A composite metric for assessing data on mortality and causes of death: the vital statistics performance index

Quality of cause-of-death data in Brazil: Garbage codes among registered deaths in 2000 and 2015

INTRODUCTION

reliability of mortality data is essential for health assessment and planning. In Brazil, a high proportion of deaths is attributed to causes that should not be considered as underlying causes of deaths, named garbage codes (GC). To tackle this issue, in 2005, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) implements the investigation of GC-R codes (codes from chapter 18 "Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified, ICD-10") to improve the quality of cause-of-death data. This study analyzes the GC cause of death, considered as the indicator of data quality, in Brazil, regions, states and municipalities in 2000 and 2015.

METHODS

death records from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) were used. Analysis was performed for two GC groups: R codes and non-R codes, such as J18.0-J18.9 (Pneumonia unspecified). Crude and age-standardized rates, number of deaths and proportions were considered.

RESULTS

an overall improvement in the quality of mortality data in 2015 was detected, with variations among regions, age groups and size of municipalities. The improvement in the quality of mortality data in the Northeastern and Northern regions for GC-R codes is emphasized. Higher GC rates were observed among the older adults (60+ years old). The differences among the areas observed in 2015 were smaller.

CONCLUSION

the efforts of the MoH in implementing the investigation of GC-R codes have contributed to the progress of data quality. Investment is still necessary to improve the quality of cause-of-death statistics.

The global burden of urinary bladder cancer: an update

Bladder cancer is among the top ten most common cancer types in the world, with approximately 550,000 new cases annually. The highest burden of bladder cancer is currently falling on most developed communities across the globe. But with an anticipated shift in world demographics with growing and aging populations mainly on the African continent, and important shifts in exposure to different risk factors across the world, this is likely to change over the next decades. In this review, we provide an overview of the current incidence, mortality, prevalence, survival, risk factors and costs of bladder cancer worldwide.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Diabetes is associated with a higher risk of mortality among women in a middle-income country: Results form the Mexican Teacher's cohort study

AIMS

In Mexico City, the mortality rate among patients with diabetes appears to be four times that of people without diabetes. Our study aimed to refine analyses of the impact of diabetes on mortality in a large cohort of women from different areas in Mexico with healthcare insurance.

METHODS

Our study followed 111,299 women with comprehensive healthcare coverage from the Mexican Teachers' Cohort. After a median follow-up of 7.8years, 5514 (5%) prevalent self-reported diabetes cases and 4023 incident cases were identified, while deaths were identified through employers' databases and next-of-kin reports, with dates and causes of death for 1121 women obtained from mortality databases. Hazard ratios (HRs) for total and cause-specific mortality were estimated by Cox regression models, using follow-up time as the time scale and allowing for time-variable diabetes status after adjusting for age, socioeconomic status, use of health services, and anthropometric and lifestyle variables.

RESULTS

In multivariable-adjusted models, the HR for all-cause mortality was 3.28 (95% CI: 2.86-3.75) in women with vs. without diabetes. The impact of diabetes on mortality was higher in rural vs. urban areas (HR: 4.72 vs. 2.98, respectively). HRs were 1.57 and 23.44 for cancer and renal disease mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In women with healthcare coverage in Mexico, the magnitude of the association between diabetes and all-cause mortality was higher than that observed in high-income countries, but less than what has previously been reported for Mexico. Such elevated mortality suggests a lack of adequate access to quality diabetes care in the population despite comprehensive healthcare coverage.

Evaluation of approaches to strengthen civil registration and vital statistics systems: A systematic review and synthesis of policies in 25 countries

BACKGROUND

Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems play a key role in upholding human rights and generating data for health and good governance. They also can help monitor progress in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Although many countries have made substantial progress in strengthening their CRVS systems, most low- and middle-income countries still have underdeveloped systems. The objective of this systematic review is to identify national policies that can help countries strengthen their systems.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The ABI/INFORM, Embase, JSTOR, PubMed, and WHO Index Medicus databases were systematically searched for policies to improve birth and/or death registration on 24 January 2017. Global stakeholders were also contacted for relevant grey literature. For the purposes of this review, policies were categorised as supply, demand, incentive, penalty, or combination (i.e., at least two of the preceding policy approaches). Quantitative results on changes in vital event registration rates were presented for individual comparative articles. Qualitative systematic review methodology, including meta-ethnography, was used for qualitative syntheses on operational considerations encompassing acceptability to recipients and staff, human resource requirements, information technology or infrastructure requirements, costs to the health system, unintended effects, facilitators, and barriers. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018085768. Thirty-five articles documenting experience in implementing policies to improve birth and/or death registration were identified. Although 25 countries representing all global regions (Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean) were reflected, there were limited countries from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Twenty-four articles reported policy effects on birth and/or death registration. Twenty-one of the 24 articles found that the change in registration rate after the policy was positive, with two supply and one penalty articles being the exceptions. The qualitative syntheses identified 15 operational considerations across all policy categories. Human and financial resource requirements were not quantified. The primary limitation of this systematic review was the threat of publication bias wherein many countries may not have documented their experience; this threat is most concerning for policies that had neutral or negative effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic review suggests that combination policy approaches, consisting of at least a supply and demand component, were consistently associated with improved registration rates in different geographical contexts. Operational considerations should be interpreted based on health system, governance, and sociocultural context. More evaluations and research are needed from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Further research and evaluation are also needed to estimate the human and financial resource requirements required for different policies.

A gold mine, but still no Klondike: Nordic register data in health inequalities research

Aims: Future research on health inequality relies on data that cover life-course exposure, different birth cohorts and variation in policy contexts. Nordic register data have long been celebrated as a 'gold mine' for research, and fulfil many of these criteria. However, access to and use of such data are hampered by a number of hurdles and bottlenecks. We present and discuss the experiences of an ongoing Nordic consortium from the process of acquiring register data on socio-economic conditions and health in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Methods: We compare experiences of data-acquisition processes from a researcher's perspective in the four countries and discuss the comparability of register data and the modes of collaboration available to researchers, given the prevailing ethical and legal restrictions. Results: The application processes we experienced were time-consuming, and decision structures were often fragmented. We found substantial variation between the countries in terms of processing times, costs and the administrative burden of the researcher. Concerned agencies differed in policy and practice which influenced both how and when data were delivered. These discrepancies present a challenge to comparative research. Conclusions: We conclude that there are few signs of harmonisation, as called for by previous policy documents and research papers. Ethical vetting needs to be centralised both within and between countries in order to improve data access. Institutional factors that seem to facilitate access to register data at the national level include single storage environments for health and social data, simplified ethical vetting and user guidance.

Mortality following first-time hospitalization with acute myocardial infarction in Norway, 2001-2014: Time trends, underlying causes and place of death

BACKGROUND

Trends on cause-specific mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are poorly described and no studies have analyzed where do AMI patients die. We analyzed trends in 28-day and one-year mortality following an incident AMI with focus on changes over time in the underlying cause and place of death.

METHODS

We identified in the 'Cardiovascular Disease in Norway' Project all patients 25+ years, hospitalized with an incident AMI in Norway, 2001-2014. Information on date, underlying cause and place of death was obtained from the Cause of Death Registry.

RESULTS

Of 144,473 patients included in the study, 11.4% died within first 28 days. The adjusted 28-day mortality declined by 5.2% per year (p_trend < 0.001). Of 118,881 patients surviving first 28 days, 10.1% died within one year. The adjusted one-year CVD mortality declined by 6.2% per year (p_trend < 0.001) while non-CVD mortality increased by 1.4% per year (p_trend < 0.001), mainly influenced by increased risk of dying from neoplasms. We observed a shift over time in the underlying cause of death toward more non-CVD deaths, and in the place of death toward more deaths occurring in nursing homes.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a decline in 28-day mortality following an incident AMI hospitalization. One-year CVD mortality declined while one-year risk of dying from non-CVD conditions increased. The resulting shift toward more non-CVD deaths and deaths occurring outside a hospital need to be considered when formulating priorities in treating and preventing adverse events among AMI survivors.

