Global models and predictions of plant diversity based on advanced machine learning techniques

Climate change alters the future of natural floristic regions of deep evolutionary origins

Biogeographic regions reflect the organization of biotas over long evolutionary timescales but face alterations from recent anthropogenic climate change. Here, we model species distributions for 189,269 vascular plant species of the world under present and future climates and use this data to generate biogeographic regions based on phylogenetic dissimilarity. Our analysis reveals declines in phylogenetic beta diversity for years 2040 to 2100, leading to a future homogenization of biogeographic regions. While some biogeographic boundaries will persist, climate change will alter boundaries separating biogeographic realms. Such boundary alterations will be determined by altitude variation, heterogeneity of temperature seasonality, and past climate velocity. Our findings suggest that human activities may now surpass the geological forces that shaped floristic regions over millions of years, calling for the mitigation of climate impacts to meet international biodiversity targets.

Boreal tree species diversity increases with global warming but is reversed by extremes

Tree species diversity is essential to sustaining stable forest ecosystem functioning. However, it remains unclear how boreal tree species diversity has changed in response to climate change and how it is associated with productivity and the temporal stability of boreal forest ecosystems. By combining 5,312 field observations and 55,560 Landsat images, here we develop a framework to estimate boreal tree species diversity (represented by the Shannon diversity index, H') for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020. We document an average increase in H' by 12% from 2000 to 2020 across the boreal forests. This increase accounts for 53% of all boreal forest areas and mainly occurs in the eastern forest-boreal transition region, the Okhotsk-Manchurian taiga and the Scandinavian-Russian taiga. Tree species diversity responds positively to increasing temperatures, but the relationship is weakened for higher temperature changes, and in areas of extreme warming (>0.065 °C yr-1), a negative impact on tree species diversity is found. We further show that the observed spatiotemporal increase in diversity is significantly associated with increased productivity and temporal stability of boreal forest biomass. Our results highlight climate-warming-driven increases in boreal tree species diversity that positively affect boreal ecosystem functioning but are countered in areas of extreme warming.

Islands are key for protecting the world's plant endemism

Islands are renowned as evolutionary laboratories and support many species that are not found elsewhere1,2. Islands are also of great conservation concern, with many of their endemic species currently threatened or extinct3. Here we present a standardized checklist of all known vascular plants that occur on islands and document their geographical and phylogenetic distribution and conservation risk. Our analyses of 304,103 plant species reveal that 94,052 species (31%) are native to islands, which constitute 5.3% of the global landmass4. Of these, 63,280 are island endemic species, which represent 21% of global plant diversity. Three-quarters of these are restricted to large or isolated islands. Compared with the world flora, island endemics are non-randomly distributed within the tree of life, with a total of 1,005 billion years of unique phylogenetic history with 17 families and 1,702 genera being entirely endemic to islands. Of all vascular plants assigned International Union for Conservation of Nature conservation categories5, 22% are island endemics. Among these endemic species, 51% are threatened, and 55% of all documented global extinctions have occurred on islands. We find that of all single-island endemic species, only 6% occur on islands meeting the United Nations 30×30 conservation target. Urgent measures including habitat restoration, invasive species removal and ex situ programmes are needed to protect the world's island flora. Our checklist quantifies the uniqueness of island life, provides a basis for future studies of island floras, and highlights the urgent need to take actions for conserving them.

Plant diversity darkspots for global collection priorities

More than 15% of all vascular plant species may remain scientifically undescribed, and many of the > 350 000 described species have no or few geographic records documenting their distribution. Identifying and understanding taxonomic and geographic knowledge shortfalls is key to prioritising future collection and conservation efforts. Using extensive data for 343 523 vascular plant species and time-to-event analyses, we conducted multiple tests related to plant taxonomic and geographic data shortfalls, and identified 33 global diversity darkspots (those 'botanical countries' predicted to contain most undescribed and not yet recorded species). We defined priority regions for future collection according to several socio-economic and environmental scenarios. Most plant diversity darkspots are found within global biodiversity hotspots, with the exception of New Guinea. We identify Colombia, Myanmar, New Guinea, Peru, Philippines and Turkey as global collection priorities under all environmental and socio-economic conditions considered. Our study provides a flexible framework to help accelerate the documentation of global plant diversity for the implementation of conservation actions. As digitisation of the world's herbaria progresses, collection and conservation priorities may soon be identifiable at finer scales.

