Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth

A dataset of forest regrowth in globally key deforestation regions

Deforestation-induced forest loss largely affects both the carbon budget and ecosystem services. Subsequent forest regrowth plays a crucial role in ecosystem restoration and carbon replenishment. However, there is an absence of comprehensive datasets explicitly delineating the forest regrowth following deforestation. Here we employed multiple remotely sensed datasets to generate the first dataset capturing forest structural regrowth, including forest height, aboveground biomass (AGB), leaf area index (LAI), and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR), subsequent to deforestation in globally key deforestation regions at a 30 m spatial resolution. The regrowth index for each structural parameter includes regrowth ratios and rates at 5-year intervals spanning primarily from 1985 to 2020. This dataset provides a nuanced understanding of forest regrowth following deforestation across spatial, temporal, and structural scales, thereby facilitating accurate quantification of forest carbon budget and enhancing assessments of forest ecological services.

Variable impacts of land-based climate mitigation on habitat area for vertebrate diversity

Pathways to achieving net zero carbon emissions commonly involve deploying reforestation, afforestation, and bioenergy crops across millions of hectares of land. It is often assumed that by helping to mitigate climate change, these strategies indirectly benefit biodiversity. Here, we modeled the climate and habitat requirements of 14,234 vertebrate species and show that the impact of these strategies on species' habitat area tends not to arise through climate mitigation, but rather through habitat conversion. Across locations, reforestation tends to provide species more habitat through both land-cover change and climate mitigation, whereas habitat loss from afforestation and bioenergy cropping typically outweighs the climate mitigation benefits. This work shows how and where land-based mitigation strategies can be deployed without inadvertently reducing the area of habitat for global biodiversity.

Rapid Increase in Soil Respiration and Reduction in Soil Nitrate Availability Following CO2 Enrichment in a Mature Oak Forest

In the future, with elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2), forests are expected to increase woody biomass to capture more carbon (C), though this is dependent on soil nutrient availability. While young forests may access unused nutrients by growing into an unexplored soil environment, it is unclear how or if mature forests can adapt belowground under eCO2. Soil respiration (R s) and nutrient bioavailability are integrative ecosystem measures of below-ground dynamics. At Birmingham's Institute of Forest Research Free Air CO2 Enrichment (BIFoR FACE) facility, we investigated the effects of eCO2 (+150 ppm above ambient) on a mature oak forest during the first year of exposure. We observed an annual Rs increase of ∼21.5%; 996 ± 398 g C m-2 year-1 (ambient) to 1210 ± 483 g C m-2 year-1 (eCO2). The eCO2 impact was greater on belowground nutrient cycling, with monthly nitrate availability decreasing by up to 36%. These results show that high C uptake resulted in higher soil respiration with a concomitant decrease in the level of soil nitrate during the first year. These belowground responses and their long-term dynamics will have implications for the carbon budget of mature forest ecosystems in changing climate.

Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023

In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, which was 86% above that of the previous year and hit a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6% ± 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here, we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 ± 0.21 GtC yr-1, which is the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellite fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data-driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015 to 2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 ± 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 ± 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in Southeast Asia (0.13 ± 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20°N had declined by half to 1.13 ± 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-2016 El Niño carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Niña years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Niño (0.56 ± 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Niña's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Niño later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change.

Global potential for natural regeneration in deforested tropical regions

Extensive forest restoration is a key strategy to meet nature-based sustainable development goals and provide multiple social and environmental benefits1. Yet achieving forest restoration at scale requires cost-effective methods2. Tree planting in degraded landscapes is a popular but costly forest restoration method that often results in less biodiverse forests when compared to natural regeneration techniques under similar conditions3. Here we assess the current spatial distribution of pantropical natural forest (from 2000 to 2016) and use this to present a model of the potential for natural regeneration across tropical forested countries and biomes at a spatial resolution of 30 m. We estimate that an area of 215 million hectares-an area greater than the entire country of Mexico-has potential for natural forest regeneration, representing an above-ground carbon sequestration potential of 23.4 Gt C (range, 21.1-25.7 Gt) over 30 years. Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico and Colombia) account for 52% of this estimated potential, showcasing the need for targeting restoration initiatives that leverage natural regeneration potential. Our results facilitate broader equitable decision-making processes that capitalize on the widespread opportunity for natural regeneration to help achieve national and global environmental agendas.

Biodiversity and anthropogenic disturbances predominantly drive carbon sequestration rates across temporal scales in temperate forests

Addressing the escalating challenges of climate change necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing carbon sequestration rates (CSRs) in forest ecosystems. Although the impact of various biotic factors, environmental, and anthropogenic factors on CSRs over different time scales is well recognized, their precise roles remain poorly defined. This study aims to clarify the mechanistic relationships between CSRs and these factors in large-scale natural temperate forests in northeastern China. We employed linear mixed-effects models and piecewise structural equation models were to analyze data from 310 vegetation plots, assessing the effects of biotic factors (including multidimensional diversity, structural diversity, and community-weighted mean (CWM) trait values) and abiotic factors (climate, topography, and anthropogenic disturbances) across different forest types and successional stages. Our analysis tested a series of hypotheses to identify the principal drivers of forest CSRs. The results indicate that while functional composition and standard environmental factors such as mean annual temperature and slope are significant, their influence is markedly less than that of biodiversity (encompassing multidimensional and structural diversity) and anthropogenic disturbance (as measured by the Human Modification Index). These findings support the dominance of the niche complementarity theory and the moderate disturbance hypothesis, with their importance increasing over time. Furthermore, this study advocates for forest management strategies that are specifically tailored to the unique characteristics of mixed and dense forests at different stages of succession. By elucidating the complex relationships between ecological variables and CSRs, our findings provide critical insights for the development of effective strategies aimed at optimizing forest carbon sequestration. This study underscores the necessity of integrating sustainable forest management with the conservation of ecological biodiversity.

Slowly getting there: a review of country experience on estimating emissions and removals from forest degradation

Estimating emissions and removals from forest degradation is important, yet challenging, for many countries. This paper reports results from analysis of country reporting (to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and also to several climate finance initiatives) and key take-aways from a south-south exchange workshop among 17 countries with forest mitigation programmes. During the workshop discussions it became clear that, where forest degradation is a major source of emissions, governments want to include it when reporting on their mitigation efforts. However, challenges to accurately estimating emissions from degradation relate to defining forest degradation and setting the scope for estimating carbon stock changes; to detecting and monitoring degradation using earth observation data; and to estimating associated emissions and removals from field observation results. The paper concludes that recent and ongoing investments into data and analysis methods have helped improve forest degradation estimation, but further methodological work and continued effort will be needed.

Assessment of habitat features modulated carbon sequestration strategies for drought management in tropical dry forest fragments

Habitat features, such as species diversity, functional diversity, tree size, disturbances and fragment sizes have differential impacts on carbon (C) storage and C-sequestration in forest ecosystems. Present study attempted to understand the tree strategies for modulating C-sequestration capacity across tropical dry forest fragments with variable edge distances. We evaluated the differences between drought strategies (i.e., drought avoiding and drought tolerant) for variations in stem density, relative growth rate (RGR), C-storage and C-sequestration, species diversity, functional diversity, tree size and disturbance indicators along edge distance gradient, besides analyzed the differences between drought strategies for responses of C-storage and C-sequestration to variations in species diversity, functional diversity, tree size and disturbance indicators. Various traits and functional indices were analyzed using standard statistical techniques. For total trees and for the two drought strategies, generalized linear modeling results showed a significant decline in stem density, RGR, C-stock, C-sequestration, species diversity, functional diversity and tree size indicators, while a considerable increase in disturbance indicators, along decreasing edge distance across the fragments. The drought strategies exhibited a high degree of variation in the slope of associations for above variables with edge distance across fragments. For predicting C-sequestration, structural equation modeling results showed highly significant influence of functional diversity indicators for drought avoiding strategy, while species diversity indicators were strongly significant for drought tolerant strategy. Moreover, fire index and drought index were critical predictors for C-sequestration for drought avoiding and drought tolerant strategies, respectively. This study provide inputs to understand the largely ignored processes of C-storage and C-sequestration in fragmented forests, which are currently prevalent due to heavy anthropogenic pressures. Our findings are useful for forest managers to understand vegetation responses to interactions of species diversity, functional diversity, tree size and disturbance indicators, for predicting the stability of larger fragments and for planning restoration of smaller fragments.