Estimating cause-specific mortality in Madagascar: an evaluation of death notification data from the capital city

Background

Trends in cause-specific mortality in most African countries are currently estimated from epidemiological models because the coverage of the civil registration system is low and national statistics on causes of death are unreliable at the national level. We aim to evaluate the performance of the death notification system in Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, to inform cause-of-death statistics.

Methods

Information on the sex of the deceased, dates of birth and death, and underlying cause of death were transcribed from death registers maintained in Antananarivo. Causes of death were coded in ICD-9 and mapped to cause categories from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD). The performance of the notification system was assessed based on the Vital Statistics Performance Index, including six dimensions: completeness of death registration, quality of cause of death reporting, quality of age and sex reporting, internal consistency, level of cause-specific detail, and data availability and timeliness. We redistributed garbage codes and compared cause-specific mortality fractions in death records and estimates from the GBD with concordance correlation coefficients.

Results

The death notification system in Antananarivo performed well on most dimensions, although 31% of all deaths registered over the period 1976–2015 were assigned to ICD codes considered as “major garbage codes” in the GBD 2016. The completeness of death notification, estimated with indirect demographic techniques, was higher than 90% in the period 1975–1993, and recent under-five mortality rates were consistent with estimates from Demographic and Health Surveys referring to the capital city. After redistributing garbage codes, cause-specific mortality fractions derived from death notification data were consistent with GBD 2016 for the whole country in the 1990s, with concordance correlation coefficients higher than 90%. There were larger deviations in recent years, with concordance correlation coefficients in 2015 at 0.74 (95% CI 0.66–0.81) for men and 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.86) for women.

Conclusions

Death notification in Antananarivo is a low-cost data source allowing real-time mortality monitoring, with a potential to improve disease burden estimates. Further efforts should be directed towards evaluating data quality in urban centers in Madagascar and other African countries to fill important data gaps on causes of death.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-019-0190-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Analysis of causes of death using verbal autopsies and vital registration in Hidalgo, Mexico

INTRODUCTION

Verbal autopsy (VA) is a useful tool for evaluating causes of death, especially in places with limited or no vital registration systems. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) developed a validated questionnaire and a set of automated methods to determine the cause of death from a VA. However, the application of these methods needs to be tested in a community environment.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) using VAs and compare them against those obtained in the vital statistics of the state of Hidalgo, Mexico.

METHODS

A random sample of deaths occurred in 2009 was selected from vital statistics in the state of Hidalgo. The full PHMRC validated VA instrument was applied to the relatives of the deceased, and the cause of death was determined using Tariff's automated method. The causes of death were grouped into 34 causes for adults, 21 for children and 6 for newborns. Results were compared with cause of death on death certificates for all deaths.

RESULTS

A total of 1,198 VAs were analyzed. The Tariff method was not able to assign a cause of death in only 9% of adults, 2% of children and 7% of neonatal deaths. The CSMFs obtained from the Tariff method were similar in some cases to those of vital statistics (e.g. cirrhosis), but different in others (e.g. sepsis).

CONCLUSION

The application of VAs in a community sample, analyzed with the Tariff method, allowed assigning a cause of death to most of the cases, with results similar to those of vital statistics for most conditions. This tool can be useful to strengthen the quality of vital statistics.

Seasonal variation of mortality from external causes in Hungary between 1995 and 2014

Objective

To analyze trends in external mortality in Hungary between 1995 and 2014 by sex.

Methods

Data on the numbers of deaths due to external causes were obtained from the published nationwide population register. Negative binomial regression was applied to investigate the yearly trends in external-cause mortality rates. Cyclic trends were investigated using the Walter-Elwood method.

Results

Suicide and accidents accounted for approximately 84% of the all-external-cause of deaths in Hungary. Annual suicide, unintentional falls and traffic accidents mortality declined significantly (p-value for annual trend: p < 0.001) from 30.5 (95% CI: 29.5–31.5) to 15.8 (15.1–16.5), from 31.2 (30.2–32.2) to 12.2 (11.7–12.8) and from 17.2 (16.4–18) to 5.4 (5–5.8) per 100 000 persons per year, respectively, during the study period. A significant declining trend in annual mortality was also found for assault, cold/heating-related accidents and accidents caused by electric current. However, the declining trend for drowning-related accidents was significant only for males. Significant winter-peak seasonality was found in the mortality rates from accidental falls, cold/heat-related accidents, other accidents caused by submersion/obstruction and other causes. Seasonal trends with a peak from June to July were observed in death rates from suicide/self-harm, accidental drowning/submersion and accidents caused by electric current. A significant seasonal variation with a peak in September was revealed in the mortality due to traffic accidents.

Conclusions

This Hungarian study suggests that there was a significant seasonal effect on almost all kinds of deaths from external causes between 1995 and 2014. Environmental effects are involved in the aetiology of suicide and accidents.

Undiagnosed cardiovascular disease prior to cardiovascular death in individuals with severe mental illness

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether individuals with schizophrenia (SCZ) or bipolar disorder (BD) had equal likelihood of not being diagnosed with cardiovascular disease (CVD) prior to cardiovascular death, compared to individuals without SCZ or BD.

METHODS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis including nationwide data of 72 451 cardiovascular deaths in the years 2011-2016. Of these, 814 had a SCZ diagnosis and 673 a BD diagnosis in primary or specialist health care.

RESULTS

Individuals with SCZ were 66% more likely (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.39-1.98), women with BD were 38% more likely (adjusted OR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.04-1.82), and men with BD were equally likely (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.63-1.24) not to be diagnosed with CVD prior to cardiovascular death, compared to individuals without SMI. Almost all (98%) individuals with SMI and undiagnosed CVD had visited primary or specialized somatic health care prior to death, compared to 88% among the other individuals who died of CVD.

CONCLUSION

Individuals with SCZ and women with BD are more likely to die due to undiagnosed CVD, despite increased risk of CVD and many contacts with primary and specialized somatic care. Strengthened efforts to prevent, recognize, and treat CVD in individuals with SMI from young age are needed.

Reliable mortality statistics in Myanmar: a qualitative assessment of challenges in two townships

Background

The vital registration system is universally recognized as the main source of mortality data which is essential for policy formulation, proper interventions and resource allocation to address priority health challenges. To improve availability and quality of mortality statistics by strengthening the vital registration system, understanding the current vital registration system is essential. This study identified challenges in generating reliable mortality statistics in the vital registration system of Myanmar.

Methods

Qualitative methods were used to collect data in two selected townships of Mandalay Region. Grey literature related to the management of mortality registration was reviewed; in-depth interviews of sixteen key informants and fourteen focus group discussions were conducted with those involved in death registration at the local level, such as healthcare providers, local administrators and knowledgeable adults in households where deaths occurred during the past three years. Thematic analysis was performed to identify system barriers in the death registration process.

Results

Weaknesses in the death registration system are classified in three areas: a) administrative which includes the lack of enforcement of mandatory death registration, limited issuance of death certificates and no formal mandatory notification of death events by households and; b) technical which includes absence of proper and regular on-the-job trainings, ineffective cause-of-death certification practice for deaths in the communities and the absence of routine data plausibility checks at the local level; and c) societal which includes poor community awareness and inadequate participation in death registration.

Conclusion

The study highlighted challenges in the death registration system at the operational level, which undermines the achievement of a satisfactory level of completeness and accuracy of mortality data. We recommend establishing a strong legal framework, improving technical capacities and raising public awareness and cooperation to strengthen the system that can generate reliable mortality statistics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6671-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluation of the mortality registry in Ecuador (2001-2013) - social and geographical inequalities in completeness and quality

Background

Mortality registries are an essential data source for public health surveillance and for planning and evaluating public policy. Nevertheless, there are still large inequalities in the completeness and quality of mortality registries between and within countries. In Ecuador, there have been few nationwide evaluations of the mortality registry and no evaluations of inequalities between provinces. This kind of analysis is fundamental for strengthening the vital statistics system.

