Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity

Non-radiative effects dominate the local surface temperature response to land-cover change-Insights from a semi-empirical model

Land-cover change (LCC) is an important driver of climate change through carbon emissions (biochemical effects), but also through changes in the surface energy balance (biophysical effects). Quantifying magnitude and sign of surface temperature responses to biophysical effects is still challenging and under debate. We develop a new semi-empirical model based on a linearized surface energy balance for biophysical and an empirical model for the biochemical responses to LCC. Neglecting indirect effects, we find average global direct biophysical and biochemical warmings in response to a stylized deforestation scenario (1.22 K and 0.50 K) and historical LCC (0.42 K and 0.15 K), whereas an afforestation experiment leads to cooling (-1.95 K and -0.96 K). Our results underline the non-negligible impact of biophysical effects, especially non-radiative effects, and stress the importance of including these in the assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.

Shedding light on biodiversity: reviewing existing knowledge and exploring hypothesised impacts of agrophotovoltaics

The growing demand for energy and the shift towards green energy solutions have led to the conversion of open spaces and agricultural fields into photovoltaic (PV) power plants, exacerbating the "food-energy-environment" trilemma. Agrophotovoltaics (APVs), a dual-use system combining agriculture and energy production on the same land, presents a potential solution to this challenge. While the environmental impacts of ground-mounted utility-scale PV (USPV) power plants and the effects of APV systems on agricultural yields have been extensively studied and reviewed, the implications for wildlife and biodiversity remain largely unexplored. This knowledge gap is pressing, given the accelerated global adoption of APV systems and the urgency of understanding their broader ecological consequences. In this concise review, we synthesise existing literature on the impacts of USPV installations on biodiversity and the effects of APV on crop production. Building on these foundations, we propose novel hypotheses concerning the potential pathways and mechanisms through which APV systems may influence biodiversity. We explore the complex interactions between agroecosystems and natural ecosystems, examining both direct and indirect effects. Our review culminates in a set of key research questions designed to guide future studies on the biodiversity outcomes of APV deployment. Future research should comprehensively address factors such as habitat type, climate, spatial scale, technology, and agricultural practices, as well as the overarching impacts of climate change. By highlighting the importance of these variables, we aim to facilitate a nuanced understanding of how APV systems can either support or undermine biodiversity. This work not only underscores the critical need for empirical studies in this emerging field but also sets the stage for more informed and sustainable implementation of APV technologies.

Avoiding global deforestation by taxing land in agricultural production: the implications for global markets

The projected growth in population and incomes is expected to create pressure to convert forestland into farmland. At the same time, the increasingly negative climate impacts are expected to generate further pressure to enhance the terrestrial carbon sink. Even though these goals are incompatible as reversing the deforestation trend by afforesting cropland would result in negative market impacts such as higher food prices, using the GTAP and GTM models, we find that these impacts would be relatively small if the goal of preserving 144.2 million hectares of forestland that otherwise would be converted to agricultural land by 2033 is achieved through a tax on land use in agricultural production. As to the economic price for doing so, the avoided deforestation would in most regions of the world result in less agricultural output and higher market prices. This is estimated to impact the well-being of global consumers by $119.7 billion, which translates to a global average cost of $13.78 per person in 2033.

Towards a more comprehensive scenario analysis: Response of soil erosion to future land use and climate change in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China

Rapid urbanization and climate change exacerbate soil erosion globally, threatening ecosystem services and sustainable development. However, current predictive studies on future soil erosion often lack comprehensive consideration of the interactions between land use and climate change. This study proposed a comprehensive scenario analysis framework that integrated four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from CMIP6 with four bespoke land-use scenarios (Inertial Development (IDS), Urban Development Priority (UDPS), Ecological Protection Priority (EPPS), and Farmland Protection Priority (FPPS)) to create 16 future scenarios, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of potential soil erosion trajectories. The results indicated that (1) compared to the baseline period (2000-2020), future soil erosion in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA) would improve, albeit with significant differences among the scenarios. The most notable improvement was under EPPS + SSP1-2.6 scenario (ScC1). (2) The lower Jinsha, upper Nanpan, and Red river basins were high-risk areas for soil erosion in the CYUA, each dominated by different factors, necessitating differentiated soil erosion control measures. (3) Land-use and climate change jointly influenced the direction of erosion development, with the lightest erosion occurring under the EPPS and heaviest erosion occurring under the FPPS. The largest decrease in erosion occurs under SSP1-2.6, whereas the smallest decrease occurs under SSP5-8.5. (4) Climate change had a more significant impact on soil erosion than land-use change, with the reduction rates of the soil erosion modulus and area between different climate change scenarios relative to the past 20 years being 9% and 3.77%, respectively, approximately eight and four times the magnitude of change under different land-use scenarios. This study recommends reducing carbon emissions, enhancing vegetation cover, and controlling slope land development to effectively mitigate the soil erosion risk in CYUA and promote regional sustainable development. The proposed comprehensive scenario analysis method provides new insights into future global small-scale regional predictions.

Understanding the process and mechanism of agricultural land transition in China: Based on the interactive conversion of cropland and natural ecological land

The interaction conversion between cropland (CL) and natural ecological land (NEL) provides critical insights into the processes of agricultural land transition. However, current frameworks and methodologies for systematically detecting and analyzing this transition are still insufficient and require further refinement. The objective of the study is to develop a theoretical model of agricultural land transition and examines its evolutionary processes in China. The findings reveal that the interactive conversion between CL and NEL exhibits symmetry in both temporal trajectories and spatial patterns. The agricultural land transition can be divided into three stages at the national level, characterized by a shift in the dominant conversion pattern: from NEL-to-CL, to CL-to-NEL, and then back to NEL-to-CL. However, significant imbalances are observed in the transition processes across various provinces. Over time, the four pathways of agricultural land transition-NEL-dominated to NEL-dominated, CL-dominated to CL-dominated, NEL-dominated to CL-dominated, and CL-dominated to NEL-dominated-have yet to progress simultaneously. The dominance of a single pathway gradually became more prominent, with its proportion in different provinces increasing from 25% in the early period to 40% in the later period. Among the various factors influencing agricultural land transition, resource utilization, socio-economic factors, and policy implementation have a stronger impact than natural and climatic conditions. Furthermore, resource flows and planning interventions drive the initial agricultural land transition, while urbanization and population growth induce the second phase. Overall, this study enhances the theoretical understanding of agricultural land transition and offers decision-making guidance for rational and orderly agricultural land use conversion. Its ultimate aim is to provide valuable insights into the sustainable utilization and efficient management of agricultural land globally.

Improving sustainable land use level with the aim of enhancing urban ecosystem service value: a case study of Xi'an in China

The supply capacity of urban ecosystem services is the foundation for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, due to the difficulty in reaching a consensus on the multiple attributes of land ecosystems, the coercion issue between land use change, the enhancement of ecosystem service value (ESV), and urban development is exposed. The objectives of the study are to improve land structure with the goal of enhancing ESV, based on the evaluation of the relationship between land use change and urban ESV. In response to the SDGs, an evaluation index system for sustainable land use (SLU) was constructed by comparing subgoals. Factor analysis was used to evaluate the SLU level. The impact of SLU level changes on ESV was explored by grouping regression. The logarithmic mean Divisia index was used to describe the contributions of various factors to ESV changes. The results indicated that ESV increased by 17.71%, but SLU comprehensive evaluation score decreased from 0.324 to -0.522. The changes in SLU level had varying effects on ESV. The main factors driving changes in ESV were ESV coefficient and total green space area, with average contributions of 198.32% and -98.32%, respectively. The study points out that differences in factors driving ESV changes provide potential opportunities for urban development. Improving SLU level is an important way to promote the realization of SDGs and improve urban ESV.