Defaunation impacts on the carbon balance of tropical forests

The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change necessitates a comprehensive understanding of carbon cycling dynamics. Traditionally, global carbon cycle models have focused on vegetation, but recent research suggests that animals can play a significant role in carbon dynamics under some circumstances, potentially enhancing the effectiveness of nature-based solutions to mitigate climate change. However, links between animals, plants, and carbon remain unclear. We explored the complex interactions between defaunation and ecosystem carbon in Earth's most biodiverse and carbon-rich biome, tropical rainforests. Defaunation can change patterns of seed dispersal, granivory, and herbivory in ways that alter tree species composition and, therefore, forest carbon above- and belowground. Most studies we reviewed show that defaunation reduces carbon storage 0-26% in the Neo- and Afrotropics, primarily via population declines in large-seeded, animal-dispersed trees. However, Asian forests are not predicted to experience changes because their high-carbon trees are wind dispersed. Extrapolating these local effects to entire ecosystems implies losses of ∼1.6 Pg CO2 equivalent across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and 4-9.2 Pg across the Amazon over 100 years and of ∼14.7-26.3 Pg across the Congo basin over 250 years. In addition to being hard to quantify with precision, the effects of defaunation on ecosystem carbon are highly context dependent; outcomes varied based on the balance between antagonist and mutualist species interactions, abiotic conditions, human pressure, and numerous other factors. A combination of experiments, large-scale comparative studies, and mechanistic models could help disentangle the effects of defaunation from other anthropogenic forces in the face of the incredible complexity of tropical forest systems. Overall, our synthesis emphasizes the importance of-and inconsistent results when-integrating animal dynamics into carbon cycle models, which is crucial for developing climate change mitigation strategies and effective policies.

Genomic variation of European beech reveals signals of local adaptation despite high levels of phenotypic plasticity

Local adaptation is key for ecotypic differentiation and species evolution. Understanding underlying genomic patterns can allow the prediction of future maladaptation and ecosystem stability. Here, we report the whole-genome resequencing of 874 individuals from 100 range-wide populations of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), an important forest tree species in Europe. We show that genetic variation closely mirrors geography with a clear pattern of isolation-by-distance. Genome-wide analyses for genotype-environment associations (GEAs) identify relatively few potentially adaptive variants after correcting for an overwhelming signal of statistically significant but non-causal GEAs. We characterize the single high confidence genomic region and pinpoint a candidate gene possibly involved in winter temperature adaptation via modulation of spring phenology. Surprisingly, allelic variation at this locus does not result in any apparent fitness differences in a common garden. More generally, reciprocal transplant experiments across large climate distances suggest extensive phenotypic plasticity. Nevertheless, we find indications of polygenic adaptation which may be essential in natural ecosystems. This polygenic signal exhibits broad- and fine-scale variation across the landscape, highlighting the relevance of spatial resolution. In summary, our results emphasize the importance, but also exemplify the complexity, of employing natural genetic variation for forest conservation under climate change.

Integrating both restoration and regeneration potentials into real-world forest restoration planning: A case study of Hong Kong

Forest restoration is a vital nature-based solution for mitigating climate change and land degradation. To ensure restoration effectiveness, the costs and benefits of alternative restoration strategies (i.e., active restoration vs. natural regeneration) need to be evaluated. Existing studies generally focus on maximum restoration potential, neglecting the recovery potential achievable through natural regeneration processes, leading to incomplete understanding of the true benefits and doubts about the necessity of active restoration. In this study, we introduce a multi-stage framework incorporating both restoration and regeneration potential into prioritized planning for ecosystem restoration. We used the vegetated landscape of Hong Kong (covering 728 km2) as our study system due to its comprehensive fine-resolution data and unique history of vegetation recovery, making it an ideal candidate to demonstrate the importance of this concept and inspire further research. We analyzed vegetation recovery status (i.e., recovering, degrading, and stable) over the past decade based on the canopy height data derived from multi-temporal airborne LiDAR. We assessed natural regeneration potential and maximum restoration potential separately, producing spatially-explicit predictions. Our results show that 44.9% of Hong Kong's vegetated area has showed evidence of recovery, but remaining gains through natural regeneration are limited, constituting around 4% of what could be attained through active restoration. We further estimated restoration priority by maximizing the restoration gain. When prioritizing 5% of degraded areas, the increment in canopy height could be up to 10.9%. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of integrating both restoration and regeneration potential into restoration planning. The proposed framework can aid policymakers and land managers in optimizing forest restoration options and promoting the protection and recovery of fragile ecosystems.

A global dataset of forest regrowth following wildfires

Wildfires result in forest loss or degradation and release substantial emissions into the atmosphere. Forest regrowth following these fires allows for ecosystem repair and carbon replenishment. However, there is a lack of datasets explicitly characterizing the forest regrowth after fires. Here we employed multiple remotely sensed datasets to generate the first global maps of forest structure regrowth including forest height, aboveground biomass (AGB), leaf area index (LAI), and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) following wildfires at a 30 m spatial resolution. The regrowth index for each structural parameter includes regrowth ratio and rate at 5-year intervals, primarily from 2000 to 2020. The dataset developed in this study provides detailed insights into the characteristics of global forest regrowth following forest fires in both spatial and temporal dimensions, contributing to the assessment of forest ecology equilibrium and the quantification of forest carbon dynamics.

Carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus contents and their ecological stoichiometric characteristics in leaf litter from the Jianfengling Tropical Montane Rainforest

Investigating carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) contents and ecological stoichiometric characteristics in leaf litter from tropical rainforests is crucial for elucidating nutrient cycling and energy flow in forest ecosystems. In this study, a 60-ha tropical montane rainforest dynamic monitoring plot in Jianfengling, was selected as the research site and 60 subplots were selected for detailed study. Leaf litter was collected monthly throughout 2016, branches of similar height were placed atthe four corners of each sample square to support a nylon cloth (1 m× 1 m) with 1 mm apertures. The collected plant leaves were sorted,placed into envelopes, labelled, and transported to the laboratory and samples from various plant species were identified, resulting in a total of 107 samples collected and analyzed. For the 31 dominant species, the leaf litter had C, N and P contents of 312.71 ± 28.42, 4.95 ± 0.46 and 0.40 ± 0.03 g/kg, respectively. The C:N, C:P and N:P ratios were 63.61 ± 7.50, 790.91 ± 82.30 and 12.49 ± 1.00, respectively, indicating moderate variability. The C, N and P contents exhibited greater variability among the plant groups, indicating significant heterogeneity among the samples. In contrast, the data from the subplots exhibited less variability, highlighting significant homogeneity. Overall, the mean carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus contents in the leaf litter from tropical montane rainforests were lower than those observed at national and global scales. The N:P ratios in leaf litter below 14 indicated that nitrogen limited litter decomposition in Jianfengling. However, no significant correlations were observed between the C, N and P contents and their stoichiometric ratios in leaf litter and those in soil. The above results provide important reference data and scientific basis for the nutrient cycling and energy flow processes, and in the future, we can explore the limiting role and mechanism of nitrogen in the decomposition process of leaf litter.

