Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

SumHer better estimates the SNP heritability of complex traits from summary statistics

We present SumHer, software for estimating confounding bias, SNP heritability, enrichments of heritability and genetic correlations using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies. The key difference between SumHer and the existing software LD Score Regression (LDSC) is that SumHer allows the user to specify the heritability model. We apply SumHer to results from 24 large-scale association studies (average sample size 121,000) using our recommended heritability model. We show that these studies tended to substantially over-correct for confounding, and as a result the number of genome-wide significant loci was under-reported by about a quarter. We also estimate enrichments for 24 categories of SNPs defined by functional annotations. A previous study using LDSC reported that conserved regions were 13-fold enriched, and found a further six categories with above threefold enrichment. By contrast, our analysis using SumHer finds that none of the categories have enrichment above twofold. SumHer provides an improved understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits, which enables more efficient analysis of future genetic data.

Combining common genetic variants and non-genetic risk factors to predict risk of cutaneous melanoma

Melanoma heritability is among the highest for cancer and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contribute to it. To date, only SNPs that reached statistical significance in genome-wide association studies or few candidate SNPs have been included in melanoma risk prediction models. We compared four approaches for building polygenic risk scores (PRS) using 12 874 melanoma cases and 23 203 controls from Melanoma Meta-Analysis Consortium as a training set, and newly genotyped 3102 cases and 2301 controls from the MelaNostrum consortium for validation. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for melanoma risk using traditional melanoma risk factors and the PRS with the largest area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC). We estimated absolute risks combining the PRS and other risk factors, with age- and sex-specific melanoma incidence and competing mortality rates from Italy as an example. The best PRS, including 204 SNPs (AUC = 64.4%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 63-65.8%), developed using winner's curse estimate corrections, had a per-quintile OR = 1.35 (95% CI = 1.30-1.41), corresponding to a 3.33-fold increase comparing the 5th to the 1st PRS quintile. The AUC improvement by adding the PRS was up to 7%, depending on adjusted factors and country. The 20-year absolute risk estimates based on the PRS, nevus count and pigmentation characteristics for a 60-year-old Italian man ranged from 0.5 to 11.8% (relative risk  = 26.34), indicating good separation.

The critical needs and challenges for genetic architecture studies in Africa

Human genetic studies have long been vastly Eurocentric, raising a key question about the generalizability of these study findings to other populations. Because humans originated in Africa, these populations retain more genetic diversity, and yet individuals of African descent have been tremendously underrepresented in genetic studies. The diversity in Africa affords ample opportunities to improve fine-mapping resolution for associated loci, discover novel genetic associations with phenotypes, build more generalizable genetic risk prediction models, and better understand the genetic architecture of complex traits and diseases subject to varying environmental pressures. Thus, it is both ethically and scientifically imperative that geneticists globally surmount challenges that have limited progress in African genetic studies to date. Additionally, African investigators need to be meaningfully included, as greater inclusivity and enhanced research capacity afford enormous opportunities to accelerate genomic discoveries that translate more effectively to all populations. We review the advantages, challenges, and examples of genetic architecture studies of complex traits and diseases in Africa. For example, with greater genetic diversity comes greater ancestral heterogeneity; this higher level of understudied diversity can yield novel genetic findings, but some methods that assume homogeneous population structure and work well in European populations may work less well in the presence of greater heterogeneity in African populations. Consequently, we advocate for methodological development that will accelerate studies important for all populations, especially those currently underrepresented in genetics.

Prediction of treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis patients using genome-wide SNP data

Although a number of treatments are available for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), each of them shows a significant nonresponse rate in patients. Therefore, predicting a priori the likelihood of treatment response would be of great patient benefit. Here, we conducted a comparison of a variety of statistical methods for predicting three measures of treatment response, between baseline and 3 or 6 months, using genome-wide SNP data from RA patients available from the MAximising Therapeutic Utility in Rheumatoid Arthritis (MATURA) consortium. Two different treatments and 11 different statistical methods were evaluated. We used 10-fold cross validation to assess predictive performance, with nested 10-fold cross validation used to tune the model hyperparameters when required. Overall, we found that SNPs added very little prediction information to that obtained using clinical characteristics only, such as baseline trait value. This observation can be explained by the lack of strong genetic effects and the relatively small sample sizes available; in analysis of simulated and real data, with larger effects and/or larger sample sizes, prediction performance was much improved. Overall, methods that were consistent with the genetic architecture of the trait were able to achieve better predictive ability than methods that were not. For treatment response in RA, methods that assumed a complex underlying genetic architecture achieved slightly better prediction performance than methods that assumed a simplified genetic architecture.

Genetic disease risks can be misestimated across global populations

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessment of health disparities requires unbiased knowledge of genetic risks in different populations. Unfortunately, most genome-wide association studies use genotyping arrays and European samples. Here, we integrate whole genome sequence data from global populations, results from thousands of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and extensive computer simulations to identify how genetic disease risks can be misestimated.

RESULTS

In contrast to null expectations, we find that risk allele frequencies at known disease loci are significantly different for African populations compared to other continents. Strikingly, ancestral risk alleles are found at 9.51% higher frequency in Africa, and derived risk alleles are found at 5.40% lower frequency in Africa. By simulating GWAS with different study populations, we find that non-African cohorts yield disease associations that have biased allele frequencies and that African cohorts yield disease associations that are relatively free of bias. We also find empirical evidence that genotyping arrays and SNP ascertainment bias contribute to continental differences in risk allele frequencies. Because of these causes, polygenic risk scores can be grossly misestimated for individuals of African descent. Importantly, continental differences in risk allele frequencies are only moderately reduced if GWAS use whole genome sequences and hundreds of thousands of cases and controls. Finally, comparisons between uncorrected and corrected genetic risk scores reveal the benefits of considering whether risk alleles are ancestral or derived.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results imply that caution must be taken when extrapolating GWAS results from one population to predict disease risks in another population.

