Alcohol intake and cardiovascular risk factors: A Mendelian randomisation study

Genome-wide association studies in a large Korean cohort identify novel quantitative trait loci for 36 traits and illuminates their genetic architectures

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been predominantly conducted in populations of European ancestry, limiting opportunities for biological discovery in diverse populations. We report GWAS findings from 153,950 individuals across 36 quantitative traits in the Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II (KCPS2) Biobank. We discovered 616 novel genetic loci in KCPS2, including an association between thyroid-stimulating hormone and CD36. Meta-analysis with the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, Biobank Japan, Taiwan Biobank, and UK Biobank identified 3,524 loci that were not significant in any contributing GWAS. We describe differences in genetic architectures across these East Asian and European samples. We also highlight East Asian specific associations, including a known pleiotropic missense variant in ALDH2, which fine-mapping identified as a likely causal variant for a diverse set of traits. Our findings provide insights into the genetic architecture of complex traits in East Asian populations and highlight how broadening the population diversity of GWAS samples can aid discovery.

A burden of proof study on alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease

Cohort and case-control data have suggested an association between low to moderate alcohol consumption and decreased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet results from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies designed to reduce bias have shown either no or a harmful association. Here we conducted an updated systematic review and re-evaluated existing cohort, case-control, and MR data using the burden of proof meta-analytical framework. Cohort and case-control data show low to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with decreased IHD risk - specifically, intake is inversely related to IHD and myocardial infarction morbidity in both sexes and IHD mortality in males - while pooled MR data show no association, confirming that self-reported versus genetically predicted alcohol use data yield conflicting findings about the alcohol-IHD relationship. Our results highlight the need to advance MR methodologies and emulate randomized trials using large observational databases to obtain more definitive answers to this critical public health question.

Addressing causal relationship between drinking behavior and metabolic syndrome: one-sample Mendelian randomization analysis

AIMS

Alcohol drinking is associated with central obesity, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia, which further causes metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, prior epidemiological studies on such associations lack experimental evidence for a causal relationship. This study aims to explore the causal relationship between drinking behavior and MetS in Taiwan population by using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted using the Taiwan Biobank database, which comprised 50 640 Han Chinese who were 30-70 years old without cancer from 2008 to 2020. In MR analysis, we constructed weighted and unweighted genetic risk scores by calculating SNP alleles significantly associated with alcohol drinking. We calculated odds ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI) by using a two-stage regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 50 640 participants were included with a mean age of 49.5 years (SD: 1.67 years), 36.6% were men. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of MetS per 5% increase in the likelihood of genetic predisposition to drink based on weighted genetic risk score with adjustment was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.12, P < .001). Analysis was also conducted by grouping the likelihood of genetic predisposition to drink based on quartiles with multivariate adjustment. Using Q1 as the reference group, the aORs of MetS for Q2, Q3, and Q4 were 1.19 (1.12, 1.27, p < .001), 1.31 (1.23, 1.40, p < .001), and 1.87 (1.75, 2.00, p < .001), respectively, for the weighted genetic risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows a modest relationship between drinking behavior and MetS by using MR analysis.

Alcohol - a scoping review for Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023

The objective of this scoping review is to evaluate the updated evidence on the consumption of alcohol and health outcomes regarded as relevant for the Nordic and Baltic countries, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality. It is based on the previous Nordic Nutrition Recommendations of 2012 and relevant papers published until 31 May 2021. Current evidence from mainly observational epidemiological studies suggests that regular, moderate alcohol consumption may confer protective effects against myocardial infarction (MI) and type 2 diabetes. Mendelian randomization analyses do not fully support these findings, possibly because these analyses may fail to identify low alcohol intake. For several cancers, it is not possible to set any safe limit. All-cause mortality is not increased with light to moderate alcohol intake in middle-aged and older adults who do not engage in binge drinking. Total abstinence is associated with the lowest risk of mortality in young adults. Observational studies on alcohol consumption are hampered by a number of inherent methodological issues such as ascertainment of alcohol intake, selection of appropriate exposure groups, and insufficient control of confounding variables, colliders, and mediators. It should also be emphasized that there is a socio-economic contribution to the alcohol-health axis with a stronger detrimental effect of alcohol in the lower social classes. The above issues contribute to the complexity of unravelling the causal web between alcohol, mediators, confounders, and health outcome.

Dietary Patterns, Food Intake and Health: New Evidence from Epidemiological and Genetic Studies

Our special issue gathered 11 articles in the field of nutritional epidemiology, some of which applied newly developed statistical methods to make causal inference [...].

Unravelling the complex causal effects of substance use behaviours on common diseases

BACKGROUND

Substance use behaviours (SUB) including smoking, alcohol consumption, and coffee intake are associated with many health outcomes. However, whether the health effects of SUB are causal remains controversial, especially for alcohol consumption and coffee intake.

METHODS

In this study, we assess 11 commonly used Mendelian Randomization (MR) methods by simulation and apply them to investigate the causal relationship between 7 SUB traits and health outcomes. We also combine stratified regression, genetic correlation, and MR analyses to investigate the dosage-dependent effects.

RESULTS

We show that smoking initiation has widespread risk effects on common diseases such as asthma, type 2 diabetes, and peripheral vascular disease. Alcohol consumption shows risk effects specifically on cardiovascular diseases, dyslipidemia, and hypertensive diseases. We find evidence of dosage-dependent effects of coffee and tea intake on common diseases (e.g., cardiovascular disease and osteoarthritis). We observe that the minor allele effect of rs4410790 (the top signal for tea intake level) is negative on heavy tea intake ( b ̂ G W A S = - 0.091 , s . e . = 0.007 , P = 4.90 × 10 - 35 ) but positive on moderate tea intake ( b ̂ G W A S = 0.034 , s . e . = 0.006 , P = 3.40 × 10 - 8 ) , compared to the non-tea-drinkers.

CONCLUSION

Our study reveals the complexity of the health effects of SUB and informs design for future studies aiming to dissect the causal relationships between behavioural traits and complex diseases.

Patterns and predictors of alcohol misuse trajectories from adolescence through early midlife

We took a multilevel developmental contextual approach and characterized trajectories of alcohol misuse from adolescence through early midlife, examined genetic and environmental contributions to individual differences in those trajectories, and identified adolescent and young adult factors associated with change in alcohol misuse. Data were from two longitudinal population-based studies. FinnTwin16 is a study of Finnish twins assessed at 16, 17, 18, 25, and 35 years (N = 5659; 52% female; 32% monozygotic). The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) is a study of adolescents from the United States, who were assessed at five time points from 1994 to 2018 (N = 18026; 50% female; 64% White, 21% Black, 4% Native American, 7% Asian, 9% Other race/ethnicity). Alcohol misuse was measured as frequency of intoxication in FinnTwin16 and frequency of binge drinking in Add Health. In both samples, trajectories of alcohol misuse were best described by a quadratic growth curve: Alcohol misuse increased across adolescence, peaked in young adulthood, and declined into early midlife. Individual differences in these trajectories were primarily explained by environmental factors. Several adolescent and young adult correlates were related to the course of alcohol misuse, including other substance use, physical and mental health, and parenthood.

Alcohol Consumption and Cerebral Small- and Large-Vessel Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

AIMS

It remains inconclusive regarding alcohol intake and stroke risk because determining risk factors depends on the specific pathogenesis of stroke. We used the variant rs671 in the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 gene (ALDH2) as an instrument to investigate the causal role of alcohol intake in cerebral small- and large-vessel diseases.