Methods

Ecological study assessing the completeness, quality and internal consistency of mortality data in the provinces of Ecuador, using 13 years of mortality data (2001–2013). Completeness was assessed using three types of death distribution methods (DDMs), quality by estimating the percentages of garbage codes and deaths with unspecified age or sex in the registered deaths, and internal consistency by estimating the percentage of deaths with reported causes of deaths considered impossible in some age–sex combinations. Finally, we propose a classification of the mortality registry in the studied areas based on completeness and quality.

Results

Completeness estimates (mean of the three methods used) in the provinces ranged from 21 to 87% in women and from 35 to 89% in men. The percentage of garbage codes in the provinces ranged from 21 to 56% in women and from 25 to 52% in men. Garbage coding was higher in women and in older age groups. The percentage of deaths with unspecified age or sex, and the percentage of deaths with reported causes of deaths considered impossible in some age–sex combinations was low in all the studied areas. The mortality registry could only be classified as acceptable in one area for men and one area for women.

Conclusions

We found substantial inequalities by sex, geographical areas and age in the completeness and quality of the mortality registry of Ecuador. The findings of this study will be helpful to direct measures to improve Ecuador’s vital statistics system and to generate strategies to reduce bias when using mortality data to analyse health inequalities in the country.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-019-0183-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Trends in cause-specific mortality among children aged 5-14 years from 2005 to 2016 in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico: an analysis of nationally representative mortality studies

BACKGROUND

With global survival increasing for children younger than 5 years of age, attention is required to reduce the approximately 1 million deaths of children aged 5-14 years occurring every year. Causes of death at these ages remain poorly documented. We aimed to explore trends in mortality by causes of death in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico, which are home to about 40% of the world's children aged 5-14 years and experience more than 200 000 deaths annually at these ages.

METHODS

We examined data on 244 401 deaths in children aged 5-14 years from four nationally representative data sources that obtained direct distributions of causes of death: the Indian Million Death Study, the Chinese Disease Surveillance Points, mortality data from the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, and mortality data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. We present data on 12 main disease groups in all countries, with breakdown by communicable and nutritional diseases, non-communicable diseases, injuries, and ill-defined causes. To calculate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each cause, we applied the national cause of death distribution to the UN mortality envelopes for 2005-16 for each country.

FINDINGS

Unlike Brazil, China, and Mexico, communicable diseases still account for nearly half of deaths in India in children aged 5-14 years (73 920 [46·1%] of 160 330 estimated deaths in 2016). In 2016, India had the highest death rates in nearly every category, including from communicable diseases. Fast declines among girls in communicable disease mortality narrowed the gap by 2016 with boys in India (32·6 deaths per 100 000 girls vs 26·2 per 100 000 boys) and China (1·7 vs 1·5). In China, injuries accounted for the greatest proportions of deaths (20 970 [53·2%] of 39 430 estimated deaths, in which drowning was a leading cause). The homicide death rate at ages 10-14 years was higher for boys than for girls in Brazil, increasing annually by an average of 0·7% (0·3-1·1). In India and China, the suicide death rates were higher for girls than for boys at ages 10-14 years. By contrast, in Mexico it was higher for boys than for girls, increasing annually by an average of 2·8% (2·0-3·6). Deaths from transport injuries, drowning, and cancer are common in all four countries, with transport accidents among the top three causes of death for both sexes in all countries, except for Indian girls, and cancer in the top three causes for both sexes in Mexico, Brazil, and China.

INTERPRETATION

Most of the deaths that occurred between 2005 and 2016 in children aged 5-14 years in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico arose from preventable or treatable conditions. This age group is important for extending some of the global disease-specific targets developed for children younger than 5 years of age. Interventions to control non-communicable diseases and injuries and to strengthen cause of death reporting systems are also required.

FUNDING

WHO and the University of Toronto Connaught Global Challenge.

Assessing the quality of medical death certification: a case study of concordance between national statistics and results from a medical record review in a regional hospital in the Philippines

Background

Medical certificates of cause of death (MCCOD) issued by hospital physicians are a key input to vital registration systems. Deaths certified by hospital physicians have been implicitly considered to be of high quality, but recent evidence suggests otherwise. We conducted a medical record review (MRR) of hospital MCCOD in the Philippines and compared the cause of death concordance with certificates coded by the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA).

Methods

MCCOD for adult deaths in Bohol Regional Hospital (BRH) in 2007–2008 and 2011 were collected and reviewed by a team of study physicians. Corresponding MCCOD coded by the PSA were linked by a hospital identifier. The study physicians wrote a new MCCOD using the patient medical record, noted the quality of the medical record to produce a cause of death, and indicated whether it was necessary to change the underlying cause of death (UCOD). Chance-corrected concordance, cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, and chance-corrected CSMF were used to examine the concordance between the MRR and PSA.

Results

A total of 1052 adult deaths were linked between the MRR and PSA. Median chance-corrected concordance was 0.73, CSMF accuracy was 0.85, and chance-corrected CSMF accuracy was 0.58. 74.8% of medical records were deemed to be of high enough quality to assign a cause of death, yet study physicians indicated that it was necessary to change the UCOD in 41% of deaths, 82% of which required addition of a new UCOD.

Conclusions

Medical records were generally of sufficient quality to assign a cause of death and concordance between the PSA and MRR was reasonably high, suggesting that routine mortality statistics data are reasonably accurate for describing population level causes of death in Bohol. While overall agreement between the PSA and MRR in major cause groups was sufficient for public health purposes, improvements in death certification practices are recommended to help physicians differentiate between treatable (immediate) COD and COD that are important for public health surveillance.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0178-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

How useful are registered birth statistics for health and social policy? A global systematic assessment of the availability and quality of birth registration data

Background

The registration and certification of births has a wide array of individual and societal benefits. While near-universal in some parts of the world, birth registration is less common in many low- and middle-income countries, and the quality of vital statistics vary. We assembled publicly available birth registration records for as many countries as possible into a novel global birth registration database, and we present a systematic assessment of available data.

Methods

We obtained 4918 country-years of data from 145 countries covering the period 1948–2015. We compared these to existing estimates of total births to assess completeness of public data and adapted existing methods to evaluate the quality and timeliness of the data.

Results

Since 1980, approximately one billion births were registered and shared in public databases. Compared to estimates of fertility, this represents only 40.0% of total births in the peak year, 2011. Approximately 74 million births (53.1%) per year occur in countries whose systems do not systematically register them and release the aggregate records. Considering data quality, timeliness, and completeness in country-years where data are available, only about 12 million births per year (8.6%) occur in countries with high-performing registration systems.

Conclusions

This analysis highlights the gaps in available data. Our objective and low-cost approach to assessing the performance of birth registration systems can be helpful to monitor country progress, and to help national and international policymakers set targets for strengthening birth registration systems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0180-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Saving lives through certifying deaths: assessing the impact of two interventions to improve cause of death data in Perú

Background

Mortality statistics derived from cause of death data are an important source of information for population health monitoring, priority setting and planning. In Perú, almost all death certificates are issued by doctors because it is a legal requirement. However, the quality of cause of death data is poor. In August 2016, the Ministry of Health of Perú decided to make two specific interventions to improve cause of death data: to introduce an online death certification system and to train doctors in standard death certification practices.

Methods

The study comprised a random sample of 300 pre-intervention death certificates, 900 death certificates that were part of the online intervention, and 900 death certificates that were part of both the online and training interventions. All the deaths had occurred between January and September 2017. We used the Assessing the quality of death certification tool from the University of Melbourne for the assessment. We examined the frequency of common errors in death certificates, the frequency of any error and the average error score for each category of: age group, sex, doctor’s seniority, doctor’s speciality, level of health facility and broad cause of death.