Genome-wide associations for benign prostatic hyperplasia reveal a genetic correlation with serum levels of PSA

Benign prostatic hyperplasia and associated lower urinary tract symptoms (BPH/LUTS) are common conditions affecting the majority of elderly males. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of symptomatic BPH/LUTS in 20,621 patients and 280,541 controls of European ancestry, from Iceland and the UK. We discovered 23 genome-wide significant variants, located at 14 loci. There is little or no overlap between the BPH/LUTS variants and published prostate cancer risk variants. However, 15 of the variants reported here also associate with serum levels of prostate specific antigen (PSA) (at a Bonferroni corrected P < 0.0022). Furthermore, there is a strong genetic correlation, r_g = 0.77 (P = 2.6 × 10⁻¹¹), between PSA and BPH/LUTS, and one standard deviation increase in a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BPH/LUTS increases PSA levels by 12.9% (P = 1.6×10⁻⁵⁵). These results shed a light on the genetic background of BPH/LUTS and its substantial influence on PSA levels.

Elderly males are often affected by benign prostatic hyperplasia and associated lower urinary tract symptoms (BPH/LUTS), but their link to prostate cancer risk is not well defined. Here, a genome-wide association study of BPH/LUTS patients from Iceland and the UK found 23 significant variants at 14 loci, and 15 of these variants associate with prostate specific antigen, which is linked to prostate cancer risk.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis of age at first cannabis use

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cannabis is one of the most commonly used substances among adolescents and young adults. Earlier age at cannabis initiation is linked to adverse life outcomes, including multi-substance use and dependence. This study estimated the heritability of age at first cannabis use and identified associations with genetic variants.

METHODS

A twin-based heritability analysis using 8055 twins from three cohorts was performed. We then carried out a genome-wide association meta-analysis of age at first cannabis use in a discovery sample of 24 953 individuals from nine European, North American and Australian cohorts, and a replication sample of 3735 individuals.

RESULTS

The twin-based heritability for age at first cannabis use was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 19-60%]. Shared and unique environmental factors explained 39% (95% CI = 20-56%) and 22% (95% CI = 16-29%). The genome-wide association meta-analysis identified five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 16 within the calcium-transporting ATPase gene (ATP2C2) at P < 5E-08. All five SNPs are in high linkage disequilibrium (LD) (r2  > 0.8), with the strongest association at the intronic variant rs1574587 (P = 4.09E-09). Gene-based tests of association identified the ATP2C2 gene on 16q24.1 (P = 1.33e-06). Although the five SNPs and ATP2C2 did not replicate, ATP2C2 has been associated with cocaine dependence in a previous study. ATP2B2, which is a member of the same calcium signalling pathway, has been associated previously with opioid dependence. SNP-based heritability for age at first cannabis use was non-significant.

CONCLUSION

Age at cannabis initiation appears to be moderately heritable in western countries, and individual differences in onset can be explained by separate but correlated genetic liabilities. The significant association between age of initiation and ATP2C2 is consistent with the role of calcium signalling mechanisms in substance use disorders.

Comparative Evaluation of Machine Learning Strategies for Analyzing Big Data in Psychiatry

The requirement of innovative big data analytics has become a critical success factor for research in biological psychiatry. Integrative analyses across distributed data resources are considered essential for untangling the biological complexity of mental illnesses. However, little is known about algorithm properties for such integrative machine learning. Here, we performed a comparative analysis of eight machine learning algorithms for identification of reproducible biological fingerprints across data sources, using five transcriptome-wide expression datasets of schizophrenia patients and controls as a use case. We found that multi-task learning (MTL) with network structure (MTL_NET) showed superior accuracy compared to other MTL formulations as well as single task learning, and tied performance with support vector machines (SVM). Compared to SVM, MTL_NET showed significant benefits regarding the variability of accuracy estimates, as well as its robustness to cross-dataset and sampling variability. These results support the utility of this algorithm as a flexible tool for integrative machine learning in psychiatry.

Education can reduce health differences related to genetic risk of obesity

This work investigates whether genetic makeup moderates the effects of education on health. Low statistical power and endogenous measures of environment have been obstacles to the credible estimation of such gene-by-environment interactions. We overcome these obstacles by combining a natural experiment that generated variation in secondary education with polygenic scores for a quarter-million individuals. The additional schooling affected body size, lung function, and blood pressure in middle age. The improvements in body size and lung function were larger for individuals with high genetic predisposition to obesity. As a result, education reduced the gap in unhealthy body size between those in the top and bottom terciles of genetic risk of obesity from 20 to 6 percentage points.

A polygenic p factor for major psychiatric disorders

It has recently been proposed that a single dimension, called the p factor, can capture a person's liability to mental disorder. Relevant to the p hypothesis, recent genetic research has found surprisingly high genetic correlations between pairs of psychiatric disorders. Here, for the first time, we compare genetic correlations from different methods and examine their support for a genetic p factor. We tested the hypothesis of a genetic p factor by applying principal component analysis to matrices of genetic correlations between major psychiatric disorders estimated by three methods-family study, genome-wide complex trait analysis, and linkage-disequilibrium score regression-and on a matrix of polygenic score correlations constructed for each individual in a UK-representative sample of 7 026 unrelated individuals. All disorders loaded positively on a first unrotated principal component, which accounted for 57, 43, 35, and 22% of the variance respectively for the four methods. Our results showed that all four methods provided strong support for a genetic p factor that represents the pinnacle of the hierarchical genetic architecture of psychopathology.

Making Genetic Testing More Clinically Valuable

The concepts discussed in this article-from the limitations of current assessment tools, to the emerging research on polygenic analyses, to my own thoughts about defining functional genetic categories-are all very relevant to the goal of improving the precision implementation of personalized lifestyle medicine for many complex chronic diseases. By using this lens of understanding the interaction between genes and lifestyle, many clinical studies demonstrating the effectiveness of lifestyle in improving health outcome in patients with chronic diseases can be identified.

Enhancing Psychosis-Spectrum Nosology Through an International Data Sharing Initiative

The latent structure of schizotypy and psychosis-spectrum symptoms remains poorly understood. Furthermore, molecular genetic substrates are poorly defined, largely due to the substantial resources required to collect rich phenotypic data across diverse populations. Sample sizes of phenotypic studies are often insufficient for advanced structural equation modeling approaches. In the last 50 years, efforts in both psychiatry and psychological science have moved toward (1) a dimensional model of psychopathology (eg, the current Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology [HiTOP] initiative), (2) an integration of methods and measures across traits and units of analysis (eg, the RDoC initiative), and (3) powerful, impactful study designs maximizing sample size to detect subtle genomic variation relating to complex traits (the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium [PGC]). These movements are important to the future study of the psychosis spectrum, and to resolving heterogeneity with respect to instrument and population. The International Consortium of Schizotypy Research is composed of over 40 laboratories in 12 countries, and to date, members have compiled a body of schizotypy- and psychosis-related phenotype data from more than 30000 individuals. It has become apparent that compiling data into a protected, relational database and crowdsourcing analytic and data science expertise will result in significant enhancement of current research on the structure and biological substrates of the psychosis spectrum. The authors present a data-sharing infrastructure similar to that of the PGC, and a resource-sharing infrastructure similar to that of HiTOP. This report details the rationale and benefits of the phenotypic data collective and presents an open invitation for participation.