METHODS

We studied 682 men (mean age, 70.0 years), without stroke, in a cross-sectional Mendelian randomization analysis. We assessed small-vessel diseases (SVDs), which comprised lacunar infarcts, white matter hyperintensities (WMHs), and cerebral microbleeds, and large intracranial artery stenosis (ICAS) on brain magnetic resonance imaging.

RESULTS

The median (25%tiles, 75%tiles) alcohol consumption by ALDH2-rs671 inactive A allele (n=313 [45.9%]) and non-A allele (n=369 [54.1%]) carriers was 3.5 (0.0, 16.0) and 32.0 (12.9, 50.0) g/day, respectively. Non-A allele carriers had higher prevalent hypertension and lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations than A allele carriers. In age-adjusted ordinal logistic regression for graded burden, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for total SVDs, lacunar infarcts, WMHs, cerebral microbleeds, and ICAS in non-Aallele carriers were 1.46 (1.09-1.94), 1.41 (0.95-2.08), 1.39 (1.05-1.85), 1.69 (1.06-2.69), and 0.70 (0.50-0.98), respectively, compared with A allele carriers. These associations attenuated to statistical non-significance after considering covariates and amount of alcohol intake.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a positive association of alcohol consumption with risk of cerebral SVDs and its inverse association with risk of large-vessel disease through intermediaries, such as hypertension or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. These findings provide insight into potential causal mechanisms linking alcohol consumption with stroke risk.

Assessment of cognitive function and sleep-wake rhythms in community-dwelling older adults

Disruption of the circadian rhythm and sleep-wake cycles is a consequence of aging and is associated with the cognitive decline and many neurodegenerative conditions. We investigated the bedtime, wake-up time, sleep timing (midpoint between bedtime and wake-up time), and sleep timing standard deviation (SD) using the actigraphy among 80 consecutive volunteers aged ≥ 60 years. Global cognitive function and executive function of detailed cognitive domains were evaluated using the mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and Wisconsin card sorting test (WCST) and subjective daytime sleepiness was assessed using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS). The category achievement (CA), total errors (TE), perseverative errors of Nelson (PEN), non-perseverative errors (NPE), and difficulties in maintaining set (DMS) on the WCST were significantly correlated with sleep timing SD (CA: r = - 0.276, p = 0.013, TE: r = 0.311, p = 0.005, PEN: r = 0.241, p = 0.032, NPE: r = 0.250, p = 0.025, DMS: r = 0.235, p = 0.036), but not with the MMSE score. Multiple regression analyses with the stepwise forward selection method including age, ESS score, bedtime, sleep timing, and sleep timing SD, revealed that the ESS score, and sleep timing SD were significant factors related to CA on the WCST (ESS score: β = - 0.322, p = 0.004; sleep timing SD: β = - 0.250, p = 0.022). Assessment of sleep-wake rhythms, daytime sleepiness, and cognitive function using the MMSE and WCST is valuable for the prediction of cognitive decline in the geriatric population.

Mendelian Randomization as a Tool for Cardiovascular Research: A Review

Importance

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a statistical approach that has become increasingly popular in the field of cardiovascular disease research. It offers a way to infer potentially causal relationships between risk factors and outcomes using observational data, which is particularly important in cases where randomized clinical trials are not feasible or ethical. With the growing availability of large genetic data sets, MR has become a powerful and accessible tool for studying the risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

Observations

MR uses genetic variation associated with modifiable exposures or risk factors to mitigate biases that affect traditional observational study designs. The approach uses genetic variants that are randomly assigned at conception as proxies for exposure to a risk factor, mimicking a randomized clinical trial. By comparing the outcomes of individuals with different genetic variants, researchers may draw causal inferences about the effects of specific risk factors on cardiovascular disease, provided assumptions are met that address (1) the association between each genetic variant and risk factor and (2) the association of the genetic variants with confounders and (3) that the association between each genetic variant and the outcome only occurs through the risk factor. Like other observational designs, MR has limitations, which include weak instruments that are not strongly associated with the exposure of interest, linkage disequilibrium where genetic instruments influence the outcome via correlated rather than direct effects, overestimated genetic associations, and selection and survival biases. In addition, many genetic databases and MR studies primarily include populations genetically similar to European reference populations; improved diversity of participants in these databases and studies is critically needed.

Conclusions and Relevance

This review provides an overview of MR methodology, including assumptions, strengths, and limitations. Several important applications of MR in cardiovascular disease research are highlighted, including the identification of drug targets, evaluation of potential cardiovascular risk factors, as well as emerging methodology. Overall, while MR alone can never prove a causal relationship beyond reasonable doubt, MR offers a rigorous approach for investigating possible causal relationships in observational data and has the potential to transform our understanding of the etiology and treatment of cardiovascular disease.

Incorporating biological and clinical insights into variant choice for Mendelian randomisation: examples and principles

Mendelian randomisation is an accessible and valuable epidemiological approach to provide insight into the causal nature of relationships between risk factor exposures and disease outcomes. However, if performed without critical thought, we may simply have replaced one set of implausible assumptions (no unmeasured confounding or reverse causation) with another set of implausible assumptions (no pleiotropy or other instrument invalidity). The most critical decision to avoid pleiotropy is which genetic variants to use as instrumental variables. Two broad strategies for instrument selection are a biologically motivated strategy and a genome-wide strategy; in general, a biologically motivated strategy is preferred. In this review, we discuss various ways of implementing a biologically motivated selection strategy: using variants in a coding gene region for the exposure or a gene region that encodes a regulator of exposure levels, using a positive control variable and using a biomarker as the exposure rather than its behavioural proxy. In some cases, a genome-wide analysis can provide important complementary evidence, even when its reliability is questionable. In other cases, a biologically-motivated analysis may not be possible. The choice of genetic variants must be informed by biological and functional considerations where possible, requiring collaboration to combine biological and clinical insights with appropriate statistical methodology.

Moderate alcohol consumption on the risk of stroke in the Million Veteran Program

BACKGROUND

There is inconsistent evidence on the association of moderate alcohol consumption and stroke risk in the general population and is not well studied among U.S. Veterans. Furthermore, it is unclear whether primarily drinking beer, wine, or liquor is associated with a difference in stroke risk.

METHODS

The study included 185,323 Million Veteran Program participants who self-reported alcohol consumption on the Lifestyle Survey. Moderate consumption was defined as 1-2 drinks/day and beverage preference of beer, wine or liquor was defined if ≥ 50% of total drinks consumed were from a single type of beverage. Strokes were defined using ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes from the participants' electronic health record.

RESULTS

The mean (sd) age of the sample was 64 (13) years and 11% were women. We observed 4,339 (94% ischemic; 6% hemorrhagic) strokes over a median follow-up of 5.2 years. In Cox models adjusted for age, sex, race, education, income, body mass index, smoking, exercise, diet, cholesterol, prevalent diabetes, prevalent hypertension, lipid-lowering medication, antihypertensive medication, and diabetes medication, moderate alcohol consumption (1-2 drinks/day) was associated with a 22% lower risk of total stroke compared with never drinking [Hazards ratio (HR) 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78 (0.67, 0.92)]. When stratifying by stroke type, we observed a similar protective association with moderate consumption and ischemic stroke [HR (95% CI): 0.76 (0.65, 0.90)], but a non-statistically significant higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke [HR (95% CI): 1.29 (0.64, 2.61)]. We did not observe a difference in ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke risk among those who preferred beer, liquor or wine vs. no beverage preference. When stratifying by prior number of hospital visits (≤ 15, 16-33, 34-64, ≥ 65) as a proxy for health status, we observed attenuation of the protective association with greater number of visits [HR (95% CI): 0.87 (0.63, 1.19) for ≥ 65 visits vs. 0.80 (0.59, 1.08) for ≤ 15 visits].