Results

The average error score declined by 38% due to the online intervention and by a further 26% due to the training intervention. Improved certification practices remained after controlling for potentially confounding factors. Main improvements were reductions in the absence of a time interval (66% of certificates), incorrect sequence of causes (22%), and ill-defined conditions (13%).

Conclusions

This study demonstrates how the two interventions introduced by the Ministry of Health in Perú improved the correctness of death certificates. The study also provides evidence on necessary changes to the training program to address the poor certification practices that have remained after implementation of the online system.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-6264-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Development and validation of a new method for indirect estimation of neonatal, infant, and child mortality trends using summary birth histories

BACKGROUND

The addition of neonatal (NN) mortality targets in the Sustainable Development Goals highlights the increased need for age-specific quantification of mortality trends, detail that is not provided by summary birth histories (SBHs). Several methods exist to indirectly estimate trends in under-5 mortality from SBHs; however, efforts to monitor mortality trends in important age groups such as the first month and first year of life have yet to utilize the vast amount of SBH data available from household surveys and censuses.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed 243 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 76 countries, which collected both complete and SBHs from 8.5 million children from 2.3 million mothers to develop a new empirically based method to indirectly estimate time trends in age-specific mortality. We used complete birth history (CBH) data to train a discrete hazards generalized additive model in order to predict individual hazard functions for children based on individual-, mother-, and country-year-level covariates. Individual-level predictions were aggregated over time by assigning probability weights to potential birth years from mothers from SBH data. Age-specific estimates were evaluated in three ways: using cross-validation, using an external database of an additional 243 non-DHS census and survey data sources, and comparing overall under-5 mortality to existing indirect methods. Our model was able to closely approximate trends in age-specific child mortality. Depending on age, the model was able to explain between 80% and 95% of the variation in the validation data. Bias was close to zero in every age, with median relative errors spanning from 0.96 to 1.09. For trends in all under-5s, performance was comparable to the methods used for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and significantly better than the standard indirect (Brass) method, especially in the 5 years preceding a survey. For the 15 years preceding surveys, the new method and GBD methods could explain more than 95% of the variation in the validation data for under-5s, whereas the standard indirect variants tested could only explain up to 88%. External validation using census and survey data found close agreement with concurrent direct estimates of mortality in the NN and infant age groups. As a predictive method based on empirical data, one limitation is that potential issues in these training data could be reflected in the resulting application of the method out of sample.

CONCLUSIONS

This new method for estimating child mortality produces results that are comparable to current best methods for indirect estimation of under-5 mortality while additionally producing age-specific estimates. Use of such methods allows researchers to utilize a massive amount of SBH data for estimation of trends in NN and infant mortality. Systematic application of these methods could further improve the evidence base for monitoring of trends and inequalities in age-specific child mortality.

Total and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios in patients with schizophrenia and/or substance use disorder

Individuals with schizophrenia or substance use disorder have a substantially increased mortality compared to the general population. Despite a high and probably increasing prevalence of comorbid substance use disorder in people with schizophrenia, the mortality in the comorbid group has been less studied and with contrasting results. We performed a nationwide open cohort study from 2009 to 2015, including all Norwegians aged 20-79 with schizophrenia and/or substance use disorder registered in any specialized health care setting in Norway, a total of 125,744 individuals. There were 12,318 deaths in the cohort, and total, sex-, age- and cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated, comparing the number of deaths in patients with schizophrenia, schizophrenia only, substance use disorder only or a co-occurring diagnosis of schizophrenia and substance use disorder to the number expected if the patients had the age-, sex- and calendar-year specific death rates of the general population. The SMRs were 4.9 (95% CI 4.7-5.1) for all schizophrenia patients, 4.4 (95% CI 4.2-4.6) in patients with schizophrenia without substance use disorder, 6.6 (95% CI 6.5-6.8) in patients with substance use disorder only, and 7.4 (95% CI 7.0-8.2) in patients with both schizophrenia and substance use disorder. The SMRs were elevated in both genders, in all age groups and for all considered causes of death, and most so in the youngest. Approximately 27% of the excess mortality in all patients with schizophrenia was due to the raised mortality in the subgroup with comorbid SUD. The increased mortality in patients with schizophrenia and/or substance use disorder corresponded to more than 10,000 premature deaths, which constituted 84% of all deaths in the cohort. The persistent mortality gap highlights the importance of securing systematic screening and proper access to somatic health care, and a more effective prevention of premature death from external causes in this group.

Age-Standardized Mortality Rates in the Caribbean: One Source, Three Different Interpretations

Purpose

A recent publication in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) provided the opportunity to calculate differences in published cancer mortality estimates for Caribbean jurisdictions from three organizations: MMWR, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. This comparison study serves to educate end users of these data.

Methods

We downloaded the publicly available cancer mortality estimates for 15 jurisdictions and the United States from the three organizations. We compared reported age-standardized mortality rates for each jurisdiction and calculated the range among estimates for each jurisdiction. We repeated this analysis after applying the same world population standard to all estimates.

Results

For males, the ranges of the Caribbean estimates were between 49% (Grenada and Trinidad) and 201% (US Virgin Islands) of the MMWR value, with an average of 88%. For females, the ranges were between 15% (Trinidad) and 171% (US Virgin Islands) of the MMWR value, with an average of 64%. After all estimates were compared using the same population standard, the ranges of the Caribbean estimates for males were between 6% (Grenada) and 111% (US Virgin Islands) of the MMWR value, with an average of 34%. For females, the ranges were between 7% (Grenada) and 97% (US Virgin Islands), with an average of 28%.

Conclusion

The use of different standard populations complicates comparisons across organizations. Data modeling does not completely compensate for quality of source data, as our analysis demonstrated by the differences in mortality rates despite the good quality of the vital registration in the Caribbean.

Global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality in 109 countries, from 2000 to 2014: an analysis of death certificates

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

In the context of increasing prevalence of diabetes in elderly people with multimorbidity, intensive glucose control may increase the risk of severe hypoglycaemia, potentially leading to death. While rising trends of severe hypoglycaemia rates have been reported in some European, North American and Asian countries, the global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality is unknown. We aimed to investigate global differences and trends of hypoglycaemia-related mortality.

METHODS

We used the WHO mortality database to extract information on death certificates reporting hypoglycaemia or diabetes as the underlying cause of death, and the United Nations demographic database to obtain data on mid-year population estimates from 2000 to 2014. We calculated crude and age-standardised proportions (defined as number of hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by total number of deaths from diabetes [i.e. the sum of hypoglycaemia- and diabetes-related deaths]) and rates (hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by mid-year population) of hypoglycaemia-related mortality and compared estimates across countries and over time.

RESULTS

Data for proportions were extracted from 109 countries (31 had data from all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised proportion of hypoglycaemia-related deaths was 4.49 (95% CI 4.44, 4.55) per 1000 total diabetes deaths. Compared with the overall mean, most Central American, South American and (mainly) Caribbean countries reported higher proportions (five more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths in Chile, six in Uruguay, 11 in Belize and 22 in Aruba), as well as Japan (11 more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths). In comparison, lower proportions were noted in most European countries, the USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. For countries with data available for all years analysed, trend analysis showed a 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable trends onwards. Rising trends were most evident for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, the USA and Japan. Data for rates were available for 105 countries (30 had data for all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related death rate was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77, 0.80) per 1 million person-years. Most Central American, South American and Caribbean countries similarly reported higher rates of hypoglycaemia-related death, whilst virtually all European countries, the USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Australia reported lower rates compared with the overall mean. Age-standardised rates were very low for most countries (lower than five per 1 million person-years in 89.5% of countries), resulting in small absolute differences among countries. As noted with the proportions analysis, trend analysis showed an overall 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable rate trends onwards; rising rates were particularly evident for Brazil, Chile and the USA.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Most countries in South America, Central America and the Caribbean showed the highest proportions of diabetes-related deaths attributable to hypoglycaemia and the highest rates of hypoglycaemia-related deaths. Between 2000 and 2014, rising trends were observed in Brazil, Chile and the USA for both rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related death, and in Argentina and Japan for proportions only. Further studies are required to unravel the contribution of clinical and socioeconomic factors, difference in diabetes prevalence and heterogeneity of death certification in determining lower rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related deaths in high-income countries in Europe, North America and Asia.