Pressure on Global Forests: Implications of Rising Vegetable Oils Consumption Under the EAT-Lancet Diet

Global food production faces significant challenges, acting as a primary driver of land use change, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while a significant part of the world's population still struggles with food security and nutrition. In response, the EAT-Lancet Commission has proposed a healthy and sustainable planetary diet aimed at reducing resource-intensive foods like meat, starchy vegetables, and eggs, while suggesting a 67% increase in global per capita unsaturated oil consumption (e.g., soybean, sunflower, rapeseed) and the maintenance of the current palm oil intake. Using a spatially explicit land allocation algorithm, we assess how future global food oil demand for the expected 9.2 billion people by 2050 might impact forests and other carbon-rich ecosystems, along with associated land use change GHG emissions. We also evaluate the potential consequences of substituting palm oil with other vegetable oils, noting their different health and environmental implications. Results show that the projected 74% rise in global vegetable oil production for food by 2050 would require 317 million hectares of land-a 68% increase compared to maintaining current consumption. This could escalate pressure on forests and threaten global food security, potentially causing 115-120 million hectares of deforestation and 1163-1210 Mt. CO2 per year of GHG emissions from land use change, an 87% rise compared to maintaining current consumption rates. However, the EAT-Lancet diet foresees a reduction in other high-impact foods, potentially freeing other lands and reducing overall projected global food GHG emissions. Another relevant finding reveals that replacing palm oil with other oils would result in increasing land needs, up to 385 million hectares with a potential 148 million hectares of deforestation, and GHG emissions, up to 1525 Mt. CO2 per year, thus not representing a conclusive and viable solution towards sustainability. Instead, along with the growing importance of certification schemes for sustainable and deforestation-free food supply chains, ensuring sustainable production of all vegetable oils emerges as a critical strategy to prevent the conversion of biodiverse and carbon-rich lands.

Understanding Uncertainty in Market-Mediated Responses to US Oilseed Biodiesel Demand: Sensitivity of ILUC Emission Estimates to GLOBIOM Parametric Uncertainty

The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of biofuels depend on uncertain estimates of induced land use change (ILUC) and subsequent emissions from carbon stock changes. Demand for oilseed-based biofuels is associated with particularly complex market and supply chain dynamics, which must be considered. Using the global partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM, this study explores the uncertainty in market-mediated impacts and ILUC-related emissions from increasing demand for soybean biodiesel in the United States in the period 2020-2050. A one-at-a-time (OAT) analysis and a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis are performed to assess the sensitivity of modeled ILUC-GHG emissions intensities (gCO2e/MJ) to varying key economic and biophysical model parameters. Additionally, the influence of the approach on the simulation of future ILUC effects is explored using two alternative ILUC-GHG metrics: a comparative-static approach for 2030 and a recursive-dynamic approach using model outputs through 2050. We find that projected ILUC-GHG values largely vary based on which vegetable oils replace diverted soybean oil, market responses to coproducts, and the carbon content of land converted for agricultural use. These are all, in turn, subject to decision uncertainty through the choice of the modeling approach and the time horizon considered for each ILUC-GHG metric. Given the longer simulation period, ILUC-GHG emission uncertainty ranges increase under the recursive-dynamic approach (42.4 ± 25.9 gCO2e/MJ) compared to the comparative-static approach (40.8 ± 20.5 gCO2e/MJ). The combination of MC analysis with other techniques such as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is powerful for understanding model behavior and clarifying the sensitivity of market responses, ILUC, and associated GHG emissions to specific model parameters when simulated with global economic models. The BART reveals that biophysical parameters generate more linear ILUC-GHG responses to changes in assumed parameter values while changes in economic parameters lead to more nonlinear ILUC-GHG results as multiple effects at the interplay of food, feed, and fuel uses overlap. The choice of the recursive-dynamic metric allows capturing the longer-term evolution of ILUC while generating additional uncertainties derived from the baseline definition.

Effects of urban sprawl due to migration on spatiotemporal land use-land cover change: a case study of Bartın in Türkiye

Rapid urban growth is a subject of worldwide interest due to environmental problems. Population growth, especially migration from rural to urban areas, leads to land use and land cover (LULCC) changes in urban centres. Therefore, LULCC and urban growth analyses are among the studies that will help decision-makers achieve better sustainable management and planning. The objective of this study was to ascertain the impact of urbanization, which resulted from migration, on the alterations in LULCC, with a particular focus on the changes in forest areas surrounding the Bartın city centre between 2000 and 2020. Spatial databases for two periods were used to determine changes in urban growth. The spatial and temporal LULCC patterns of land use were quantified by interpreting spatial data. Remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS) have been used for data collection, analysis, and presentation. The LULCC was assessed under nine classes using optical remote sensing methods on stand-type maps created from aerial photos. To determine how urban growth affects LULCC, land use status and transition matrices were created for each of the five sprawl zones around Bartın city. The annual change in forest areas is determined by the "annual forest rate". The results indicate that the urbanization of Bartın city from 2000 to 2020 increased by approximately 19% (2510645.82 m2). However, this did not harm the forests; cover increased by 10.32% (174729.65 m²) over the same period. The process of urbanization was particularly evident in open areas and agricultural zones. During this period, there was a 37% reduction in agricultural areas (2943229.85 m²) and a 59% reduction in open areas (1265457.76 m²). The sprawl of Bartın city can be attributed to changes in its demographic structure, which mainly includes the migration of the rural population to urban areas and the emergence of new job opportunities. Factors such as challenging urban living conditions, insecure environments because of the increase in temporary foreign asylum seekers, and retirees returning to their hometowns are believed to have contributed to this population growth.

Nonnegligible cascading impacts of global urban expansion on net primary productivity

Accelerated global urban expansion not only directly occupies surrounding ecosystems, but also induces cascading losses of natural vegetation elsewhere through cropland displacement. Yet, how such effects alter the net primary productivity (NPP) worldwide remains unclear. Here, we quantified the direct and cascading impacts of global urban expansion on terrestrial NPP from 1992 to 2020 and projected the impacts under the shared socioeconomic pathways framework by 2100. We found that global urban expansion caused a cascading loss of 29.2 to 63.9 Tg C/year of terrestrial NPP in the historical period (1992-2020), accounting for 13-29% of the total direct NPP loss. Instead, our projections indicate that during 2020-2100, mainly due to the increased relocation of displaced croplands to low-productive ecosystems, the cascading impacts gradually change from negative to positive, leading to a net NPP increase. Such an increase may offset up to 7% of the total direct NPP loss, better balancing crop compensation with NPP maintenance. Our findings highlight the unexpected large cascading impacts of urban expansion on the carbon cycle and stress the importance of regulating land transitions to curtail land-use emissions.

From tradition to smart: A comprehensive review of the evolution and prospects of land use planning tools

Land use planning tools are essential for effective land management. However, existing research has not thoroughly explored the evolution and future potential of these tools. This study addresses this gap through comprehensive literature review and data collection, mapping the progression of land use planning tools from their inception to their future trajectories. Our findings indicate that land use planning tools have evolved through four distinct epochs: 1.0 to 4.0. These epochs are defined as follows: Foundational Surveying Tools (1900s-1950s), Computerized Tools (1960s-1980s), Internet Technology Tools (1990s-2000s), and Smart Tools (2010s to Present). Presently, these tools face several limitations, including complex and redundant planning systems, poor adaptability, insufficient public engagement, and a lack of emphasis on sustainable development. Looking ahead, the emergence of the 5.0 era around the 2040s is anticipated, marked by advancements such as blockchain, VR/AR, quantum computing, and digital twins. This study provides valuable insights for scholars in the field and informs future development of land use planning tools.