Missing compared to what? Revisiting heritability, genes and culture

Standard models for the determination of phenotypes from genes are grounded in simple assumptions that are inherent in the modern evolutionary synthesis (MES), which was developed in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s. The MES was framed in the context of Mendelian genetic transmission enhanced by the Fisherian view of the way discretely inherited genes determine continuously quantitative phenotypes. The statistical models that are used to estimate and interpret genetic contributions to human phenotypes-including behavioural traits-are constructed within the framework of the MES. Variance analysis constitutes the main tool and is used under this framework to characterize genetic inheritance, and hence determination of phenotypes. In this essay, we show that cultural inheritance, when incorporated into models for the determination of phenotypes, can sharply reduce estimates of the genetic contribution to these phenotypes. Recognition of the importance of non-genetic transmission of many human traits is becoming ever more necessary to prevent regression to the debates of the 1970s and 1980s concerning policies based on genetic determination of complex human phenotypes.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'.

Polygenic risk scoring and prediction of mental health outcomes

Psychiatric conditions are highly polygenic, meaning that genetic risk arises from many hundreds or thousands of genetic variants. Psychiatric genomics and psychological science are increasingly using polygenic risk scoring-the integration of all common genetic variant effects into a single risk metric-to model latent risk and to predict mental health outcomes. This review discusses the use of these scores in psychology and psychiatry to date, important methodological considerations, and potential of scoring methods for informing psychological science. Polygenic risk scores can easily be added to environmental and behavioral genetic models of latent risk, making them desirable metrics for use in psychological research.

Variants associating with uterine leiomyoma highlight genetic background shared by various cancers and hormone-related traits

Uterine leiomyomas are common benign tumors of the myometrium. We performed a meta-analysis of two genome-wide association studies of leiomyoma in European women (16,595 cases and 523,330 controls), uncovering 21 variants at 16 loci that associate with the disease. Five variants were previously reported to confer risk of various malignant or benign tumors (rs78378222 in TP53, rs10069690 in TERT, rs1800057 and rs1801516 in ATM, and rs7907606 at OBFC1) and four signals are located at established risk loci for hormone-related traits (endometriosis and breast cancer) at 1q36.12 (CDC42/WNT4), 2p25.1 (GREB1), 20p12.3 (MCM8), and 6q26.2 (SYNE1/ESR1). Polygenic score for leiomyoma, computed using UKB data, is significantly correlated with risk of cancer in the Icelandic population. Functional annotation suggests that the non-coding risk variants affect multiple genes, including ESR1. Our results provide insights into the genetic background of leiomyoma that are shared by other benign and malignant tumors and highlight the role of hormones in leiomyoma growth.

Uterine leiomyomas are common benign tumors. Here, a meta-analysis of two European leiomyoma GWAS uncovers 21 leiomyoma risk variants at 16 loci, providing evidence of genetic overlap between leiomyoma and various benign and malignant tumors and highlighting the role of estrogen in tumor growth.

The stability of educational achievement across school years is largely explained by genetic factors

Little is known about the etiology of developmental change and continuity in educational achievement. Here, we study achievement from primary school to the end of compulsory education for 6000 twin pairs in the UK-representative Twins Early Development Study sample. Results showed that educational achievement is highly heritable across school years and across subjects studied at school (twin heritability ~60%; SNP heritability ~30%); achievement is highly stable (phenotypic correlations ~0.70 from ages 7 to 16). Twin analyses, applying simplex and common pathway models, showed that genetic factors accounted for most of this stability (70%), even after controlling for intelligence (60%). Shared environmental factors also contributed to the stability, while change was mostly accounted for by individual-specific environmental factors. Polygenic scores, derived from a genome-wide association analysis of adult years of education, also showed stable effects on school achievement. We conclude that the remarkable stability of achievement is largely driven genetically even after accounting for intelligence.

Polygenic risk, family cohesion, and adolescent aggression in Mexican American and European American families: Developmental pathways to alcohol use

Poor family cohesion and elevated adolescent aggression are associated with greater alcohol use in adolescence and early adulthood. In addition, evocative gene-environment correlations (rGEs) can underlie the interplay between offspring characteristics and negative family functioning, contributing to substance use. Gene-environment interplay has rarely been examined in racial/ethnic minority populations. The current study examined adolescents' polygenic risk scores for aggression in evocative rGEs underlying aggression and family cohesion during adolescence, their contributions to alcohol use in early adulthood (n = 479), and differences between Mexican American and European American subsamples. Results suggest an evocative rGE between polygenic risk scores, aggression, and low family cohesion, with aggression contributing to low family cohesion over time. Greater family cohesion was associated with lower levels of alcohol use in early adulthood and this association was stronger for Mexican American adolescents compared to European American adolescents. Results are discussed with respect to integration of culture and racial/ethnic minority samples into genetic research and implications for alcohol use.

A study paradigm integrating prospective epidemiologic cohorts and electronic health records to identify disease biomarkers

Defining the full spectrum of human disease associated with a biomarker is necessary to advance the biomarker into clinical practice. We hypothesize that associating biomarker measurements with electronic health record (EHR) populations based on shared genetic architectures would establish the clinical epidemiology of the biomarker. We use Bayesian sparse linear mixed modeling to calculate SNP weightings for 53 biomarkers from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. We use the SNP weightings to computed predicted biomarker values in an EHR population and test associations with 1139 diagnoses. Here we report 116 associations meeting a Bonferroni level of significance. A false discovery rate (FDR)-based significance threshold reveals more known and undescribed associations across a broad range of biomarkers, including biometric measures, plasma proteins and metabolites, functional assays, and behaviors. We confirm an inverse association between LDL-cholesterol level and septicemia risk in an independent epidemiological cohort. This approach efficiently discovers biomarker-disease associations.

Biomarker identification requires prohibitively large cohorts with gene expression and phenotype data. The approach introduced here learns polygenic predictors of expression from genetic and expression data, used to infer biomarker levels in patients with genetic and disease information.