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a lower risk of ischemic stroke, but not hemorrhagic stroke with moderate alcohol consumption and did not observe substantial differences in risk by beverage preference among a sample of U.S. Veterans. Healthy user bias of moderate alcohol consumption may be driving some of the observed protective association.

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations: update for summer 2023

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into ten sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), extensions and additional analyses, data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 24 months.

Association of healthy lifestyle with incident cardiovascular diseases among hypertensive and normotensive Chinese adults

Background

Whether lifestyle improvement benefits in reducing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) events extend to hypertensive patients and whether these benefits differ between hypertensive and normotensive individuals is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the associations of an overall healthy lifestyle with the subsequent development of CVD among participants with hypertension and normotension.

Methods

Using data from the Suzhou subcohort of the China Kadoorie Biobank study of 51,929 participants, this study defined five healthy lifestyle factors as nonsmoking or quitting for reasons other than illness; nonexcessive alcohol intake; relatively higher physical activity level; a relatively healthy diet; and having a standard waist circumference and body mass index. We estimated the associations of these lifestyle factors with CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and ischemic stroke (IS).

Results

During a follow-up of 10.1 years, this study documented 6,151 CVD incidence events, 1,304 IHD incidence events, and 2,243 IS incidence events. Compared to those with 0-1 healthy lifestyle factors, HRs for those with 4-5 healthy factors were 0.71 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.81) for CVD, 0.56 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.75) for IHD, and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.51, 0.79) for IS among hypertensive participants. However, we did not observe this association among normotensive participants. Stratified analyses showed that the association between a healthy lifestyle and IHD risk was stronger among younger participants, and the association with IS risk was stronger among hypertensive individuals with lower household incomes.

Conclusion

Adherence to a healthy lifestyle pattern is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular diseases among hypertensive patients, but this benefit is not as pronounced among normotensive patients.

Alcohol consumption and metabolic syndrome: Clinical and epidemiological impact on liver disease

Alcohol use and metabolic syndrome are highly prevalent in the population and frequently co-exist. Both are implicated in a large range of health problems, including chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related outcomes (i.e. decompensation or liver transplantation). Studies have yielded mixed results regarding the effects of mild-moderate alcohol consumption on the risk of metabolic syndrome and fatty liver disease, possibly due to methodological differences. The few available prospective studies have indicated that mild-moderate alcohol use is associated with an increase in liver-related outcomes. This conclusion was substantiated by systems biology analyses suggesting that alcohol and metabolic syndrome may play a similar role in fatty liver disease, potentiating an already existing dysregulation of common vital homeostatic pathways. Alcohol and metabolic factors are independently and jointly associated with liver-related outcomes. Indeed, metabolic syndrome increases the risk of liver-related outcomes, regardless of alcohol intake. Moreover, the components of metabolic syndrome appear to have additive effects when it comes to the risk of liver-related outcomes. A number of population studies have implied that measures of central/abdominal obesity, such as the waist-to-hip ratio, can predict liver-related outcomes more accurately than BMI, including in individuals who consume harmful quantities of alcohol. Many studies even point to synergistic interactions between harmful alcohol use and many metabolic components. This accumulating evidence showing independent, combined, and modifying effects of alcohol and metabolic factors on the onset and progression of chronic liver disease highlights the multifactorial background of liver disease in the population. The available evidence suggests that more holistic approaches could be useful for risk prediction, diagnostics and treatment planning.

Effects of the genetic variants of alcohol-metabolizing enzymes on lipid levels in Asian populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Emerging evidence indicates that variants of alcohol-metabolizing enzymes may influence lipid metabolism.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate whether the rs671 and rs1229984 variants affect lipid levels in East Asian individuals.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Foreign Medical Journal Service, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Web of Knowledge, Wanfang, and Chinese Biomedical Literature databases were searched until December 31, 2021.

DATA EXTRACTION

Meta-analyses of studies that examined the effects of alcohol-metabolizing enzyme variants on lipid levels, as well as the interaction with alcohol intake, were selected. Data extraction was conducted independently by two investigators and confirmed by the third.

DATA ANALYSIS

In total, 86 studies (179 640 individuals) were analyzed. The A allele of rs671 (a functional variant in the ALDH2 gene) was linked to higher levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and lower levels of triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. In contrast, the A allele of the rs1229984 (a functional variant in the ADH2 gene) was associated only with lower levels of LDL-C. The effects of rs671 and rs1229984 on lipid levels were much stronger in Japanese than in Chinese individuals and in males than in females. Regression analysis indicated that the effects of rs671 on lipid levels were independent of alcohol intake in an integrated East Asian population (ie, Japanese, Chinese, and Korean individuals). Intriguingly, alcohol intake had a statistical influence on lipid levels when the sample analyzed was restricted to Japanese individuals or to males.

CONCLUSIONS

The rs671 and rs1229984 variants of alcohol-metabolizing enzymes have significant effects on lipid levels and may serve as genetic markers for lipid dyslipidemia in East Asian populations. Circulating lipid levels in Japanese individuals and in males were modulated by the interaction between rs671 and alcohol intake.

Association between Dietary Behaviors and BMI Stratified by Sex and the ALDH2 rs671 Polymorphism in Japanese Adults

The rs671 polymorphism, unique to East Asians, is well known to change the sensitivity to alcohol. Moreover, this polymorphism is associated not only with alcohol intake but also with several dietary behaviors (DBs), chronic diseases, and BMI, but the triadic association among the rs671 genotype, DBs, and BMI is unclear. This study included 12,271 Japanese subjects and aimed to observe this three-way association using the rs671 polymorphism, data of 56 DBs, and BMI. All analyses were stratified by participant sex. First, linear regression analyses resulted in significant associations between 18 and 21 DBs and BMI in males and females, respectively. Next, genetic heterogeneity was observed in all sub-groups via interaction analysis of the rs671 genotype stratified by drinking habits. Finally, we observed the characteristics of BMI-related DBs based on the rs671 genotype via stepwise regression analyses stratified by the rs671 genotype and drinking habits. Notably, positive associations were observed between lactobacillus beverage intake and BMI among participants with the rs671 polymorphism AA genotype in both sexes. This study suggests that the rs671 polymorphism modifies the association between DBs and BMI independently of drinking habits, providing evidence for the potential use of rs671 polymorphism information for precision nutrition with East Asians.

Alcohol consumption and subclinical and clinical coronary heart disease: A Mendelian randomization analysis

AIMS

The potential effect of alcohol consumption on coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unclear. We used the variant rs671 in the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 gene (ALDH2) as an instrument to investigate the causal role of alcohol intake in subclinical and clinical CHD.

METHODS

We conducted two Mendelian randomization studies: a cross-sectional study of coronary artery calcification (CAC) on computed tomography of 1029 healthy men (mean age, 63.8 years) and a case-control study of 421 men with CHD (acute coronary syndrome [ACS] or stable angina pectoris) who underwent coronary revascularization and 842 age-matched male controls.