Spatial distribution and priority conservation areas identification in Three-River-Source National Park considering the multifaceted values of plants

Spatially differentiated conservation effort for natural resources is critical to achieving a balance between protection and development in national parks. However, the extent of priority conservation areas for plants that integrate multispecies and multifaceted values is unclear. Here, we selected fine-resolution environmental variables with stronger impacts on wild plant survival to spatialize the distribution of all modeling-eligible species using species distribution models in Three-River-Source National Park, China. These were then combined with in situ conservation results for insufficient data species to identify priority conservation areas (PCAs) in terms of diversity, ecological and economic values, respectively. We analyzed the spatial characteristics of the priority conservation areas and searched for conservation gaps not covered by national nature reserves. The results showed that this study obtained more precise results on the spatial distribution of species by improving environmental variables and upgrading the spatial resolution. In Three-River-Source National Park, the species richness of wild plants showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. There were significant differences in the spatial distribution of the priority conservation areas identified based on the three values, which was the basis for the spatially differentiated conservation and development of wild plant resources. In addition, the priority conservation areas obtained based on ecological value found Top17% priority conservation areas in the Hoh Xil Natural Reserve, which could not be revealed based on diversity or economic value. These results highlight the urgency of implementing multispecies and multifaceted values studies in national parks. In the future, studying conflicts between wildlife priority conservation areas and human activities, and expanding to national parks on a global scale, will be the focus that this study will continue to explore.

How many animal-pollinated angiosperms are nectar-producing?

The diversity of plant-pollinator interactions is grounded in floral resources, with nectar considered one of the main floral rewards plants produce for pollinators. However, a global evaluation of the number of animal-pollinated nectar-producing angiosperms and their distribution world-wide remains elusive. We compiled a thorough database encompassing 7621 plant species from 322 families to estimate the number and proportion of nectar-producing angiosperms reliant on animal pollination. Through extensive sampling of plant communities, we also explored the interplay between nectar production, floral resource diversity, latitudinal and elevational gradients, contemporary climate, and environmental characteristics. Roughly 223 308 animal-pollinated angiosperms are nectar-producing, accounting for 74.4% of biotic-pollinated species. Global distribution patterns of nectar-producing plants reveal a distinct trend along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, with increased proportions of plants producing nectar in high latitudes and altitudes. Conversely, tropical communities in warm and moist climates exhibit greater floral resource diversity and a lower proportion of nectar-producing plants. These findings suggest that ecological trends driven by climate have fostered the diversification of floral resources in warmer and less seasonal climates, reducing the proportion of solely nectar-producing plants. Our study provides a baseline for understanding plant-pollinator relationships, plant diversification, and the distribution of plant traits.

Spatial patterns of congruence or mismatch between taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity and endemism of perennial flora along the aridity gradient of Chile

Introduction

Understanding the relationships between taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity and endemism across environmental gradients is essential for elucidating the eco-evolutionary mechanisms that shape local plant communities.

Methods

A database was compiled from field surveys, national herbarium records, and virtual records of perennial plant specimens collected in the aridity gradient of northern Chile, between 18 and 32°S. A large-scale dated phylogeny of available perennial plants was used, and 11 functional traits were selected to construct a dendrogram using the Unweighted Pair-Group Method with Arithmetic Mean (UPGMA) method for the species present in our database. We calculated spatial patterns of a-diversity, including taxonomic (TD), functional (FD), and phylogenetic (PD) diversity, as well as weighted (WE), functional (FE), and phylogenetic (PE) endemism. We used multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to identify spatial congruencies and discrepancies among these dimensions and to test different eco-evolutionary processes.

Results

The diversity indices TD, FD and PD showed similar geographic patterns (R2 > 0.93), with lower diversity observed in absolute desert regions. The pattern of weighted endemism (WE) showed a weak association with functional endemism (FE) and phylogenetic endemism (PE) (local R2 < 0.48). The regions with lower FD or PD than expected given the TD (i.e. FD

Predicting undetected native vascular plant diversity at a global scale

Vascular plants are diverse and a major component of terrestrial ecosystems, yet their geographic distributions remain incomplete. Here, I present a global database of vascular plant distributions by integrating species distribution models calibrated to species' dispersal ability and natural habitats to predict native range maps for 201,681 vascular plant species into unsurveyed areas. Using these maps, I uncover unique patterns of native vascular plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity revealing hotspots in underdocumented biodiversity-rich regions. These hotspots, based on detailed species-level maps, show a pronounced latitudinal gradient, strongly supporting the theory of increasing diversity toward the equator. I trained random forest models to extrapolate diversity patterns under unbiased global sampling and identify overlaps with modeled estimations but unveiled cryptic hotspots that were not captured by modeled estimations. Only 29% to 36% of extrapolated plant hotspots are inside protected areas, leaving more than 60% outside and vulnerable. However, the unprotected hotspots harbor species with unique attributes that make them good candidates for conservation prioritization.