Optimizing restoration: A holistic spatial approach to deliver Nature's Contributions to People with minimal tradeoffs and maximal equity

Ecosystem restoration is inherently a complex activity with inevitable tradeoffs in environmental and societal outcomes. These tradeoffs can potentially be large when policies and practices are focused on single outcomes versus joint achievement of multiple outcomes. Few studies have assessed the tradeoffs in Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and the distributional equity of NCP from forest restoration strategies. Here, we optimized a defined forest restoration area across India with systematic conservation planning to assess the tradeoffs between three NCP: i) climate change mitigation NCP, ii) biodiversity value NCP (habitat created for forest-dependent mammals), and iii) societal NCP (human direct use of restored forests for livelihoods, housing construction material, and energy). We show that restoration plans aimed at a single-NCP tend not to deliver other NCP outcomes efficiently. In contrast, integrated spatial forest restoration plans aimed at achievement of multiple outcomes deliver on average 83.3% (43.2 to 100%) of climate change mitigation NCP, 89.9% (63.8 to 100%) of biodiversity value NCP, and 93.9% (64.5 to 100%) of societal NCP delivered by single-objective plans. Integrated plans deliver NCP more evenly across the restoration area when compared to other plans that identify certain regions such as the Western Ghats and north-eastern India. Last, 38 to 41% of the people impacted by integrated spatial plans belong to socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, greater than their overall representation in India's population. Moving ahead, effective policy design and evaluation integrating ecosystem protection and restoration strategies can benefit from the blueprint we provide in this study for India.

A large net carbon loss attributed to anthropogenic and natural disturbances in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

The Amazon forest contains globally important carbon stocks, but in recent years, atmospheric measurements suggest that it has been releasing more carbon than it has absorbed because of deforestation and forest degradation. Accurately attributing the sources of carbon loss to forest degradation and natural disturbances remains a challenge because of the difficulty of classifying disturbances and simultaneously estimating carbon changes. We used a unique, randomized, repeated, very high-resolution airborne laser scanning survey to provide a direct, detailed, and high-resolution partitioning of aboveground carbon gains and losses in the Brazilian Arc of Deforestation. Our analysis revealed that disturbances directly attributed to human activity impacted 4.2% of the survey area while windthrows and other disturbances affected 2.7% and 14.7%, respectively. Extrapolating the lidar-based statistics to the study area (544,300 km2), we found that 24.1, 24.2, and 14.5 Tg C y-1 were lost through clearing, fires, and logging, respectively. The losses due to large windthrows (21.5 Tg C y-1) and other disturbances (50.3 Tg C y-1) were partially counterbalanced by forest growth (44.1 Tg C y-1). Our high-resolution estimates demonstrated a greater loss of carbon through forest degradation than through deforestation and a net loss of carbon of 90.5 ± 16.6 Tg C y-1 for the study region attributable to both anthropogenic and natural processes. This study highlights the role of forest degradation in the carbon balance for this critical region in the Earth system.

Unique Hierarchically Structured High-Entropy Alloys with Multiple Adsorption Sites for Rechargeable Li-CO2 Batteries with High Capacity

Lithium-carbon dioxide (Li-CO2) batteries offer the possibility of synchronous implementation of carbon neutrality and the development of advanced energy storage devices. The exploration of low-cost and efficient cathode catalysts is key to the improvement of Li-CO2 batteries. Herein, high-entropy alloys (HEAs)@C hierarchical nanosheet is synthesized from the simulation of the recycling solution of waste batteries to construct a cathode for the first time. Owing to the excellent electrical conductivity of the carbon material, the unique high-entropy effect of the HEAs, and the large number of catalytically active sites exposed by the hierarchical structure, the FeCoNiMnCuAl@C-based battery exhibits a superior discharge capability of 27664 mAh g-1 and outstanding durability of 134 cycles as well as low overpotential with 1.05 V at a discharge/recharge rate of 100 mA g-1. The adsorption capacity of different sites on the HEAs is deeply understood through density functional theory calculations combined with experiments. This work opens up the application of HEAs in Li-CO2 batteries catalytic cathodes and provides unique insights into the study of adsorption active sites in HEAs.

Maximizing tree carbon in croplands and grazing lands while sustaining yields

BACKGROUND

Integrating trees into agricultural landscapes can provide climate mitigation and improves soil fertility, biodiversity habitat, water quality, water flow, and human health, but these benefits must be achieved without reducing agriculture yields. Prior estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal potential from increasing tree cover in agriculture assumed a moderate level of woody biomass can be integrated without reducing agricultural production. Instead, we used a Delphi expert elicitation to estimate maximum tree covers for 53 regional cropping and grazing system categories while safeguarding agricultural yields. Comparing these values to baselines and applying spatially explicit tree carbon accumulation rates, we develop global maps of the additional CO2 removal potential of Tree Cover in Agriculture. We present here the first global spatially explicit datasets calibrated to regional grazing and croplands, estimating opportunities to increase tree cover without reducing yields, therefore avoiding a major cost barrier to restoration: the opportunity cost of CO2 removal at the expense of agriculture yields.

RESULTS

The global estimated maximum technical CO2 removal potential is split between croplands (1.86 PgCO2 yr- 1) and grazing lands (1.45 PgCO2 yr- 1), with large variances. Tropical/subtropical biomes account for 54% of cropland (2.82 MgCO2 ha- 1 yr- 1, SD = 0.45) and 73% of grazing land potential (1.54 MgCO2 ha- 1 yr- 1, SD = 0.47). Potentials seem to be driven by two characteristics: the opportunity for increase in tree cover and bioclimatic factors affecting CO2 removal rates.

CONCLUSIONS

We find that increasing tree cover in 2.6 billion hectares of agricultural landscapes may remove up to 3.3 billion tons of CO2 per year - more than the global annual emissions from cars. These Natural Climate Solutions could achieve the Bonn Challenge and add 793 million trees to agricultural landscapes. This is significant for global climate mitigation efforts because it represents a large, relatively inexpensive, additional CO2 removal opportunity that works within agricultural landscapes and has low economic and social barriers to rapid global scaling. There is an urgent need for policy and incentive systems to encourage the adoption of these practices.

Greenhouse gases emissions and global climate change: Examining the influence of CO2, CH4, and N2O

An in-depth analysis of the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in climate change is examined here along with their diverse sources, including the combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture, and industrial processes. Key GHG components such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are considered, along with data on emissions across various economic sectors. The consequences of climate change are also highlighted, ranging from more frequent and intense extreme weather events to rising sea levels and impacts on ecosystems and human health. The industrial revolution and unrestricted use of fossil fuels are key factors leading to an increase in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Global efforts to reduce emissions are considered, starting with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and culminating in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The limited effectiveness of early initiatives is underscored, emphasizing the significant importance of the Paris Agreement that provides a global framework for establishing goals to reduce GHG emissions by country. The Green Climate Fund and other international financial mechanisms are also considered as essential tools for financing sustainable projects in developing countries. The global community faces the challenge and necessity for more ambitious efforts to achieve the set goals for reducing GHG emissions. Successful strategies are examined by Sweden, Costa Rica, and Denmark to achieve zero GHG emissions that integrate renewable energy sources and technologies. The importance of global cooperation for creating a sustainable future is also emphasized.

