Areas of global importance for conserving terrestrial biodiversity, carbon and water

Expanding protected area coverage for migratory birds could improve long-term population trends

Populations of many migratory taxa have been declining over recent decades. Although protected areas are a cornerstone for conservation, their role in protecting migratory species can be incomplete due to the dynamic distributions of these species. Here, we use a pan-European citizen science bird occurrence dataset (EurobirdPortal) with Spatiotemporal Exploratory Modelling to assess how the weekly distributions of 30 passerine and near passerine species overlap with protected areas in Europe and compare this to range adjusted policy protection targets. Thirteen of our 30 species were inadequately covered by protected areas for some, or all, of the European part of their annual cycle under a target based on the 2020 Convention on Biodiversity framework and none were adequately covered under a target based on the 2030 Convention on Biodiversity framework. Species associated with farmland had the lowest percentage of their weekly distribution protected. The percentage of a species' distribution within protected areas was positively correlated with its long-term population trend, even after accounting for confounding factors, suggesting a positive influence of protected areas on long-term trends. This emphasises the positive contribution that an informed expansion of the European protected area system could play for the future conservation of migratory land birds.

Narratives for Positive Nature Futures in Europe

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a novel approach for the development of positive scenarios centered on the relationship of nature and people, emphasizing biodiversity as part of the solution to environmental challenges across various spatial and temporal scales, explicitly addressing a plurality of values for nature. In this work, we describe the process that has led to the formulation of continental-scale positive narratives for conservation in Europe based on the NFF and its value perspectives (Nature for Nature; Nature for Society; Nature as Culture), through an expert group elicitation. We focused on 6 topics in the narratives: Nature Protection and Restoration; Forest Ecosystems; Freshwater Ecosystems; Urban Systems; Agriculture, and Energy. We analyze differences and similarities among the narratives across these topics. We develop three novel Nature Futures narratives for Europe with contrasting perspectives and priorities for the six topics. Within the EU socioeconomic trends and policy framework, common solutions that simultaneously tackle biodiversity conservation and instrumental and cultural Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) provision emerged. This set of narratives may integrate preferences concerning EU-level conservation targets and plausible socio-ecological development pathways, supporting the modeling of positive scenarios for nature that can be crucial in guiding policy decisions towards recovery of nature.

Systematic conservation prioritization with the prioritizr R package

Plans for expanding protected area systems (prioritizations) need to fulfill conservation objectives. They also need to account for other factors, such as economic feasibility and anthropogenic land-use requirements. Although prioritizations are often generated with decision support tools, most tools have limitations that hinder their use for decision-making. We outlined how the prioritizr R package (https://prioritizr.net) can be used for systematic conservation prioritization. This decision support tool provides a flexible interface to build conservation planning problems. It can leverage a variety of commercial (e.g., Gurobi) and open-source (e.g., CBC and SYMPHONY) exact algorithm solvers to identify optimal solutions in a short period. It is also compatible with a variety of spatially explicit (e.g., ESRI Shapefile, GeoTIFF) and nonspatial tabular (e.g., Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet) data formats. Additionally, it provides functionality for evaluating prioritizations, such as assessing the relative importance of different places selected by a prioritization. To showcase the prioritizr R package, we applied it to a case study based in Washington state (United States) for which we developed a prioritization to improve protected area coverage of native avifauna. We accounted for land acquisition costs, existing protected areas, places that might not be suitable for protected area establishment, and spatial fragmentation. We also conducted a benchmark analysis to examine the performance of different solvers. The prioritization identified 12,400 km2 of priority areas for increasing the percentage of species' distributions covered by protected areas. Although open source and commercial solvers were able to quickly solve large-scale conservation planning problems, commercial solvers were required for complex, large-scale problems.. The prioritizr R package is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN). In addition to reserve selection, it can inform habitat restoration, connectivity enhancement, and ecosystem service provisioning. It has been used in numerous conservation planning exercises to inform best practices and aid real-world decision-making.

Advances in systematic conservation planning to meet global biodiversity goals

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) involves the cost-effective placement and application of management actions to achieve biodiversity conservation objectives. Given the political momentum for greater global nature protection, restoration, and improved management of natural resources articulated in the targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework, assessing the state-of-the-art of SCP is timely. Recent advances in SCP include faster and more exact algorithms and software, inclusion of ecosystem services and multiple facets of biodiversity (e.g., genetic diversity, functional diversity), climate-smart approaches, prioritizing multiple actions, and increased SCP accessibility through online tools. To promote the adoption of SCP by decision-makers, we provide recommendations for bridging the gap between SCP science and practice, such as standardizing the communication of planning uncertainty and capacity-building training courses.

LIFE: A metric for mapping the impact of land-cover change on global extinctions

Human-driven habitat loss is recognized as the greatest cause of the biodiversity crisis, yet to date we lack robust, spatially explicit metrics quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic changes in habitat extent on species' extinctions. Existing metrics either fail to consider species identity or focus solely on recent habitat losses. The persistence score approach developed by Durán et al. (Durán et al. 2020 Methods Ecol. Evol. 11, 910-921 (doi:10.1111/2041-210X.13427) represented an important development by combining species' ecologies and land-cover data while considering the cumulative and non-linear impact of past habitat loss on species' probability of extinction. However, it is computationally demanding, limiting its global use and application. Here we couple the persistence score approach with high-performance computing to generate global maps of what we term the LIFE (Land-cover change Impacts on Future Extinctions) metric for 30 875 species of terrestrial vertebrates at 1 arc-min resolution (3.4 km2 at the equator). These maps provide quantitative estimates, for the first time, of the marginal changes in the expected number of extinctions (both increases and decreases) caused by converting remaining natural vegetation to agriculture, and restoring farmland to natural habitat. We demonstrate statistically that this approach integrates information on species richness, endemism and past habitat loss. Our resulting maps can be used at scales from 0.5-1000 km2 and offer unprecedented opportunities to estimate the impact on extinctions of diverse actions that affect change in land cover, from individual dietary choices through to global protected area development.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

Global prioritization schemes vary in their impact on the placement of protected areas

In response to global declines in biodiversity, many global conservation prioritization schemes were developed to guide effective protected area establishment. Protected area coverage has grown dramatically since the introduction of several high-profile biodiversity prioritization schemes, but the impact of such schemes on protected area establishment has not been evaluated. We used matching methods and a Before-After Control-Impact causal analysis to evaluate the impact of two key prioritization schemes-Biodiversity Hotspots and Last of the Wild-representing examples of the reactive and proactive ends of the prioritization spectrum. We found that Last of the Wild had a positive impact on the rate of protection in its identified priority areas, but Biodiversity Hotspots did not. Because Biodiversity Hotspots are in or near human-dominated landscapes, this scheme may have been unable to overcome biases towards protecting areas with little human pressure. In contrast, Last of the Wild aligned with the tendency to protect areas far from high human use and thus with lower implementation costs, and so received greater uptake. Stronger links between large-scale prioritizations and more locally driven implementation of area-based conservation, as well as other forms of conservation action, are needed to overcome practical constraints and effectively protect biodiversity on an increasingly human-dominated planet.