DATA AVAILABILITY

Data used for these analyses are available at https://doi.org/10.17632/ndp52fbz8r.1.

Trends in incident acute myocardial infarction in Norway: An updated analysis to 2014 using national data from the CVDNOR project

Background We updated the information on trends of incident acute myocardial infarction in Norway, focusing on whether the observed trends during 2001-2009 continued throughout 2014. Methods All incident (first) acute myocardial infarctions in Norwegian residents age 25 years and older were identified in the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway 1994-2014 project. We analysed overall and age group-specific (25-64 years, 65-84 years and 85 + years) trends by gender using Poisson regression analyses and report the average annual changes in rates with their 95% confidence intervals. Results During 2001-2014, 221,684 incident acute myocardial infarctions (59.4% men) were identified. Hospitalised cases accounted for 79.9% of all incident acute myocardial infarctions. Overall, incident acute myocardial infarction rates declined on average 2.6% per year (incidence rate ratio 0.974, 95% confidence interval 0.972-0.977) in men and 2.8% per year (incidence rate ratio 0.972, 95% confidence interval 0.971-0.974) in women, contributed by declining rates of hospitalisations (1.8% and 1.9% per year in men and women, respectively) and deaths (6.0% and 5.8% per year in men and women, respectively). Declining rates were observed in all three age groups. The overall acute myocardial infarction incidence rates continued to decline from 2009 onwards, with a steeper decline compared to 2001-2009. During 2009-2014, gender-adjusted acute myocardial infarction incidence among adults age 25-44 years declined 5.3% per year, contributed mostly by declines in hospitalisation rates (5.1% per year). Conclusion Acute myocardial infarction incidence rates continued to decline after 2009 in Norway in both men and women. The decline started to involve individuals aged 25-44 years, marking a turning point in the previously reported stagnation of rates during 2001-2009.

Quality of death certification in Colombia

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the quality of the certification of general death and cancer in Colombia.

METHODS

Validity indicators were described for each province and the cities of Bogotá, Cali, Manizales, Pasto and Bucaramanga. A factorial analysis of principal components was carried out in order to identify non-obvious relationships.

RESULTS

Were analyzed 984,159 deaths, among them there were 164,542 deaths due to cancer. 93.7% of the general mortality was well certified. The predominant errors were signs, symptoms and ill-defined conditions. 92.8% of cancer mortality was well certified. The predominant errors were due to poorly defined cancer sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Certification of quality indicators in Colombia has improved. Given the good performance of the quality indicators for certificating general death and cancer, it is considered that this is a valid input for the estimation of cancer incidences.

Examination of Cause-of-Death Data Quality Among New York City Deaths Due to Cancer, Pneumonia, or Diabetes From 2010 to 2014

The cause-of-death (COD) statement on the standard US death certificate is a valuable tool for public health practice, but its utility is impaired by reporting inaccuracies. To assess the quality of CODs reported in New York City, we developed and applied a quality measure to 3 leading CODs: cancer, pneumonia, and diabetes. The COD quality measure characterized 5 common issues with COD completion: nonspecific conditions as the underlying COD (UCOD); UCOD discrepancies; the presence of only 1 informative cause on the entire certificate; competing causes listed together on 1 line; and clinically improbable sequences. COD statements with more than 1 quality issue were defined as statements of "limited" quality. Of 82,116 deaths with cancer, diabetes, or pneumonia assigned as the UCOD in New York City from 2010 to 2014, 66.8% of pneumonia certificates were classified as "limited" quality as compared with 45.6% of cancer certificates and 32.3% of diabetes certificates. Forty percent of cancer certificates listed only 1 informative condition on the death certificate. Almost half of pneumonia certificates (45.9%) contained only enough information to assign International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code J18.9 ("unspecified pneumonia") as the UCOD, whereas most diabetes certificates contained UCOD discrepancies (25.2%). These limitations affect the quality of mortality data but may be reduced through quality improvement efforts.

Will the European Union reach the United Nations Millennium declaration target of a 50% reduction of tuberculosis mortality between 1990 and 2015?

Background

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) provide targets for 2015. MDG 6 includes a target to reduce the tuberculosis (TB) death rate by 50% compared with 1990. We aimed to assess whether this target was reached by the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area countries.

Methods

We used Eurostat causes of death data to assess whether the target was reached in the EU. We calculated the reduction in reported and adjusted death rates and the annual average percentage decline based on the available data.

Results

Between 1999 and 2014, the TB death rate decreased by 50%, the adjusted death rate by 56% and the annual average percentage decline was 5.43% (95% confidence interval 4.94–6.74) for the EU. Twenty of 26 countries reporting >5 TB deaths in the first reporting year reached the target of 50% reduction in adjusted death rate.

Conclusions

The EU reached the MDG target of a 50% reduction of the TB death rate and also the annual average percentage decline was larger than the 2.73% needed to reach the target. The World Health Organization ‘End TB Strategy’ requires a further reduction of the number of TB deaths of 35% by 2020 compared to 2015, which will challenge TB prevention and care services in the EU.

Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000-15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals

BACKGROUND

During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa.

METHODS

We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels-national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2-to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require.

FINDINGS

Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Myanmar mortality registration: an assessment for system improvement

BACKGROUND

The vital registration system in Myanmar has a long history and geographical coverage is currently high. However, a recent assessment of vital registration systems of 148 countries showed poor performance of the death registration system in Myanmar, suggesting the need for improvement. This study assessed the quality of mortality data generated from the vital registration system with regard to mortality levels and patterns, quality of cause of death data, and completeness of death registration in order to identify areas for improvement.

METHODS

The study used registered deaths in 2013 from the vital registration system, data from the 2014 Myanmar Population and Housing Census, and mortality indicators and COD information for the country estimated by international organizations. The study applied the guidelines recommended by AbouZahr et al. 2010 to assess mortality levels and patterns and quality of cause of death data. The completeness of death registration was assessed by a simple calculation based on the estimated number of deaths.

RESULTS

Findings suggested that the completeness of death registration was critically low (less than 60%). The under-registration was more severe in rural areas, in states and regions with difficult transportation and poor accessibility to health centers and for infant and child deaths. The quality of cause of death information was poor, with possible over-reporting of non-communicable disease codes and a high proportion of ill-defined causes of death (22.3% of total deaths).

CONCLUSION

The results indicated that the vital registration system in Myanmar does not produce reliable mortality statistics. In response to monitoring mortalities as mandated by the Sustainable Development Goals, a significant and sustained government commitment and investment in strengthening the vital registration system in Myanmar is recommended.

Implementing the PHMRC shortened questionnaire: Survey duration of open and closed questions in three sites

Background

More countries are using verbal autopsy as a part of routine mortality surveillance. The length of time required to complete a verbal autopsy interview is a key logistical consideration for planning large-scale surveillance.

Methods

We use the PHMRC shortened questionnaire to conduct verbal autopsy interviews at three sites and collect data on the length of time required to complete the interview. This instrument uses a novel checklist of keywords to capture relevant information from the open response. The open response section is timed separately from the section consisting of closed questions.

Results

We found the median time to complete the entire interview was approximately 25 minutes and did not vary substantially by age-specific module. The median time for the open response section was approximately 4 minutes and 60% of interviewees mentioned at least one keyword within the open response section.