RESULTS

In the CAC study, medians (25%tiles, 75%tiles) of alcohol consumption by ALDH2-rs671 *2 homozygotes (n = 86 [8.4%]), *1*2 heterozygotes (n = 397 [38.5%]), and *1 homozygotes (n = 546 [53.1%]) were 0.0 (0.0, 0.0), 28.0 (0.0, 129.0), and 224.0 (84.0, 350.0) g/week, respectively. In age-adjusted Poisson regression with robust error variance, compared with *2 homozygotes, relative risks for prevalent CAC score >0, ≥100, and ≥300 in *1 homozygotes were 1.29 (95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.57), 1.76 (1.05-2.96), and 1.81 (0.80-4.09), respectively. In age-adjusted ordinal logistic regression for CAC distributions, we observed higher odds among *1 homozygotes (odds ratio, 2.19 [1.39-3.46]) and even among *1*2 heterozygotes (1.77 [1.11-2.82]) compared with *2 homozygotes. In the case-control study, conditional logistic regression revealed lower prevalence of *1 homozygotes among men with CHD (odds ratio, 0.54 [0.35-0.82]), especially ACS (0.46 [0.27-0.77]), than controls.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate a positive association of alcohol consumption with CAC burden but an inverse association with clinical CHD, especially ACS.

A Gentle Introduction to Instrumental Variables

Instrumental variables (IV) is a central strategy for identifying causal effects in absence of randomized experiments. Clinicians and epidemiologists may find the intuition of IV easy to grasp by comparison to randomized experiments. Randomization is an ideal IV because treatment is assigned randomly, and hence unaffected by everything else. IV methods in non-experimental settings mimic a randomized experiment by using a source of "as good as" random variation in treatment instead. The main challenge with IV designs is to find IVs that are as good as randomization. Discovering potential IVs require substantive knowledge and an understanding of IV design principles. Moreover, IV methods recover causal effects for a subset of the population who take treatment when induced by the IV. Sometimes these estimates are informative, other times their relevance is questionable. We provide an introduction to IV methods in clinical epidemiology. First, we introduce the main principles and assumptions. Second, we present practical examples based on mendelian randomization and provider preference IVs and refer to other common IVs in health. Third, practical steps in IV analysis are presented. Fourth, the promise and perils of IV methods are discussed. Finally, we suggest further readings.

Trajectories of alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: a 35-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Research into alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients' prognosis has largely ignored the longitudinal dynamics in drinking behaviour. This study measured the association between alcohol consumption trajectories and mortality risk in CVD patients.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

UK-based Whitehall II Study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1306 participants with incident non-fatal CVD (coronary heart disease/stroke) events.

MEASUREMENTS

Up to eight repeated measures of alcohol intake were available for each patient from the most recent assessment phase pre-incident CVD and all subsequent phases post-incident CVD, spanning up to three decades. Six trajectory groups of alcohol consumption were identified using group-based trajectory modelling and related to the risk of all-cause mortality, adjusting for demographics and changes in life-style and health status.

FINDINGS

Three hundred and eighty deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 5 years after patients' last alcohol assessment. Compared with patients who consistently drank moderately (≤ 14 units/week), former drinkers had a greater risk of mortality (hazard ratio = 1.74, 95% confidence interval = 1.19-2.54) after adjustment for covariates. There was no significantly increased risk of mortality in long-term abstainers, reduced moderate drinkers, stable or unstable heavy drinkers. Cross-sectional analyses based only on drinking information at patients' last assessment found no significant differences in mortality risk for abstainers, former or heavy drinkers versus moderate drinkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular disease patients who consistently drink ≤ 14 units/week appear to have a similar risk of mortality to those who are long-term abstainers, which does not support a protective effect of moderate drinking on total mortality. Cardiovascular disease patients who stop drinking appear to have increased mortality risk compared with continuous moderate drinkers, but this may be linked to poor self-rated health before cardiovascular disease onset.

Mendelian Randomization: Concepts and Scope

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method of studying the causal effects of modifiable exposures (i.e., potential risk factors) on health, social, and economic outcomes using genetic variants associated with the specific exposures of interest. MR provides a more robust understanding of the influence of these exposures on outcomes because germline genetic variants are randomly inherited from parents to offspring and, as a result, should not be related to potential confounding factors that influence exposure-outcome associations. The genetic variant can therefore be used as a tool to link the proposed risk factor and outcome, and to estimate this effect with less confounding and bias than conventional epidemiological approaches. We describe the scope of MR, highlighting the range of applications being made possible as genetic data sets and resources become larger and more freely available. We outline the MR approach in detail, covering concepts, assumptions, and estimation methods. We cover some common misconceptions, provide strategies for overcoming violation of assumptions, and discuss future prospects for extending the clinical applicability, methodological innovations, robustness, and generalizability of MR findings.

Bench Research Informed by GWAS Results

Scientifically interesting as well as practically important phenotypes often belong to the realm of complex traits. To the extent that these traits are hereditary, they are usually 'highly polygenic'. The study of such traits presents a challenge for researchers, as the complex genetic architecture of such traits makes it nearly impossible to utilise many of the usual methods of reverse genetics, which often focus on specific genes. In recent years, thousands of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were undertaken to explore the relationships between complex traits and a large number of genetic factors, most of which are characterised by tiny effects. In this review, we aim to familiarise 'wet biologists' with approaches for the interpretation of GWAS results, to clarify some issues that may seem counterintuitive and to assess the possibility of using GWAS results in experiments on various complex traits.

Effects of age and gender on the relationship between alcohol use disorder and somatic diseases: a national register study in Norway

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine how age and gender moderate the associations between alcohol use disorders (AUD) and several somatic diseases.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We performed a retrospective, register-based cohort study with 6-year follow-up of patients with AUD and the general population. Data were acquired from the Norwegian Patient Registry. Cox regressions were used to estimate HRs of somatic diseases.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with AUD (17 023; 0.4%) were compared with the population without AUD (4 271 559; 99.6%), with adults aged 18 years or older who were registered residents of Norway on 1 January 2008.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Dichotomous variables of 12 specific somatic diseases (cardiovascular diseases, endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases, cancer, and infectious diseases) were assessed. Diagnoses were set in specialist healthcare services.

RESULTS

Patients with AUD, compared with a population without AUD, experienced a significantly greater burden of all studied somatic diseases. Middle-aged adults with AUD had increased risks (p<0.05) for hypertension; ischaemic diseases; pulmonary diseases; cerebrovascular diseases; malnutrition; metabolic disorders; cancer; and influenza and pneumonia than younger and older adults with AUD. For most somatic diseases, we found no differences between younger versus older adults with AUD, and between females versus males with AUD (p>0.05). Males with AUD had significantly higher risks for pulmonary heart diseases (HR=3.9, 95% CI 3.3 to 4.6) and metabolic disorders (HR 4.7, 95% CI 4.5 to 5.0), while females with AUD had a significantly higher risk for viral hepatitis (HR=4.4, 95% CI 3.8 to 5.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Age moderated the associations between AUD and most somatic diseases, with middle-aged adults with AUD having a greater increased risk of somatic diseases compared with younger and older adults with AUD. Gender only moderated associations between AUD and pulmonary heart diseases, metabolic disorders and viral hepatitis. This has implications for the prioritisation of somatic resources among patients with AUD.

Alcohol Consumption and Cigarette Smoking among Young Adults: An Instrumental Variable Analysis Using Alcohol Flushing

Association between drinking and smoking has remained controversial since the association between two studies were influenced by various confounding. Thus, our study aimed to explore the causal effect of alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking using alcohol flushing as an instrument variable, which is free from confounders. We analyzed cross-sectional survey data from 2500 Korean young adults (1600 men and 900 women). Alcohol flushing was strongly associated with log transformed alcohol consumption (F = 272). In men, alcohol non-flushers were 1.41 times (95% CI 1.28-1.55) more likely to smoke 100 cigarettes in their lifetime in logistic regression analysis. Alcohol non-flushers were also 1.3 times (95% CI 1.21-1.40) more likely to become daily smokers and 1.39 times (95% CI 1.27-1.51) more likely to be current smokers than alcohol flushers. However, in an IV analysis, no causal relationships between alcohol consumption and smoking status were found. Alcohol consumption, on the other hand, was causally associated with lowering nicotine dependence and former smoking in men. Alcohol consumption determined by alcohol flushing status does not appear to be causally linked to the smoking behavior of young adults. The relationship between alcohol consumption and nicotine dependence and smoking cessation needs further study.