Advancing at-risk species recovery planning in an era of rapid ecological change with a transparent, flexible, and expert-engaged approach

In the face of unprecedented ecological changes, the conservation community needs strategies to recover species at risk of extinction. On the Island of Maui, we collaborated with species experts and managers to assist with climate-resilient recovery planning for 36 at-risk native plant species by identifying priority areas for the management of recovery populations. To do this, we developed a tailored spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) approach distinguished by its emphasis on transparency, flexibility, and expert (TFE) engagement. Our TFE SCP approach consisted of 2 iterative steps: first, the generation of multiple candidate conservation footprints (i.e., prioritization solutions) with a flexible greedy algorithm that reflects conservation practitioners' priorities and, second, the selection of an optimal conservation footprint based on the consideration of trade-offs in expert-agreed criteria among footprints. This process maximized buy-in by involving conservation practitioners and experts throughout, from setting goals to reviewing optimization data, defining optimization rules, and designating planning units meaningful to practitioners. We minimized the conservation footprint area necessary to meet recovery goals while incorporating species-specific measures of habitat suitability and climate resilience and retaining species-specific information for guiding recovery efforts. Our approach reduced the overall necessary conservation area by 36%, compared with selecting optimal recovery habitats for each species separately, and still identified high-quality habitat for individual species. Compared with prioritizr (an existing SCP tool), our approach identified a conservation area of equal size but with higher quality habitat. By integrating the strengths of existing techniques in a flexible and transparent design, our approach can address natural resource management constraints and provide outputs suitable for local recovery planning, consequently enhancing engagement and buy-in from conservation practitioners and experts. It demonstrates a step forward in making conservation planning more responsive to real-world complexities and helps reduce barriers to implementation for local conservation practitioners.

Exploring the response of trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services to future land use changes in the hilly red soil region of Southern China

Studies on the potential disruptions that future land use changes may have on trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services (ESs) in the ecologically fragile region of hilly red soil region (HRSR) are still lacking. We employed multi-source observational data to project the land use patterns expected for the year 2035 in Jiangxi Province - a typical HRSR in China - across three specific scenarios: nature development (ND), economic development (ED), and ecological protection (EP). Through the integration of the InVEST model, correlation analysis, and geographically weighted regression methods, we evaluated habitat quality, soil conservation, water yield, and soil conservation, as well as the associated trade-offs/synergies among ESs. The results showed that the built-up land will continue to increase and occupy a large amount of cropland and woodland, resulting in a 0.79-1.96% reduction for the above four ESs under ND scenario. Under the ED scenario, the cropland and built-up land will increase by 2.95% and 12.00%, respectively, and most of them will convert from woodland, which will reduce ESs by 1.07-1.99%. Under the EP scenario, the expansion rate of built-up land will slow down and woodland will increase by 1.55%, leading to a 0.02-1.58% increase in ESs relative to the ED and ND scenarios. In addition, there were clear trade-offs observed in the ES pairs related to the water yield, while other ES pairs showed synergies. The proportions of counties that will experience changes in trade-off intensity, synergy intensity and the direction of trade-offs/synergies are expected to be 1-31%, 1-47% and 1-37%, respectively, from 2010 to 2035 under different scenarios. The study can provide valuable insights for ecological managers in HRSR in developing land use management strategies that optimize the mutual benefits of various ESs according to local conditions.

Spatially-explicit land use change emissions and carbon payback times of biofuels under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) requires airlines to offset their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions above 2019 levels by either buying carbon offsets or using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). These are drop-in jet fuels made from biomass or other renewable resources that reduce GHG emissions by at least 10 % compared to kerosene and meet certain sustainability criteria. This study assesses the direct land use change (DLUC) emissions of SAF, i.e., GHG emissions from on-site land conversion from previous uses (excluding primary forests, peatlands, wetlands, and protected and biodiversity-rich areas) into alternative feedstocks, considering spatial variability in global yields and land carbon stocks. The results provide DLUC values and carbon payback times at 0.5-degree resolution for six SAF pathways, with and without irrigation and a medium-input intensity, according to CORSIA sustainability criteria. When excluding CORSIA non-compliant areas, soybean SAF shows the highest mean DLUC factor (31.9 ± 20.7 gCO2/MJ), followed by reed canary grass and maize. Jatropha SAF shows the lowest mean DLUC factor (3.6 ± 31.4 gCO2/MJ), followed by miscanthus and switchgrass. The latter feedstocks show potential for reducing GHG emissions over large areas but with relatively greater variability. Country-average DLUC values are higher than accepted ILUC ones for all pathways except for maize. To ensure the GHG benefits of CORSIA, feedstocks must be produced in areas where not only carbon stocks are relatively low but also where attainable yields are sufficiently high. The results help identify locations where the combination of these two factors may be favourable for low-DLUC SAF production. Irrigated miscanthus offers the highest SAF production potential (2.75 EJ globally) if grown on CORSIA-compliant cropland and grassland areas, accounting for ∼1/5 of the total kerosene used in 2019. Quantifying other environmental impacts of SAFs is desirable to understand sustainability trade-offs and financial constraints that may further limit production potentials.