MAP1B mutations cause intellectual disability and extensive white matter deficit

Discovery of coding variants in genes that confer risk of neurodevelopmental disorders is an important step towards understanding the pathophysiology of these disorders. Whole-genome sequencing of 31,463 Icelanders uncovers a frameshift variant (E712KfsTer10) in microtubule-associated protein 1B (MAP1B) that associates with ID/low IQ in a large pedigree (genome-wide corrected P = 0.022). Additional stop-gain variants in MAP1B (E1032Ter and R1664Ter) validate the association with ID and IQ. Carriers have 24% less white matter (WM) volume (β = −2.1SD, P = 5.1 × 10⁻⁸), 47% less corpus callosum (CC) volume (β = −2.4SD, P = 5.5 × 10⁻¹⁰) and lower brain-wide fractional anisotropy (P = 6.7 × 10⁻⁴). In summary, we show that loss of MAP1B function affects general cognitive ability through a profound, brain-wide WM deficit with likely disordered or compromised axons.

Intellectual disability (ID) is characterized by an intelligence quotient of below 70 and impaired adaptive skills. Here, analyzing whole genome sequences from 31,463 Icelanders, Walters et al. identify variants in MAP1B associated with ID and extensive brain-wide white matter deficits.

Deep-coverage whole genome sequences and blood lipids among 16,324 individuals

Large-scale deep-coverage whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is now feasible and offers potential advantages for locus discovery. We perform WGS in 16,324 participants from four ancestries at mean depth >29X and analyze genotypes with four quantitative traits-plasma total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides. Common variant association yields known loci except for few variants previously poorly imputed. Rare coding variant association yields known Mendelian dyslipidemia genes but rare non-coding variant association detects no signals. A high 2M-SNP LDL-C polygenic score (top 5th percentile) confers similar effect size to a monogenic mutation (~30 mg/dl higher for each); however, among those with severe hypercholesterolemia, 23% have a high polygenic score and only 2% carry a monogenic mutation. At these sample sizes and for these phenotypes, the incremental value of WGS for discovery is limited but WGS permits simultaneous assessment of monogenic and polygenic models to severe hypercholesterolemia.

Genome-wide polygenic scores for common diseases identify individuals with risk equivalent to monogenic mutations

A key public health need is to identify individuals at high risk for a given disease to enable enhanced screening or preventive therapies. Because most common diseases have a genetic component, one important approach is to stratify individuals based on inherited DNA variation.¹ Proposed clinical applications have largely focused on finding carriers of rare monogenic mutations at several-fold increased risk. Although most disease risk is polygenic in nature,^2–5 it has not yet been possible to use polygenic predictors to identify individuals at risk comparable to monogenic mutations. Here, we develop and validate genome-wide polygenic scores for five common diseases. The approach identifies 8.0%, 6.1%, 3.5%, 3.2% and 1.5% of the population at greater than three-fold increased risk for coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, type 2 diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, and breast cancer, respectively. For CAD, this prevalence is 20-fold higher than the carrier frequency of rare monogenic mutations conferring comparable risk.⁶ We propose that it is time to contemplate the inclusion of polygenic risk prediction in clinical care and discuss relevant issues.

PRS-on-Spark (PRSoS): a novel, efficient and flexible approach for generating polygenic risk scores

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) describe the genomic contribution to complex phenotypes and consistently account for a larger proportion of variance in outcome than single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) alone. However, there is little consensus on the optimal data input for generating PRS, and existing approaches largely preclude the use of imputed posterior probabilities and strand-ambiguous SNPs i.e., A/T or C/G polymorphisms. Our ability to predict complex traits that arise from the additive effects of a large number of SNPs would likely benefit from a more inclusive approach.

RESULTS

We developed PRS-on-Spark (PRSoS), a software implemented in Apache Spark and Python that accommodates different data inputs and strand-ambiguous SNPs to calculate PRS. We compared performance between PRSoS and an existing software (PRSice v1.25) for generating PRS for major depressive disorder using a community cohort (N = 264). We found PRSoS to perform faster than PRSice v1.25 when PRS were generated for a large number of SNPs (~ 17 million SNPs; t = 42.865, p = 5.43E-04). We also show that the use of imputed posterior probabilities and the inclusion of strand-ambiguous SNPs increase the proportion of variance explained by a PRS for major depressive disorder (from 4.3% to 4.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

PRSoS provides the user with the ability to generate PRS using an inclusive and efficient approach that considers a larger number of SNPs than conventional approaches. We show that a PRS for major depressive disorder that includes strand-ambiguous SNPs, calculated using PRSoS, accounts for the largest proportion of variance in symptoms of depression in a community cohort, demonstrating the utility of this approach. The availability of this software will help users develop more informative PRS for a variety of complex phenotypes.

Education, Smoking, and Cohort Change: Forwarding a Multidimensional Theory of the Environmental Moderation of Genetic Effects

We introduce a genetic correlation by environment interaction model [(rG)xE] which allows for social environmental moderation of the genetic relationship between two traits. To empirically demonstrate the significance of the (rG)xE perspective, we use genome wide information from respondents of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS; n = 8,181; birth years 1920-1959) and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health; n = 4,347; birth years 1974-1983) to examine whether the genetic correlation (rG) between education and smoking has increased over historical time. Genetic correlation estimates (rG_HRS = -0.357; rG_{Add Health} = -0.729) support this hypothesis. Using polygenic scores for educational attainment, we show that this is not due to latent indicators of intellectual capacity, and we highlight the importance of education itself as an explanation of the increasing genetic correlation. Analyses based on contextual variation the milieus of the Add Health respondents corroborate key elements of the birth cohort analyses. We argue that the increasing overlap with respect to genes associated with educational attainment and smoking is a fundamentally social process involving complex process of selection based on observable behaviors that may be linked to genotype.

Polygenic prediction of the phenome, across ancestry, in emerging adulthood

BACKGROUND

Identifying genetic relationships between complex traits in emerging adulthood can provide useful etiological insights into risk for psychopathology. College-age individuals are under-represented in genomic analyses thus far, and the majority of work has focused on the clinical disorder or cognitive abilities rather than normal-range behavioral outcomes.