Interpreting Mendelian-randomization estimates of the effects of categorical exposures such as disease status and educational attainment

Background

Mendelian randomization has been previously used to estimate the effects of binary and ordinal categorical exposures—e.g. Type 2 diabetes or educational attainment defined by qualification—on outcomes. Binary and categorical phenotypes can be modelled in terms of liability—an underlying latent continuous variable with liability thresholds separating individuals into categories. Genetic variants influence an individual’s categorical exposure via their effects on liability, thus Mendelian-randomization analyses with categorical exposures will capture effects of liability that act independently of exposure category.

Methods and results

We discuss how groups in which the categorical exposure is invariant can be used to detect liability effects acting independently of exposure category. For example, associations between an adult educational-attainment polygenic score (PGS) and body mass index measured before the minimum school leaving age (e.g. age 10 years), cannot indicate the effects of years in full-time education on this outcome. Using UK Biobank data, we show that a higher educational-attainment PGS is strongly associated with lower smoking initiation and higher odds of glasses use at age 15 years. These associations were replicated in sibling models. An orthogonal approach using the raising of the school leaving age (ROSLA) policy change found that individuals who chose to remain in education to age 16 years before the reform likely had higher liability to educational attainment than those who were compelled to remain in education to age 16 years after the reform, and had higher income, lower pack-years of smoking, higher odds of glasses use and lower deprivation in adulthood. These results suggest that liability to educational attainment is associated with health and social outcomes independently of years in full-time education.

Conclusions

Mendelian-randomization studies with non-continuous exposures should be interpreted in terms of liability, which may affect the outcome via changes in exposure category and/or independently.

Alcohol consumption in relation to cardiovascular diseases and mortality: a systematic review of Mendelian randomization studies

The causal effects of alcohol-in-moderation on cardiometabolic health are continuously debated. Mendelian randomization (MR) is an established method to address causal questions in observational studies. We performed a systematic review of the current evidence from MR studies on the association between alcohol consumption and cardiometabolic diseases, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular risk factors. We performed a systematic search of the literature, including search terms on type of design and exposure. We assessed methodological quality based on key elements of the MR design: use of a full instrumental variable analysis and validation of the three key MR assumptions. We additionally looked at exploration of non-linearity. We reported the direction of the studied associations. Our search yielded 24 studies that were eligible for inclusion. A full instrumental variable analysis was performed in 17 studies (71%) and 13 out of 24 studies (54%) validated all three key assumptions. Five studies (21%) assessed potential non-linearity. In general, null associations were reported for genetically predicted alcohol consumption with the primary outcomes cardiovascular disease (67%) and diabetes (75%), while the only study on all-cause mortality reported a detrimental association. Considering the heterogeneity in methodological quality of the included MR studies, it is not yet possible to draw conclusions on the causal role of moderate alcohol consumption on cardiometabolic health. As MR is a rapidly evolving field, we expect that future MR studies, especially with recent developments regarding instrument selection and non-linearity methodology, will further substantiate this discussion.

Effect of alcohol consumption on the risk of adverse events in atrial fibrillation: from the COmparison study of Drugs for symptom control and complication prEvention of Atrial Fibrillation (CODE-AF) registry

AIMS

The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between alcohol consumption and atrial fibrillation (AF)-related adverse events in the AF population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 9411 patients with nonvalvular AF in a prospective observational registry were categorized into four groups according to the amount of alcohol consumption-abstainer-rare, light (<100 g/week), moderate (100-200 g/week), and heavy (≥200 g/week). Data on adverse events (ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack, systemic embolic event, or AF hospitalization including for AF rate or rhythm control and heart failure management) were collected for 17.4 ± 7.3 months. A Cox proportional hazard models was performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs), and propensity score matching was conducted to validate the results. The heavy alcohol consumption group showed an increased risk of composite adverse outcomes [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.66] compared with the reference group (abstainer-rare group). However, no significant increased risk for adverse outcomes was observed in the light (aHR 0.88, 95% CI 0.68-1.13) and moderate (aHR 0.91, 95% CI 0.63-1.33) groups. In subgroup analyses, adverse effect of heavy alcohol consumption was significant, especially among patients with low CHA2DS2-VASc score, without hypertension, and in whom β-blocker were not prescribed.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that heavy alcohol consumption increases the risk of adverse events in patients with AF, whereas light or moderate alcohol consumption does not.

Computational Tools for Causal Inference in Genetics

The advent of large-scale, phenotypically rich, and readily accessible data provides an unprecedented opportunity for epidemiologists, statistical geneticists, bioinformaticians, and also behavioral and social scientists to investigate the causes and consequences of disease. Computational tools and resources are an integral component of such endeavors, which will become increasingly important as these data continue to grow exponentially. In this review, we have provided an overview of computational software and databases that have been developed to assist with analyses in causal inference. This includes online tools that can be used to help generate hypotheses, publicly accessible resources that store summary-level information for millions of genetic markers, and computational approaches that can be used to leverage this wealth of data to study causal relationships.

Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with impaired insulin secretion and fasting glucose in non-obese non-diabetic men

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

A low insulin secretion capacity has been implicated in the high prevalence of non-obese diabetes in East Asians. As alcohol consumption alters insulin and glucose metabolism, we tested the hypothesis that alcohol consumption contributes to impaired insulin secretion and glucose intolerance in lean/normal-weight non-diabetic Japanese men.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study was undertaken among the residents of Shika town, Japan, between 2011 and 2017. A total of 402 non-diabetic men, including participants with normal fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and impaired FPG (FPG 5.6-6.9 mmol/L), and aged ≥40 years, were examined. FPG, the homeostasis model assessment of insulin secretion capacity (HOMA-B) and alcohol consumption were evaluated and compared between the body mass index (BMI) <25 and BMI ≥25 groups.

RESULTS

HOMA-B levels were lower in the BMI <25 group than in the BMI ≥25 group. Alcohol consumption correlated with a low HOMA-B level regardless of BMI, and, thus, the HOMA-B levels of alcohol drinkers were significantly lower in the BMI <25 group. A multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that alcohol consumption, even light-to-moderate consumption (1-25 g/day), was associated with significantly low levels of HOMA-B and impaired FPG in the BMI <25 group. Among participants with impaired FPG, a low level of HOMA-B was observed in alcohol drinkers, but not in non-drinkers. In contrast, light-to-moderate alcohol consumption was not related to HOMA-B or FPG in the BMI ≥25-group.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol consumption, even a small amount, might contribute to reductions in HOMA-B levels and impaired FPG in lean/normal-weight Japanese men.

Effects of long sleep time and irregular sleep-wake rhythm on cognitive function in older people

Sleep disturbances and cognitive decline are common in older adults. We aimed to investigate the effects of the total sleep time (TST) and sleep–wake rhythm on executive function and working memory in older adults. In 63 older participants, we measured the TST, wake after sleep onset (WASO), and sleep timing (midpoint between bedtime and wake-up time) using actigraphy. Executive function was evaluated with the trail making test B (TMT-B) and Wisconsin card sorting test (WCST). The number of back task (N-back task) was used to measure working memory. Participants with a TST ≥ 8 h had a significantly lower percentage of correct answers (% correct) on the 1-back task than those with a TST < 8 h. The % correct on the 1-back task was significantly correlated with the TST, WASO, and sleep timing. Multiple regression analyses revealed that the TST and sleep timing were significant factors of the % correct on the 1-back task. The TMT-B score was significantly correlated with the sleep timing. Category achievement on the WCST was significantly correlated with the standard deviation of the sleep timing. Therefore, a long sleep time and an irregular sleep–wake rhythm could have adverse effects on executive function and working memory in older people.

