital for formulating ecological restoration strategies and predicting the response of plantation to climate change. However, the impacts and drivers of forest types on water-use patterns of key tree species are poorly understood. Here, the combined methods of dual stable isotope of δD and δ ¹⁸O and Bayesian mixed framework (MixSIAR) were employed to investigate the water-use patterns of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Chinese fir) in a monoculture, mixed forest with Cinnamomum camphora, and mixed forest with Alnus cremastogyne under different rainfall events in subtropical China. Furthermore, the relative contribution of different soil and plant factors to the water-use patterns of Chinese fir was quantified using a random forest model. Our results showed that Chinese fir in the mixed forests (with C. camphora or with A. cremastogyne) utilized less water from shallow soil compared to that in a monoculture but significantly improved the proportion of water absorbed from deep soil with the increase of 55.57%-64.90% and 68.99%-108.83% following moderate and heavy rainfall events, respectively. The most important factors contributing to the differences in water-use patterns of Chinese fir among monoculture and mixed forests were tree attributes (i.e., leaf biomass, eco-physiological regulation, and fine root biomass). These findings reveal that Chinese fir in mixed forests could optimize water-use patterns by adjusting plant properties for interspecific niche complementarity, improving the utilization of deep soil water. Overall, this study suggests that mixed-species plantations could improve water-use efficiency and reduce the sensitivity of tree species to precipitation change, indicating they are better able to cope with expected climate variability.

Holm oak decline is determined by shifts in fine root phenotypic plasticity in response to belowground stress

Climate change and pathogen outbreaks are the two major causes of decline in Mediterranean holm oak trees (Quercus ilex L. subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.). Crown-level changes in response to these stressful conditions have been widely documented but the responses of the root systems remain unexplored. The effects of environmental stress over roots and its potential role during the declining process need to be evaluated. We aimed to study how key morphological and architectural root parameters and nonstructural carbohydrates of roots are affected along a holm oak health gradient (i.e. within healthy, susceptible and declining trees). Holm oaks with different health statuses had different soil resource-uptake strategies. While healthy and susceptible trees showed a conservative resource-uptake strategy independently of soil nutrient availability, declining trees optimized soil resource acquisition by increasing the phenotypic plasticity of their fine root system. This increase in fine root phenotypic plasticity in declining holm oaks represents an energy-consuming strategy promoted to cope with the stress and at the expense of foliage maintenance. Our study describes a potential feedback loop resulting from strong unprecedented belowground stress that ultimately may lead to poor adaptation and tree death in the Spanish dehesa.

Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces

Background

In the projected climate change scenarios, assisted migration might play an important role in the ex situ conservation of the threatened plant species, by translocate them to similar suitable habitats outside their native distributions. However, it is unclear if such habitats will be available for the Rare Endemic Plant Species (REPS), because of their very restricted habitats. The aims of this study were to perform a population size assessment for the REPS Picea martinezii Patterson and Picea mexicana Martínez, and to evaluate the potential species distributions and their possibilities for assisted migration inside México and worldwide.

Methods

We performed demographic censuses, field surveys in search for new stands, and developed distribution models for Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago), Middle Holocene (6,000 years ago), current (1961-1990) and future (2050 and 2070) periods, for the whole Mexican territory (considering climatic, soil, geologic and topographic variables) and for all global land areas (based only on climate).

Results

Our censuses showed populations of 89,266 and 39,059 individuals for P. martinezii and P. mexicana, respectively, including known populations and new stands. Projections for México indicated somewhat larger suitable areas in the past, now restricted to the known populations and new stands, where they will disappear by 2050 in a pessimistic climatic scenario, and scarce marginal areas (p = 0.5-0.79) remaining only for P. martinezii by 2070. Worldwide projections (based only on climate variables) revealed few marginal areas in 2050 only in México for P. martinezii, and several large areas (p ≥ 0.5) for P. mexicana around the world (all outside México), especially on the Himalayas in India and the Chungyang mountains in Taiwan with highly suitable (p ≥ 0.8) climate habitats in current and future (2050) conditions. However, those suitable areas are currently inhabited by other endemic spruces: Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss and Picea morrisonicola Hayata, respectively.

Conclusions

Assisted migration would only be an option for P. martinezii on scarce marginal sites in México, and the possibilities for P. mexicana would be continental and transcontinental translocations. This rises two possible issues for future ex situ conservation programs: the first is related to whether or not consider assisted migration to marginal sites which do not cover the main habitat requirements for the species; the second is related to which species (the local or the foreign) should be prioritized for conservation when suitable habitat is found elsewhere but is inhabited by other endemic species. This highlights the necessity to discuss new policies, guidelines and mechanisms of international cooperation to deal with the expected high species extinction rates, linked to projected climate change.

Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. Here, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

Mutually inclusive mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality

Unprecedented tree dieback across Central Europe caused by recent global change-type drought events highlights the need for a better mechanistic understanding of drought-induced tree mortality. Although numerous physiological risk factors have been identified, the importance of two principal mechanisms, hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, is still debated. It further remains largely unresolved how the local neighborhood composition affects individual mortality risk. We studied 9435 young trees of 12 temperate species planted in a diversity experiment in 2013 to assess how hydraulic traits, carbon dynamics, pest infestation, tree height and neighborhood competition influence individual mortality risk. Following the most extreme global change-type drought since record in 2018, one third of these trees died. Across species, hydraulic safety margins (HSMs) were negatively and a shift towards a higher sugar fraction in the non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) pool positively associated with mortality risk. Moreover, trees infested by bark beetles had a higher mortality risk, and taller trees a lower mortality risk. Most neighborhood interactions were beneficial, although neighborhood effects were highly species-specific. Species that suffered more from drought, especially Larix spp. and Betula spp., tended to increase the survival probability of their neighbors and vice versa. While severe tissue dehydration marks the final stage of drought-induced tree mortality, we show that hydraulic failure is interrelated with a series of other, mutually inclusive processes. These include shifts in NSC pools driven by osmotic adjustment and/or starch depletion as well as pest infestation and are modulated by the size and species identity of a tree and its neighbors. A more holistic view that accounts for multiple causes of drought-induced tree mortality is required to improve predictions of trends in global forest dynamics and to identify mutually beneficial species combinations.