Alpine Extremophytes in Evolutionary Turmoil: Complex Diversification Patterns and Demographic Responses of a Halophilic Grass in a Central Asian Biodiversity Hotspot

Diversification and demographic responses are key processes shaping species evolutionary history. Yet we still lack a full understanding of ecological mechanisms that shape genetic diversity at different spatial scales upon rapid environmental changes. In this study, we examined genetic differentiation in an extremophilic grass Puccinellia pamirica and factors affecting its population dynamics among the occupied hypersaline alpine wetlands on the arid Pamir Plateau in Central Asia. Using genomic data, we found evidence of fine-scale population structure and gene flow among the localities established across the high-elevation plateau as well as fingerprints of historical demographic expansion. We showed that an increase in the effective population size could coincide with the Last Glacial Period, which was followed by the species demographic decline during the Holocene. Geographic distance plays a vital role in shaping the spatial genetic structure of P. pamirica alongside with isolation-by-environment and habitat fragmentation. Our results highlight a complex history of divergence and gene flow in this species-poor alpine region during the Late Quaternary. We demonstrate that regional climate specificity and a shortage of nonclimate data largely impede predictions of future range changes of the alpine extremophile using ecological niche modeling. This study emphasizes the importance of fine-scale environmental heterogeneity for population dynamics and species distribution shifts.

Unique Plant Resources and Distribution Patterns in the Valley Forest of the Irtysh River Basin

The river valley forests of the Irtysh River Basin are a germplasm bank of Salicaceae species and rare plant resources in China, and the distribution varies with the river and is highly distinctive. However, there is a dearth of systematic research on the characteristics of plant resources. In this study, a comprehensive investigation was conducted in the trunk stream and six tributaries with valley forest distribution in the Irtysh River Basin, and 244 quadrats were set up. The analysis focused on the composition of the flora and resource characteristics. The results reveal the following: (1) The valley forests of the Irtysh River Basin contain 256 species of plants belonging to 57 families and 178 genera, among which 19 species of trees, 23 species of shrubs, and 214 species of herbs were investigated. (2) Among the identified species, 226 (88.67%) were recognized as resource plants, with medicinal plants being the most abundant (176 species, 68.75% of the total). (3) The distribution patterns of trees, shrubs, and herbs of each resource type vary across rivers. Elevation drop, river length, and river distance all significantly affect the number of specie. This study elucidated the current status and distributional characteristics of plant resources in the valley forests of the Irtysh River Basin, which is essential for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable resource utilization.

Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading to contrasting future (2021-2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary production. Our results revealed contrasting patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, time periods and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. In particular, the least changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. However, under the extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod and snow crab abundances increased and decreased, respectively, with concurrent zonal and meridional future shifts in their centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of highly valuable species despite minimal declines in maximum catch potential, which are dominated by less valuable taxa. Hence, our findings show that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have important biological and economic impacts on the productivity of commercial and subsistence fisheries in the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, with potential implications for the effective management of transboundary resources.

Seed or soil: Tracing back the plant mycobiota primary sources

Plants host diverse communities of fungi (the mycobiota), playing crucial roles in their development. The assembly processes of the mycobiota, however, remain poorly understood, in particular, whether it is transmitted by parents through the seeds (vertical transmission) or recruited in the environment (horizontal transmission). Here we attempt to quantify the relative contributions of horizontal and vertical transmission in the mycobiota assembly of a desert shrub, Haloxylon salicornicum, by comparing the mycobiota of in situ bulk soil and seeds to that of (i) in situ adult individuals and (ii) in vitro-germinated seedlings in soil collected in situ. We show that the mycobiota are partially vertically transmitted through the seeds to seedlings, whereas bulk soil has a limited contribution to the seedling's mycobiota. In adults, root and bulk soil mycobiota tend to resemble each other, suggesting a compositional turnover in plant mycobiota during plant development due to horizontal transmission. Thus, the mycobiota are transmitted both horizontally and vertically depending on the plant tissue and developmental stage. Understanding the respective contribution of these transmission pathways to the plant mycobiota is fundamental to deciphering potential coevolutionary processes between plants and fungi. Our findings particularly emphasize the importance of vertical transmission in desert ecosystems.