Global atmospheric methane uptake by upland tree woody surfaces

Methane is an important greenhouse gas1, but the role of trees in the methane budget remains uncertain2. Although it has been shown that wetland and some upland trees can emit soil-derived methane at the stem base3,4, it has also been suggested that upland trees can serve as a net sink for atmospheric methane5,6. Here we examine in situ woody surface methane exchange of upland tropical, temperate and boreal forest trees. We find that methane uptake on woody surfaces, in particular at and above about 2 m above the forest floor, can dominate the net ecosystem contribution of trees, resulting in a net tree methane sink. Stable carbon isotope measurement of methane in woody surface chamber air and process-level investigations on extracted wood cores are consistent with methanotrophy, suggesting a microbially mediated drawdown of methane on and in tree woody surfaces and tissues. By applying terrestrial laser scanning-derived allometry to quantify global forest tree woody surface area, a preliminary first estimate suggests that trees may contribute 24.6-49.9 Tg of atmospheric methane uptake globally. Our findings indicate that the climate benefits of tropical and temperate forest protection and reforestation may be greater than previously assumed.

Utilities of environmental radioactivity tracers in assessing sequestration potential of carbon in the coastal wetland ecosystems

Demand for accurate estimation of coastal blue carbon sequestration rates in a regular interval has recently surged due to the increasing awareness of nature-based climate solutions to alleviate adverse impacts stemming from the recent global warming. The robust estimation method is, however, far from well-established. The international community requires, moreover, to quantify its effect of "management." This article tries to provide the environmental isotope community with basic biophysical features of coastal blue carbon ecosystems to identify a suitable set of environmental isotopes for promoting coastal ocean-based climate solutions. This article reviews (i) the primary biophysical characteristics of coastal blue carbon ecosystems and hydrology, (ii) their consequential impact on the accumulation and preservation of organic carbon (OC) in the sediment column, (iii) suitable environmental isotopes to quantifying the sedimentary organic carbon accumulation, outwelling of the carbon-containing byproducts of decomposition of biogenic organic matter and acid neutralizing alkalinity produced in situ sediment to the offshore. Above-ground biomass is not cumulative over the years except for mangrove forests within coastal blue carbon systems. Non-gaseous carbon sequestration and loss occur mainly as a form of sediment organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved carbon in an intertidal and subtidal bottom sediment body in a slow, patchy, and dispersive way, on which this article focuses. Investigating environmental radionuclides is probably the most cost-effective effort to contribute to defining the offshore spatial extent of coastal blue carbon systems except for seagrass beds (e.g., Ra isotopes), to quantify millimeter per year scale carbon accretion and loss within the systems (e.g., 7Be, 210Pb) and a liter per meter of coastline per a day scale water movement from the systems (Ra isotopes). A millimeter-scale spatial and an annual (or less) time-scale resolution offered by the use of environmental isotopes would equip us with a novel tool to enhance the carbon storage capacity of the coastal blue carbon system.

The enduring world forest carbon sink

The uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by terrestrial ecosystems is critical for moderating climate change1. To provide a ground-based long-term assessment of the contribution of forests to terrestrial CO2 uptake, we synthesized in situ forest data from boreal, temperate and tropical biomes spanning three decades. We found that the carbon sink in global forests was steady, at 3.6 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1990s and 2000s, and 3.5 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 2010s. Despite this global stability, our analysis revealed some major biome-level changes. Carbon sinks have increased in temperate (+30 ± 5%) and tropical regrowth (+29 ± 8%) forests owing to increases in forest area, but they decreased in boreal (-36 ± 6%) and tropical intact (-31 ± 7%) forests, as a result of intensified disturbances and losses in intact forest area, respectively. Mass-balance studies indicate that the global land carbon sink has increased2, implying an increase in the non-forest-land carbon sink. The global forest sink is equivalent to almost half of fossil-fuel emissions (7.8 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in 1990-2019). However, two-thirds of the benefit from the sink has been negated by tropical deforestation (2.2 ± 0.5 Pg C yr-1 in 1990-2019). Although the global forest sink has endured undiminished for three decades, despite regional variations, it could be weakened by ageing forests, continuing deforestation and further intensification of disturbance regimes1. To protect the carbon sink, land management policies are needed to limit deforestation, promote forest restoration and improve timber-harvesting practices1,3.

Organic carbon accumulation in British saltmarshes

Saltmarshes are a crucial component of the coastal carbon (C) system and provide a natural climate regulation service through the accumulation and long-term storage of organic carbon (OC) in their soils. These coastal ecosystems are under growing pressure from a changing climate and increasing anthropogenic disturbance. To manage and protect these ecosystems for C and to allow their inclusion in emissions and natural-capital accounting, as well as carbon markets, accurate and reliable estimates of OC accumulation are required. However, globally, such data are rare or of varying quality. Here, we quantify sedimentation rates and OC densities for 21 saltmarshes in Great Britain (GB). We estimate that, on average, saltmarshes accumulate OC at a rate of 110.88 ± 43.12 g C m-2 yr-1. This is considerably less than widely applied global saltmarsh averages. It is therefore highly likely that the contribution of northern European saltmarshes to global saltmarsh OC accumulation has been significantly overestimated. Taking account of the climatic, geomorphological, oceanographic, and ecological characteristics of all GB saltmarshes and the areal extent of different saltmarsh zones, we estimate that the 451.65 km2 of GB saltmarsh accumulates 46,563 ± 4353 t of OC annually. These low OC accumulation rates underline the importance of the 5.20 ± 0.65 million tonnes of OC already stored in these vulnerable coastal ecosystems. Going forward the protection and preservation of the existing stores of OC in GB saltmarshes must be a priority for the UK as this will provide climate benefits through avoided emissions several times more significant than the annual accumulation of OC in these ecosystems.

Climate change market-driven poleward shifts in cropland production create opportunities for tropical biodiversity conservation and habitat restoration

Although the impacts of climate change on the yields of crops have been studied, how these changes will result in the eventual realized crop production through market feedbacks has received little attention. Using a combination of attainable yield predictions for wheat, rice, maize, soybean and sugarcane, computable general equilibrium and land rent models, we project market impacts and crop-specific land-use change up to 2100 and the resulting implications for carbon and biodiversity. The results show a general increase in crop prices in tropical regions and a decrease in sub-tropical and temperate regions. Land-use change driven by market feedbacks generally amplify the effects of climate change on yields. Wheat, maize and sugarcane are projected to experience the most expansion especially in Canada and Russia, which also present the highest potential for habitat conversion-driven carbon emissions. Conversely, Latin America presents the highest extinction potential for birds, mammals and amphibians due to cropland expansion. Climate change is likely to redistribute agricultural production, generating market-driven land-use feedback effects which could, counterintuitively, protect global biodiversity by shifting global food production towards less-biodiverse temperate regions while creating substantial restoration opportunities in the tropics.

Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management

Forest carbon sequestration capacity in China remains uncertain due to underrepresented tree demographic dynamics and overlooked of harvest impacts. In this study, we employ a process-based biogeochemical model to make projections by using national forest inventories, covering approximately 415,000 permanent plots, revealing an expansion in biomass carbon stock by 13.6 ± 1.5 Pg C from 2020 to 2100, with additional sink through augmentation of wood product pool (0.6-2.0 Pg C) and spatiotemporal optimization of forest management (2.3 ± 0.03 Pg C). We find that statistical model might cause large bias in long-term projection due to underrepresentation or neglect of wood harvest and forest demographic changes. Remarkably, disregarding the repercussions of harvesting on forest age can result in a premature shift in the timing of the carbon sink peak by 1-3 decades. Our findings emphasize the pressing necessity for the swift implementation of optimal forest management strategies for carbon sequestration enhancement.

A meta-analysis reveals increases in soil organic carbon following the restoration and recovery of croplands in Southwest China

In China, the Grain for Green Program (GGP) is an ambitious project to convert croplands into natural vegetation, but exactly how changes in vegetation translate into changes in soil organic carbon remains less clear. Here we conducted a meta-analysis using 734 observations to explore the effects of land recovery on soil organic carbon and nutrients in four provinces in Southwest China. Following GGP, the soil organic carbon content (SOCc) and soil organic carbon stock (SOCs) increased by 33.73% and 22.39%, respectively, compared with the surrounding croplands. Similarly, soil nitrogen increased, while phosphorus decreased. Outcomes were heterogeneous, but depended on variations in soil and environmental characteristics. Both the regional land use and cover change indicated by the landscape type transfer matrix and net primary production from 2000 to 2020 further confirmed that the GGP promoted the forest area and regional mean net primary production. Our findings suggest that the GGP could enhance soil and vegetation carbon sequestration in Southwest China and help to develop a carbon-neutral strategy.

Accounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration

Restoring tree cover changes albedo, which is the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface. In most locations, these changes in albedo offset or even negate the carbon removal benefits with the latter leading to global warming. Previous efforts to quantify the global climate mitigation benefit of restoring tree cover have not accounted robustly for albedo given a lack of spatially explicit data. Here we produce maps that show that carbon-only estimates may be up to 81% too high. While dryland and boreal settings have especially severe albedo offsets, it is possible to find places that provide net-positive climate mitigation benefits in all biomes. We further find that on-the-ground projects are concentrated in these more climate-positive locations, but that the majority still face at least a 20% albedo offset. Thus, strategically deploying restoration of tree cover for maximum climate benefit requires accounting for albedo change and we provide the tools to do so.

Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH3), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems1-5. However, estimating global NH3 emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy4,5. Here we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH3 emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH3 emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr-1, lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices6-9. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH3 emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr-1) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH3 emissions reductions of 47% (44-56%) for rice, 27% (24-28%) for maize and 26% (20-28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH3 emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1-2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5-8.5 by 2030-2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

Is tree planting an effective strategy for climate change mitigation?

The world's forests store large amounts of carbon (C), and growing forests can reduce atmospheric CO2 by storing C in their biomass. This has provided the impetus for world-wide tree planting initiatives to offset fossil-fuel emissions. However, forests interact with their environment in complex and multifaceted ways that must be considered for a balanced assessment of the value of planting trees. First, one needs to consider the potential reversibility of C sequestration in trees through either harvesting or tree death from natural factors. If carbon storage is only temporary, future temperatures will actually be higher than without tree plantings, but cumulative warming will be reduced, contributing both positively and negatively to future climate-change impacts. Alternatively, forests could be used for bioenergy or wood products to replace fossil-fuel use which would obviate the need to consider the possible reversibility of any benefits. Forests also affect the Earth's energy balance through either absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation. As forests generally absorb more incoming radiation than bare ground or grasslands, this constitutes an important warming effect that substantially reduces the benefit of C storage, especially in snow-covered regions. Forests also affect other local ecosystem services, such as conserving biodiversity, modifying water and nutrient cycles, and preventing erosion that could be either beneficial or harmful depending on specific circumstances. Considering all these factors, tree plantings may be beneficial or detrimental for mitigating climate-change impacts, but the range of possibilities makes generalisations difficult. Their net benefit depends on many factors that differ between specific circumstances. One can, therefore, neither uncritically endorse tree planting everywhere, nor condemn it as counter-productive. Our aim is to provide key information to enable appropriate assessments to be made under specific circumstances. We conclude our discussion by providing a step-by-step guide for assessing the merit of tree plantings under specific circumstances.

Forest carbon removal potential and sustainable development in Japan

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change and reducing emissions as a major carbon sink. However, its value in removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere is always underestimated in natural capital (NC) accounting and sustainability assessments. This study predicted Japan's forest CO2 removal by afforestation and forest management and its monetary value until 2042 from national to gridded level, with statistical data and complementary satellite data products, and explored how that CO2 removal will contribute to sustainable development under the inclusive wealth (IW) framework. The results show that: (1) the annual CO2 removal by forests has the potential to offset 15.3% of the emission and increase NC by 6.8% in Japan, significantly contributing to carbon neutrality and IW growth; (2) the total CO2 removal in exiting forests will peak at around 2030 and then decrease, but expanding afforestation could offset that decrease in later years; (3) the spatial distribution patterns of IW and forest CO2 removal are opposite. This indicates a national carbon trading market could create new wealth for rural communities where vast forests exist, and then effectively balance the inequal urban-rural development in Japan. The explicit spatial information of this study could provide valuable information for differentiating policy priorities of forestry planning and sustainable development in different local communities.

A global synthesis and conceptualization of the magnitude and duration of soil carbon losses in response to forest disturbances

Aim

Forest disturbances are increasing around the globe due to changes in climate and management, deteriorating forests' carbon sink strength. Estimates of global forest carbon budgets account for losses of plant biomass but often neglect the effects of disturbances on soil organic carbon (SOC). Here, we aimed to quantify and conceptualize SOC losses in response to different disturbance agents on a global scale.

Location

Global.

Time Period

1983-2022.

Major Taxa Studied

Forest soils.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive global analysis of the effects of harvesting, wildfires, windstorms and insect infestations on forest SOC stocks in the surface organic layer and top mineral soil, synthesizing 927 paired observations from 151 existing field studies worldwide. We further used global mapping to assess potential SOC losses upon disturbance.

Results

We found that both natural and anthropogenic forest disturbances can cause large SOC losses up to 60 Mg ha-1. On average, the largest SOC losses were found after wildfires, followed by disturbances from windstorms, harvests and insects. However, initial carbon stock size, rather than disturbance agent, had the strongest influence on the magnitude of SOC losses. SOC losses were greatest in cold-climate forests (boreal and mountainous regions) with large accumulations of organic matter on or near the soil surface. Negative effects are present for at least four decades post-disturbance. In contrast, forests with small initial SOC stocks experienced quantitatively lower carbon losses, and their stocks returned to pre-disturbance levels more quickly.

Main Conclusions

Our results indicate that the more carbon is stored in the forest's organic layers and top mineral soils, the more carbon will be lost after disturbance. Robust estimates of forest carbon budgets must therefore consider disturbance-induced SOC losses, which strongly depend on site-specific stocks. Particularly in cold-climate forests, these disturbance-related losses may challenge forest management efforts to sequester CO2.

Can natural forest expansion contribute to Europe's restoration policy agenda? An interdisciplinary assessment

Natural forest expansion (NFE), that is, the establishment of secondary forest on non-forested land through natural succession, has substantially contributed to the widespread expansion of forests in Europe over the last few decades. So far, EU policies have largely neglected the potential of NFE for meeting policy objectives on restoration. Synthesising recent interdisciplinary research, this paper assesses the challenges and opportunities of NFE in view of contributing to European forest and ecosystem restoration. Specifically, we discuss the potential for supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and forestry and economic use, summarize the current knowledge about societal perceptions and the policymaking on NFE, and make policy recommendations to better use the potential of NFE. We conclude that NFE has the potential to contribute to the European restoration policy agenda if local contexts and possible trade-offs are properly considered.

Improving climate and biodiversity outcomes through restoration of forest integrity

Targeting degraded areas in forested landscapes for restoration could deliver rapid climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation, improve resilience of forested lands to future climate change, and potentially reduce the trade-offs between nature recovery and agriculture. Although the importance of forest restoration for climate mitigation is acknowledged, current estimates of its climate mitigation potential may be underestimated because they focus predominantly on reforesting cleared areas. We built on recent analyses of forest integrity and unrealized forest biomass potential to examine the potential for restoring the integrity of degraded forests. There are over 1.5 billion ha of forests worldwide that retain 50-80% of their potential biomass. Prioritizing restoration in these areas could deliver rapid biodiversity and climate mitigation benefits, relative to restoring forest on cleared land. We applied a spatial planning approach to demonstrate how restoration interventions can be targeted to support the conservation of high-integrity forest, a potential pathway to the delivery of the 30×30 goal of the Convention on Biodiversity's Global Biodiversity Framework.