METHODS

This study examined a sample of emerging adults 18-22 years of age (N = 5947) to construct an atlas of polygenic risk for 33 traits predicting relevant phenotypic outcomes. Twenty-eight hypotheses were tested based on the previous literature on samples of European ancestry, and the availability of rich assessment data allowed for polygenic predictions across 55 psychological and medical phenotypes.

RESULTS

Polygenic risk for schizophrenia (SZ) in emerging adults predicted anxiety, depression, nicotine use, trauma, and family history of psychological disorders. Polygenic risk for neuroticism predicted anxiety, depression, phobia, panic, neuroticism, and was correlated with polygenic risk for cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate the extensive impact of genetic risk for SZ, neuroticism, and major depression on a range of health outcomes in early adulthood. Minimal cross-ancestry replication of these phenomic patterns of polygenic influence underscores the need for more genome-wide association studies of non-European populations.

Genetic analysis of social-class mobility in five longitudinal studies

A summary genetic measure, called a "polygenic score," derived from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of education can modestly predict a person's educational and economic success. This prediction could signal a biological mechanism: Education-linked genetics could encode characteristics that help people get ahead in life. Alternatively, prediction could reflect social history: People from well-off families might stay well-off for social reasons, and these families might also look alike genetically. A key test to distinguish biological mechanism from social history is if people with higher education polygenic scores tend to climb the social ladder beyond their parents' position. Upward mobility would indicate education-linked genetics encodes characteristics that foster success. We tested if education-linked polygenic scores predicted social mobility in >20,000 individuals in five longitudinal studies in the United States, Britain, and New Zealand. Participants with higher polygenic scores achieved more education and career success and accumulated more wealth. However, they also tended to come from better-off families. In the key test, participants with higher polygenic scores tended to be upwardly mobile compared with their parents. Moreover, in sibling-difference analysis, the sibling with the higher polygenic score was more upwardly mobile. Thus, education GWAS discoveries are not mere correlates of privilege; they influence social mobility within a life. Additional analyses revealed that a mother's polygenic score predicted her child's attainment over and above the child's own polygenic score, suggesting parents' genetics can also affect their children's attainment through environmental pathways. Education GWAS discoveries affect socioeconomic attainment through influence on individuals' family-of-origin environments and their social mobility.

Gene discovery and polygenic prediction from a genome-wide association study of educational attainment in 1.1 million individuals

Here we conducted a large-scale genetic association analysis of educational attainment in a sample of approximately 1.1 million individuals and identify 1,271 independent genome-wide-significant SNPs. For the SNPs taken together, we found evidence of heterogeneous effects across environments. The SNPs implicate genes involved in brain-development processes and neuron-to-neuron communication. In a separate analysis of the X chromosome, we identify 10 independent genome-wide-significant SNPs and estimate a SNP heritability of around 0.3% in both men and women, consistent with partial dosage compensation. A joint (multi-phenotype) analysis of educational attainment and three related cognitive phenotypes generates polygenic scores that explain 11-13% of the variance in educational attainment and 7-10% of the variance in cognitive performance. This prediction accuracy substantially increases the utility of polygenic scores as tools in research.

Genomic Prediction Using Individual-Level Data and Summary Statistics from Multiple Populations

This study presents a method for genomic prediction that uses individual-level data and summary statistics from multiple populations. Genome-wide markers are nowadays widely used to predict complex traits, and genomic prediction using multi-population data are an appealing approach to achieve higher prediction accuracies. However, sharing of individual-level data across populations is not always possible. We present a method that enables integration of summary statistics from separate analyses with the available individual-level data. The data can either consist of individuals with single or multiple (weighted) phenotype records per individual. We developed a method based on a hypothetical joint analysis model and absorption of population-specific information. We show that population-specific information is fully captured by estimated allele substitution effects and the accuracy of those estimates, i.e., the summary statistics. The method gives identical result as the joint analysis of all individual-level data when complete summary statistics are available. We provide a series of easy-to-use approximations that can be used when complete summary statistics are not available or impractical to share. Simulations show that approximations enable integration of different sources of information across a wide range of settings, yielding accurate predictions. The method can be readily extended to multiple-traits. In summary, the developed method enables integration of genome-wide data in the individual-level or summary statistics from multiple populations to obtain more accurate estimates of allele substitution effects and genomic predictions.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis in 269,867 individuals identifies new genetic and functional links to intelligence

Intelligence is highly heritable1 and a major determinant of human health and well-being2. Recent genome-wide meta-analyses have identified 24 genomic loci linked to variation in intelligence3-7, but much about its genetic underpinnings remains to be discovered. Here, we present a large-scale genetic association study of intelligence (n = 269,867), identifying 205 associated genomic loci (190 new) and 1,016 genes (939 new) via positional mapping, expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) mapping, chromatin interaction mapping, and gene-based association analysis. We find enrichment of genetic effects in conserved and coding regions and associations with 146 nonsynonymous exonic variants. Associated genes are strongly expressed in the brain, specifically in striatal medium spiny neurons and hippocampal pyramidal neurons. Gene set analyses implicate pathways related to nervous system development and synaptic structure. We confirm previous strong genetic correlations with multiple health-related outcomes, and Mendelian randomization analysis results suggest protective effects of intelligence for Alzheimer's disease and ADHD and bidirectional causation with pleiotropic effects for schizophrenia. These results are a major step forward in understanding the neurobiology of cognitive function as well as genetically related neurological and psychiatric disorders.

Replicability and Prediction: Lessons and Challenges from GWAS

Since the publication of the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) landmark study a decade ago, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the discovery of thousands of risk variants involved in disease etiology. This success story has two angles that are often overlooked. First, GWAS findings are highly replicable. This is an unprecedented phenomenon in complex trait genetics, and indeed in many areas of science, which in past decades have been plagued by false positives. At a time of increasing concerns about the lack of reproducibility, we examine the biological and methodological reasons that account for the replicability of GWAS and identify the challenges ahead. In contrast to the exemplary success of disease gene discovery, at present GWAS findings are not useful for predicting phenotypes. We close with an overview of the prospects for individualized prediction of disease risk and its foreseeable impact in clinical practice.