The effect of ALDH2 rs671 gene mutation on clustering of cardiovascular risk factors in a big data study of Chinese population: associations differ between the sexes

BACKGROUND

The ALDH2 rs671 genetic polymorphism has been linked with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), but comprehensive epidemiological studies are lacking. An observational, retrospective big data study was carried out to evaluate the associations between this polymorphism and clustering cardiovascular risk factors (CRFs) in a Chinese population.

METHODS

A total of 13,101 individuals (8431 males and 4670 females) were enrolled. Genetic polymorphism was assessed using gene mutation detection kits, coupled with an automatic fluorescent analyzer. Other data were obtained from the records of the Department of Health Care at Peking Union Medical College Hospital.

RESULTS

Comparing the concentrations of common biochemical analytes, including BMI, SBP, DBP, ALT, AST, γ-GT, TBil, Cr, Glu, TC, TG, and HDL-C among individuals with the GG, GA, and AA genotypes of ALDH2 rs671, we found significant differences in males (all p < 0.001), but not in females. For males, the frequencies of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity were significantly higher for GG than for GA or AA (all p < 0.05). However, there was no significant difference for dyslipidemia, and no significant associations were observed for all frequencies in females. The prevalence of individuals with 1-4 CRFs was significantly higher among GG males than those carrying GA or AA, and fewer GG males had non-CRFs (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Polymorphisms of ALDH2 rs671 are associated with clustering CRFs, especially hypertension and diabetes in males, but not in females. These associations are likely mediated by alcohol intake, which is also associated with this gene.

Alcohol consumption combined with dietary low-carbohydrate/high-protein intake increased the left ventricular systolic dysfunction risk and lethal ventricular arrhythmia susceptibility in apolipoprotein E/low-density lipoprotein receptor double-knockout mice

Alcohol abuse is positively associated with cardiovascular disease. Dietary low-carbohydrate/high-protein (LCHP) intake confers a greater mortality risk. Here, the impact of ethanol consumption in combination with dietary LCHP intake on left ventricular (LV) systolic function and lethal ventricular arrhythmia susceptibility were investigated in apolipoprotein E/low-density lipoprotein receptor double-knockout (AL) mice. The underlying mechanisms, cardiac sympathovagal balance, beta-adrenergic receptor (ADRB) levels, and gap junction channel protein connexin 43 (Cx43) expression, were examined. Male AL mice fed an LCHP diet with or without ethanol were bred for 16 weeks. Age-matched male AL and wild-type mice received standard chow diet and served as controls. The following were used to assess LV systolic function, lethal ventricular arrhythmia susceptibility, cardiac sympathovagal balance, Cx43 expression, and ADRB levels: The results demonstrated that ethanol consumption in combination with dietary LCHP intake worsened LCHP-induced LV systolic dysfunction in AL mice and enhanced their susceptibility in the ventricular arrhythmia-evoked test. There were concomitant increases in LV weight, LF/HF ratio shown by HRV, TH, ADRB1, ADRB2, and Cx43 expressions by LV fluorescence immunohistochemistry, and LV Cx43 messenger ribonucleic acid expression by PCR. In AL mice, alcohol consumption combined with dietary LCHP intake may thus promote a shift in cardiac sympathovagal balance toward sympathetic predominance, the increases in beta-adrenergic receptors (ADRB1 and ADRB2), and then affect the gap junction channel protein Cx43, which in turn could contribute to increased risks of LV systolic dysfunction and susceptibility to lethal ventricular arrhythmia.

Detecting and correcting for bias in Mendelian randomization analyses using Gene-by-Environment interactions

Background

Mendelian randomization (MR) has developed into an established method for strengthening causal inference and estimating causal effects, largely due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies. However, genetic instruments remain controversial, as horizontal pleiotropic effects can introduce bias into causal estimates. Recent work has highlighted the potential of gene–environment interactions in detecting and correcting for pleiotropic bias in MR analyses.

Methods

We introduce MR using Gene-by-Environment interactions (MRGxE) as a framework capable of identifying and correcting for pleiotropic bias. If an instrument–covariate interaction induces variation in the association between a genetic instrument and exposure, it is possible to identify and correct for pleiotropic effects. The interpretation of MRGxE is similar to conventional summary MR approaches, with a particular advantage of MRGxE being the ability to assess the validity of an individual instrument.

Results

We investigate the effect of adiposity, measured using body mass index (BMI), upon systolic blood pressure (SBP) using data from the UK Biobank and a single weighted allelic score informed by data from the GIANT consortium. We find MRGxE produces findings in agreement with two-sample summary MR approaches. Further, we perform simulations highlighting the utility of the approach even when the MRGxE assumptions are violated.

Conclusions

By utilizing instrument–covariate interactions in MR analyses implemented within a linear-regression framework, it is possible to identify and correct for horizontal pleiotropic bias, provided the average magnitude of pleiotropy is constant across interaction-covariate subgroups.

Mendelian Randomization analysis of the causal effect of adiposity on hospital costs

Estimates of the marginal effect of measures of adiposity such as body mass index (BMI) on healthcare costs are important for the formulation and evaluation of policies targeting adverse weight profiles. Most estimates of this association are affected by endogeneity bias. We use a novel identification strategy exploiting Mendelian Randomization - random germline genetic variation modelled using instrumental variables - to identify the causal effect of BMI on inpatient hospital costs. Using data on over 300,000 individuals, the effect size per person per marginal unit of BMI per year varied according to specification, including £21.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): £14.35-£28.07) for conventional inverse variance weighted models to £18.85 (95% CI: £9.05-£28.65) for penalized weighted median models. Effect sizes from Mendelian Randomization models were larger in most cases than non-instrumental variable multivariable adjusted estimates (£13.47, 95% CI: £12.51-£14.43). There was little evidence of non-linearity. Within-family estimates, intended to address dynastic biases, were imprecise.

Exploiting horizontal pleiotropy to search for causal pathways within a Mendelian randomization framework

In Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, variants that exert horizontal pleiotropy are typically treated as a nuisance. However, they could be valuable in identifying alternative pathways to the traits under investigation. Here, we develop MR-TRYX, a framework that exploits horizontal pleiotropy to discover putative risk factors for disease. We begin by detecting outliers in a single exposure-outcome MR analysis, hypothesising they are due to horizontal pleiotropy. We search across hundreds of complete GWAS summary datasets to systematically identify other (candidate) traits that associate with the outliers. We develop a multi-trait pleiotropy model of the heterogeneity in the exposure-outcome analysis due to pathways through candidate traits. Through detailed investigation of several causal relationships, many pleiotropic pathways are uncovered with already established causal effects, validating the approach, but also alternative putative causal pathways. Adjustment for pleiotropic pathways reduces the heterogeneity across the analyses.

The promise and reality of therapeutic discovery from large cohorts

Technological advances in rapid data acquisition have transformed medical biology into a data mining field, where new data sets are routinely dissected and analyzed by statistical models of ever-increasing complexity. Many hypotheses can be generated and tested within a single large data set, and even small effects can be statistically discriminated from a sea of noise. On the other hand, the development of therapeutic interventions moves at a much slower pace. They are determined from carefully randomized and well-controlled experiments with explicitly stated outcomes as the principal mechanism by which a single hypothesis is tested. In this paradigm, only a small fraction of interventions can be tested, and an even smaller fraction are ultimately deemed therapeutically successful. In this Review, we propose strategies to leverage large-cohort data to inform the selection of targets and the design of randomized trials of novel therapeutics. Ultimately, the incorporation of big data and experimental medicine approaches should aim to reduce the failure rate of clinical trials as well as expedite and lower the cost of drug development.