Plant diversity darkspots for global collection priorities

More than 15% of all vascular plant species may remain scientifically undescribed, and many of the > 350 000 described species have no or few geographic records documenting their distribution. Identifying and understanding taxonomic and geographic knowledge shortfalls is key to prioritising future collection and conservation efforts. Using extensive data for 343 523 vascular plant species and time-to-event analyses, we conducted multiple tests related to plant taxonomic and geographic data shortfalls, and identified 33 global diversity darkspots (those 'botanical countries' predicted to contain most undescribed and not yet recorded species). We defined priority regions for future collection according to several socio-economic and environmental scenarios. Most plant diversity darkspots are found within global biodiversity hotspots, with the exception of New Guinea. We identify Colombia, Myanmar, New Guinea, Peru, Philippines and Turkey as global collection priorities under all environmental and socio-economic conditions considered. Our study provides a flexible framework to help accelerate the documentation of global plant diversity for the implementation of conservation actions. As digitisation of the world's herbaria progresses, collection and conservation priorities may soon be identifiable at finer scales.

Mixed effectiveness of global protected areas in resisting habitat loss

Protected areas are the cornerstones of conservation efforts to mitigate the anthropogenic pressures driving biodiversity loss. Nations aim to protect 30% of Earth's land and water by 2030, yet the effectiveness of protected areas remains unclear. Here we analyze the performance of over 160,000 protected areas in resisting habitat loss at different spatial and temporal scales, using high-resolution data. We find that 1.14 million km2 of habitat, equivalent to three times the size of Japan, across 73% of protected areas, had been altered between 2003 and 2019. These protected areas experienced habitat loss due to the expansion of built-up land, cropland, pastureland, or deforestation. Larger and stricter protected areas generally had lower rates of habitat loss. While most protected areas effectively halted the expansion of built-up areas, they were less successful in preventing deforestation and agricultural conversion. Protected areas were 33% more effective in reducing habitat loss compared to unprotected areas, though their ability to mitigate nearby human pressures was limited and varied spatially. Our findings indicate that, beyond establishing new protected areas, there is an urgent need to enhance the effectiveness of existing ones to better prevent habitat loss and achieve the post-2020 global biodiversity goals.

Optimizing restoration: A holistic spatial approach to deliver Nature's Contributions to People with minimal tradeoffs and maximal equity

Ecosystem restoration is inherently a complex activity with inevitable tradeoffs in environmental and societal outcomes. These tradeoffs can potentially be large when policies and practices are focused on single outcomes versus joint achievement of multiple outcomes. Few studies have assessed the tradeoffs in Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and the distributional equity of NCP from forest restoration strategies. Here, we optimized a defined forest restoration area across India with systematic conservation planning to assess the tradeoffs between three NCP: i) climate change mitigation NCP, ii) biodiversity value NCP (habitat created for forest-dependent mammals), and iii) societal NCP (human direct use of restored forests for livelihoods, housing construction material, and energy). We show that restoration plans aimed at a single-NCP tend not to deliver other NCP outcomes efficiently. In contrast, integrated spatial forest restoration plans aimed at achievement of multiple outcomes deliver on average 83.3% (43.2 to 100%) of climate change mitigation NCP, 89.9% (63.8 to 100%) of biodiversity value NCP, and 93.9% (64.5 to 100%) of societal NCP delivered by single-objective plans. Integrated plans deliver NCP more evenly across the restoration area when compared to other plans that identify certain regions such as the Western Ghats and north-eastern India. Last, 38 to 41% of the people impacted by integrated spatial plans belong to socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, greater than their overall representation in India's population. Moving ahead, effective policy design and evaluation integrating ecosystem protection and restoration strategies can benefit from the blueprint we provide in this study for India.

Global patterns of human-wildlife spatial associations and implications for differentiating conservation strategies

Understanding the global patterns of human and wildlife spatial associations is essential for pragmatic conservation implementation, yet analytical foundations and indicator-based assessments that would further this understanding are lacking. We integrated the global distributions of 30,664 terrestrial vertebrates and human pressures to map human-nature index (HNI) categories that indicate the extent and intensity of human-wildlife interactions. Along the 2 dimensions of biodiversity and human activity, the HNI allowed placement of terrestrial areas worldwide in one of 4 HNI categories: anthropic (human-dominated areas), wildlife-dominated (little human influence and rich in wildlife), co-occurring (substantial presence of humans and wildlife), and harsh-environment (limited presence of humans and wildlife) areas. The HNI varied considerably among taxonomic groups, and the leading driver of HNI was global climate patterns. Co-occurring regions were the most prevalent (35.9%), and wildlife-dominated and anthropic regions encompassed 26.45% and 6.50% of land area, respectively. Our results highlight the necessity for customizing conservation strategies to regions based on human-wildlife spatial associations and the distribution of existing protected area networks. Human activity and biodiversity should be integrated for complementary strategies to support conservation toward ambitious and pragmatic 30×30 goals.

Combining camera trap surveys and IUCN range maps to improve knowledge of species distributions

Reliable maps of species distributions are fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range maps are widely recognized as authoritative representations of species' geographic limits, yet they might not always align with actual occurrence data. In recent area of habitat (AOH) maps, areas that are not habitat have been removed from IUCN ranges to reduce commission errors, but their concordance with actual species occurrence also remains untested. We tested concordance between occurrences recorded in camera trap surveys and predicted occurrences from the IUCN and AOH maps for 510 medium- to large-bodied mammalian species in 80 camera trap sampling areas. Across all areas, cameras detected only 39% of species expected to occur based on IUCN ranges and AOH maps; 85% of the IUCN only mismatches occurred within 200 km of range edges. Only 4% of species occurrences were detected by cameras outside IUCN ranges. The probability of mismatches between cameras and the IUCN range was significantly higher for smaller-bodied mammals and habitat specialists in the Neotropics and Indomalaya and in areas with shorter canopy forests. Our findings suggest that range and AOH maps rarely underrepresent areas where species occur, but they may more often overrepresent ranges by including areas where a species may be absent, particularly at range edges. We suggest that combining range maps with data from ground-based biodiversity sensors, such as camera traps, provides a richer knowledge base for conservation mapping and planning.

Systematic nature positive markets

Environmental markets are a rapidly emerging tool to mobilize private funding to incentivize landholders to undertake more sustainable land management. How units of biodiversity in these markets are measured and subsequently traded creates key challenges ecologically and economically because it determines whether environmental markets can deliver net gains in biodiversity and efficiently lower the costs of conservation. We developed and tested a metric for such markets based on the well-established principle of irreplaceability from systematic conservation planning. Irreplaceability as a metric avoids the limitations of like-for-like trading and allows one to capture the multidimensional nature of ecosystems (e.g., habitats, species, ecosystem functioning) and simultaneously achieve cost-effective, land-manager-led investments in conservation. Using an integrated ecological modeling approach, we tested whether using irreplaceability as a metric is more ecologically and economically beneficial than the simpler biodiversity offset metrics typically used in net gain and no-net-loss policies. Using irreplaceability ensured no net loss, or even net gain, of biodiversity depending on the targets chosen. Other metrics did not provide the same assurances and, depending on the flexibility with which biodiversity targets can be achieved, and how they overlap with development pressure, were less efficient. Irreplaceability reduced the costs of offsetting to developers and the costs of ecological restoration to society. Integrating economic data and systematic conservation planning approaches would therefore assure land managers they were being fairly rewarded for the opportunity costs of conservation and transparently incentivize the most ecologically and economically efficient investments in nature recovery.