Conclusions

The length of time required to complete the interview was short enough for large-scale routine use. The open-response section did not add a substantial amount of time and provided useful information which can be used to increase the accuracy of the predictions of the cause of death. The novel checklist approach further reduces the burden of transcribing and translating a large amount of free text. This makes the PHMRC instrument ideal for national mortality surveillance.

Improvements in Spectrum's fit to program data tool

OBJECTIVE

The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package (Glastonbury, Connecticut, USA) is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15-49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with program and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or people living with HIV and AIDS related deaths. This article describes development and application of the fit to program data (FPD) tool in Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS' 2016 estimates round.

METHODS

In the FPD tool, HIV incidence trends are described as a simple or double logistic function. Function parameters are estimated from historical program data on newly reported HIV cases, people living with HIV or AIDS-related deaths. Inputs can be adjusted for proportions undiagnosed or misclassified deaths. Maximum likelihood estimation or minimum chi-squared distance methods are used to identify the best fitting curve. Asymptotic properties of the estimators from these fits are used to estimate uncertainty.

RESULTS

The FPD tool was used to fit incidence for 62 countries in 2016. Maximum likelihood and minimum chi-squared distance methods gave similar results. A double logistic curve adequately described observed trends in all but four countries where a simple logistic curve performed better.

CONCLUSION

Robust HIV-related program and vital registration data are routinely available in many middle-income and high-income countries, whereas HIV seroprevalence surveillance and survey data may be scarce. In these countries, the FPD tool offers a simpler, improved approach to estimating HIV incidence trends.

Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009: A Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) Project

BACKGROUND

Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (<70 and ≥70 years), and results were expressed as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95%CIs. Of 100 783 coronary heart disease deaths, 58.8% were OHCDs. From 1995 to 2009, age-adjusted OHCD rates declined across all education categories (primary, secondary, and tertiary) in younger men (IRR=0.35; 95%CI 0.32-0.38; IRR=0.38; 95%CI 0.35-0.42; IRR=0.33; 95%CI 0.28-0.40), younger women (IRR=0.47; 95% CI 0.40-0.56; IRR=0.55; 95%CI 0.45-0.67; IRR=0.28; 95% CI 0.16-0.47), older men (IRR=0.20; 95%CI 0.19-0.22; IRR=0.20; 95%CI 0.18-0.22; IRR=0.20; 95%CI 0.17-0.23), and older women (IRR=0.26; 95%CI 0.24-0.28; IRR=0.25; 95%CI 0.23-0.28; IRR=0.28; 95%CI 0.22-0.34). Tertiary education was associated with lower risk of OHCD compared to primary education (IRR=0.37; 95%CI 0.35-0.40 in younger men, IRR=0.26; 95%CI 0.22-0.30 in younger women, IRR=0.52; 95%CI 0.49-0.55 in older men, and IRR=0.61; 95%CI 0.57-0.66 in older women). These gradients did not change over time (P interaction=0.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Although OHCD rates declined substantially during 1995 to 2009, they displayed educational gradients that remained constant over time.

The paradox of verbal autopsy in cause of death assignment: symptom question unreliability but predictive accuracy

Background

We believe that it is important that governments understand the reliability of the mortality data which they have at their disposable to guide policy debates. In many instances, verbal autopsy (VA) will be the only source of mortality data for populations, yet little is known about how the accuracy of VA diagnoses is affected by the reliability of the symptom responses. We previously described the effect of the duration of time between death and VA administration on VA validity. In this paper, using the same dataset, we assess the relationship between the reliability and completeness of symptom responses and the reliability and accuracy of cause of death (COD) prediction.

Methods

The study was based on VAs in the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) VA Validation Dataset from study sites in Bohol and Manila, Philippines and Andhra Pradesh, India. The initial interview was repeated within 3–52 months of death. Question responses were assessed for reliability and completeness between the two survey rounds. COD was predicted by Tariff Method.

Results

A sample of 4226 VAs was collected for 2113 decedents, including 1394 adults, 349 children, and 370 neonates. Mean question reliability was unexpectedly low (kappa = 0.447): 42.5 % of responses positive at the first interview were negative at the second, and 47.9 % of responses positive at the second had been negative at the first. Question reliability was greater for the short form of the PHMRC instrument (kappa = 0.497) and when analyzed at the level of the individual decedent (kappa = 0.610). Reliability at the level of the individual decedent was associated with COD predictive reliability and predictive accuracy.

Conclusions

Families give coherent accounts of events leading to death but the details vary from interview to interview for the same case. Accounts are accurate but inconsistent; different subsets of symptoms are identified on each occasion. However, there are sufficient accurate and consistent subsets of symptoms to enable the Tariff Method to assign a COD.

Questions which contributed most to COD prediction were also the most reliable and consistent across repeat interviews; these have been included in the short form VA questionnaire. Accuracy and reliability of diagnosis for an individual death depend on the quality of interview. This has considerable implications for the progressive roll out of VAs into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-016-0104-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Improving the measurement of maternal mortality in Thailand using multiple data sources

BACKGROUND

Thailand uses cause of death records in civil registration to summarize maternal mortality statistics. A report by the Department of Health using the Reproductive Age Mortality Studies (RAMOS) reported that the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in 1997 was approximately three to four times higher than MMR based on the civil registration cause of death records. Here, we used multiple data sources to systematically measure maternal mortality in Thailand and showed a disparity between age groups and regions.

METHODS

We calculated the number of maternal deaths using a two-stage method. In the first stage, we counted the number of deceased mothers who successfully gave live births. In the second stage, we counted the number of women who died during the pregnancy, delivery, or the postpartum period without a live birth.

RESULTS

The number of maternal deaths dropped from 268 in 2007 to 226 in 2014. Nearly 50 % of the deaths occurred in Stage 1. The maternal mortality ratio in 2007 was 33.6 per 100,000 live births; the rate fell to 31.8 in 2014. The age ranges of women observed were 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49, and the MMR averages were 21.5, 23.8, 27.0, 42.1, 67.7, 115.4, and 423.4 per 100,000 live births, respectively. The Southern region consistently exhibited the highest MMR compared to other regions for every year analyzed, except 2012. Women in Bangkok had a lower risk of dying during pregnancy, delivery, and the postpartum period than women from other regions.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated that using multiple administrative data sources in the two-stage method was an efficient method that provided systematic measurement and timely reporting on the maternal mortality ratio. An additional benefit of the method was that information provided from the combined data sources, (e.g., the number of maternal deaths by age group and region) was relevant to the safe motherhood policy.

Sex differences in mortality among patients admitted with affective disorders in North Norway: a 33-year prospective register study

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies from North Norway showed significantly increased mortality in patients with schizophrenia and personality disorder. The aim of the present study was to investigate total and cause-specific mortality in inpatients with affective disorder in a 33-year follow-up cohort, with a specific focus on sex differences.

METHODS

Based on a hospital case register covering all admissions to psychiatric hospital in the two northernmost counties in Norway from 1980 to 2012, 790 men and 866 women with major depressive disorder and 331 men and 514 women with bipolar disorder were included. The cohort was linked to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. The relative mortality in men compared to women was tested using Cox regression with attained age as the time variable. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of the patients when compared to the general population in Norway was calculated.

RESULTS

Patients with affective disorders had twice the mortality of the general Norwegian population [SMR = 2.1, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-2.3]. For major depressive disorder, the SMR for total mortality was higher among men (2.6, 95% CI: 2.2-3.0) than women (1.8, 95% CI: 1.5-2.1). For bipolar disorder, no difference was seen between men and women. The SMR for suicide among women showed an increasing trend throughout the period 1980-1990: 20.0 (95% CI: 10.4-38.4); 1991-2001: 27.0 (95% CI: 15.7-46.2); 2002-2012: 40.4 (95% CI: 23.0-71.2).

CONCLUSIONS

The substantially increased mortality in patients with affective disorders in Norway has been persistent over a period of 33 years, despite extensive reforms in psychiatric health care. Indications of increasing SMR for suicide in women call for further research.