Pesticide impacts on insect pollinators: Current knowledge and future research challenges

With the need to intensify agriculture to meet growing food demand, there has been significant rise in pesticide use to protect crops, but at different rates in different world regions. In 2016, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) global assessment on pollinators, pollination and food production identified pesticides as one of the major drivers of pollinator decline. This assessment highlighted that studies on the effects of pesticides on pollinating insects have been limited to only a few species, primarily from developed countries. Given the worldwide variation in the scale of intensive agricultural practices, pesticide application intensities are likely to vary regionally and consequently the associated risks for insect pollinators. We provide the first long-term, global analysis of inter-regional trends in the use of different classes of pesticide between 1995 and 2020 (FAOSTAT) and a review of literature since the IPBES pollination assessment (2016). All three pesticide classes use rates varied greatly with some countries seeing increased use by 3000 to 4000 % between 1995 and 2020, while for most countries, growth roughly doubled. We present forecast models to predict regional trends of different pesticides up to 2030. Use of all three pesticide classes is to increase in Africa and South America. Herbicide use is to increase in North America and Central Asia. Fungicide use is to increase across all Asian regions. In each of the respective regions, we also examined the number of studies since 2016 in relation to pesticide use trends over the past twenty-five years. Additionally, we present a comprehensive update on the status of knowledge on pesticide impacts on different pollinating insects from literature published during 2016-2022. Finally, we outline several research challenges and knowledge gaps with respect to pesticides and highlight some regional and international conservation efforts and initiatives that address pesticide reduction and/or elimination.

Land price, government debt, and land-use efficiency in the coastal cities of China under the constraint of land scarcity

Land scarcity poses a significant challenge for coastal cities in supporting sustainable urban development. This study quantifies the Land Scarcity Index (LSI) for 51 Chinese coastal cities from 2008 to 2018, revealing a phased increase and a transition to high scarcity levels. The findings reveal significant differences in the land price dynamics and fragmentation between commercial-residential and industrial land plots. Under LSI constraints, both commercial-residential and industrial land plots exhibit a trend of decreasing plot areas and increasing prices. We further explore the threshold effects of local government debt (LGD) on urban land-use efficiency, demonstrating that high LGD and LSI exacerbate the price scissors gap, adversely affecting land-use efficiency. Our findings show that, when LGD exceeds 10.43%, increased commercial-residential land prices enhance land-use efficiency, whereas below this threshold, they hinder it. Similarly, the land price scissors (LPS) gap between commercial-residential and industrial land negatively impacts land-use efficiency when LGD exceeds 14.59%. This study provides valuable insights into optimizing land fiscal policies, improving urban land-use efficiency, and addressing the challenge of land scarcity in China's coastal cities.

Regional food consumption in Italy, a life cycle analysis

Urbanization and globalization have led to an increasing concern and focus on the sustainability of the food sector, particularly in discussing the composition of consumers' diets. This study examines Italian consumption habits, categorizing them into four macro-geographical areas (North-West, North-East, Center, South, and Islands), utilizing public data obtained from surveys including 3323 individuals, and assesses their environmental impacts through the application of the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. The findings unveil distinct dietary patterns across Italian macro-regions, indicative of cultural disparities, and present avenues for promoting environmentally sustainable dietary choices. The study identifies meat consumption as the primary environmental concern across all macro-regions, with fish emerging as a secondary contributor to particulate matter formation. Pork and poultry exhibit notable impacts within toxicity-related categories. Additionally, the research underscores challenges in data collection, notably the absence of a site-specific Italian database, and underscores the necessity for more recent consumption data to accurately capture contemporary Italian dietary habits. Finally, the study demonstrates that addressing the issue from a macro-regional perspective allows for more targeted and dedicated cultural interventions.

Land use land cover change as a casual factor for climate variability and trends in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Climate change and land use dynamics are critical issues facing many regions worldwide, particularly in developing countries. This study examines the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and their impact on climate variability in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia, from 1994 to 2024. Utilizing multispectral satellite imagery from Landsat 5, 7, and 8, along with meteorological data from five weather stations, LULC classification was performed using the Random Forest algorithm on the Google Earth Engine platform. To analyze climatic variability and trends, the Mann-Kendall trend test, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Temperature Index (STI) were employed. The findings indicate a significant decline in forest cover, with an accelerated annual loss of approximately 4681.2 hectares between 2014 and 2024. Concurrently, agricultural land expanded by about 1141 hectares annually, and urban areas grew by 24.3 hectares per year in recent years. Seasonal mean rainfall variation showed significant declines in the upper catchment, with Bega (p = 0.004, Sen's slope =  - 3.819 mm), Belg (p = 0.006, Sen's slope =  - 7.972 mm), and Kiremt (p = 0.005, Sen's slope =  - 7.117 mm), while the lower catchment experienced a notable increase during the Belg season (p = 0.025, Sen's slope = 6.424 mm), highlighting uneven water availability across the watershed. Furthermore, pronounced warming trends were observed in the upper catchment (Bega: p = 0.002, Sen's slope = 0.029; Belg: p = 0.001, Sen's slope = 0.030; Kiremt: p = 0.004, Sen's slope = 0.018), with moderate warming noted in the middle catchment during the Kiremt season (p = 0.020, Sen's slope = 0.016). These LULC changes have significantly impacted climate variability, emphasizing the critical influence of human activities on regional climate dynamics. This study underscores the urgent need for sustainable land management and conservation strategies to mitigate the challenges posed by deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural expansion.

Belowground cascading biotic interactions trigger crop diversity benefits

Crop diversification practices offer numerous synergistic benefits. So far, research has traditionally been confined to exploring isolated, unidirectional single-process interactions among plants, soil, and microorganisms. Here, we present a novel and systematic perspective, unveiling the intricate web of plant-soil-microbiome interactions that trigger cascading effects. Applying the principles of cascading interactions can be an alternative way to overcome soil obstacles such as soil compaction and soil pathogen pressure. Finally, we introduce a research framework comprising the design of diversified cropping systems by including commercial varieties and crops with resource-efficient traits, the exploration of cascading effects, and the innovation of field management. We propose that this provides theoretical and methodological insights that can reveal new mechanisms by which crop diversity increases productivity.

Does rising land price promote the circulation industry development? An analysis of internet-based moderating effects

With the rapid development of the Internet, digital technology is increasingly integrating into the modern circulation system. The influence mechanisms of land prices on the development of the circulation industry are gradually transforming. Using data from 104 major cities in China from 2003 to 2021, this study uses the panel two-way fixed effects model, moderating effects model and threshold regression method to examine the mechanisms by which land prices affect the circulation industry development and the moderating role of Internet development. The results show that elevated land prices significantly stimulate the growth of the circulation industry, leading to an expansion in the circulation industry scale, optimization of its structure, and enhancement of its facilities. The findings remain robust even after addressing endogeneity concerns and conducting various robustness tests. Moreover, the impact of high land prices on the circulation industry is more pronounced in small and medium-sized cities group as well as central region cities group. Real estate investment and industrial structure upgrading are the key channels through which high land prices promote the development of the circulation industry. Additionally, Internet development has a positive moderating effect on the promotion that high land prices stimulate the development of the circulation industry. Notably, only when Internet development surpasses a certain threshold that the promotional effect of land prices on the circulation industry development be fully realized. Based on the above conclusions, the government should continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of land elements, implement precise industrial policy support for the circulation industry and promote circulation digital transformation.

Road fragment edges enhance wildfire incidence and intensity, while suppressing global burned area

Landscape fragmentation is statistically correlated with both increases and decreases in wildfire burned area (BA). These different directions-of-impact are not mechanistically understood. Here, road density, a land fragmentation proxy, is implemented in a CMIP6 coupled land-fire model, to represent fragmentation edge effects on fire-relevant environmental variables. Fragmentation caused modelled BA changes of over ±10% in 16% of [0.5°] grid-cells. On average, more fragmentation decreased net BA globally (-1.5%), as estimated empirically. However, in recently-deforested tropical areas, fragmentation drove observationally-consistent BA increases of over 20%. Globally, fragmentation-driven fire BA decreased with increasing population density, but was a hump-shaped function of it in forests. In some areas, fragmentation-driven decreases in BA occurred alongside higher-intensity fires, suggesting the decoupling of fire severity traits. This mechanistic model provides a starting point for quantifying policy-relevant fragmentation-fire impacts, whose results suggest future forest degradation may shift fragmentation from net global fire inhibitor to net fire driver.