The human side of biodiversity: coevolution of the human niche, palaeo-synanthropy and ecosystem complexity in the deep human past

Today's biodiversity crisis fundamentally threatens the habitability of the planet, thus ranking among the primary human challenges of our time. Much emphasis is currently placed on the loss of biodiversity in the Anthropocene, yet these debates often portray biodiversity as a purely natural phenomenon without much consideration of its human dimensions and frequently lack long-term vistas. This paper offers a deep-time perspective on the key role of the evolving human niche in ecosystem functioning and biodiversity dynamics. We summarize research on past hunter-gatherer ecosystem contributions and argue that human-environment feedback systems with important biodiversity consequences are probably a recurrent feature of the Late Pleistocene, perhaps with even deeper roots. We update current understandings of the human niche in this light and suggest that the formation of palaeo-synanthropic niches in other animals proffers a powerful model system to investigate recursive interactions of foragers and ecosystems. Archaeology holds important knowledge here and shows that ecosystem contributions vary greatly in relation to different human lifeways, some of which are lost today. We therefore recommend paying more attention to the intricate relationship between biodiversity and cultural diversity, contending that promotion of the former depends on fostering the latter. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

An assessment of the state of conservation planning in Europe

Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Agreeing that maps can disagree: Moving away from map confusion in conservation

Deciding where to implement actions for biodiversity conservation remains challenging for many reasons, including the increase in maps aimed at prioritizing locations for conservation efforts. Although a growing numbers of maps can create the perception of uncertainty and competing science, a shared set of principles underlie many mapping initiatives. We overlaid the priority areas identified by a subset of maps to assess the extent to which they agree. The comparison suggests that when maps are used without understanding their origin, confusion seems justified: The union of all maps covers 73% of the contiguous United States, whereas the intersection of all maps is at least 3.5%. Our findings support the need to place a strong focus on the principles and premises underpinning the maps and the end users' intentions. We recommend developing a science-based guidance to aid scientists, policymakers, and managers in selecting and applying maps for supporting on-the-ground decisions addressing biodiversity loss and its interconnected crises.

Biodiversity modeling advances will improve predictions of nature's contributions to people

Accurate predictions of ecosystem functions and nature's contributions to people (NCP) are needed to prioritize environmental protection and restoration in the Anthropocene. However, our ability to predict NCP is undermined by approaches that rely on biophysical variables and ignore those describing biodiversity, which have strong links to NCP. To foster predictive mapping of NCP, we should harness the latest methods in biodiversity modeling. This field advances rapidly, and new techniques with promising applications for predicting NCP are still underutilized. Here, we argue that employing recent advances in biodiversity modeling can enhance the accuracy and scope of NCP maps and predictions. This enhancement will contribute significantly to the achievement of global objectives to preserve NCP, for both the present and an unpredictable future.

Global multifaceted biodiversity patterns, centers, and conservation needs in angiosperms

The Convention on Biological Diversity seeks to conserve at least 30% of global land and water areas by 2030, which is a challenge but also an opportunity to better preserve biodiversity, including flowering plants (angiosperms). Herein, we compiled a large database on distributions of over 300,000 angiosperm species and the key functional traits of 67,024 species. Using this database, we constructed biodiversity-environment models to predict global patterns of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity in terrestrial angiosperms and provide a comprehensive mapping of the three diversity facets. We further evaluated the current protection status of the biodiversity centers of these diversity facets. Our results showed that geographical patterns of the three facets of plant diversity exhibited substantial spatial mismatches and nonoverlapping conservation priorities. Idiosyncratic centers of functional diversity, particularly of herbaceous species, were primarily distributed in temperate regions and under weaker protection compared with other biodiversity centers of taxonomic and phylogenetic facets. Our global assessment of multifaceted biodiversity patterns and centers highlights the insufficiency and unbalanced conservation among the three diversity facets and the two growth forms (woody vs. herbaceous), thus providing directions for guiding the future conservation of global plant diversity.

Transnational conservation to anticipate future plant shifts in Europe

To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps' flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders.

Over 1/4 of China's terrestrial area significantly contributed both to biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality, requiring protection

Protected areas (PAs) play a crucial role in halting biodiversity loss and mitigating climate change. However, research on the advantages of integrating biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation within PAs remains limited, and there is a deficiency in holistic, scientifically supported management strategies. To address these gaps, we conducted a case study in China, comparing the conservation effectiveness of designating conservation priorities considering either single or multiple objectives, including biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality. The results showed that integrating multiple values could truly increase the effectiveness of PAs compared to a single value considered. Over 1/4 of China's terrestrial area had a significant contribution for both biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality, yet remained unprotected. Expanding PAs in these areas holds tremendous win-win biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality opportunity. We delineated different conservation priorities for comprehensive management and outlined strategies for different types of areas. The framework presented in this study can serve as a reference for other places with comparable scales or management objectives.

A global clustering of terrestrial food production systems

Food production is at the heart of global sustainability challenges, with unsustainable practices being a major driver of biodiversity loss, emissions and land degradation. The concept of foodscapes, defined as the characteristics of food production along biophysical and socio-economic gradients, could be a way addressing those challenges. By identifying homologues foodscapes classes possible interventions and leverage points for more sustainable agriculture could be identified. Here we provide a globally consistent approximation of the world's foodscape classes. We integrate global data on biophysical and socio-economic factors to identify a minimum set of emergent clusters and evaluate their characteristics, vulnerabilities and risks with regards to global change factors. Overall, we find food production globally to be highly concentrated in a few areas. Worryingly, we find particularly intensively cultivated or irrigated foodscape classes to be under considerable climatic and degradation risks. Our work can serve as baseline for global-scale zoning and gap analyses, while also revealing homologous areas for possible agricultural interventions.