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency

BACKGROUND

The application of different approaches calculating the anthropogenic carbon net flux from land, leads to estimates that vary considerably. One reason for these variations is the extent to which approaches consider forest land to be "managed" by humans, and thus contributing to the net anthropogenic flux. Global Earth Observation (EO) datasets characterising spatio-temporal changes in land cover and carbon stocks provide an independent and consistent approach to estimate forest carbon fluxes. These can be compared against results reported in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) to support accurate and timely measuring, reporting and verification (MRV). Using Brazil as a primary case study, with additional analysis in Indonesia and Malaysia, we compare a Global EO-based dataset of forest carbon fluxes to results reported in NGHGIs.

RESULTS

Between 2001 and 2020, the EO-derived estimates of all forest-related emissions and removals indicate that Brazil was a net sink of carbon (- 0.2 GtCO2yr-1), while Brazil's NGHGI reported a net carbon source (+ 0.8 GtCO2yr-1). After adjusting the EO estimate to use the Brazilian NGHGI definition of managed forest and other assumptions used in the inventory's methodology, the EO net flux became a source of + 0.6 GtCO2yr-1, comparable to the NGHGI. Remaining discrepancies are due largely to differing carbon removal factors and forest types applied in the two datasets. In Indonesia, the EO and NGHGI net flux estimates were similar (+ 0.6 GtCO2 yr-1), but in Malaysia, they differed in both magnitude and sign (NGHGI: -0.2 GtCO2 yr-1; Global EO: + 0.2 GtCO2 yr-1). Spatially explicit datasets on forest types were not publicly available for analysis from either NGHGI, limiting the possibility of detailed adjustments.

CONCLUSIONS

By adjusting the EO dataset to improve comparability with carbon fluxes estimated for managed forests in the Brazilian NGHGI, initially diverging estimates were largely reconciled and remaining differences can be explained. Despite limited spatial data available for Indonesia and Malaysia, our comparison indicated specific aspects where differing approaches may explain divergence, including uncertainties and inaccuracies. Our study highlights the importance of enhanced transparency, as set out by the Paris Agreement, to enable alignment between different approaches for independent measuring and verification.

Integrated LiDAR-supported valuation of biomass and litter in forest ecosystems. A showcase in Spain

Belowground components (biomass and soils) can stock as much carbon as the aboveground component of forest ecosystems. In this study, we present a fully-integrated assessment of the biomass budget and the three pools evaluated: aboveground (AGBD) and belowground biomass in root systems (BGBD) and litter (LD). We turned National Forest Inventory data, airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data actionable to map three biomass compartments at 25-m resolution over more than 2.7 million ha of Mediterranean forests in the South-West of Spain. We assessed distributions and balanced among the three modelled components for the entire region of Extremadura and specifically for five representative forest types. Our results showed belowground biomass and litter represent an important 61 % of the AGBD stock. Among forest types, AGBD stocks were the dominant pool in pine-dominated areas while its lowers contribution was found over sparse oak forests. The three biomass pools estimated at the same resolution were used to produce ratio-based indicators to highlight areas where the contribution of belowground biomass and litter can exceed AGBD and where carbon-sequestration and conservation practices should acknowledge belowground-oriented carbon management. The recognition and valuation of biomass and carbon stocks beyond the AGBD is a must step forward that the scientific community must support in order to properly assess living components of the ecosystem such as root systems sustaining AGBD stocks and to value carbon-oriented ecosystem services related to soil-water dynamics and soil biodiversity. This study aims at enforcing a change of paradigm in forest carbon accounting, advocating for a better recognition and broader integration of living biomass in land carbon mapping.

Protected areas reduce deforestation and degradation and enhance woody growth across African woodlands

Protected areas are increasingly promoted for their capacity to sequester carbon, alongside biodiversity benefits. However, we have limited understanding of whether they are effective at reducing deforestation and degradation, or promoting vegetation growth, and the impact that this has on changes to aboveground woody carbon stocks. Here we present a new satellite radar-based map of vegetation carbon change across southern Africa's woodlands and combine this with a matching approach to assess the effect of protected areas on carbon dynamics. We show that protection has a positive effect on aboveground carbon, with stocks increasing faster in protected areas (+0.53% per year) compared to comparable lands not under protection (+0.08% per year). The positive effect of protection reflects lower rates of deforestation (-39%) and degradation (-25%), as well as a greater prevalence of vegetation growth (+12%) inside protected lands. Areas under strict protection had similar outcomes to other types of protection after controlling for differences in location, with effect scores instead varying more by country, and the level of threat. These results highlight the potential for protected areas to sequester aboveground carbon, although we caution that in some areas this may have negative impacts on biodiversity, and human wellbeing.

Effects of soil organic carbon metabolism on electro-bioremediation of petroleum-contaminated soil

Soil organic carbon (SOC) potentially interacts with microbial metabolism and may affect the degradation of petroleum-derived carbon (PDC) in the electro-bioremediation of petroleum-contaminated soil. This study evaluated the interactions among organic carbon, soil properties, and microbial communities to explore the role of SOC during the electro-bioremediation process. The results showed that petroleum degradation exerted superposition and synergistic electrokinetic and bioremediation effects, as exemplified by the EB and EB-PR tests, owing to the maintenance and enhancement of SOC utilization (P/S value), respectively. The highest P/S value (2.0-2.4) was found in the electrochemical oxidation zone due to low SOC consumption. In the biological oxidation zones, electric stimulation enhanced the degradation of PDC and SOC, with higher average P/S values than those of the Bio test. Soil pH, Eh, inorganic ions, and bioavailable petroleum fractions were the main factors reshaping the microbial communities. SOC metabolism effectively buffered the stress of environmental factors and pollutants while maintaining functional bacterial abundance, microbial alpha diversity, and community similarity, thus saving the weakened PDC biodegradation efficiency in the EB and EB-PR tests. The study of the effect of SOC metabolism on petroleum biodegradation contributes to the development of sustainable low-carbon electro-bioremediation technology.

The neglected role of abandoned cropland in supporting both food security and climate change mitigation

Despite the looming land scarcity for agriculture, cropland abandonment is widespread globally. Abandoned cropland can be reused to support food security and climate change mitigation. Here, we investigate the potentials and trade-offs of using global abandoned cropland for recultivation and restoring forests by natural regrowth, with spatially-explicit modelling and scenario analysis. We identify 101 Mha of abandoned cropland between 1992 and 2020, with a capability of concurrently delivering 29 to 363 Peta-calories yr-1 of food production potential and 290 to 1,066 MtCO2 yr-1 of net climate change mitigation potential, depending on land-use suitability and land allocation strategies. We also show that applying spatial prioritization is key to maximizing the achievable potentials of abandoned cropland and demonstrate other possible approaches to further increase these potentials. Our findings offer timely insights into the potentials of abandoned cropland and can inform sustainable land management to buttress food security and climate goals.

Industrial fisheries have reversed the carbon sequestration by tuna carcasses into emissions

To limit climate warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels, most economic sectors will need a rapid transformation toward a net zero emission of CO2 . Tuna fisheries is a key food production sector that burns fossil fuel to operate but also reduces the deadfall of large-bodied fish so the capacity of this natural carbon pump to deep sea. Yet, the carbon balance of tuna populations, so the net difference between CO2 emission due to industrial exploitation and CO2 sequestration by fish deadfall after natural mortality, is still unknown. Here, by considering the dynamics of two main contrasting tuna species (Katsuwonus pelamis and Thunnus obesus) across the Pacific since the 1980s, we show that most tuna populations became CO2 sources instead of remaining natural sinks. Without considering the supply chain, the main factors associated with this shift are exploitation rate, transshipment intensity, fuel consumption, and climate change. Our study urges for a better global ocean stewardship, by curbing subsidies and limiting transshipment in remote international waters, to quickly rebuild most pelagic fish stocks above their target management reference points and reactivate a neglected carbon pump toward the deep sea as an additional Nature Climate Solution in our portfolio. Even if this potential carbon sequestration by surface unit may appear low compared to that of coastal ecosystems or tropical forests, the ocean covers a vast area and the sinking biomass of dead vertebrates can sequester carbon for around 1000 years in the deep sea. We also highlight the multiple co-benefits and trade-offs from engaging the industrial fisheries sector with carbon neutrality.