Host genetics and microbiome associations through the lens of genome wide association studies

Recent studies indicate that the gut microbiome is partially heritable, motivating the need to investigate microbiome-host genome associations via microbial genome-wide association studies (mGWAS). Existing mGWAS demonstrate that microbiome-host genotype associations are typically weak and are spread across multiple variants, similar to associations often observed in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of complex traits. Here we reconsider mGWAS by viewing them through the lens of GWAS, and demonstrate that there are striking similarities between the challenges and pitfalls faced by the two study designs. We further advocate the mGWAS community to adopt three key lessons learned over the history of GWAS: firstly, adopting uniform data and reporting formats to facilitate replication and meta-analysis efforts; secondly, enforcing stringent statistical criteria to reduce the number of false positive findings; and thirdly, considering the microbiome and the host genome as distinct entities, rather than studying different taxa and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) separately. Finally, we anticipate that mGWAS sample sizes will have to increase by orders of magnitude to reproducibly associate the host genome with the gut microbiome.

Fine-mapping of prostate cancer susceptibility loci in a large meta-analysis identifies candidate causal variants

Prostate cancer is a polygenic disease with a large heritable component. A number of common, low-penetrance prostate cancer risk loci have been identified through GWAS. Here we apply the Bayesian multivariate variable selection algorithm JAM to fine-map 84 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, using summary data from a large European ancestry meta-analysis. We observe evidence for multiple independent signals at 12 regions and 99 risk signals overall. Only 15 original GWAS tag SNPs remain among the catalogue of candidate variants identified; the remainder are replaced by more likely candidates. Biological annotation of our credible set of variants indicates significant enrichment within promoter and enhancer elements, and transcription factor-binding sites, including AR, ERG and FOXA1. In 40 regions at least one variant is colocalised with an eQTL in prostate cancer tissue. The refined set of candidate variants substantially increase the proportion of familial relative risk explained by these known susceptibility regions, which highlights the importance of fine-mapping studies and has implications for clinical risk profiling.

Methods for Polygenic Traits

An important aspect of public health is disease prediction and health promotion through better targeting of preventive strategies. Well-targeted preventive strategies will eventually decrease burden of diseases and thus precise prediction plays a crucial role in public health. Many investigators put efforts into finding models that improve prediction using known risk factors of diseases. Recently with the overwhelming load of genetic loci discovered for complex diseases through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), much of attention has been focused on the role of these genetic loci to improve prediction models. Genetic loci in solo explain little variance of diseases. It is thus necessary to create new genetic parameters that combine the effect of as many genetic loci as possible. Such new parameters aim to better distinguish individuals who will develop a disease from those who will not. In this chapter, various polygenic methods that use multiple genetic loci to directly or indirectly improve precision of genetic prediction are discussed.

Testing Familial Transmission of Smoking With Two Different Research Designs

Introduction

Classical twin studies show that smoking is heritable. To determine if shared family environment plays a role in addition to genetic factors, and if they interact (G×E), we use a children-of-twins design. In a second sample, we measure genetic influence with polygenic risk scores (PRS) and environmental influence with a question on exposure to smoking during childhood.

Methods

Data on smoking initiation were available for 723 children of 712 twins from the Netherlands Twin Register (64.9% female, median birth year 1985). Children were grouped in ascending order of risk, based on smoking status and zygosity of their twin-parent and his/her co-twin: never smoking twin-parent with a never smoking co-twin; never smoking twin-parent with a smoking dizygotic co-twin; never smoking twin-parent with a smoking monozygotic co-twin; and smoking twin-parent with a smoking or never smoking co-twin. For 4072 participants from the Netherlands Twin Register (67.3% female, median birth year 1973), PRS for smoking were computed and smoking initiation, smoking heaviness, and exposure to smoking during childhood were available.

Results

Patterns of smoking initiation in the four group children-of-twins design suggested shared familial influences in addition to genetic factors. PRS for ever smoking were associated with smoking initiation in all individuals. PRS for smoking heaviness were associated with smoking heaviness in individuals exposed to smoking during childhood, but not in non-exposed individuals.

Conclusions

Shared family environment influences smoking, over and above genetic factors. Genetic risk of smoking heaviness was only important for individuals exposed to smoking during childhood, versus those not exposed (G×E).

Implications

This study adds to the very few existing children-of-twins (CoT) studies on smoking and combines a CoT design with a second research design that utilizes polygenic risk scores and data on exposure to smoking during childhood. The results show that shared family environment affects smoking behavior over and above genetic factors. There was also evidence for gene-environment interaction (G×E) such that genetic risk of heavy versus light smoking was only important for individuals who were also exposed to (second-hand) smoking during childhood. Together, these findings give additional incentive to recommending parents not to expose their children to cigarette smoking.

A tutorial on conducting genome-wide association studies: Quality control and statistical analysis

OBJECTIVES

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have become increasingly popular to identify associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and phenotypic traits. The GWAS method is commonly applied within the social sciences. However, statistical analyses will need to be carefully conducted and the use of dedicated genetics software will be required. This tutorial aims to provide a guideline for conducting genetic analyses.

METHODS

We discuss and explain key concepts and illustrate how to conduct GWAS using example scripts provided through GitHub (https://github.com/MareesAT/GWA_tutorial/). In addition to the illustration of standard GWAS, we will also show how to apply polygenic risk score (PRS) analysis. PRS does not aim to identify individual SNPs but aggregates information from SNPs across the genome in order to provide individual-level scores of genetic risk.

RESULTS

The simulated data and scripts that will be illustrated in the current tutorial provide hands-on practice with genetic analyses. The scripts are based on PLINK, PRSice, and R, which are commonly used, freely available software tools that are accessible for novice users.

CONCLUSIONS

By providing theoretical background and hands-on experience, we aim to make GWAS more accessible to researchers without formal training in the field.

Improved Use of Small Reference Panels for Conditional and Joint Analysis with GWAS Summary Statistics

Due to issues of practicality and confidentiality of genomic data sharing on a large scale, typically only meta- or mega-analyzed genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data, not individual-level data, are publicly available. Reanalyses of such GWAS summary data for a wide range of applications have become more and more common and useful, which often require the use of an external reference panel with individual-level genotypic data to infer linkage disequilibrium (LD) among genetic variants. However, with a small sample size in only hundreds, as for the most popular 1000 Genomes Project European sample, estimation errors for LD are not negligible, leading to often dramatically increased numbers of false positives in subsequent analyses of GWAS summary data. To alleviate the problem in the context of association testing for a group of SNPs, we propose an alternative estimator of the covariance matrix with an idea similar to multiple imputation. We use numerical examples based on both simulated and real data to demonstrate the severe problem with the use of the 1000 Genomes Project reference panels, and the improved performance of our new approach.