The global distribution of plants used by humans

Plants sustain human life. Understanding geographic patterns of the diversity of species used by people is thus essential for the sustainable management of plant resources. Here, we investigate the global distribution of 35,687 utilized plant species spanning 10 use categories (e.g., food, medicine, material). Our findings indicate general concordance between utilized and total plant diversity, supporting the potential for simultaneously conserving species diversity and its contributions to people. Although Indigenous lands across Mesoamerica, the Horn of Africa, and Southern Asia harbor a disproportionate diversity of utilized plants, the incidence of protected areas is negatively correlated with utilized species richness. Finding mechanisms to preserve areas containing concentrations of utilized plants and traditional knowledge must become a priority for the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

Mapping the planet's critical areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people

Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature's contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature's contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature's contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.

Are debt-for-nature swaps scalable: Which nature, how much debt, and who pays?

With the ongoing sovereign debt and biodiversity crises in many emerging economies, applications of debt-for-nature swaps as a dual solution for sovereign debt and nature conservation have been re-emerging. We analyze how debt-for-nature swaps (DNS) can be scaled to protect biodiversity priority areas and reduce debt burden. We build a dataset for biodiversity conservation and debt restructuring in 67 countries at risk of sovereign debt distress and show that they hold over 22% of global biodiversity priority areas, 82.96% of which are unprotected. Furthermore, we show that for 35 of the 67 countries, using conservative cost estimates, 100% of unprotected biodiversity priority areas could be protected for a fraction of debt; for the remaining countries, applying DNS would allow the protection of 11-13% of currently unprotected biodiversity priority areas. By applying interdisciplinary research combining fundamental biodiversity and economic data and methods merging, the research contributes methodologically and practically to the understanding of debt-for-nature swaps for emerging economies.

The use of sentinel-2 imagery to generate vegetations maps for the Northern Antarctic peninsula and offshore islands

We used Sentinel-2 imagery time series to generate a vegetation map for the Northern part of the Antarctica Peninsula and offshore islands, including the South Shetlands. The vegetation cover was identified in the NDVI maximum value composite image. The NDVI values were associated with the occurrence of algae (0.15 - 0.20), lichens (0.20 - 0.50), and mosses (0.50 - 0.80). The vegetation cover distribution map was validated using the literature information. Generating a vegetation map distribution on an annual basis was not possible due to high cloud cover in the Antarctic region, especially in coastal áreas, so optical images from 2016 to 2021 were necessary to map the vegetation distribution in the entire study área. The final map analyzed in association with the weather data shows the occurrence of a microenvironment over the western islands of the Antarctic Peninsula that provided vegetation growth conditions. The Sentinel-2 images with 10m spatial resolution allow the assembly of accurate vegetation distribution maps for the Antarctica Peninsula and Islands, the Google Earth Engine cloud computing being essential to process a large amount of the satellite images necessary for processing these maps.

Co-occurrence of biodiversity, carbon storage, coastal protection, and fish and invertebrate production to inform global mangrove conservation planning

Mangrove forests support unique biodiversity and provide a suite of ecosystem services (ES) that benefit people. Decades of continual mangrove loss and degradation have necessitated global efforts to protect and restore this important ecosystem. Generating and evaluating asset maps of biodiversity and ES is an important precursor to identifying locations that can deliver conservation outcomes across varying scales, such as maximising the co-occurrence of specific ES. We bring together global datasets on mangrove-affiliated biodiversity, carbon stocks, fish and invertebrate production, and coastal protection to provide insight into potential trade-offs, synergies and opportunities from mangrove conservation. We map opportunities where high ES provision co-occurs with these areas that could be leveraged in conservation planning, and identify potential high-value opportunities for single ES that might otherwise be missed with a biodiversity focus. Hotspots of single ES, co-occurrence of multiple ES, and opportunities to simultaneously leverage biodiversity and ES occurred throughout the world. For example, efforts that focus on conserving or restoring mangroves to store carbon can be targed to deliver multiple ES benefits. Some nations, such as Vietnam, Oman, Ecuador and China, showed consistent (although not necessarily strong) correlations between ES pairs. A lack of clear or consistent spatial trends elsewhere suggests that some nations will likely benefit more from complementarity-based approaches that focus on multiple sites with high provision of different services. Individual sites within these nations, however, such as Laguna de Terminos in Mexico still provide valuable opportunities to leverage co-benefits. Ensuring that an ES focused approach is complemented by strategic spatial planning is a priority, and our analyses provide a precursor towards decisions about where and how to invest.

Costs and benefits of protecting linear landscape elements: Applying systematic conservation planning on a case study in the Netherlands

Protecting and increasing linear landscape elements (LLEs) in agricultural lands is regarded as a possible solution for a transition to a more biodiverse agricultural system. However, optimizing the spatial configuration of LLEs protected areas is challenging, especially given the demand for land for food production. Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) can address this challenge, by prioritizing cost-efficient protection areas. We used a SCP approach to look at the LLEs network in the Province of Noord-Brabant in the Netherlands, identifying the possible trade-off between optimizing species conservation, costs and the monetary values of ecosystem services (ES). For this we defined two scenarios. One scenario focuses on achieving species conservation targets at the minimum cost, and the other focuses on achieving targets while maximizing the benefits provided by ES. For each scenario, we further developed two land-management options, namely land-sharing and land-sparing. For each solution, we tested their cost-effectiveness by calculating implementation costs, economic benefits provided by ES, and cost/benefit ratios. First, our scenario analysis indicates that the economic benefits provided by ES always outweigh the implementation costs. Second, it shows that including ES as co-benefits in SCP (Maximize ES Scenario) yields more cost-efficient conservation solutions. Third, both land-sharing and land-sparing are possible cost-efficient approaches to achieve conservation targets. Our results are spatially explicit and identify crucial habitat areas for the conservation of the selected species, which represent 12-20% of the current unprotected network of LLEs. Our findings showcase net economic benefit of conserving species and LLEs, thus representing an additional reason for biodiversity conservation.