Climate warming accelerates carbon release from foliar litter-A global synthesis

With over one-third of terrestrial net primary productivity transferring to the litter layer annually, the carbon release from litter serves as a crucial valve in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, few quantitative global projections of litter carbon release rate in response to climate change exist. Here, we combined a global foliar litter carbon release dataset (8973 samples) to generate spatially explicitly estimates of the response of their residence time (τ) to climate change. Results show a global mean litter carbon release rate (k $$ k $$ ) of 0.69 year-1 (ranging from 0.09-5.6 year-1). Under future climate scenarios, global mean τ is projected to decrease by a mean of 2.7% (SSP 1-2.6) and 5.9% (SSP 5-8.5) during 2071-2100 period. Locally, the alleviation of temperature and moisture restrictions corresponded to obvious decreases in τ in cold and arid regions, respectively. In contract, τ in tropical humid broadleaf forests increased by 4.6% under SSP 5-8.5. Our findings highlight the vegetation type as a powerful proxy for explaining global patterns in foliar litter carbon release rates and the role of climate conditions in predicting responses of carbon release to climate change. Our observation-based estimates could refine carbon cycle parameterization, improving projections of carbon cycle-climate feedbacks.

Spatial variability in herbaceous plant phenology is mostly explained by variability in temperature but also by photoperiod and functional traits

Whereas temporal variability of plant phenology in response to climate change has already been well studied, the spatial variability of phenology is not well understood. Given that phenological shifts may affect biotic interactions, there is a need to investigate how the variability in environmental factors relates to the spatial variability in herbaceous species' phenology by at the same time considering their functional traits to predict their general and species-specific responses to future climate change. In this project, we analysed phenology records of 148 herbaceous species, which were observed for a single year by the PhenObs network in 15 botanical gardens. For each species, we characterised the spatial variability in six different phenological stages across gardens. We used boosted regression trees to link these variabilities in phenology to the variability in environmental parameters (temperature, latitude and local habitat conditions) as well as species traits (seed mass, vegetative height, specific leaf area and temporal niche) hypothesised to be related to phenology variability. We found that spatial variability in the phenology of herbaceous species was mainly driven by the variability in temperature but also photoperiod was an important driving factor for some phenological stages. In addition, we found that early-flowering and less competitive species characterised by small specific leaf area and vegetative height were more variable in their phenology. Our findings contribute to the field of phenology by showing that besides temperature, photoperiod and functional traits are important to be included when spatial variability of herbaceous species is investigated.

Global multifaceted biodiversity patterns, centers, and conservation needs in angiosperms

The Convention on Biological Diversity seeks to conserve at least 30% of global land and water areas by 2030, which is a challenge but also an opportunity to better preserve biodiversity, including flowering plants (angiosperms). Herein, we compiled a large database on distributions of over 300,000 angiosperm species and the key functional traits of 67,024 species. Using this database, we constructed biodiversity-environment models to predict global patterns of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity in terrestrial angiosperms and provide a comprehensive mapping of the three diversity facets. We further evaluated the current protection status of the biodiversity centers of these diversity facets. Our results showed that geographical patterns of the three facets of plant diversity exhibited substantial spatial mismatches and nonoverlapping conservation priorities. Idiosyncratic centers of functional diversity, particularly of herbaceous species, were primarily distributed in temperate regions and under weaker protection compared with other biodiversity centers of taxonomic and phylogenetic facets. Our global assessment of multifaceted biodiversity patterns and centers highlights the insufficiency and unbalanced conservation among the three diversity facets and the two growth forms (woody vs. herbaceous), thus providing directions for guiding the future conservation of global plant diversity.

Multiple drivers of functional diversity in temperate forest understories: Climate, soil, and forest structure effects

In macroecology, shifting from coarse- to local-scale explanatory factors is crucial for understanding how global change impacts functional diversity (FD). Plants possess diverse traits allowing them to differentially respond across a spectrum of environmental conditions. We aim to assess how macro- to microclimate, stand-scale measured soil properties, forest structure, and management type, influence forest understorey FD at the macroecological scale. Our study covers Italian forests, using thirteen predictors categorized into climate, soil, forest structure, and management. We analyzed five traits (i.e., specific leaf area, plant size, seed mass, belowground bud bank size, and clonal lateral spread) capturing independent functional dimensions to calculate the standardized effect size of functional diversity (SES-FD) for all traits (multi-trait) and for single traits. Multiple regression models were applied to assess the effect of predictors on SES-FD. We revealed that climate, soil, and forest structure significantly drive SES-FD of specific leaf area, plant size, seed mass, and bud bank. Forest management had a limited effect. However, differences emerged between herbaceous and woody growth forms of the understorey layer, with herbaceous species mainly responding to climate and soil features, while woody species were mainly affected by forest structure. Future warmer and more seasonal climate could reduce the diversity of resource economics, plant size, and persistence strategies of the forest understorey. Soil eutrophication and acidification may impact the diversity of regeneration strategies; canopy closure affects the diversity of above- and belowground traits, with a larger effect on woody species. Multifunctional approaches are vital to disentangle the effect of global changes on functional diversity since independent functional specialization axes are modulated by different drivers.