Residential land structure affects residential welfare: Linear and non-linear effects

The non-equilibrium phenomenon of residential land structure should be accorded particular importance when discussing residential welfare. Based on balanced panel data at the provincial level in China from 2009 to 2017, this study constructed an indicator to measure the residential welfare level using a multi-dimensional approach. It explored residential land structure's impact on residential welfare and its mechanism of action under carbon emissions and urbanization from both linear and non-linear perspectives. An orderly residential land structure was found to significantly positively affect residential welfare and this effect varies among provincial cities. Per the mechanism analysis, in the process of the residential land structure's impact on residential welfare, urbanization's mediating effect is influenced by the environment, whereas carbon emissions' moderating effect is partially influenced by urbanization. These insights contribute to the residential welfare literature and provide actionable recommendations for policy implementation in developing regions.

Disproportionate contributions of land cover and changes to ecosystem functions in Kazakhstan and Mongolia

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) have profoundly altered land surface properties and ecosystem functions, including carbon and water production. While mapping these changes from local to global scales has become more achievable due to advancements in earth observations and remote sensing, linking land cover changes to ecosystem functions remains challenging, especially at regional scale. Our study attempts to fill this gap by employing a computationally efficient method and two types of widely used high-resolution satellite images. We first investigated the contribution of landscape composition to ecosystem function by examining how land cover and proportion affected gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) at six macro-landscapes in Mongolia and Kazakhstan. We hypothesized that both ecosystem and landscape GPP and ET are disproportionate to their composition and, therefore, changes in land cover will have asymmetrical influences on landscape functions. We leveraged a computational-friendly linear downscaling approach to align the coarse spatial resolution of MODIS (500 m) with a fine-grain and localized land cover map developed from Landsat (30 m) for six provinces in countries where intensive LULCC occurred in recent decades. By establishing two metrics-function to composition ratio (F/C) and function to changes in composition change (ΔF/ΔC)-we tested our hypothesis and evaluated the impact of land cover change on ecosystem functions within and among the landscapes. Our results show three major themes. (1) The five land cover types have signature downscaled ET and GPP that appears to vary between the two countries as well as within each country. (2) F/C of ET and GPP of forests is statistically greater than 1 (i.e., over-contributing), whereas F/C of grasslands and croplands is close to or slightly less than 1 (i.e., under-contribution). F/C of barrens is clearly lower than 1 but greater than zero. Specifically, a unit of forest generates 1.085 unit of ET and 1.123 unit of GPP, a unit of grassland generates 0.993 unit of ET and GPP, and a unit of cropland produces 0.987 unit of ET and 0.983 unit of GPP. The divergent F/C values among the land cover classes support the hypothesis that landscape function is disproportionate to its composition. (3) ΔET/ΔC and ΔGPP/ΔC of forests and croplands showed negative values, while grasslands and barrens showed positive values, indicating that converting a unit of forest to other land cover leads to a decrease in ET and GPP, while converting units of grassland or barren to other land cover classes will result in increased ET and GPP. This linear downscaling approach for calculating F/C and ΔF/ΔC is labor-saving and cost-effective for rapid assessment on the impact of land use land cover change on ecosystem functions.

Globalization of wild capture and farmed aquatic foods

Aquatic foods are highly traded, with nearly 60 million tonnes exported in 2020, representing 11% of global agriculture trade by value. Despite the vast scale, basic characteristics of aquatic food trade, including species, origin, and farmed vs wild sourcing, are largely unknown due to the reporting of trade data. Consequently, we have a coarse picture of aquatic food trade and consumption patterns. Here, we present results from a database on species trade that aligns production, conversion factors, and trade to compute apparent consumption for all farmed and wild aquatic foods from 1996 to 2020. Over this period, aquatic foods became increasingly globalized, with the share of production exported increasing by 40%. Importantly, trends differ across aquatic food sectors. Global consumption also increased by 19.4% despite declining marine capture consumption, and some regions became increasingly reliant on foreign-sourced aquatic foods. To identify sustainable diet opportunities among aquatic foods, our findings, and underlying database enable a greater understanding of the role of trade in rapidly evolving aquatic food systems.

Global human obesity and political globalization; asymmetric relationship through world human development levels

Purpose - Political globalization is a crucial and distinct component of strengthening global organizations. Obesity is a global epidemic in a few nations, and it is on the verge of becoming a pandemic that would bring plenty of diseases. This research aims to see how the political globalization index affects worldwide human obesity concerning global human development levels. Methods- To assess any cross-sectional dependence among observed 109 nations, the yearly period from 1990 to 2017 is analyzed using second generation panel data methods. KAO panel cointegration test and Fully Modified Least Square model were used to meet our objectives. Finding- Low level of political globalization tends to increase global human obesity because countries cannot sway international decisions and resources towards them. While the high level of political globalization tends to reduce obesity because it can control and amends international decisions. For the regression model, a fully modified Least Square model was utilized. The study observed that the R squared values for all models are healthy, with a minimum of 87 percent variables explaining differences in global obesity at the country level. Originality: There is very important to tackle the globalization issue to reduce global human obesity. With the simplicity of dietary options and the amount of physical labour they undergo in their agricultural duties, an increase in rural population percentage tends to lower the average national obesity value.

Analysis of food system drivers of deforestation highlights foreign direct investments and urbanization as threats to tropical forests

Approximately 90% of global forest cover changes between 2000 and 2018 were attributable to agricultural expansion, making food production the leading direct driver of deforestation. While previous studies have focused on the interaction between human and environmental systems, limited research has explored deforestation from a food system perspective. This study analyzes the drivers of deforestation in 40 tropical and subtropical countries (2004-2021) through the lenses of consumption/demand, production/supply and trade/distribution using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. Our models explained a substantial portion of deforestation variability globally (R2 = 0.74) and in Asia (R2 = 0.81) and Latin America (R2 = 0.73). The results indicate that trade- and demand-side dynamics, specifically foreign direct investments and urban population growth, play key roles in influencing deforestation trends at these scales, suggesting that food system-based interventions could be effective in mitigating deforestation. Conversely, the model for Africa showed weaker explanatory power (R2 = 0.30), suggesting that factors beyond the food system may play a larger role in this region. Our findings highlight the importance of targeting trade- and demand-side dynamics to reduce deforestation and how interventions within the food system could synergistically contribute to achieving sustainable development goals, such as climate action, life on land and zero hunger.

Evolutionary Perspectives on Human-Artificial Intelligence Convergence

In this analytical review, we explore the potential impact of the rapid proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools on the biosphere and noosphere, suggesting that the trend may lead to a transformative event that could be termed "Human-AI integration." We argue that this integration could give rise to novel lifeforms, associations, and hierarchies, resulting in competitive advantages and increased complexity of structural organizations within both the biosphere and noosphere. Our central premise emphasizes the importance of human-AI integration as a global adaptive response crucial for our civilization's survival amidst a rapidly changing environment. The convergence may initially manifest itself through symbiotic, endosymbiotic, or other mutualistic relationships, such as domestication, contingent on the rate at which AI systems achieve autonomy and develop survival instincts akin to those of biological organisms. We investigate potential drivers of these scenarios, addressing the ethical and existential challenges arising from the AI-driven transformation of the biosphere and noosphere, and considering potential trade-offs. Additionally, we discuss the application of complexity and the balance between competition and cooperation to better comprehend and navigate these transformative scenarios.