Relocating built-up land for biodiversity conservation in an uncertain future

Land use changes associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation exert profoundly detrimental impacts on biodiversity conservation. Urban development is one of the prevailing anthropogenic disturbances to wildlife habitat, because these developments are often considered permanent and irreversible. As a result, the potential benefits of built-up land relocation for biodiversity conservation have remained largely unexplored in environmental management practices. Here, we analyze recent built-up land relocation in Shanghai and explore how such restoration programs can affect future land change trajectories with regards to biodiversity conservation. Results show that 187.78 km2 built-up land in Shanghai was restored to natural habitat between 2017 and 2020. Further simulation analysis highlights that relocating built-up land can substantially promote conserve biodiversity. In particular, there would be less habitat loss, better natural habitat quality and more species habitat-suitable range under the scenarios with built-up land relocation. Species extinction assessment suggest that amphibians, mammals, and reptiles will all have an increasingly high extinction risk without built-up land relocation. However, there will even be a marginal decrease in extinction risk over time for mammals and reptiles if the relocation of built-up land is permitted, but still a moderate increase in extinction risk for amphibians. This study highlights the importance of incorporating rigorous conservation planning prior to development activities, thereby underpinning a sustainable approach to environmental management.

Role of data uncertainty when identifying important areas for biodiversity and carbon in boreal forests

Forest conservation plays a central role in meeting national and international biodiversity and climate targets. Biodiversity and carbon values within forests are often estimated with models, introducing uncertainty to decision making on which forest stands to protect. Here, we explore how uncertainties in forest variable estimates affect modelled biodiversity and carbon patterns, and how this in turn introduces variability in the selection of new protected areas. We find that both biodiversity and carbon patterns were sensitive to alterations in forest attributes. Uncertainty in features that were rare and/or had dissimilar distributions with other features introduced most variation to conservation plans. The most critical data uncertainty also depended on what fraction of the landscape was being protected. Forests of highest conservation value were more robust to data uncertainties than forests of lesser conservation value. Identifying critical sources of model uncertainty helps to effectively reduce errors in conservation decisions.

Avoiding an unjust transition to sustainability: An equity metric for spatial conservation planning

The need for rapid and ambitious conservation and restoration is widely acknowledged, yet concern exists that the widespread reallocation of land to nature would disproportionately affect the world's poor. Conservation and restoration may limit nutrition and livelihood options and thus negatively affect social development objectives. Although much research looks into global-scale scenarios and planning of conservation and restoration, spatial evaluations of these trade-offs in terms of equity remain limited. We fill this gap by identifying areas where conservation or restoration under different future scenarios and prioritization maps expand nature into landscapes that likely support land-dependent communities in their local food security. By contrasting the expansion of nature into areas supporting land-dependent communities vs. places where the food system is supported by regional to global markets, we highlight the need for disaggregated indicators that reflect the diversity of human land-use needs in order to identify more equitable pathways. Conservation prioritizations were found to result in more equitable land-use outcomes than the land-use outcomes of widely used socioeconomic scenarios. Accounting for differentiated social impacts in model-based conservation and restoration planning and global scale scenario assessment can help achieve a more inclusive transition to sustainability as well as reduce barriers to meaningful change.

Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon

Current large-scale patterns of land use reflect history, local traditions, and production costs, much more so than they reflect biophysical potential or global supply and demand for food and freshwater, or-more recently-climate change mitigation. We quantified alternative land-use allocations that consider trade-offs for these demands by combining a dynamic vegetation model and an optimization algorithm to determine Pareto-optimal land-use allocations under changing climate conditions in 2090-2099 and alternatively in 2033-2042. These form the outer bounds of the option space for global land-use transformation. Results show a potential to increase all three indicators (+83% in crop production, +8% in available runoff, and +3% in carbon storage globally) compared to the current land-use configuration, with clear land-use priority areas: Tropical and boreal forests were preserved, crops were produced in temperate regions, and pastures were preferentially allocated in semiarid grasslands and savannas. Transformations toward optimal land-use patterns would imply extensive reconfigurations and changes in land management, but the required annual land-use changes were nevertheless of similar magnitude as those suggested by established land-use change scenarios. The optimization results clearly show that large benefits could be achieved when land use is reconsidered under a "global supply" perspective with a regional focus that differs across the world's regions in order to achieve the supply of key ecosystem services under the emerging global pressures.

Spatial-temporal dynamics of land use carbon emissions and drivers in 20 urban agglomerations in China from 1990 to 2019

Urban agglomerations (UAs) are the largest carbon emitters; thus, the emissions must be controlled to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. We use long time series land-use and energy consumption data to estimate the carbon emissions in UAs. The standard deviational ellipse (SDE) and spatial autocorrelation analysis are used to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions, and the geodetector, geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), and boosted regression trees (BRTs) are used to analyze the driving factors. The results show the following: (1) Construction land and forest land are the main carbon sources and sinks, accounting for 93% and 94% of the total carbon sources and sinks, respectively. (2) The total carbon emissions of different UAs differ substantially, showing a spatial pattern of high emissions in the east and north and low emissions in the west and south. The carbon emissions of all UAs increase over time, with faster growth in UAs with lower carbon emissions. (3) The center of gravity of carbon emissions shifts to the south (except for North China, where it shifts to the west), and carbon emissions in UAs show a positive spatial correlation, with a predominantly high-high and low-low spatial aggregation pattern. (4) Population, GDP, and the annual number of cabs are the main factors influencing carbon emissions in most UAs, whereas other factors show significant differences. Most exhibit an increasing trend over time in their impact on carbon emissions. In general, China still faces substantial challenges in achieving the dual carbon goal. The carbon control measures of different UAs should be targeted in terms of energy utilization, green and low-carbon production, and consumption modes to achieve the low-carbon and green development goals of the United Nations' sustainable cities and beautiful China's urban construction as soon as possible.

The neglected role of abandoned cropland in supporting both food security and climate change mitigation

Despite the looming land scarcity for agriculture, cropland abandonment is widespread globally. Abandoned cropland can be reused to support food security and climate change mitigation. Here, we investigate the potentials and trade-offs of using global abandoned cropland for recultivation and restoring forests by natural regrowth, with spatially-explicit modelling and scenario analysis. We identify 101 Mha of abandoned cropland between 1992 and 2020, with a capability of concurrently delivering 29 to 363 Peta-calories yr-1 of food production potential and 290 to 1,066 MtCO2 yr-1 of net climate change mitigation potential, depending on land-use suitability and land allocation strategies. We also show that applying spatial prioritization is key to maximizing the achievable potentials of abandoned cropland and demonstrate other possible approaches to further increase these potentials. Our findings offer timely insights into the potentials of abandoned cropland and can inform sustainable land management to buttress food security and climate goals.