A new R package to parse plant species occurrence records into unique collection events efficiently reduces data redundancy

Biodiversity data aggregators, such as Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) suffer from inflation of the number of occurrence records when data from different databases are merged but not fully reconciled. The ParseGBIF workflow is designed to parse duplicate GBIF species occurrence records into unique collection events (gatherings) and to optimise the quality of the spatial data associated with them. ParseGBIF provides tools to verify and standardize species scientific names according to the World Checklist of Vascular Plants taxonomic backbone, and to parse duplicate records into unique 'collection events', in the process compiling the most informative spatial data, where more than one duplicate is available, and providing crude estimates of taxonomic and spatial data quality. When GBIF occurrence records for a medium-sized vascular plant family, the Myrtaceae, were processed by ParseGBIF, the average number of records useful for spatial analysis increased by 180%. ParseGBIF could therefore be valuable in the evaluation of species' occurrences at the national scale in support for national biodiversity plans, identification of plant areas important for biodiversity, sample bias estimation to inform future sampling efforts, and to forecast species range shifts in response to global climate change.

Mutualisms weaken the latitudinal diversity gradient among oceanic islands

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) dominates global patterns of diversity1,2, but the factors that underlie the LDG remain elusive. Here we use a unique global dataset3 to show that vascular plants on oceanic islands exhibit a weakened LDG and explore potential mechanisms for this effect. Our results show that traditional physical drivers of island biogeography4-namely area and isolation-contribute to the difference between island and mainland diversity at a given latitude (that is, the island species deficit), as smaller and more distant islands experience reduced colonization. However, plant species with mutualists are underrepresented on islands, and we find that this plant mutualism filter explains more variation in the island species deficit than abiotic factors. In particular, plant species that require animal pollinators or microbial mutualists such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi contribute disproportionately to the island species deficit near the Equator, with contributions decreasing with distance from the Equator. Plant mutualist filters on species richness are particularly strong at low absolute latitudes where mainland richness is highest, weakening the LDG of oceanic islands. These results provide empirical evidence that mutualisms, habitat heterogeneity and dispersal are key to the maintenance of high tropical plant diversity and mediate the biogeographic patterns of plant diversity on Earth.

Effects of climate and environmental heterogeneity on the phylogenetic structure of regional angiosperm floras worldwide

The tendency of species to retain ancestral ecological distributions (phylogenetic niche conservatism) is thought to influence which species from a species pool can persist in a particular environment. Thus, investigating the relationships between measures of phylogenetic structure and environmental variables at a global scale can help understand the variation in species richness and phylogenetic structure in biological assemblages across the world. Here, we analyze a comprehensive data set including 341,846 species in 391 angiosperm floras worldwide to explore the relationships between measures of phylogenetic structure and environmental variables for angiosperms in regional floras across the world and for each of individual continental (biogeographic) regions. We find that the global phylogenetic structure of angiosperms shows clear and meaningful relationships with environmental factors. Current climatic variables have the highest predictive power, especially on phylogenetic metrics reflecting recent evolutionary relationships that are also related to current environmental heterogeneity, presumably because this favors plant speciation in various ways. We also find evidence that past climatic conditions, and particularly refugial conditions, play an important role in determining the phylogenetic structure of regional floras. The relationships between environmental conditions and phylogenetic metrics differ between continents, reflecting the different evolutionary histories of their floras.