Precision Medicine and Cardiovascular Health: Insights from Mendelian Randomization Analyses

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is considered a primary driver of global mortality and is estimated to be responsible for approximately 17.9 million deaths annually. Consequently, a substantial body of research related to CVD has developed, with an emphasis on identifying strategies for the prevention and effective treatment of CVD. In this review, we critically examine the existing CVD literature, and specifically highlight the contribution of Mendelian randomization analyses in CVD research. Throughout this review, we assess the extent to which research findings agree across a range of studies of differing design within a triangulation framework. If differing study designs are subject to non-overlapping sources of bias, consistent findings limit the extent to which results are merely an artefact of study design. Consequently, broad agreement across differing studies can be viewed as providing more robust causal evidence in contrast to limiting the scope of the review to a single specific study design. Utilising the triangulation approach, we highlight emerging patterns in research findings, and explore the potential of identified risk factors as targets for precision medicine and novel interventions.

Alcohol consumption predicts incidence of depressive episodes across 10 years among older adults in 19 countries

Alcohol consumption is increasing in many countries, and excessive alcohol consumption is particularly increasing among older adults. Excessive alcohol consumption causes morbidity and mortality, especially among older adults, including an increased risk of depressive episodes. We review the mechanisms through which alcohol consumption may affect depression, and argue that the effects of alcohol consumption on depressive episodes among older adults are understudied. We harmonized data among older adults (≥50 years) on alcohol consumption, depressive episodes, and an array of risk factors across 10 years and 19 countries (N=57,276). Alcohol consumption was categorized as current or long-term abstainer, occasional, moderate and heavy drinking at an average of 2.3 follow-up time points. Depressive episodes were measured through the CES-D or EURO-D. Multi-level Cox proportional frailty models in which the random effect has a multiplicative relationship to hazard were estimated with controls for co-occurring medical conditions, health behaviors, and demographics. Long-term alcohol abstainers had a higher hazard of depressive episodes (HR=1.14, 95% C.I. 1.08-1.21), as did those reporting occasional (HR=1.16, 95% C.I. 1.10-1.21) and heavy drinking (HR=1.22, 95% C.I. 1.13-1.30), compared with moderate drinking. Hazard ratios were attenuated in frailty models; heavy drinking, however, remained robustly associated in a random-effects model with a frailty component (HR=1.16, 95% C.I. 1.11-1.21). Interactions were observed by gender and smoking status: long-term abstainers, women's, and smokers' (HR for interaction, 1.04, 95% C.I. 1.00-1.07) hazards of depressive episodes increased more than what would be expected based on their multiplicative effects, when compared to moderate drinking, non-smoking men. Excessive alcohol consumption among older adults is a concern not only for physical, but also for mental health. Physician efforts to screen older adults for excessive alcohol use is critical for mental health to remain strong in aging populations.

Acetaldehyde Dehydrogenase 2 rs671 Polymorphism Affects Hypertension Susceptibility and Lipid Profiles in a Chinese Population

Previous studies revealed that the rs671 polymorphism in the acetaldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) genes is correlated with alcohol consumption in Japanese population. The ALDH2 gene variants and drinking are associated with hypertension and dyslipidemia. However, it remains unclear whether there might be potent relationships among ALDH2 rs671 polymorphism, alcohol consumption, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in Shandong population. A total of 467 male volunteers from Shandong area were enrolled in this study. The ALDH2 rs671 polymorphism was genotyped using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. The concentrations of total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) in serum were measured using commercial kits. SPSS 23.0 was used for statistical analysis. The significance of differences between subgroups was determined using chi-square test, and multiple comparisons were performed with the least-significant difference method. The ALDH2 variant frequencies were 80.5% with GG, 17.1% with GA, and 2.4% with AA. The ALDH2 genotypes had significant correlations with alcohol consumption (p = 0.001), whereas the GA genotype was associated with a decreased risk of alcohol consumption (odds ratio = 0.27; 95% confidence interval = 0.130-0.539; p = 0.001). The ALDH2 genotypes frequencies and drinking habits were significantly different between hypertension and healthy individuals (p = 0.034; p = 0.044). The ALDH2 GG genotype individuals have high average lipids levels, and the proportion of TC disorder among GG individuals was higher than that of GA individuals (p = 0.006). Individuals who had drinking habits have a high average lipids levels; especially average TC levels (p = 0.048), and had high proportions of dyslipidemia (TC and HDL; p = 0.016 and p = 0.033, respectively). The frequencies of ALDH2 variants were evaluated according to the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium among enrolled population. Our study suggested that the individuals with ALDH2 rs671 GA genotype were less prone to developing a drinking habit in Shandong population. The ALDH2 genotypes and drinking habit were associated with hypertension and lipid profiles especially TC profile in Shandong province. The ALDH2 rs671 genotypes indicated that the gene-related drinking habit and gene variant altogether may affect hypertension and dyslipidemia.

Alcohol Consumption in Later Life and Mortality in the United States: Results from 9 Waves of the Health and Retirement Study

BACKGROUND

Alcohol consumption in later life has increased in the past decade, and the relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality is controversial. Recent studies suggest little, if any, health benefit to alcohol. Yet most rely on single-time point consumption assessments and minimal confounder adjustments.

METHODS

We report on 16 years of follow-up from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) cohorts born 1931 to 1941 (N = 7,904, baseline mean age = 61, SD = 3.18). Respondents were queried about drinking frequency/quantity. Mortality was established via exit interviews and confirmed with the national death index. Time-varying confounders included but were not limited to household assets, smoking, body mass index, health/functioning, depression, chronic disease; time-invariant confounders included baseline age, education, sex, and race.

RESULTS

After adjustment, current abstainers had the highest risk of subsequent mortality, consistent with sick quitters, and moderate (men: HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.91; women: HR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.63 to 1.07) drinking was associated with a lower mortality rate compared with occasional drinking, though smokers and men evidenced less of an inverse association. Quantitative bias analyses indicated that omitted confounders would need to be associated with ~4-fold increases in mortality rates for men and ~9-fold increases for women to change the results.

CONCLUSIONS

There are consistent associations between moderate/occasional drinking and lower mortality, though residual confounding remains a threat to validity. Continued efforts to conduct large-scale observational studies of alcohol consumption and mortality are needed to characterize the changing patterns of consumption in older age.

Contextualizing selection bias in Mendelian randomization: how bad is it likely to be?

BACKGROUND

Selection bias affects Mendelian randomization investigations when selection into the study sample depends on a collider between the genetic variant and confounders of the risk factor-outcome association. However, the relative importance of selection bias for Mendelian randomization compared with other potential biases is unclear.

METHODS

We performed an extensive simulation study to assess the impact of selection bias on a typical Mendelian randomization investigation. We considered inverse probability weighting as a potential method for reducing selection bias. Finally, we investigated whether selection bias may explain a recently reported finding that lipoprotein(a) is not a causal risk factor for cardiovascular mortality in individuals with previous coronary heart disease.