Identifying potential differences in cause-of-death coding practices across Russian regions

BACKGROUND

Reliable and comparable data on causes of death are crucial for public health analysis, but the usefulness of these data can be markedly diminished when the approach to coding is not standardized across territories and/or over time. Because the Russian system of producing information on causes of death is highly decentralized, there may be discrepancies in the coding practices employed across the country. In this study, we evaluate the uniformity of cause-of-death coding practices across Russian regions using an indirect method.

METHODS

Based on 2002-2012 mortality data, we estimate the prevalence of the major causes of death (70 causes) in the mortality structures of 52 Russian regions. For each region-cause combination we measured the degree to which the share of a certain cause in the mortality structure of a certain region deviates from the respective inter-regional average share. We use heat map visualization and a regression model to determine whether there is regularity in the causes and the regions that is more likely to deviate from the average level across all regions. In addition to analyzing the comparability of cause-specific mortality structures in a spatial dimension, we examine the regional cause-of-death time series to identify the causes with temporal trends that vary greatly across regions.

RESULTS

A high level of consistency was found both across regions and over time for transport accidents, most of the neoplasms, congenital malformations, and perinatal conditions. However, a high degree of inconsistency was found for mental and behavioral disorders, diseases of the nervous system, endocrine disorders, ill-defined causes of death, and certain cardiovascular diseases. This finding suggests that the coding practices for these causes of death are not uniform across regions. The level of consistency improves when causes of death can be grouped into broader diagnostic categories.

CONCLUSION

This systematic analysis allows us to present a broader picture of the quality of cause-of-death coding at the regional level. For some causes of death, there is a high degree of variance across regions in the likelihood that these causes will be chosen as the underlying causes. In addition, for some causes of death the mortality statistics reflect the coding practices, rather than the real epidemiological situation.

eRegistries: Electronic registries for maternal and child health

BACKGROUND

The Global Roadmap for Health Measurement and Accountability sees integrated systems for health information as key to obtaining seamless, sustainable, and secure information exchanges at all levels of health systems. The Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescent's Health aims to achieve a continuum of quality of care with effective coverage of interventions. The WHO and World Bank recommend that countries focus on intervention coverage to monitor programs and progress for universal health coverage. Electronic health registries - eRegistries - represent integrated systems that secure a triple return on investments: First, effective single data collection for health workers to seamlessly follow individuals along the continuum of care and across disconnected cadres of care providers. Second, real-time public health surveillance and monitoring of intervention coverage, and third, feedback of information to individuals, care providers and the public for transparent accountability. This series on eRegistries presents frameworks and tools to facilitate the development and secure operation of eRegistries for maternal and child health.

METHODS

In this first paper of the eRegistries Series we have used WHO frameworks and taxonomy to map how eRegistries can support commonly used electronic and mobile applications to alleviate health systems constraints in maternal and child health. A web-based survey of public health officials in 64 low- and middle-income countries, and a systematic search of literature from 2005-2015, aimed to assess country capacities by the current status, quality and use of data in reproductive health registries.

RESULTS

eRegistries can offer support for the 12 most commonly used electronic and mobile applications for health. Countries are implementing health registries in various forms, the majority in transition from paper-based data collection to electronic systems, but very few have eRegistries that can act as an integrating backbone for health information. More mature country capacity reflected by published health registry based research is emerging in settings reaching regional or national scale, increasingly with electronic solutions. 66 scientific publications were identified based on 32 registry systems in 23 countries over a period of 10 years; this reflects a challenging experience and capacity gap for delivering sustainable high quality registries.

CONCLUSIONS

Registries are being developed and used in many high burden countries, but their potential benefits are far from realized as few countries have fully transitioned from paper-based health information to integrated electronic backbone systems. Free tools and frameworks exist to facilitate progress in health information for women and children.

A shortened verbal autopsy instrument for use in routine mortality surveillance systems

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy (VA) is recognized as the only feasible alternative to comprehensive medical certification of deaths in settings with no or unreliable vital registration systems. However, a barrier to its use by national registration systems has been the amount of time and cost needed for data collection. Therefore, a short VA instrument (VAI) is needed. In this paper we describe a shortened version of the VAI developed for the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) Gold Standard Verbal Autopsy Validation Study using a systematic approach.

METHODS

We used data from the PHMRC validation study. Using the Tariff 2.0 method, we first established a rank order of individual questions in the PHMRC VAI according to their importance in predicting causes of death. Second, we reduced the size of the instrument by dropping questions in reverse order of their importance. We assessed the predictive performance of the instrument as questions were removed at the individual level by calculating chance-corrected concordance and at the population level with cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy. Finally, the optimum size of the shortened instrument was determined using a first derivative analysis of the decline in performance as the size of the VA instrument decreased for adults, children, and neonates.

RESULTS

The full PHMRC VAI had 183, 127, and 149 questions for adult, child, and neonatal deaths, respectively. The shortened instrument developed had 109, 69, and 67 questions, respectively, representing a decrease in the total number of questions of 40-55%. The shortened instrument, with text, showed non-significant declines in CSMF accuracy from the full instrument with text of 0.4%, 0.0%, and 0.6% for the adult, child, and neonatal modules, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a shortened VAI using a systematic approach, and assessed its performance when administered using hand-held electronic tablets and analyzed using Tariff 2.0. The length of a VA questionnaire was shortened by almost 50% without a significant drop in performance. The shortened VAI developed reduces the burden of time and resources required for data collection and analysis of cause of death data in civil registration systems.

Improving performance of the Tariff Method for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies

BACKGROUND

Reliable data on the distribution of causes of death (COD) in a population are fundamental to good public health practice. In the absence of comprehensive medical certification of deaths, the only feasible way to collect essential mortality data is verbal autopsy (VA). The Tariff Method was developed by the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) to ascertain COD from VA information. Given its potential for improving information about COD, there is interest in refining the method. We describe the further development of the Tariff Method.

METHODS

This study uses data from the PHMRC and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia studies. Gold standard clinical diagnostic criteria for hospital deaths were specified for a target cause list. VAs were collected from families using the PHMRC verbal autopsy instrument including health care experience (HCE). The original Tariff Method (Tariff 1.0) was trained using the validated PHMRC database for which VAs had been collected for deaths with hospital records fulfilling the gold standard criteria (validated VAs). In this study, the performance of Tariff 1.0 was tested using VAs from household surveys (community VAs) collected for the PHMRC and NHMRC studies. We then corrected the model to account for the previous observed biases of the model, and Tariff 2.0 was developed. The performance of Tariff 2.0 was measured at individual and population levels using the validated PHMRC database.

RESULTS

For median chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and mean cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, and for each of three modules with and without HCE, Tariff 2.0 performs significantly better than the Tariff 1.0, especially in children and neonates. Improvement in CSMF accuracy with HCE was 2.5%, 7.4%, and 14.9% for adults, children, and neonates, respectively, and for median CCC with HCE it was 6.0%, 13.5%, and 21.2%, respectively. Similar levels of improvement are seen in analyses without HCE.

CONCLUSIONS

Tariff 2.0 addresses the main shortcomings of the application of the Tariff Method to analyze data from VAs in community settings. It provides an estimation of COD from VAs with better performance at the individual and population level than the previous version of this method, and it is publicly available for use.

Measuring causes of death in populations: a new metric that corrects cause-specific mortality fractions for chance

Background

Verbal autopsy is gaining increasing acceptance as a method for determining the underlying cause of death when the cause of death given on death certificates is unavailable or unreliable, and there are now a number of alternative approaches for mapping from verbal autopsy interviews to the underlying cause of death. For public health applications, the population-level aggregates of the underlying causes are of primary interest, expressed as the cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive cause list. Until now, CSMF Accuracy is the primary metric that has been used for measuring the quality of CSMF estimation methods. Although it allows for relative comparisons of alternative methods, CSMF Accuracy provides misleading numbers in absolute terms, because even random allocation of underlying causes yields relatively high CSMF accuracy. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop and test a measure of CSMF that corrects this problem.