Remittance from migrants reinforces forest recovery for China's reforestation policy

Forests play a key role in the mitigation of global warming and provide many other vital ecosystem goods and services. However, as forest continues to vanish at an alarming rate from the surface of the planet, the world desperately needs knowledge on what contributes to forest preservation and restoration. Migration, a hallmark of globalization, is widely recognized as a main driver of forest recovery and poverty alleviation. Here, we show that remittance from migrants reinforces forest recovery that would otherwise be unlikely with mere migration, realizing the additionality of payments for ecosystem services for China's largest reforestation policy, the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP). Guided by the framework that integrates telecoupling and coupled natural and human systems, we investigate forest-livelihood dynamics under the CCFP through the lens of rural out-migration and remittance using both satellite remote sensing imagery and household survey data in two representative sites of rural China. Results show that payments from the CCFP significantly increases the probability of sending remittance by out-migrants to their origin households. We observe substantial forest regeneration and greening surrounding households receiving remittance but forest decline and browning in proximity to households with migrants but not receiving remittance, as measured by forest coverage and the Enhanced Vegetation Index derived from space-borne remotely sensed data. The primary mechanism is that remittance reduces the reliance of households on natural capital from forests, particularly fuelwood, allowing forests near the households to recover. The shares of the estimated ecological and economic additionality induced by remittance are 2.0% (1.4%∼3.8%) and 9.7% (5.0%∼15.2%), respectively, to the baseline of the reforested areas enrolled in CCFP and the payments received by the participating households. Remittance-facilitated forest regeneration amounts to 12.7% (6.0%∼18.0%) of the total new forest gained during the 2003-2013 in China. Our results demonstrate that remittance constitutes a telecoupling mechanism between rural areas and cities over long distances, influencing the local social-ecological gains that the forest policy intended to stimulate. Thus, supporting remittance-sending migrants in cities can be an effective global warming mitigation strategy.

How urban growth dynamics impact the air quality? A case of eight Indian metropolitan cities

Air pollution is a matter of great significance that confronts the sustainable progress of urban areas. Against India's swift urbanization, several urban areas exhibit the coexistence of escalating populace and expansion in developed regions alongside extensive spatial heterogeneity. The interaction mechanism between the growth of urban areas and the expansion of cities holds immense importance for the remediation of air pollution. Henceforth, the present investigation utilizes geographically weighted regression (GWR) to examine the influence of urban expansion and population growth on air quality. The examination will use a decade of data on the variation in PM2.5 levels from 2010 to 2020 in eight Indian metropolitan cities. The study's findings demonstrate a spatial heterogeneity between urban growth dynamics and air pollution levels. Urban growth and the expansion of cities demonstrate notable positive impacts on air quality, although the growth of infilling within expanding urban areas can significantly affect air quality. Given the unique trajectories of urban development in developing countries, this research provides many suggestions for urban administrators to foster sustainable urban growth.

Projected patterns of land uses in Africa under a warming climate

Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity loss, projection and future land use change often consider a topical issue in response to climate change. Yet few studies have projected land-use changes over Africa, owing to large uncertainties. We project changes in land-use and land-use transfer under future climate for three specified time periods: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100, and compares the performance of various scenarios using observational land-use data for the year 2020 and projected land-use under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios (SSP): SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 from 2015 to 2100 in Africa. The observational land-use types for the year 2020 depict a change and show linear relationship between observational and simulated land-use with a strong correlation of 0.89 (P < 0.01) over Africa. Relative to the reference period (1995-2014), for (2021-2040), (2041-2060), (2081-2100), barren land and forest land are projected to decrease by an average of (6%, 11%, 16%), (9%, 19%, 38%) respectively, while, crop land, grassland and urban land area are projected to increase by (36%, 58%, and 105%), (4%, 7% and 11%), and (139%, 275% and 450%) respectively. Results show a substantial variations of land use transfer between scenarios with major from barren land to crop land, for the whole future period (2015-2100). Although SSP4-3.4 project the least transfer. Population and GDP show a relationship with cropland and barren land. The greatest conversion of barren land to crop land could endanger biodiversity and have negative effects on how well the African continent's ecosystem's function.

New criteria for sustainable land use planning of metropolitan green infrastructures in the tropical Andes

Context

Urbanization is rapidly increasing worldwide, with about 60% of the global population currently residing in cities and expected to reach 68% by 2050. In Latin America's tropical Andes region, managing these changes poses challenges, including biodiversity loss and vulnerability to climate change.

Objectives

This study assesses urban growth and agricultural intensification impacts on the ecological functionality of metropolitan green infrastructures and their capacity to provide ecosystem services using a landscape sustainability and sociometabolic approach. Specifically, it aims to identify landscape configurations promoting socio-ecological sustainability amidst rapid urbanization.

Methods

A landscape-metabolic model (IDC) was applied to evaluate the interactions between land use changes and ecosystem functions in the metropolitan region of Cali.

Results

Agricultural intensification and industrialization, coupled with uncontrolled urban growth, have significantly transformed the landscape, posing threats to its sustainability. The prevailing biocultural landscapes hold a substantial potential to provide essential ecosystem services to the metropolis. The IDC offers an approach that utilizes a land cover map and agricultural production/metabolism data to calculate an indicator closely related to ecosystem services and multifunctionality.

Conclusions

The IDC model stands out for efficiently capturing landscape dynamics, providing insights into landscape configuration and social metabolism without extensive resource requirements. This research highlights the importance of adopting a landscape-metabolic and green infrastructure framework to guide territorial policies in the tropical Andes and similar regions. It stresses the need for informed land use planning to address challenges and leverage opportunities presented by biocultural landscapes for regional sustainability amidst rapid urbanization and agricultural expansion.

Leopard density and determinants of space use in a farming landscape in South Africa

Protected areas are traditionally the foundation of conservation strategy, but land not formally protected is of particular importance for the conservation of large carnivores because of their typically wide-ranging nature. In South Africa, leopard (Panthera pardus) population decreases are thought to be occurring in areas of human development and intense negative interactions, but research is biased towards protected areas, with quantitative information on population sizes and trends in non-protected areas severely lacking. Using Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture and occupancy techniques including 10 environmental and anthropogenic covariates, we analysed camera trap data from commercial farmland in South Africa where negative human-wildlife interactions are reported to be high. Our findings demonstrate that leopards persist at a moderate density (2.21 /100 km2) and exhibit signs of avoidance from areas where lethal control measures are implemented. This suggests leopards have the potential to navigate mixed mosaic landscapes effectively, enhancing their chances of long-term survival and coexistence with humans. Mixed mosaics of agriculture that include crops, game and livestock farming should be encouraged and, providing lethal control is not ubiquitous in the landscape, chains of safer spaces should permit vital landscape connectivity. However, continuing to promote non-lethal mitigation techniques remains vital.

Integrating forest restoration into land-use planning at large spatial scales

Forest restoration is being scaled up globally, carrying major expectations of environmental and societal benefits. Current discussions on ensuring the effectiveness of forest restoration are predominantly focused on the land under restoration per se. But this focus neglects the critical issue that land use and its drivers at larger spatial scales have strong implications for forest restoration outcomes, through the influence of landscape context and, importantly, potential off-site impacts of forest restoration that must be accounted for in measuring its effectiveness. To ensure intended restoration outcomes, it is crucial to integrate forest restoration into land-use planning at spatial scales large enough to account for - and address - these larger-scale influences, including the protection of existing native ecosystems. In this review, we highlight this thus-far neglected issue in conceptualizing forest restoration for the delivery of multiple desirable benefits regarding biodiversity and ecosystem services. We first make the case for the need to integrate forest restoration into large-scale land-use planning, by reviewing current evidence on the landscape-level influences and off-site impacts pertaining to forest restoration. We then discuss how science can guide the integration of forest restoration into large-scale land-use planning, by laying out key features of methodological frameworks required, reviewing the extent to which existing frameworks carry these features, and identifying methodological innovations needed to bridge the potential shortfall. Finally, we critically review the status of existing methods and data to identify future research efforts needed to advance these methodological innovations and, more broadly, the effective integration of forest restoration design into large-scale land-use planning.