The global distribution of plants used by humans

Plants sustain human life. Understanding geographic patterns of the diversity of species used by people is thus essential for the sustainable management of plant resources. Here, we investigate the global distribution of 35,687 utilized plant species spanning 10 use categories (e.g., food, medicine, material). Our findings indicate general concordance between utilized and total plant diversity, supporting the potential for simultaneously conserving species diversity and its contributions to people. Although Indigenous lands across Mesoamerica, the Horn of Africa, and Southern Asia harbor a disproportionate diversity of utilized plants, the incidence of protected areas is negatively correlated with utilized species richness. Finding mechanisms to preserve areas containing concentrations of utilized plants and traditional knowledge must become a priority for the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

What explains the high island endemicity of Philippine Rafflesia? A species distribution modeling analysis of three threatened parasitic plant species and their hosts

PREMISE

Rafflesia are rare holoparasitic plants. In the Philippines, all but one species are found only on single islands. This study aimed to better understand the factors contributing to this distributional pattern. Specifically, we sought to determine whether narrow environmental tolerances of host and/or parasite species might explain their island endemicity.

METHODS

We used Maxent species distribution modeling to identify areas with suitable habitat for R. lagascae, R. lobata, and R. speciosa and their Tetrastigma host species. These analyses were carried out for current climate conditions and two future climate change scenarios.

RESULTS

Although species distribution models indicated suitable environmental conditions for the Tetrastigma host species in many parts of the Philippines, considerably fewer areas were inferred to have suitable conditions for the three Rafflesia species. Some of these areas are on islands from which they have not been reported. All three species will face significant threats as a result of climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that limited inter-island dispersibility and/or specific environmental requirements are likely responsible for the current pattern of island endemicity of the three Rafflesia species, rather than environmental requirements of their Tetrastigma host species.

Connecting the multiple dimensions of global soil fungal diversity

How the multiple facets of soil fungal diversity vary worldwide remains virtually unknown, hindering the management of this essential species-rich group. By sequencing high-resolution DNA markers in over 4000 topsoil samples from natural and human-altered ecosystems across all continents, we illustrate the distributions and drivers of different levels of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of fungi and their ecological groups. We show the impact of precipitation and temperature interactions on local fungal species richness (alpha diversity) across different climates. Our findings reveal how temperature drives fungal compositional turnover (beta diversity) and phylogenetic diversity, linking them with regional species richness (gamma diversity). We integrate fungi into the principles of global biodiversity distribution and present detailed maps for biodiversity conservation and modeling of global ecological processes.

TreeGOER: A database with globally observed environmental ranges for 48,129 tree species

The TreeGOER (Tree Globally Observed Environmental Ranges) database provides information for most known tree species of their environmental ranges for 38 bioclimatic, eight soil and three topographic variables. It is based on species distribution modelling analyses of more than 44 million occurrences. The database can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7922927. Statistics that include 5% and 95% quantiles were estimated for a cleaned and taxonomically standardized occurrence data set with different methods of outlier detection, with estimates for roughly 45% of species being based on 20 or more observation records. Where sufficient representative observations are available, the ranges provide useful preliminary estimates of suitable conditions particularly for lesser-known species under climate change. Inferred core bioclimatic ranges of species along global temperature and moisture index gradients and across continents follow the known global distribution of tree diversity such as its highest levels in moist tropical forests and the 'odd man out' pattern of lower levels in Africa. To demonstrate how global analyses for large numbers of tree species can easily be done in R with TreeGOER, here I present two case studies. The first case study investigated latitudinal trends of tree vulnerability and compared these with previous results obtained for urban trees. The second case study focused on tropical areas, compared trends in different longitudinal zones and investigated patterns for the moisture index. TreeGOER is expected to benefit researchers conducting biogeographical and climate change research for a wide range of tree species at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

The contribution of plant life and growth forms to global gradients of vascular plant diversity

Plant life and growth forms (shortened to 'plant forms') represent key functional strategies of plants in relation to their environment and provide important insights into the ecological constraints acting on the distribution of biodiversity. Despite their functional importance, how the spectra of plant forms contribute to global gradients of plant diversity is unresolved. Using a novel dataset comprising > 295 000 species, we quantify the contribution of different plant forms to global gradients of vascular plant diversity. Furthermore, we establish how plant form distributions in different biogeographical regions are associated with contemporary and paleoclimate conditions, environmental heterogeneity and phylogeny. We find a major shift in representation of woody perennials in tropical latitudes to herb-dominated floras in temperate and boreal regions, following a sharp latitudinal gradient in plant form diversity from the tropics to the poles. We also find significant functional differences between regions, mirroring life and growth form responses to environmental conditions, which is mostly explained by contemporary climate (18-87%), and phylogeny (6-62%), with paleoclimate and heterogeneity playing a lesser role (< 23%). This research highlights variation in the importance of different plant forms to diversity gradients world-wide, shedding light on the ecological and evolutionary pressures constraining plant-trait distributions.