Methods

We developed a baseline approach of random allocation and measured its performance analytically and through Monte Carlo simulation. We used this to develop a new metric of population-level estimation accuracy, the Chance Corrected CSMF Accuracy (CCCSMF Accuracy), which has value near zero for random guessing, and negative quality values for estimation methods that are worse than random at the population level.

Results

The CCCSMF Accuracy formula was found to be CCSMF Accuracy = (CSMF Accuracy - 0.632) / (1 - 0.632), which indicates that, at the population-level, some existing and commonly used VA methods perform worse than random guessing.

Conclusions

CCCSMF Accuracy should be used instead of CSMF Accuracy when assessing VA estimation methods because it provides a more easily interpreted measure of the quality of population-level estimates.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-015-0061-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Are well functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems associated with better health outcomes?

In this Series paper, we examine whether well functioning civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems are associated with improved population health outcomes. We present a conceptual model connecting CRVS to wellbeing, and describe an ecological association between CRVS and health outcomes. The conceptual model posits that the legal identity that civil registration provides to individuals is key to access entitlements and services. Vital statistics produced by CRVS systems provide essential information for public health policy and prevention. These outcomes benefit individuals and societies, including improved health. We use marginal linear models and lag-lead analysis to measure ecological associations between a composite metric of CRVS performance and three health outcomes. Results are consistent with the conceptual model: improved CRVS performance coincides with improved health outcomes worldwide in a temporally consistent manner. Investment to strengthen CRVS systems is not only an important goal for individuals and societies, but also a development imperative that is good for health.

A global assessment of civil registration and vital statistics systems: monitoring data quality and progress

Increasing demand for better quality data and more investment to strengthen civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems will require increased emphasis on objective, comparable, cost-effective monitoring and assessment methods to measure progress. We apply a composite index (the vital statistics performance index [VSPI]) to assess the performance of CRVS systems in 148 countries or territories during 1980-2012 and classify them into five distinct performance categories, ranging from rudimentary (with scores close to zero) to satisfactory (with scores close to one), with a mean VSPI score since 2005 of 0·61 (SD 0·31). As expected, the best performing systems were mostly in the European region, the Americas, and Australasia, with only two countries from east Asia and Latin America. Most low-scoring countries were in the African or Asian regions. Globally, only modest progress has been made since 2000, with the percentage of deaths registered increasing from 36% to 38%, and the percentage of children aged under 5 years whose birth has been registered increasing from 58% to 65%. However, several individual countries have made substantial improvements to their CRVS systems in the past 30 years by capturing more deaths and improving accuracy of cause-of-death information. Future monitoring of the effects of CRVS strengthening will greatly benefit from application of a metric like the VSPI, which is objective, costless to compute, and able to identify components of the system that make the largest contributions to good or poor performance.

Reliable mortality statistics for Turkey: Are we there yet?

BACKGROUND

The Turkish government has implemented several reforms to improve the Turkish Statistical Institute Death Reporting System (TURKSTAT-DRS) since 2009. However, there has been no assessment to evaluate the impact of these reforms on causes of death statistics. This study attempted to analyse the impact of these reforms on the TURKSTAT-DRS for Turkey, and in the case of Izmir, one of the most developed provinces in Turkey.

METHODS

The evaluation framework comprised three main components each with specific criteria. Firstly, data from TURKSTAT for Turkey and Izmir for the periods 2001-2008 and 2009-2013 were assessed in terms of the following dimensions that represent quality of mortality statistics (a. completeness of death registration, b. trends in proportions of deaths with ill-defined causes). Secondly, the quality of information recorded on individual death certificates from Izmir in 2010 was analysed for a. missing information, b. timeliness of death notifications and c. characteristics of deaths with ill-defined causes. Finally, TURKSTAT data were analysed to estimate life tables and summary mortality indicators for Turkey and Izmir, as well as the leading causes-of-death in Turkey in 2013.

RESULTS

Registration of adult deaths in Izmir as well as at the national level for Turkey has considerably improved since the introduction of reforms in 2009, along with marked decline in the proportions of deaths assigned ill-defined causes. Death certificates from Izmir indicated significant gaps in recorded information for demographic as well as epidemiological variables, particularly for infant deaths, and in the detailed recording of causes of death. Life expectancy at birth estimated from local data is 3-4 years higher than similar estimates for Turkey from international studies, and this requires further investigation and confirmation.

CONCLUSION

The TURKSTAT-DRS is now an improved source of mortality and cause of death statistics for Turkey. The reliability and validity of TURKSTAT data needs to be established through a detailed research program to evaluate completeness of death registration and validity of registered causes of death. Similar evaluation and data analysis of mortality indicators is required at regular intervals at national and sub-national level, to increase confidence in their utility as primary data for epidemiology and health policy.

Better health intelligence: a new era for civil registration and vital statistics?

The impetus and opportunities for improving birth, death, and cause of death data have never been more propitious. Renewed country commitment to strengthen vital registration systems is clearly evident, supported by nascent regional coalitions of technical and development organisations. The announcement of a major new investment by Bloomberg Philanthropies to strengthen data systems and capacity in selected countries has the potential to catalyse and realise significant improvements in the availability and quality of data for health. This will require technical leadership, strategic intervention choices, strong country partnerships, and efficient delivery and management of multiple technical interventions across participating countries.

Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN sustainable development goal for health

BACKGROUND

The UN will formulate ambitious Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, including one for health. Feasible goals with some quantifiable, measurable targets can influence governments. We propose, as a quatitative health target, "Avoid in each country 40% of premature deaths (under-70 deaths that would be seen in the 2030 population at 2010 death rates), and improve health care at all ages". Targeting overall mortality and improved health care ignores no modifiable cause of death, nor any cause of disability that is treatable (or also causes many deaths). 40% fewer premature deaths would be important in all countries, but implies very different priorities in different populations. Reinforcing this target for overall mortality in each country are four global subtargets for 2030: avoid two-thirds of child and maternal deaths; two-thirds of tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria deaths; a third of premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and a third of those from other causes (other communicable diseases, undernutrition, and injuries). These challenging subtargets would halve under-50 deaths, avoid a third of the (mainly NCD) deaths at ages 50-69 years, and so avoid 40% of under-70 deaths. To help assess feasibility, we review mortality rates and trends in the 25 most populous countries, in four country income groupings, and worldwide.

METHODS

UN sources yielded overall 1970-2010 mortality trends. WHO sources yielded cause-specific 2000-10 trends, standardised to country-specific 2030 populations; decreases per decade of 42% or 18% would yield 20-year reductions of two-thirds or a third.

RESULTS

Throughout the world, except in countries where the effects of HIV or political disturbances predominated, mortality decreased substantially from 1970-2010, particularly in childhood. From 2000-10, under-70 age-standardised mortality rates decreased 19% (with the low-income and lower-middle-income countries having the greatest absolute gains). The proportional decreases per decade (2000-10) were: 34% at ages 0-4 years; 17% at ages 5-49 years; 15% at ages 50-69 years; 30% for communicable, perinatal, maternal, or nutritional causes; 14% for NCDs; and 13% for injuries (accident, suicide, or homicide).

INTERPRETATION

Moderate acceleration of the 2000-10 proportional decreases in mortality could be feasible, achieving the targeted 2030 disease-specific reductions of two-thirds or a third. If achieved, these reductions avoid about 10 million of the 20 million deaths at ages 0-49 years that would be seen in 2030 at 2010 death rates, and about 17 million of the 41 million such deaths at ages 0-69 years. Such changes could be achievable by 2030, or soon afterwards, at least in areas free of war, other major effects of political disruption, or a major new epidemic.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, Centre for Global Health Research, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.