Polygenic Risk Scores in Clinical Psychology: Bridging Genomic Risk to Individual Differences

Genomewide association studies (GWASs) across psychiatric phenotypes have shown that common genetic variants generally confer risk with small effect sizes (odds ratio < 1.1) that additively contribute to polygenic risk. Summary statistics derived from large discovery GWASs can be used to generate polygenic risk scores (PRS) in independent, target data sets to examine correlates of polygenic disorder liability (e.g., does genetic liability to schizophrenia predict cognition?). The intuitive appeal and generalizability of PRS have led to their widespread use and new insights into mechanisms of polygenic liability. However, when currently applied across traits they account for small amounts of variance (<3%), are relatively uninformative for clinical treatment, and, in isolation, provide no insight into molecular mechanisms. Larger GWASs are needed to increase the precision of PRS, and novel approaches integrating various data sources (e.g., multitrait analysis of GWASs) may improve the utility of current PRS.

Embracing polygenicity: a review of methods and tools for psychiatric genetics research

The availability of genome-wide genetic data on hundreds of thousands of people has led to an equally rapid growth in methodologies available to analyse these data. While the motivation for undertaking genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is identification of genetic markers associated with complex traits, once generated these data can be used for many other analyses. GWAS have demonstrated that complex traits exhibit a highly polygenic genetic architecture, often with shared genetic risk factors across traits. New methods to analyse data from GWAS are increasingly being used to address a diverse set of questions about the aetiology of complex traits and diseases, including psychiatric disorders. Here, we give an overview of some of these methods and present examples of how they have contributed to our understanding of psychiatric disorders. We consider: (i) estimation of the extent of genetic influence on traits, (ii) uncovering of shared genetic control between traits, (iii) predictions of genetic risk for individuals, (iv) uncovering of causal relationships between traits, (v) identifying causal single-nucleotide polymorphisms and genes or (vi) the detection of genetic heterogeneity. This classification helps organise the large number of recently developed methods, although some could be placed in more than one category. While some methods require GWAS data on individual people, others simply use GWAS summary statistics data, allowing novel well-powered analyses to be conducted at a low computational burden.

A genome-wide association study for extremely high intelligence

We used a case-control genome-wide association (GWA) design with cases consisting of 1238 individuals from the top 0.0003 (~170 mean IQ) of the population distribution of intelligence and 8172 unselected population-based controls. The single-nucleotide polymorphism heritability for the extreme IQ trait was 0.33 (0.02), which is the highest so far for a cognitive phenotype, and significant genome-wide genetic correlations of 0.78 were observed with educational attainment and 0.86 with population IQ. Three variants in locus ADAM12 achieved genome-wide significance, although they did not replicate with published GWA analyses of normal-range IQ or educational attainment. A genome-wide polygenic score constructed from the GWA results accounted for 1.6% of the variance of intelligence in the normal range in an unselected sample of 3414 individuals, which is comparable to the variance explained by GWA studies of intelligence with substantially larger sample sizes. The gene family plexins, members of which are mutated in several monogenic neurodevelopmental disorders, was significantly enriched for associations with high IQ. This study shows the utility of extreme trait selection for genetic study of intelligence and suggests that extremely high intelligence is continuous genetically with normal-range intelligence in the population.

Multi-polygenic score approach to trait prediction

A primary goal of polygenic scores, which aggregate the effects of thousands of trait-associated DNA variants discovered in genome-wide association studies (GWASs), is to estimate individual-specific genetic propensities and predict outcomes. This is typically achieved using a single polygenic score, but here we use a multi-polygenic score (MPS) approach to increase predictive power by exploiting the joint power of multiple discovery GWASs, without assumptions about the relationships among predictors. We used summary statistics of 81 well-powered GWASs of cognitive, medical and anthropometric traits to predict three core developmental outcomes in our independent target sample: educational achievement, body mass index (BMI) and general cognitive ability. We used regularized regression with repeated cross-validation to select from and estimate contributions of 81 polygenic scores in a UK representative sample of 6710 unrelated adolescents. The MPS approach predicted 10.9% variance in educational achievement, 4.8% in general cognitive ability and 5.4% in BMI in an independent test set, predicting 1.1%, 1.1%, and 1.6% more variance than the best single-score predictions. As other relevant GWA analyses are reported, they can be incorporated in MPS models to maximize phenotype prediction. The MPS approach should be useful in research with modest sample sizes to investigate developmental, multivariate and gene-environment interplay issues and, eventually, in clinical settings to predict and prevent problems using personalized interventions.

Predicting loneliness with polygenic scores of social, psychological and psychiatric traits

Loneliness is a heritable trait that accompanies multiple disorders. The association between loneliness and mental health indices may partly be due to inherited biological factors. We constructed polygenic scores for 27 traits related to behavior, cognition and mental health and tested their prediction for self-reported loneliness in a population-based sample of 8798 Dutch individuals. Polygenic scores for major depressive disorder (MDD), schizophrenia and bipolar disorder were significantly associated with loneliness. Of the Big Five personality dimensions, polygenic scores for neuroticism and conscientiousness also significantly predicted loneliness, as did the polygenic scores for subjective well-being, tiredness and self-rated health. When including all polygenic scores simultaneously into one model, only 2 major depression polygenic scores remained as significant predictors of loneliness. When controlling only for these 2 MDD polygenic scores, only neuroticism and schizophrenia remain significant. The total variation explained by all polygenic scores collectively was 1.7%. The association between the propensity to feel lonely and the susceptibility to psychiatric disorders thus pointed to a shared genetic etiology. The predictive power of polygenic scores will increase as the power of the genome-wide association studies on which they are based increases and may lead to clinically useful polygenic scores that can inform on the genetic predisposition to loneliness and mental health.

Polygenic risk for severe psychopathology among Europeans is associated with major depressive disorder in Han Chinese women

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated that several major psychiatric disorders are influenced by shared genetic factors. This shared liability may influence clinical features of a given disorder (e.g. severity, age at onset). However, findings have largely been limited to European samples; little is known about the consistency of shared genetic liability across ethnicities.

METHOD

The relationship between polygenic risk for several major psychiatric diagnoses and major depressive disorder (MDD) was examined in a sample of unrelated Han Chinese women. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were generated using European discovery samples and tested in the China, Oxford, and VCU Experimental Research on Genetic Epidemiology [CONVERGE (maximum N = 10 502)], a sample ascertained for recurrent MDD. Genetic correlations between discovery phenotypes and MDD were also assessed. In addition, within-case characteristics were examined.