A latitudinal gradient in Darwin's naturalization conundrum at the global scale for flowering plants

Darwin's naturalization conundrum describes two seemingly contradictory hypotheses regarding whether alien species closely or distantly related to native species should be more likely to naturalize in regional floras. Both expectations have accumulated empirical support, and whether such apparent inconsistency can be reconciled at the global scale is unclear. Here, using 219,520 native and 9,531 naturalized alien plant species across 487 globally distributed regions, we found a latitudinal gradient in Darwin's naturalization conundrum. Naturalized alien plant species are more closely related to native species at higher latitudes than they are at lower latitudes, indicating a greater influence of preadaptation in harsher climates. Human landscape modification resulted in even steeper latitudinal clines by selecting aliens distantly related to natives in warmer and drier regions. Our results demonstrate that joint consideration of climatic and anthropogenic conditions is critical to reconciling Darwin's naturalization conundrum.

Climatic niche and range shifts of grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) in Europe: An invasive pest displacing native squirrels

BACKGROUND

As an invasive pest from North America, grey squirrels (GSs; Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) are displacing native squirrels in Europe. However, the climatic niche and range dynamics of GSs in Europe remain largely unknown. Through niche and range dynamic models, we investigated climatic niche and range shifts between introduced GSs in Europe and native GSs in North America.

RESULTS

GSs in North America can survive in more variable climatic conditions and have much wider climatic niche breadth than do GSs in Europe. Based on climate, the potential range of GSs in Europe included primarily Britain, Ireland, and Italy, whereas the potential range of GSs in North America included vast regions of western and southern Europe. If GSs in Europe could occupy the same climatic niche space and potential range as GSs in North America, they would occupy an area ca. 2.45 times the size of their current range. The unfilling ranges of GSs in Europe relative to those of GSs in North America were primarily in France, Italy, Spain, Croatia, and Portugal.

CONCLUSION

Our observations implied that GSs in Europe have significant invasion potential, and that range projections based on their occurrence records in Europe may underestimate their invasion risk. Given that small niche shifts between GSs in Europe and in North America could lead to large range shifts, niche shifts could be a sensitive indicator in invasion risk assessment. The identified unfilling ranges of the GS in Europe should be prioritized in combating GS invasions in the future. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Giants of the Amazon: How does environmental variation drive the diversity patterns of large trees?

For more than three decades, major efforts in sampling and analyzing tree diversity in South America have focused almost exclusively on trees with stems of at least 10 and 2.5 cm diameter, showing highest species diversity in the wetter western and northern Amazon forests. By contrast, little attention has been paid to patterns and drivers of diversity in the largest canopy and emergent trees, which is surprising given these have dominant ecological functions. Here, we use a machine learning approach to quantify the importance of environmental factors and apply it to generate spatial predictions of the species diversity of all trees (dbh ≥ 10 cm) and for very large trees (dbh ≥ 70 cm) using data from 243 forest plots (108,450 trees and 2832 species) distributed across different forest types and biogeographic regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The diversity of large trees and of all trees was significantly associated with three environmental factors, but in contrasting ways across regions and forest types. Environmental variables associated with disturbances, for example, the lightning flash rate and wind speed, as well as the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, tend to govern the diversity of large trees. Upland rainforests in the Guiana Shield and Roraima regions had a high diversity of large trees. By contrast, variables associated with resources tend to govern tree diversity in general. Places such as the province of Imeri and the northern portion of the province of Madeira stand out for their high diversity of species in general. Climatic and topographic stability and functional adaptation mechanisms promote ideal conditions for species diversity. Finally, we mapped general patterns of tree species diversity in the Brazilian Amazon, which differ substantially depending on size class.

Climatic stability and geological history shape global centers of neo- and paleoendemism in seed plants