Effects of emissions caps on the costs and feasibility of low-carbon hydrogen in the European ammonia industry

The European ammonia industry emits 36 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, primarily from steam methane reforming (SMR) hydrogen production. These emissions can be mitigated by producing hydrogen via water electrolysis using dedicated renewables with grid backup. This study investigates the impact of decarbonization targets for hydrogen synthesis on the economic viability and technical feasibility of retrofitting existing European ammonia plants for on-site, semi-islanded electrolytic hydrogen production. Results show that electrolytic hydrogen cuts emissions, on average, by 85% (36%-100% based on grid price and carbon intensity), even without enforcing emission limits. However, an optimal lifespan average well-to-gate emission cap of 1 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)/kg H2 leads to a 95% reduction (92%-100%) while maintaining cost-competitiveness with SMR in renewable-rich regions (mean levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of 4.1 euro/kg H2). Conversely, a 100% emissions reduction target dramatically increases costs (mean LCOH: 6.3 euro/kg H2) and land area for renewables installations, likely hindering the transition to electrolytic hydrogen in regions with poor renewables and limited land. Increasing plant flexibility effectively reduces costs, particularly in off-grid plants (mean reduction: 32%). This work guides policymakers in defining cost-effective decarbonization targets and identifying region-based strategies to support an electrolytic hydrogen-fed ammonia industry.

Air pollutant emissions caused by receiving international industrial transfer in Southeast Asian developing countries from 1990 to 2018

Receiving international industrial transfer (mainly foreign direct investment, FDI) is extremely important for economic development but also brings negative environmental impacts for Southeast Asian developing countries (SEADCs). Due to relatively low labor costs and large market potential, SEADCs have become an attractive destination for industrial transfer after China, while studies were far from sufficient on the associated air pollutant emissions that would worsen air quality and threaten human health. We develop an exploratory framework to estimate the long-term trends of relevant air pollutant emissions in eight major SEADCs, including Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. During 1990-2018, the emissions generally show a fluctuating upward trend and increased significantly in Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, and Vietnam. The total emissions of CO, NMVOC, SO2, NOX, PM2.5, and NH3 from the eight SEADCs increased from 19.0, 4.3, 3.6, 1.5, 0.5, and 0.4 kilotons (kt) to 391.6, 260.9, 271.1, 182.4, 48.4, and 12.2 kt, respectively. The emission growth in almost all SEADCs accelerated after 2008 and faster than FDI growth. The disparities in emissions among SEADCs basically grew first and then declined to a level lower than that of 1990, but generally exceeded the disparities in FDI. Productivity gain and emission intensity decrease primarily caused the emission growth and reduction, respectively. Relatively small reductions in emission intensity are found for NOX and SO2. In general, most SEADCs have utilized FDI for economic development without sufficient efforts on air pollutant emission controls. Our outcomes can inform the formulation and optimization of relevant policies reconciling economic development and air quality improvement in SEADCs.

Land-use simulation for synergistic pollution and carbon reduction: Scenario analysis and policy implications

Simulations of sustainable land use and management are required to achieve targets to reduce pollution and carbon emissions. Limited research has been conducted on synergistic pollution and carbon reduction (SPCR) in land-use simulations. This study proposed a framework for land-use simulation focused on SPCR. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ) and the entropy weight-based technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) were used to optimize the land-use structure according to minimum net carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus emissions. The cellular automata (CA) Markov model was then utilized to simulate the land-use spatial pattern according to the optimal conditions. The proposed framework was applied to the Dongjiang River Basin, South China, and three other scenarios (natural development (ND), carbon minimization (CM), and pollution minimization (PM)) were designed to validate the effectiveness of pollution and carbon emissions reduction under the SPCR scenario. The land-use structure and the pollution and carbon emissions in the scenarios were compared. The results showed the following. (1) The proportions of cultivated land, woodland, grassland, water, and construction land In the SPCR scenario accounted for 14%, 72%, 4%, 3%, and 7% of the total area, respectively. The carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus emissions were 42.4%, 6.6%, and 7.8% lower, respectively, in the SPCR scenario than in the ND scenario, demonstrating the advantages of simultaneous pollution and carbon reduction. (2) The kappa coefficient of the CA-Markov model was 0.8729, indicating high simulation accuracy. (3) The simulated land-use spatial patterns exhibited low spatial heterogeneity under the CM, PM, and SPCR scenarios. However, there were significant disparities between the ND and SPCR scenarios. The cultivated and construction land areas were significantly smaller in the SPCR scenario than in the ND scenario. In contrast, the woodland and grassland areas were larger, with most differences in the central and southwestern regions of the Dongjiang River Basin. The results of the current study can be used to formulate effective land use policies and strategies in the Dongjiang Basin and similar areas to achieve the Coupling coordination between pollution reduction and carbon reduction. Policy recommendations include increasing the proportion of woodland and grassland, implementing reasonable constraints on expanding cultivated and construction lands, and establishing farmland red lines to promote synergistic pollution and carbon reduction.

Land-use intensification dominates China's land provisioning services: From the perspective of land system science

A pressing challenge to global sustainability is meeting the escalating needs of a growing population while safeguarding land resources from degradation. In recent decades, China's rapid growth, expanding population, urban sprawl, and diminishing high-quality farmland have presented a compelling case suitable for exploring solutions and challenges related to this critical issue. Therefore, there is an urgent need for comprehensive and detailed information regarding land systems. Here, we developed the first fine-scale dataset of the China Land System at a spatial resolution of 1 km, covering the period from 2000 to 2015. By leveraging this comprehensive land information, we identified five primary types of land systems and their respective subsystems, thereby delineating distinct patterns of human-environmental interaction. Land system dynamics followed diverse developmental trajectories characterized by incremental shifts toward more functionally centralized systems. Land use intensification played a significant role in increasing the population capacity and food production in China, contributing nearly 93.94% and 84.99%, respectively. In contrast, land cover changes accounted for only 4.69% and 11.43%, respectively. These findings underscore the tendency of previous studies to overestimate the impact of land cover change and underestimate the influence of land use intensification in meeting the growing demands of land-based production. This study emphasizes the importance of transcending traditional land cover-based approaches and integrating land systems into land representation and global land change scenario simulations to promote sustainability.

Impacts of mining on vegetation phenology and sensitivity assessment of spectral vegetation indices to mining activities in arid/semi-arid areas

Measuring the impact of mining activities on vegetation phenology and assessing the sensitivity of vegetation indices (VIs) to it are crucial for understanding land degradation in mining areas and enhancing the carbon sink capacity following the ecological restoration of mines. To this end, we have developed a novel technical framework to quantify the impact of mining activities on vegetation, and applied it to the Bainaimiao copper mining area in Inner Mongolia. Phenological indices are extracted based on the VI time series data of Sentinel-2, and changes in phenological differences in various directions are used to quantify the impact of mining activities on vegetation. Finally, indicators such as mean difference, standard deviation, index value distribution interval, and concentration of index value distribution were selected to assess the sensitivity of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Green Chlorophyll Index (GCI), Global Environmental Monitoring Index (GEMI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Renormalized Difference Vegetation Index (RDVI), Red-Edge Chlorophyll Index (RECI), and Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) to mining activities. The results of the study show that the impact of mining activities on surrounding vegetation extends to an area three times larger than the actual mining activity area. When compared with the reference and unaffected areas, the affected area experienced a delay of approximately 10 days in seasonal vegetation development. Environmental pollution caused by the tailings pond was identified as the primary factor influencing this delay. Significant variations in the sensitivity of each VI to assess mining activities in arid/semi-arid areas were observed. Notably, GCI, GNDVI and RDVI displayed relatively high sensitivity to discrepancies in the spectral attributes of vegetation within the affected area, while SAVI reflected the overall spectral stability of the vegetation in the affected area. The research findings have the potential to provide valuable technical guidance for holistic environmental management in mining areas and hold great significance in preventing further land degradation and supporting ecological restoration in mining areas.