Sharp decline in future productivity of tropical reforestation above 29°C mean annual temperature

Tropical reforestation is among the most powerful tools for carbon sequestration. Yet, climate change impacts on productivity are often not accounted for when estimating its mitigation potential. Using the process-based forest growth model 3-PGmix, we analyzed future productivity of tropical reforestation in Central America. Around 29°C mean annual temperature, productivity sharply and consistently declined (-11% per 1°C of warming) across all tropical lowland climate zones and five tree species spanning a wide range of ecological characteristics. Under a high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), productivity of dry tropical reforestation nearly halved and tropical moist and rain forest sites showed moderate losses around 10% by the end of the century. Under SSP2-4.5, tropical moist and rain forest sites were resilient and tropical dry forest sites showed moderate losses (-17%). Increased vapor pressure deficit, caused by increasing temperatures, was the main driver of growth decline. Thus, to continue following high-emission pathways could reduce the effectiveness of reforestation as climate action tool.

N and P combined addition accelerates the release of litter C, N, and most metal nutrients in a N-rich subtropical forest

Imbalanced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) depositions are profoundly shifting terrestrial ecosystem biogeochemical processes. However, how P addition and its interaction with N addition influence the release of litter carbon (C), N, P, and especially metal nutrients in subtropical forests remains unclear. Herein, a two-year field litterbag experiment was conducted in a natural subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest of southwestern China using a factorial design with three levels of N addition (0, 10, and 20 g N m^-2 y^-1) and P addition (0, 5, 15 g P m^-2 y^-1). During two years of decomposition, N- and P-only addition treatments decreased the accumulated mass loss and release rates of litter C, N, P, K, Na, and Mn (p < 0.05); N and P coaddition treatments increased the accumulated mass loss and release rates of litter C, N, K, Na, Mn, and Cu (p < 0.05) and decreased the accumulated release rates of litter P and Mg (p < 0.05); the C/P and N/P ratios of the residual litter increased under the N-only addition treatments (p < 0.05) and decreased under the P-only addition and N and P coaddition treatments (p < 0.05). Overall, the results suggest that combined N and P supply can increase biological activities and thus accelerate the release of litter C, N, and most metal nutrients, as expected within the framework of ecological stoichiometry and growth rate hypothesis. Our study also highlights that the effect of N addition on litter C and nutrients release depends on P availability.

Cost-effective restoration for carbon sequestration across Brazil's biomes

Tropical ecosystems are central to the global focus on halting and reversing habitat destruction as a means of mitigating carbon emissions. Brazil has been highlighted as a vital part of global climate agreements because, whilst ongoing land-use change causes it to be the world's fifth biggest greenhouse gas emitting country, it also has one of the greatest potentials to implement ecosystem restoration. Global carbon markets provide the opportunity of a financially viable way to implement restoration projects at scale. However, except for rainforests, the restoration potential of many major tropical biomes is not widely recognised, with the result that carbon sequestration potential may be squandered. We synthesize data on land availability, land degradation status, restoration costs, area of native vegetation remaining, carbon storage potential and carbon market prices for 5475 municipalities across Brazil's major biomes, including the savannas and tropical dry forests. Using a modelling analysis, we determine how fast restoration could be implemented across these biomes within existing carbon markets. We argue that even with a sole focus on carbon, we must restore other tropical biomes, as well as rainforests, to effectively increase benefits. The inclusion of dry forests and savannas doubles the area which could be restored in a financially viable manner, increasing the potential CO₂e sequestered >40 % above that offered by rainforests alone. Importantly, we show that in the short-term avoiding emissions through conservation will be necessary for Brazil to achieve it's 2030 climate goal, because it can sequester 1.5 to 4.3 Pg of CO₂e by 2030, relative to 0.127 Pg CO₂e from restoration. However, in the longer term, restoration across all biomes in Brazil could draw down between 3.9 and 9.8 Pg of CO₂e from the atmosphere by 2050 and 2080.

Life-cycle assessment of yeast-based single-cell protein production with oat processing side-stream

Production of fish meal and plant-based feed proteins continues to increase to meet the growing demand for seafood, leading to impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Microbial proteins such as single-cell proteins (SCPs) have been introduced as feed alternatives since they can replace current fish feed ingredients, e.g., soybean, which are associated with negative environmental impacts. Microbial protein production also enables utilization of grain processing side-streams as feedstock sources. This study assesses the environmental impacts of yeast-based SCP using oat side-stream as feedstock (OS-SCP). Life-cycle assessment with a cradle-to-gate approach was used to quantify global warming, freshwater eutrophication, marine eutrophication, terrestrial acidification, land use, and water consumption of OS-SCP production in Finland. Dried and wet side-streams of oat were compared with each other to identify differences in energy consumption and transportation effects. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the difference in impacts at various locations and fermentation times. Benchmarking was used to evaluate the environmental impacts of OS-SCP and other feed products, including both conventional and novel protein products. Results highlight the importance of energy sources in quantifying the environmental performance of OS-SCP production. OS-SCP produced with dried side-streams resulted in higher global warming (16.3 %) and water consumption (7.5 %) than OS-SCP produced from wet side-streams, reflecting the energy and water requirements for the drying process. Compared with conventional products, such as soy protein concentrates, OS-SCP resulted in 61 % less land use, while exacerbating the environmental impacts in all the other categories. OS-SCP had more impact on global warming (205-754 %), water consumption (166-1401 %), freshwater eutrophication (118-333 %), and terrestrial acidification (85-340 %) than other novel products, including yeast protein concentrate, methanotrophic bacterial SCP, and insect meal, while lowering global warming (11 %) and freshwater eutrophication (20 %) compared with dry microalgae biomass.

Interaction between nematodes and bacteria enhances soil carbon sequestration under organic material amendments

The process of carbon (C) sequestration plays an important role in soil fertility and productivity, yet most studies have focused on the individual role of the bacterial community. However, an in-depth mechanistic understanding of how soil nematodes interact with the bacterial community to regulate soil C accumulation is still lacking. We conducted a 10-year field experiment to explore the nematode and bacterial communities and determine the influence of nematode-bacteria interactions on C mineralization, microbial metabolic quotient (qCO₂), and carbon use efficiency (CUE) under the organic material amendments, including chemical fertilizers with straw (NS), chemical fertilizers with straw and pig manure (NSM), and chemical fertilizer with straw biochar (NB). Here, our results showed the abundance of bacterial and nematode communities was significantly higher under NS, NSM, and NB treatments than under chemical fertilizers (N) treatment, with the highest abundance under the NSM treatment. The enrichment index and functional dispersion index were significantly higher under NSM treatment than under N, NS, and NB treatments, while the channel index followed the opposite pattern. Structural equation modeling indicated that the potential predation pressure induced by nematodes may improve bacterial abundance, with positive cascading effects on C sequestration. Collectively, our study highlights the functional importance of nematode-microorganism interactions in mediating C dynamics under organic material amendments.