Assessing the distribution of geographically restricted and evolutionarily unique species and their underlying drivers is key to understanding biogeographical processes and critical for global conservation prioritization. Here, we quantified the geographic distribution and drivers of phylogenetic endemism for ~320,000 seed plants worldwide and identified centers and drivers of evolutionarily young (neoendemism) and evolutionarily old endemism (paleoendemism). Tropical and subtropical islands as well as tropical mountain regions displayed the world's highest phylogenetic endemism. Most tropical rainforest regions emerged as centers of paleoendemism, while most Mediterranean-climate regions showed high neoendemism. Centers where high neo- and paleoendemism coincide emerged on some oceanic and continental fragment islands, in Mediterranean-climate regions and parts of the Irano-Turanian floristic region. Global variation in phylogenetic endemism was well explained by a combination of past and present environmental factors (79.8 to 87.7% of variance explained) and most strongly related to environmental heterogeneity. Also, warm and wet climates, geographic isolation, and long-term climatic stability emerged as key drivers of phylogenetic endemism. Neo- and paleoendemism were jointly explained by climatic and geological history. Long-term climatic stability promoted the persistence of paleoendemics, while the isolation of oceanic islands and their unique geological histories promoted neoendemism. Mountainous regions promoted both neo- and paleoendemism, reflecting both diversification and persistence over time. Our study provides insights into the evolutionary underpinnings of biogeographical patterns in seed plants and identifies the areas on Earth with the highest evolutionary and biogeographical uniqueness-key information for setting global conservation priorities.

Genome assemblies and comparison of two Neotropical spiral gingers: Costus pulverulentus and C. lasius

The spiral gingers (Costus L.) are a pantropical genus of herbaceous perennial monocots; the Neotropical clade of Costus radiated rapidly in the past few million years into over 60 species. The Neotropical spiral gingers have a rich history of evolutionary and ecological research that can motivate and inform modern genetic investigations. Here, we present the first 2 chromosome-level genome assemblies in the genus, for C. pulverulentus and C. lasius, and briefly compare their synteny. We assembled the C. pulverulentus genome from a combination of short-read data, Chicago and Dovetail Hi-C chromatin-proximity sequencing, and alignment with a linkage map. We annotated the genome by mapping a C. pulverulentus transcriptome and querying mapped transcripts against a protein database. We assembled the C. lasius genome with Pacific Biosciences HiFi long reads and alignment to the C. pulverulentus genome. These 2 assemblies are the first published genomes for non-cultivated tropical plants. These genomes solidify the spiral gingers as a model system and will facilitate research on the poorly understood genetic basis of tropical plant diversification.

Global patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of flowering plants: Biodiversity hotspots and coldspots

Species diversity of angiosperms (flowering plants) varies greatly among regions. Geographic patterns of variation in species diversity are shaped by the interplay of ecological and evolutionary processes. Here, using a comprehensive data set for regional angiosperm floras across the world, we show geographic patterns of taxonomic (species) diversity, phylogenetic diversity, phylogenetic dispersion, and phylogenetic deviation (i.e., phylogenetic diversity after accounting for taxonomic diversity) across the world. Phylogenetic diversity is strongly and positively correlated with taxonomic diversity; as a result, geographic patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity across the world are highly similar. Areas with high taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity are located in tropical regions whereas areas with low taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity are located in temperate regions, particularly in Eurasia and North America, and in northern Africa. Similarly, phylogenetic dispersion is, in general, higher in tropical regions and lower in temperate regions. However, the geographic pattern of phylogenetic deviation differs substantially from those of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic dispersion. As a result, hotspots and coldspots of angiosperm diversity identified based on taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic dispersion are incongruent with those identified based on phylogenetic deviations. Each of these metrics may be considered when selecting areas to be protected for their biodiversity.

Metabarcoding of soil environmental DNA to estimate plant diversity globally

Introduction

Traditional approaches to collecting large-scale biodiversity data pose huge logistical and technical challenges. We aimed to assess how a comparatively simple method based on sequencing environmental DNA (eDNA) characterises global variation in plant diversity and community composition compared with data derived from traditional plant inventory methods.

Methods

We sequenced a short fragment (P6 loop) of the chloroplast trnL intron from from 325 globally distributed soil samples and compared estimates of diversity and composition with those derived from traditional sources based on empirical (GBIF) or extrapolated plant distribution and diversity data.

Results

Large-scale plant diversity and community composition patterns revealed by sequencing eDNA were broadly in accordance with those derived from traditional sources. The success of the eDNA taxonomy assignment, and the overlap of taxon lists between eDNA and GBIF, was greatest at moderate to high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. On average, around half (mean: 51.5% SD 17.6) of local GBIF records were represented in eDNA databases at the species level, depending on the geographic region.

Discussion

eDNA trnL gene sequencing data accurately represent global patterns in plant diversity and composition and thus can provide a basis for large-scale vegetation studies. Important experimental considerations for plant eDNA studies include using a sampling volume and design to maximise the number of taxa detected and optimising the sequencing depth. However, increasing the coverage of reference sequence databases would yield the most significant improvements in the accuracy of taxonomic assignments made using the P6 loop of the trnL region.