Priority areas to protect mangroves and maximise ecosystem services

Anthropogenic activities threaten global biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, area-based conservation efforts typically target biodiversity protection whilst minimising conflict with economic activities, failing to consider ecosystem services. Here we identify priority areas that maximise both the protection of mangrove biodiversity and their ecosystem services. We reveal that despite 13.5% of the mangrove distribution being currently strictly protected, all mangrove species are not adequately represented and many areas that provide disproportionally large ecosystem services are missed. Optimising the placement of future conservation efforts to protect 30% of global mangroves potentially safeguards an additional 16.3 billion USD of coastal property value, 6.1 million people, 1173.1 Tg C, and 50.7 million fisher days yr-1. Our findings suggest that there is a pressing need for including ecosystem services in protected area design and that strategic prioritisation and coordination of mangrove conservation could provide substantial benefits to human wellbeing.

Tropical dry woodland loss occurs disproportionately in areas of highest conservation value

Tropical and subtropical dry woodlands are rich in biodiversity and carbon. Yet, many of these woodlands are under high deforestation pressure and remain weakly protected. Here, we assessed how deforestation dynamics relate to areas of woodland protection and to conservation priorities across the world's tropical dry woodlands. Specifically, we characterized different types of deforestation frontier from 2000 to 2020 and compared them to protected areas (PAs), Indigenous Peoples' lands and conservation areas for biodiversity, carbon and water. We found that global conservation priorities were always overrepresented in tropical dry woodlands compared to the rest of the globe (between 4% and 96% more than expected, depending on the type of conservation priority). Moreover, about 41% of all dry woodlands were characterized as deforestation frontiers, and these frontiers have been falling disproportionately in areas with important regional (i.e. tropical dry woodland) conservation assets. While deforestation frontiers were identified within all tropical dry woodland classes of woodland protection, they were lower than the average within protected areas coinciding with Indigenous Peoples' lands (23%), and within other PAs (28%). However, within PAs, deforestation frontiers have also been disproportionately affecting regional conservation assets. Many emerging deforestation frontiers were identified outside but close to PAs, highlighting a growing threat that the conserved areas of dry woodland will become isolated. Understanding how deforestation frontiers coincide with major types of current woodland protection can help target context-specific conservation policies and interventions to tropical dry woodland conservation assets (e.g. PAs in which deforestation is rampant require stronger enforcement, inactive deforestation frontiers could benefit from restoration). Our analyses also identify recurring patterns that can be used to test the transferability of governance approaches and promote learning across social-ecological contexts.

A telemetry study shows that an endangered nocturnal avian species roosts in extremely dry habitats to avoid predation

Describing animal space use is essential for understanding their ecological needs and for planning effective conservation schemes. Notably, certain biomes and life histories are understudied due to methodological challenges in tracking animals in their natural habitats. Specifically, both arid environments and nocturnal species are not sufficiently researched compared to diurnal species and to other biomes. This knowledge gap hinders our ability to properly prioritize habitats for species protection in areas undergoing human-related development. Here, we investigate the movement ecology of the Egyptian Nightjar (Caprimulgus aegyptius) in the arid Dead-sea region of Israel, the Palestinian Authority (the West Bank) and Jordan. This nocturnal insectivore is a cryptic desert-dweller and was considered locally extinct until it was rediscovered in 2016. For this work we tracked twelve individuals using GPS tags to determine how this resource-poor environment affects their home range, (predicting large areas), habitat use, and day-roost ecology. We found that the tracked Egyptian Nightjars had a much larger home range area than other Nightjar species, commuting nightly between foraging grounds and day-roosts. We found, as expected, intensive foraging activity at agricultural fields, where artificial irrigation likely supports higher resource (insect) density. Additionally, we found that individuals showed very high roosting site fidelity, often returning to the same specific site, located in extremely dry and exposed habitats, presumably for predator avoidance. This finding highlights the ecological value of these barren habitats that are often considered "lifeless" and therefore of lower priority for conservation. Consequently, our research demonstrates the importance of describing the space-use of nocturnal animals in arid habitats for conservation efforts.

Climate co-benefits of tiger conservation

Biodiversity conservation is increasingly being recognized as an important co-benefit in climate change mitigation programmes that use nature-based climate solutions. However, the climate co-benefits of biodiversity conservation interventions, such as habitat protection and restoration, remain understudied. Here we estimate the forest carbon storage co-benefits of a national policy intervention for tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation in India. We used a synthetic control approach to model avoided forest loss and associated carbon emissions reductions in protected areas that underwent enhanced protection for tiger conservation. Over a third of the analysed reserves showed significant but mixed effects, where 24% of all reserves successfully reduced the rate of deforestation and the remaining 9% reported higher-than-expected forest loss. The policy had a net positive benefit with over 5,802 hectares of averted forest loss, corresponding to avoided emissions of 1.08 ± 0.51 MtCO2 equivalent between 2007 and 2020. This translated to US$92.55 ± 43.56 million in ecosystem services from the avoided social cost of emissions and potential revenue of US$6.24 ± 2.94 million in carbon offsets. Our findings offer an approach to quantitatively track the carbon sequestration co-benefits of a species conservation strategy and thus help align the objectives of climate action and biodiversity conservation.

Do Southeast Asia's paleo-Antarctic trees cool the planet?

Many tree genera in the Malesian uplands have Southern Hemisphere origins, often supported by austral fossil records. Weathering the vast bedrock exposures in the everwet Malesian tropics may have consumed sufficient atmospheric CO₂ to contribute significantly to global cooling over the past 15 Myr. However, there has been no discussion of how the distinctive regional tree assemblages may have enhanced weathering and contributed to this process. We postulate that Gondwanan-sourced tree lineages that can dominate higher-elevation forests played an overlooked role in the Neogene CO₂ drawdown that led to the Ice Ages and the current, now-precarious climate state. Moreover, several historically abundant conifers in Araucariaceae and Podocarpaceae are likely to have made an outsized contribution through soil acidification that increases weathering. If the widespread destruction of Malesian lowland forests continues to spread into the uplands, the losses will threaten unique austral plant assemblages and, if our hypothesis is correct, a carbon sequestration engine that could contribute to cooler planetary conditions far into the future. Immediate effects include the spread of heat islands, significant losses of biomass carbon and forest-dependent biodiversity, erosion of watershed values, and the destruction of tens of millions of years of evolutionary history.