Networking the forest infrastructure towards near real-time monitoring - A white paper

Forests account for nearly 90 % of the world's terrestrial biomass in the form of carbon and they support 80 % of the global biodiversity. To understand the underlying forest dynamics, we need a long-term but also relatively high-frequency, networked monitoring system, as traditionally used in meteorology or hydrology. While there are numerous existing forest monitoring sites, particularly in temperate regions, the resulting data streams are rarely connected and do not provide information promptly, which hampers real-time assessments of forest responses to extreme climate events. The technology to build a better global forest monitoring network now exists. This white paper addresses the key structural components needed to achieve a novel meta-network. We propose to complement - rather than replace or unify - the existing heterogeneous infrastructure with standardized, quality-assured linking methods and interacting data processing centers to create an integrated forest monitoring network. These automated (research topic-dependent) linking methods in atmosphere, biosphere, and pedosphere play a key role in scaling site-specific results and processing them in a timely manner. To ensure broad participation from existing monitoring sites and to establish new sites, these linking methods must be as informative, reliable, affordable, and maintainable as possible, and should be supplemented by near real-time remote sensing data. The proposed novel meta-network will enable the detection of emergent patterns that would not be visible from isolated analyses of individual sites. In addition, the near real-time availability of data will facilitate predictions of current forest conditions (nowcasts), which are urgently needed for research and decision making in the face of rapid climate change. We call for international and interdisciplinary efforts in this direction.

Incentives and barriers to private finance for forest and landscape restoration

Increased private finance can accelerate forest and landscape restoration globally. Here we conduct semi-structured interviews with asset managers, corporations and restoration finance experts to examine incentives and barriers to private restoration finance. Next, we assess what type of restoration projects and regions appeal to different private funders and how current financial barriers can be overcome. We show that market incentives for corporations include meeting net-emission-reduction commitments, impact and sustainable branding opportunities, and promotion of sustainability in supply chains. Conversely, asset managers face stronger barriers to investing in restoration as it is deemed a high-risk, unknown investment with low profitability. We find that investment finance biases towards restoration projects in low-risk areas and corporate finance towards areas with business presence. Both private finance types tend to omit projects focusing on natural regeneration. Through expanded and diversified markets for restoration benefits, strong public policy support and new financial instruments, private finance for restoration can be scaled for a wider variety of restoration projects in more diverse geographical contexts.

Quantifying the Effect Size of Management Actions on Aboveground Carbon Stocks in Forest Plantations

Purpose of the Review

Improved forest management is a promising avenue for climate change mitigation. However, we lack synthetic understanding of how different management actions impact aboveground carbon stocks, particularly at scales relevant for designing and implementing forest-based climate solutions. Here, we quantitatively assess and review the impacts of three common practices-application of inorganic NPK fertilizer, interplanting with N-fixing species, and thinning-on aboveground carbon stocks in plantation forests.

Recent Findings

Site-level empirical studies show both positive and negative effects of inorganic fertilization, interplanting, and thinning on aboveground carbon stocks in plantation forests. Recent findings and the results of our analysis suggest that these effects are heavily moderated by factors such as species selection, precipitation, time since practice, soil moisture regime, and previous land use. Interplanting of N-fixing crops initially has no effect on carbon storage in main tree crops, but the effect becomes positive in older stands. Conversely, the application of NPK fertilizers increases aboveground carbon stocks, though the effect lessens with time. Moreover, increases in aboveground carbon stocks may be partially or completely offset by emissions from the application of inorganic fertilizer. Thinning results in a strong reduction of aboveground carbon stocks, though the effect lessens with time.

Summary

Management practices tend to have strong directional effects on aboveground carbon stocks in plantation forests but are moderated by site-specific management, climatic, and edaphic factors. The effect sizes quantified in our meta-analysis can serve as benchmarks for the design and scoping of improved forest management projects as forest-based climate solutions. Overall, management actions can enhance the climate mitigation potential of plantation forests, if performed with sufficient attention to the nuances of local conditions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40725-023-00182-5.

Estimating divergent forest carbon stocks and sinks via a knife set approach

Forest carbon stocks and sinks (CSSs) have been widely estimated using climate classification tables and linear regression (LR) models with common independent variables (IVs) such as the average diameter at breast height (DBH) of stems and root shoot ratio. However, this approach is relatively ineffective when the explanatory power of IVs is lower than that of unobservable variables. Various environmental and anthropogenic factors affect target variables that cause the correlation between them to be chaotic. Here, we designed a knife set (KS) approach combining LR models and the wandering through random forests (WTF) algorithm and applied it in a specific case of Phyllostachys edulis (Carrière) J. Houz. (P. edulis) forests, which have an irregular relationship between their belowground carbon (BGC) stocks and average DBH. We then validated the KS approach performed by cluster computing to estimate the aboveground carbon (AGC) and BGC stocks and the total net primary production (TNPP). The estimated CSSs were compared to the benchmark of the methodology that applied Tier 1 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories via 10-fold cross validation, and the KS approach significantly increased precision and accuracy of estimations. Our approach provides general insights to accurately estimate forest CSSs relying on evidence-based field data, even if some target variables are divergent in specific forest types. We also pointed out the reason why current fancy models containing machine learning (ML) or deep learning algorithms are not effective in predicting the target variables of certain chaotic systems is perhaps that the total explanatory power of observable variables is less than that of the total unobservable variables. Quantifying unobservable variables into observable variables is a linchpin of future works related to chaotic system estimation.

The carbon sink of secondary and degraded humid tropical forests

The globally important carbon sink of intact, old-growth tropical humid forests is declining because of climate change, deforestation and degradation from fire and logging^1-3. Recovering tropical secondary and degraded forests now cover about 10% of the tropical forest area⁴, but how much carbon they accumulate remains uncertain. Here we quantify the aboveground carbon (AGC) sink of recovering forests across three main continuous tropical humid regions: the Amazon, Borneo and Central Africa^5,6. On the basis of satellite data products^4,7, our analysis encompasses the heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns of growth in degraded and secondary forests, influenced by key environmental and anthropogenic drivers. In the first 20 years of recovery, regrowth rates in Borneo were up to 45% and 58% higher than in Central Africa and the Amazon, respectively. This is due to variables such as temperature, water deficit and disturbance regimes. We find that regrowing degraded and secondary forests accumulated 107 Tg C year^-1 (90-130 Tg C year^-1) between 1984 and 2018, counterbalancing 26% (21-34%) of carbon emissions from humid tropical forest loss during the same period. Protecting old-growth forests is therefore a priority. Furthermore, we estimate that conserving recovering degraded and secondary forests can have a feasible future carbon sink potential of 53 Tg C year^-1 (44-62 Tg C year^-1) across the main tropical regions studied.

Declining Amazon biomass due to deforestation and subsequent degradation losses exceeding gains

In the Amazon, deforestation and climate change lead to increased vulnerability to forest degradation, threatening its existing carbon stocks and its capacity as a carbon sink. We use satellite L-Band Vegetation Optical Depth (L-VOD) data that provide an integrated (top-down) estimate of biomass carbon to track changes over 2011-2019. Because the spatial resolution of L-VOD is coarse (0.25°), it allows limited attribution of the observed changes. We therefore combined high-resolution annual maps of forest cover and disturbances with biomass maps to model carbon losses (bottom-up) from deforestation and degradation, and gains from regrowing secondary forests. We show an increase of deforestation and associated degradation losses since 2012 which greatly outweigh secondary forest gains. Degradation accounted for 40% of gross losses. After an increase in 2011, old-growth forests show a net loss of above-ground carbon between 2012 and 2019. The sum of component carbon fluxes in our model is consistent with the total biomass change from L-VOD of 1.3 Pg C over 2012-2019. Across nine Amazon countries, we found that while Brazil contains the majority of biomass stocks (64%), its losses from disturbances were disproportionately high (79% of gross losses). Our multi-source analysis provides a pessimistic assessment of the Amazon carbon balance and highlights the urgent need to stop the recent rise of deforestation and degradation, particularly in the Brazilian Amazon.