A systematic review of the methodology of trade-off analysis in agriculture

Trade-off analysis (TOA) is central to policy and decision-making aimed at promoting sustainable agricultural landscapes. Yet, a generic methodological framework to assess trade-offs in agriculture is absent, largely due to the wide range of research disciplines and objectives for which TOA is used. In this study, we systematically reviewed 119 studies that have implemented TOAs in landscapes and regions dominated by agricultural systems around the world. Our results highlight that TOAs tend to be unbalanced, with a strong emphasis on productivity rather than environmental and socio-cultural services. TOAs have mostly been performed at farm or regional scales, rarely considering multiple spatial scales simultaneously. Mostly, TOAs fail to include stakeholders at study development stage, disregard recommendation uncertainty due to outcome variability and overlook risks associated with the TOA outcomes. Increased attention to these aspects is critical for TOAs to guide agricultural landscapes towards sustainability.

The water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus in the Danube River Basin: Exploring scenarios and implications of maize irrigation

The Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus concept postulates that water, energy production, agriculture and ecosystems are closely interlinked. In transboundary river basins, different sectors and countries compete for shared water resources. In the Danube River Basin (DRB), possible expansion of agricultural irrigation is expected to intensify water competition in the WEFE nexus, however, trade-offs have not yet been quantified. Here, we quantified trade-offs between agriculture, hydropower and (aquatic) ecosystems in the DRB resulting from maize irrigation when irrigation water was withdrawn from rivers. Using the process-based hydro-agroecological model PROMET, we simulated three maize scenarios for the period 2011-2020: (i) rainfed; (ii) irrigated near rivers without considering environmental flow requirements (EFRs); (iii) irrigated near rivers with water abstractions complying with EFRs. Maize yield and water use efficiency (WUE) increased by 101-125 % and 29-34 % under irrigation compared to rainfed cultivation. Irrigation water withdrawals from rivers resulted in moderate to severe discharge reductions and, without consideration of EFRs, to substantial EFR infringements. Annual hydropower production decreased by 1.0-1.9 % due to discharge reductions. However, the financial turnover increase in agriculture (5.8-7.2 billion €/a) was two orders of magnitude larger than the financial turnover decrease in hydropower (23.9-47.8 million €/a), making water more profitable in agriculture. Irrigation WUE was highest for EFR-compliant irrigation, indicating that maintaining EFRs is economically beneficial and that improving WUE is key to attenuating nexus water competition. Current maize production could be met on the most productive 35-41 % of current maize cropland under irrigation, allowing 59-65 % to be returned to nature without loss of production. Maize priority areas were on fertile lowlands near major rivers, while biodiversity priority areas were on marginal cropland of highest biodiversity intactness. Our quantitative trade-off analysis can help identifying science-based pathways for sustainable WEFE nexus management in the DRB, also in light of climate change.

Deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions could arise when replacing palm oil with other vegetable oils

Oil crops are among the main drivers of global land use changes. Palm oil is possibly the most criticized, as a driver of primary tropical forests loss. This has generated two different reactions in its use in various sectors (e.g., food, feed, biodiesel, surfactant applications, etc.): from one side there is a growing claim for deforestation-free palm oil, whereas on the other side the attention raised towards other vegetable oils as possible substitutes, such as soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil. We assess potential land use changes and consequent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for switching from palm oil to other oils and compare this solution to deforestation-free palm oils. We consider three scenarios of 25 %, 50 % and 100 % palm oil replacement in the eight major oil crop producing countries. Total GHG emissions account for anthropogenic emissions generated along the life cycle of the field production process and potential forest carbon stock losses from land use change for oil crops expansion. Replacing palm oil with other oils would have a worthless effect in terms of global emissions reduction since GHG emissions remain approximatively stable across the three scenarios, whereas it would produce a deforestation increase of 28.2 to 51.9 Mha worldwide (or 7 to 21.5 Mha if excluding the unlikely deforestation in USA, Russia, Ukraine and the offset deforestation in China, India). Conversely, if the global palm oil production becomes deforestation-free, its GHG emissions would be reduced by 92 %, switching from the current 371 to 29 Mt CO2eq per year. Although highlighting the historical unsustainability of oil palm plantations, results show that replacing them with other oil crops almost never represents a more sustainable solution, thus potentially questioning sustainability claims of palm oil free products with respect to deforestation-free palm oil.

Modeling the Brazilian Cerrado land use change highlights the need to account for private property sizes for biodiversity conservation

Simulating future land use changes can be an important tool to support decision-making, especially in areas that are experiencing rapid anthropogenic pressure, such as the Cerrado-Brazilian savanna. Here we used a spatially-explicit model to identify the main drivers of native vegetation loss in the Cerrado and then extrapolate this loss for 2050 and 2070. We also analyzed the role of property size in complex Brazilian environmental laws in determining different outcomes of these projections. Our results show that distance to rivers, roads, and cities, agricultural potential, permanent and annual crop agriculture, and cattle led to observed/historical loss of vegetation, while protected areas prevented such loss. Assuming full adoption of the current Forest Code, the Cerrado may lose 26.5 million ha (± 11.8 95% C.I.) of native vegetation by 2050 and 30.6 million ha (± 12.8 95% C.I.) by 2070, and this loss shall occur mainly within large properties. In terms of reconciling conservation and agricultural production, we recommend that public policies focus primarily on large farms, such as protecting 30% of the area of properties larger than 2500 ha, which would avoid a loss of more than 4.1 million hectares of native vegetation, corresponding to 13% of the predicted loss by 2070.

Climate change and geo-environmental factors influencing desertification: a critical review

The problem of desertification (DSF) is one of the most severe environmental disasters which influence the overall condition of the environment. In Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit on Environment and Development (1922), DSF is defined as arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid induced LD and that is adopted at the UNEP's Nairobi ad hoc meeting in 1977. It has been seen that there is no variability in the trend of long-term rainfall, but the change has been found in the variability of temperature (avg. temp. 0-5 °C). There is no proof that the air pollution brought on by CO2 and other warming gases is the cause of this rise, which seems to be partially caused by urbanization. The two types of driving factors in DSF-CC (climate change) along with anthropogenic influences-must be compared in order to work and take action to stop DSF from spreading. The proportional contributions of human activity and CC to DSF have been extensively evaluated in this work from "qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative" perspectives. In this study, we have tried to connect the drives of desertification to desertification-induced migration due to loss of biodiversity and agriculture failure. The authors discovered that several of the issues from the earlier studies persisted. The policy-makers should follow the proper SLM (soil and land management) through using the land. The afforestation with social forestry and consciousness among the people can reduce the spreading of the desertification (Badapalli et al. 2023). The green wall is also playing an important role to reduce the desertification. For instance, it was clear that assessments were subjective; they could not be readily replicated, and they always relied on administrative areas rather than being taken and displayed in a continuous space. This research is trying to fulfill the mentioned research gap with the help of the existing literatures related to this field.

Mapping land-use and land-cover changes through the integration of satellite and airborne remote sensing data

An integrated, remotely sensed approach to assess land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) dynamics plays an important role in environmental monitoring, management, and policy development. In this study, we utilized the advantage of land-cover seasonality, canopy height, and spectral characteristics to develop a phenology-based classification model (PCM) for mapping the annual LULCC in our study areas. Monthly analysis of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and near-infrared (NIR) values derived from SPOT images enabled the detection of temporal characteristics of each land type, serving as crucial indices for land type classification. The integration of normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) derived from Landsat images and airborne LiDAR canopy height into the PCM resulted in an overall performance of 0.85, slightly surpassing that of random forest analysis or principal component analysis. The development of PCM can reduce the time and effort required for manual classification and capture annual LULCC changes among five major land types: forests, built-up land, inland water, agriculture land, and grassland/shrubs. The gross change LULCC analysis for the Taoyuan Tableland demonstrated fluctuations in land types over the study period (2013 to 2022). A negative correlation (r =  - 0.79) in area changes between grassland/shrubs and agricultural land and a positive correlation (r = 0.47) between irrigation ponds and agricultural land were found. Event-based LULCC analysis for Taipei City demonstrated a balance between urbanization and urban greening, with the number of urbanization events becoming comparable to urban greening events when the spatial extent of LULCC events exceeds 1000 m2. Besides, small-scale urban greening events are frequently discovered and distributed throughout the metropolitan area of Taipei City, emphasizing the localized nature of urban greening events.