RESULTS

Selection bias had a severe impact on bias and Type 1 error rates in our simulation study, but only when selection effects were large. For moderate effects of the risk factor on selection, bias was generally small and Type 1 error rate inflation was not considerable. Inverse probability weighting ameliorated bias when the selection model was correctly specified, but increased bias when selection bias was moderate and the model was misspecified. In the example of lipoprotein(a), strong genetic associations and strong confounder effects on selection mean the reported null effect on cardiovascular mortality could plausibly be explained by selection bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Selection bias can adversely affect Mendelian randomization investigations, but its impact is likely to be less than other biases. Selection bias is substantial when the effects of the risk factor and confounders on selection are particularly large.

Pleiotropy-robust Mendelian randomization

Background

The potential of Mendelian randomization studies is rapidly expanding due to: (i) the growing power of genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses to detect genetic variants associated with several exposures; and (ii) the increasing availability of these genetic variants in large-scale surveys. However, without a proper biological understanding of the pleiotropic working of genetic variants, a fundamental assumption of Mendelian randomization (the exclusion restriction) can always be contested.

Methods

We build upon and synthesize recent advances in the literature on instrumental variables (IVs) estimation that test and relax the exclusion restriction. Our pleiotropy-robust Mendelian randomization (PRMR) method first estimates the degree of pleiotropy, and in turn corrects for it. If (i) a subsample exists for which the genetic variants do not affect the exposure; (ii) the selection into this subsample is not a joint consequence of the IV and the outcome; (iii) pleiotropic effects are homogeneous, PRMR obtains unbiased estimates of causal effects.

Results

Simulations show that existing MR methods produce biased estimators for realistic forms of pleiotropy. Under the aforementioned assumptions, PRMR produces unbiased estimators. We illustrate the practical use of PRMR by estimating the causal effect of: (i) tobacco exposure on body mass index (BMI); (ii) prostate cancer on self-reported health; and (iii) educational attainment on BMI in the UK Biobank data.

Conclusions

PRMR allows for instrumental variables that violate the exclusion restriction due to pleiotropy, and it corrects for pleiotropy in the estimation of the causal effect. If the degree of pleiotropy is unknown, PRMR can still be used as a sensitivity analysis.

Conventional and genetic evidence on alcohol and vascular disease aetiology: a prospective study of 500 000 men and women in China

BACKGROUND

Moderate alcohol intake has been associated with reduced cardiovascular risk in many studies, in comparison with abstinence or with heavier drinking. Studies in east Asia can help determine whether these associations are causal, since two common genetic variants greatly affect alcohol drinking patterns. We used these two variants to assess the relationships between cardiovascular risk and genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake in men, contrasting the findings in men with those in women (few of whom drink).

METHODS

The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 715 adults between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, from ten areas of China, recording alcohol use and other characteristics. It followed them for about 10 years (until Jan 1, 2017), monitoring cardiovascular disease (including ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and myocardial infarction) by linkage with morbidity and mortality registries and electronic hospital records. 161 498 participants were genotyped for two variants that alter alcohol metabolism, ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984. Adjusted Cox regression was used to obtain the relative risks associating disease incidence with self-reported drinking patterns (conventional epidemiology) or with genotype-predicted mean male alcohol intake (genetic epidemiology-ie, Mendelian randomisation), with stratification by study area to control for variation between areas in disease rates and in genotype-predicted intake.

FINDINGS

33% (69 897/210 205) of men reported drinking alcohol in most weeks, mainly as spirits, compared with only 2% (6245/302 510) of women. Among men, conventional epidemiology showed that self-reported alcohol intake had U-shaped associations with the incidence of ischaemic stroke (n=14 930), intracerebral haemorrhage (n=3496), and acute myocardial infarction (n=2958); men who reported drinking about 100 g of alcohol per week (one to two drinks per day) had lower risks of all three diseases than non-drinkers or heavier drinkers. In contrast, although genotype-predicted mean male alcohol intake varied widely (from 4 to 256 g per week-ie, near zero to about four drinks per day), it did not have any U-shaped associations with risk. For stroke, genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake had a continuously positive log-linear association with risk, which was stronger for intracerebral haemorrhage (relative risk [RR] per 280 g per week 1·58, 95% CI 1·36-1·84, p<0·0001) than for ischaemic stroke (1·27, 1·13-1·43, p=0·0001). For myocardial infarction, however, genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake was not significantly associated with risk (RR per 280 g per week 0·96, 95% CI 0·78-1·18, p=0·69). Usual alcohol intake in current drinkers and genotype-predicted alcohol intake in all men had similarly strong positive associations with systolic blood pressure (each p<0·0001). Among women, few drank and the studied genotypes did not predict high mean alcohol intake and were not positively associated with blood pressure, stroke, or myocardial infarction.

INTERPRETATION

Genetic epidemiology shows that the apparently protective effects of moderate alcohol intake against stroke are largely non-causal. Alcohol consumption uniformly increases blood pressure and stroke risk, and appears in this one study to have little net effect on the risk of myocardial infarction.

FUNDING

Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, GlaxoSmithKline, Medical Research Council, and Wellcome Trust.

Genetic determinants of beverage consumption: Implications for nutrition and health

Beverages make important contributions to nutritional intake and their role in health has received much attention. This review focuses on the genetic determinants of common beverage consumption and how research in this field is contributing insight to what and how much we consume and why this genetic knowledge matters from a research and public health perspective. The earliest efforts in gene-beverage behavior mapping involved genetic linkage and candidate gene analysis but these approaches have been largely replaced by genome-wide association studies (GWAS). GWAS have identified biologically plausible loci underlying alcohol and coffee drinking behavior. No GWAS has identified variants specifically associated with consumption of tea, juice, soda, wine, beer, milk or any other common beverage. Thus far, GWAS highlight an important behavior-reward component (as opposed to taste) to beverage consumption which may serve as a potential barrier to dietary interventions. Loci identified have been used in Mendelian randomization and gene×beverage interaction analysis of disease but results have been mixed. This research is necessary as it informs the clinical relevance of SNP-beverage associations and thus genotype-based personalized nutrition, which is gaining interest in the commercial and public health sectors.

Alcohol consumption and diabetes risk in a Chinese population: a Mendelian randomization analysis

AIM

To assess the causality between alcohol intake, diabetes risk and related traits.

DESIGN

Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Subgroup analysis, standard instrumental variable analysis and local average treatment effect (LATE) methods were applied to assess linear and non-linear causality.

SETTING

China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 4536 participants, including 721 diabetes cases.

FINDINGS

Carriage of an ALDH2 rs671 A allele reduced alcohol consumption by 44.63% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -49.44%, -39.37%]. In males, additional carriage of an A allele was significantly connected to decreased diabetes risk for the overall population [odds ratio (OR) = 0.716, 95% CI = 0.567-0.904, P = 0.005] or moderate drinkers (OR = 0.564, 95% CI = 0.355-0.894, P = 0.015). In instrumental variable (IV) analysis, increasing alcohol consumption by 1.7-fold was associated with an incidence-rate ratio of 1.32 (95% CI = 1.06-1.67, P = 0.014) for diabetes risk, and elevated alcohol intake was causally connected to natural log-transformed fasting, 2-hour post-load plasma glucose (β = 0.036, 95% CI = 0.018-0.054; β = 0.072, 95% CI = 0.035-0.108) and insulin resistance [homeostatic model assessment for IR (HOMA-IR] (β = 0.104, 95% CI = 0.039-0.169), but was not associated with beta-cell function (HOMA-beta). In addition, the LATE method did not identify significant U-shaped causality between alcohol consumption and diabetes-related traits. In females, the effects of alcohol intake on all the outcomes were non-significant.

CONCLUSION

Among men in China, higher alcohol intake appears to be causally associated with increased diabetes risk and worsened related traits, even for moderate drinkers. This study found no significant U-shaped causality between alcohol consumption and diabetes-related traits.