RESULTS

European-based polygenic risk for several major psychiatric disorder phenotypes was significantly associated with the MDD case status in CONVERGE. Risk for clinically significant indicators (neuroticism and subjective well-being) was also associated with case-control status. The variance accounted for by PRS for both psychopathology and for well-being was similar to estimates reported for within-ethnicity comparisons in European samples. However, European-based PRS were largely unassociated with CONVERGE family history, clinical characteristics, or comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

The shared genetic liability across severe forms of psychopathology is largely consistent across European and Han Chinese ethnicities, with little attenuation of genetic signal relative to within-ethnicity analyses. The overall absence of associations between PRS for other disorders and within-MDD variation suggests that clinical characteristics of MDD may arise due to contributions from ethnicity-specific factors and/or pathoplasticity.

Transcriptome-wide association study of schizophrenia and chromatin activity yields mechanistic disease insights

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 100 risk loci for schizophrenia, but the causal mechanisms remain largely unknown. We performed a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) integrating a schizophrenia GWAS of 79,845 individuals from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium with expression data from brain, blood, and adipose tissues across 3,693 primarily control individuals. We identified 157 TWAS-significant genes, of which 35 did not overlap a known GWAS locus. Of these 157 genes, 42 were associated with specific chromatin features measured in independent samples, thus highlighting potential regulatory targets for follow-up. Suppression of one identified susceptibility gene, mapk3, in zebrafish showed a significant effect on neurodevelopmental phenotypes. Expression and splicing from the brain captured most of the TWAS effect across all genes. This large-scale connection of associations to target genes, tissues, and regulatory features is an essential step in moving toward a mechanistic understanding of GWAS.

The Nature of Nurture: Using a Virtual-Parent Design to Test Parenting Effects on Children's Educational Attainment in Genotyped Families

Research on environmental and genetic pathways to complex traits such as educational attainment (EA) is confounded by uncertainty over whether correlations reflect effects of transmitted parental genes, causal family environments, or some, possibly interactive, mixture of both. Thus, an aggregate of thousands of alleles associated with EA (a polygenic risk score; PRS) may tap parental behaviors and home environments promoting EA in the offspring. New methods for unpicking and determining these causal pathways are required. Here, we utilize the fact that parents pass, at random, 50% of their genome to a given offspring to create independent scores for the transmitted alleles (conventional EA PRS) and a parental score based on allelesnot transmittedto the offspring (EA VP_PRS). The formal effect of non-transmitted alleles on offspring attainment was tested in 2,333 genotyped twins for whom high-quality measures of EA, assessed at age 17 years, were available, and whose parents were also genotyped. Four key findings were observed. First, the EA PRS and EA VP_PRS were empirically independent, validating the virtual-parent design. Second, in this family-based design, children's own EA PRS significantly predicted their EA (β = 0.15), ruling out stratification confounds as a cause of the association of attainment with the EA PRS. Third, parental EA PRS predicted the SES environment parents provided to offspring (β = 0.20), and parental SES and offspring EA were significantly associated (β = 0.33). This would suggest that the EA PRS is at least as strongly linked to social competence as it is to EA, leading to higher attained SES in parents and, therefore, a higher experienced SES for children. In a full structural equation model taking account of family genetic relatedness across multiple siblings the non-transmitted allele effects were estimated at similar values; but, in this more complex model, confidence intervals included zero. A test using the forthcoming EA3 PRS may clarify this outcome. The virtual-parent method may be applied to clarify causality in other phenotypes where observational evidence suggests parenting may moderate expression of other outcomes, for instance in psychiatry.

Collective effects of common SNPs and risk prediction in lung cancer

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in both men and women in the US. While most sporadic lung cancer cases are related to environmental factors such as smoking, genetic susceptibility may also play an important role and a number of lung cancer associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been identified although many remain to be found. The collective effects of genome-wide minor alleles of common SNPs, or the minor allele content (MAC) in an individual, have been linked with quantitative variations of complex traits and diseases. Here we studied MAC in lung cancer using previously published SNPs data sets (US and Finland samples) and found higher MAC in cases relative to matched controls. A set of 5400 SNPs with MA (MAF < 0.5) more common in cases (P < 0.08) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) r² = 0.3 was found to have the best predictive accuracy. These results identify higher MAC in lung cancer susceptibility and provide a meaningful genetic method to identify those at risk of lung cancer.

Improving genetic prediction by leveraging genetic correlations among human diseases and traits

Genomic prediction has the potential to contribute to precision medicine. However, to date, the utility of such predictors is limited due to low accuracy for most traits. Here theory and simulation study are used to demonstrate that widespread pleiotropy among phenotypes can be utilised to improve genomic risk prediction. We show how a genetic predictor can be created as a weighted index that combines published genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics across many different traits. We apply this framework to predict risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in the Psychiatric Genomics consortium data, finding substantial heterogeneity in prediction accuracy increases across cohorts. For six additional phenotypes in the UK Biobank data, we find increases in prediction accuracy ranging from 0.7% for height to 47% for type 2 diabetes, when using a multi-trait predictor that combines published summary statistics from multiple traits, as compared to a predictor based only on one trait.

Determining Genetic Causal Variants Through Multivariate Regression Using Mixture Model Penalty

With the availability of high-throughput sequencing data, identification of genetic causal variants accurately requires the efficient incorporation of function annotation data into the optimization routine. This motivates the need for development of novel methods for genome wide association studies with special focus on fine-mapping capabilities. A penalty function method that is simple to implement and capable of integrating functional annotation information into the estimation procedure, is proposed in this work. The idea is to use the prior distribution of the effect sizes explicitly as a penalty function. The estimates obtained are shown to be better correlated with the true effect sizes (in comparison with a few existing techniques). An increase in the positive and negative predictive value is demonstrated using Hapgen2 simulated data.

The new genetics of intelligence

Intelligence - the ability to learn, reason and solve problems - is at the forefront of behavioural genetic research. Intelligence is highly heritable and predicts important educational, occupational and health outcomes better than any other trait. Recent genome-wide association studies have successfully identified inherited genome sequence differences that account for 20% of the 50% heritability of intelligence. These findings open new avenues for research into the causes and consequences of intelligence using genome-wide polygenic scores that aggregate the effects of thousands of genetic variants.