Land-use change from market responses to oil palm intensification in Indonesia

Oil palm is a major driver of tropical deforestation. A key intervention proposed to reduce the footprint of oil palm is intensifying production to free up spare land for nature, yet the indirect land-use implications of intensification through market forces are poorly understood. We used a spatially explicit land-rent modeling framework to characterize the supply and demand of oil palm in Indonesia under multiple yield improvement and demand elasticity scenarios and explored how shifts in market equilibria alter projections of crop expansion. Oil palm supply was sensitive to crop prices and yield improvements. Across all our scenarios, intensification raised agricultural rents and lowered the effectiveness of reductions in crop expansion. Increased yields lowered oil palm prices, but these price-drops were not sufficient to prevent further cropland expansion from increased agricultural rents under a range of price elasticities of demand. Crucially, we found that agricultural intensification might only result in land being spared when the demand relationship was highly inelastic and crop prices were very low (i.e., a 70% price reduction). Under this scenario, the extent of land spared (∼0.32 million ha) was countered by the continued establishment of new plantations (∼1.04 million ha). Oil palm intensification in Indonesia could exacerbate current pressures on its imperiled biodiversity and should be deployed with stronger spatial planning and enforcement to prevent further cropland expansion.

Migration and sustainable development

To understand the implications of migration for sustainable development requires a comprehensive consideration of a range of population movements and their feedback across space and time. This Perspective reviews emerging science at the interface of migration studies, demography, and sustainability, focusing on consequences of migration flows for nature-society interactions including on societal outcomes such as inequality; environmental causes and consequences of involuntary displacement; and processes of cultural convergence in sustainability practices in dynamic new populations. We advance a framework that demonstrates how migration outcomes result in identifiable consequences on resources, environmental burdens and well-being, and on innovation, adaptation, and challenges for sustainability governance. We elaborate the research frontiers of migration for sustainability science, explicitly integrating the full spectrum of regular migration decisions dominated by economic motives through to involuntary displacement due to social or environmental stresses. Migration can potentially contribute to sustainability transitions when it enhances well-being while not exacerbating structural inequalities or compound uneven burdens on environmental resources.

Climatic comparison of surface urban heat island using satellite remote sensing in Tehran and suburbs

In this study, we aim to compare the climatic conditions of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) in Tehran and its suburbs using day/night time data from three satellites. A high-resolution Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from MODIS Aqua, Sentinel-3, and Landsat 8 were selected to facilitate this study. The highest values of LST/UHI are observed in downtown Tehran and suburban areas at night. The temperature difference also shows an increase at night in Tehran and the western suburbs, while it decreases during the day. When comparing LST/UHI with altitude in different directions, it is found that urban areas and the south, southeast, southwest, and west suburban areas experience higher temperatures at night. MODIS LST products are more appropriate for checking nighttime SUHI in Tehran's Great area in comparison to other products. Moran's I indicates that the highest positive values occur during seasonal and annual periods at night. The Getis index demonstrates a consistent pattern across all seasons, and this trend persists throughout the year. The seasonal and annual UHI difference between Tehran and its suburbs is 5 °C. The LST diagram reveals that higher temperatures occur during warm months. The temporal NDVI distribution indicates lower NDVI values from June to February and summer to winter. The spatial distribution shows that due to the lack of NDVI index in urban areas, LST/UHI values are higher at night in Tehran compared to the suburbs. UHI is not limited to urban areas but has also spread beyond the city borders. As a result, the highest UHI values are found in downtown Tehran and its southeast, south, southwest, and west suburbs.

Differential responses of soil microbial biomass, diversity and interactions to land use intensity at a territorial scale

Impact of land use intensification on soil microbial communities across a territory remains poorly documented. Yet, it has to be deciphered to validate the results obtained at local and global scales by integrating the variations of environmental conditions and agricultural systems at a territorial scale. We investigated the impact of different land uses (from forest to agricultural systems) and associated soil management practices on soil molecular microbial biomass and diversity across a territory of 3300 km2 in Burgundy (France). Microbial biomass and diversity were determined by quantifying and high-throughput sequencing of soil DNA from 300 soils, respectively. Geostatistics were applied to map the soil macro-ecological patterns and variance partitioning analysis was used to rank the influence of soil physicochemical characteristics, land uses and associated practices on soil microbial communities. Geographical patterns differed between microbial biomass and diversity, emphasizing that distinct environmental drivers shaped these parameters. Soil microbial biomass was mainly driven by the soil organic carbon content and was significantly altered by agricultural land uses, with a loss of about 71 % from natural to agricultural ecosystems. The best predictors of bacterial and fungal richness were soil texture and pH, respectively. Microbial diversity was less sensitive than microbial biomass to land use intensification, and fungal richness appeared more impacted than bacteria. Co-occurrence network analysis of the interactions among microbial communities showed a decline of about 95 % of network complexity with land use intensification, which counterbalanced the weak response of microbial diversity. Grouping of the 147 cropland plots in four clusters according to their agricultural practices confirmed that microbial parameters exhibited different responses to soil management intensification, especially soil tillage and crop protection. Our results altogether allow evaluating the different levels of microbial parameters' vulnerability to land use intensity at a territorial scale.

Nexus between energy efficiency, green investment, urbanization and environmental quality: Evidence from MENA region

Environmental protection holds a paramount position in the pursuit of sustainable development. The existing body of literature has extensively examined various driving forces for environmental enhancement, including renewable energy sources, innovation, and governmental interventions. This study aims to assess the impact of green investment, energy efficiency, and urbanization on achieving environmental sustainability in the MENA region during the period 2004-2019. A comprehensive set of econometric tools has been employed to achieve this goal, including the CADF and CIPS panel unit root tests, error correction-based panel cointegration analysis, Cross-sectional ARDL, and asymmetric ARDL models. The key findings of this research are as follows: Cross-sectional dependency and homogeneity tests demonstrated that the research units shared common dynamics and heterogeneity properties. The stationarity tests based on CIPS and CADF indicated that all variables became stationary after the first differencing. The panel cointegration analysis established a long-term relationship between green investment (GI), energy efficiency (EE), urbanization (UR), and environmental sustainability (ES) in MENA nations. Empirical model estimations using Cross-sectional ARDL revealed significant contributions of GI, EE, and UR to ES in the long and short run. The asymmetry assessment uncovered a nonlinear relationship between the explanatory and dependent variables, both in the long and short run. Specifically, the asymmetric coefficients of GI, EE, and UR displayed negative statistical significance at the 1% level, highlighting their significant roles in promoting environmental sustainability. In light of these findings, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers to formulate strategies to further environmental sustainability in the MENA region.

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Impacts of Receiving International Industrial Transfer on China's Air Quality and Health Exceed Those of Export Trade

Benefiting from international economic cooperation on income, technology diffusion, and employment, China also suffers its environmental and health impacts, from both international trade (IT), as is now widely understood, and international industrial transfer (IIT), which has been largely unrecognized. Here, we develop a comprehensive framework to estimate the impacts of exporting IT and receiving IIT. We find that China's emissions of CO2 and almost all air pollutants associated with IIT and IT together grew after 1997 but then declined after 2010, with the peak shares of national total emissions ranging 18-31% for different species. These sources further accounted for 3.8% of nationwide PM2.5 concentrations and 94,610 (76,000-112,040) premature deaths in 2012, and the values declined to 2.6% and 67,370 (52,390-81,810), respectively, for 2017. Separated, the contribution of IIT to those impacts was more than twice that of IT. Scenario analyses suggest that improving emission controls in its less-developed regions would effectively reduce the impact of economic globalization, but such a benefit could be largely offset by strengthened international economic cooperation. The outcomes provide a scientific basis for adjusting China's strategic roles in the international distribution of industrial production and its formulation of relevant environmental policies from a comprehensive perspective.