Broadening the focus of forest conservation beyond carbon

Two concurrent trends are contributing towards a much broader view of forest conservation. First, the appreciation of the role of forests as a nature-based climate solution has grown rapidly, particularly among governments and the private sector. Second, the spatiotemporal resolution of forest mapping and the ease of tracking forest changes have dramatically improved. As a result, who does and who pays for forest conservation is changing: sectors and people previously considered separate from forest conservation now play an important role and need to be held accountable and motivated or forced to conserve forests. This change requires, and has stimulated, a broader range of forest conservation solutions. The need to assess the outcomes of conservation interventions has motivated the development and application of sophisticated econometric analyses, enabled by high resolution satellite data. At the same time, the focus on climate, together with the nature of available data and evaluation methods, has worked against a more comprehensive view of forest conservation. Instead, it has encouraged a focus on trees as carbon stores, often leaving out other important goals of forest conservation, such as biodiversity and human wellbeing. Even though both are intrinsically connected to climate outcomes, these areas have not kept pace with the scale and diversification of forest conservation. Finding synergies between these 'co-benefits', which play out on a local scale, with the carbon objective, related to the global amount of forests, is a major challenge and area for future advances in forest conservation.

Gaps and weaknesses in the global protected area network for safeguarding at-risk species

Protected areas are essential to biodiversity conservation. Creating new parks can protect larger populations and more species, yet strengthening existing parks, particularly those vulnerable to harmful human activities, is a critical but underappreciated step for safeguarding at-risk species. Here, we model the area of habitat that terrestrial mammals, amphibians, and birds have within park networks and their vulnerability to current downgrading, downsizing, or degazettement events and future land-use change. We find that roughly 70% of species analyzed have scant representation in parks, or occur within parks that are affected by shifts in formal legal protections or are vulnerable to increased human pressures. Our results also show that expanding and strengthening park networks across just 1% of the world's land area could preserve irreplaceable habitats of 1191 species that are particularly vulnerable to extinction.

The effectiveness of global protected areas for climate change mitigation

Forests play a critical role in stabilizing Earth's climate. Establishing protected areas (PAs) represents one approach to forest conservation, but PAs were rarely created to mitigate climate change. The global impact of PAs on the carbon cycle has not previously been quantified due to a lack of accurate global-scale carbon stock maps. Here we used ~412 million lidar samples from NASA's GEDI mission to estimate a total PA aboveground carbon (C) stock of 61.43 Gt (+/- 0.31), 26% of all mapped terrestrial woody C. Of this total, 9.65 + /- 0.88 Gt of additional carbon was attributed to PA status. These higher C stocks are primarily from avoided emissions from deforestation and degradation in PAs compared to unprotected forests. This total is roughly equivalent to one year of annual global fossil fuel emissions. These results underscore the importance of conservation of high biomass forests for avoiding carbon emissions and preserving future sequestration.

Retaining natural vegetation to safeguard biodiversity and humanity

Global efforts to deliver internationally agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services have been poorly integrated. These goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g., native, largely unmodified) and seminatural (e.g., low intensity or sustainable human use) forests, woodlands, and grasslands. To show how to unify these goals, we empirically derived spatially explicit, quantitative, area-based targets for the retention of natural and seminatural (e.g., native) terrestrial vegetation worldwide. We used a 250-m-resolution map of natural and seminatural vegetation cover and, from this, selected areas identified under different international agreements as being important for achieving global biodiversity, carbon, soil, and water targets. At least 67 million km² of Earth's terrestrial vegetation (∼79% of the area of vegetation remaining) required retention to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil, and freshwater conservation objectives under 4 United Nations' resolutions. This equates to retaining natural and seminatural vegetation across at least 50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Retention efforts could contribute to multiple goals simultaneously, especially where natural and seminatural vegetation can be managed to achieve cobenefits for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem service provision. Such management can and should co-occur and be driven by people who live in and rely on places where natural and sustainably managed vegetation remains in situ and must be complemented by restoration and appropriate management of more human-modified environments if global goals are to be realized.

Ongoing over-exploitation and delayed responses to environmental change highlight the urgency for action to promote vertebrate recoveries by 2030

To safeguard nature, we must understand the drivers of biodiversity loss. Time-delayed biodiversity responses to environmental changes (ecological lags) are often absent from models of biodiversity change, despite their well-documented existence. We quantify how lagged responses to climate and land-use change have influenced mammal and bird populations around the world, while incorporating effects of direct exploitation and conservation interventions. Ecological lag duration varies between drivers, vertebrate classes and body size groupings-e.g. lags linked to climate-change impacts are 13 years for small birds, rising to 40 years for larger species. Past warming and land conversion generally combine to predict population declines; however, such conditions are associated with population increases for small mammals. Positive effects of management (>+4% annually for large mammals) and protected areas (>+6% annually for large birds) on population trends contrast with the negative impact of exploitation (<-7% annually for birds), highlighting the need to promote sustainable use. Model projections suggest a future with winners (e.g. large birds) and losers (e.g. medium-sized birds), with current/recent environmental change substantially influencing abundance trends to 2050. Without urgent action, including effective conservation interventions and promoting sustainable use, ambitious targets to stop declines by 2030 may already be slipping out of reach.

Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean "scapes." We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature's contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.

Public authorities for transformative change: integration principle in public funding

Although science widely supports moving towards transformative change through integrating biodiversity into decision-making, and arguing for the essential role of public authorities, it falls short on suggesting specific means to that end. This article considers the EU's approach to fostering the green transition as part of its post-pandemic recovery while exploring how the integration of biodiversity considerations could be integrated into decision-making. The rationale and implementation of the EU's do no harm principle is examined, which functioned as a condition for public funds. The analysis shows the mentioned EU policy innovation has a very limited impact. The role of do no harm has been limited to validating, rather than initiating policy measures. It has failed to influence the design of measures such that they would benefit biodiversity and not encouraged synergies between the climate and biodiversity goals. Based on the experience with do no harm as well as the more focussed regulatory action directed at the goal of climate neutrality, the article lists key steps for fostering biodiversity integration in policy planning and policy implementation. These steps encompass substantive and procedural approaches and aim for deliberation, target-setting, tracking, verification and screening. There is considerable scope for robust regulation to play a role in support of the biodiversity goals alongside transformative bottom-up initiatives.