Explaining recent mortality trends among younger and middle-aged White Americans

Institutional Failures as Structural Determinants of Suicide: The Opioid Epidemic and the Great Recession in the United States

We investigate recent trends in U.S. suicide mortality using a "structural determinants of health" framework. We access restricted-use multiple cause of death files to track suicide rates among U.S. Black, White, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Latino/a men and women between 1990 and 2017. We examine suicide deaths separately by poisonings and nonpoisonings to illustrate that (1) women's suicide rates from poisonings track strongly with increases in prescription drug availability and (2) nonpoisoning suicide rates among all adult Americans track strongly with worsening economic conditions coinciding with the financial crash and Great Recession. These findings suggest that institutional failures elevated U.S. suicide risk between 1990 and 2017 by increasing access to more lethal means of self-harm and by increasing both exposure and vulnerability to economic downturns. Together, these results support calls to scale up to focus on the structural determinants of U.S. suicide.

Age, period, and cohort trends of substance poisoning, alcohol-related disease, and suicide deaths in Australia, 1980-2019

PURPOSE

Deaths due to substance poisoning, alcohol-related disease, and suicide pose a critical public health issue, and have been categorized as "deaths of despair" in the US. Whether these deaths represent a distinct phenomenon requires exploration, particularly in other countries.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study examines age-period-cohort trends of (combined and cause-specific) substance poisoning, alcohol-related disease, and suicide deaths among Australians aged ≥15-years that occurred between 1980 and 2019 and compares trends between males and females.

RESULTS

Combined mortality rates were initially (1980-1999) relatively stable, reflecting a reduction in alcohol-related disease deaths offset by an increase in substance poisoning deaths. A decline (2000-2006) and subsequent increase (2007-2019) in combined rates were primarily attributable to corresponding changes in both substance poisoning and suicide deaths among males. Distinct age-period-cohort trends were observed between cause of death sub-types, with net drifts: increasing for male (net drift [95% CI]: 3.33 [2.84, 3.83]) and female (2.58 [2.18, 2.98]) substance poisoning deaths; decreasing among male alcohol-related disease (- 1.46 [- 1.75, - 1.16]) and suicide deaths (- 0.52[- 0.69, - 0.36]); and remaining relatively stable for female alcohol-related disease (- 0.28 [- 0.66, 0.09]) and suicide deaths (- 0.25 [- 0.52, 0.01]).

CONCLUSIONS

Although combined age-specific trends were relatively stable over the study period, different and distinct patterns were observed within cause-specific deaths, challenging the notion that these causes of death represent a distinct epidemiological phenomenon. These data indicate a critical need to review the appropriateness of guidance for clinical practice, prevention strategies, and policy initiatives aimed at preventing future deaths.

Cohort Differences in Physical Health and Disability in the United States and Europe

OBJECTIVES

Declines in mortality have historically been associated with improvements in physical health across generations. While life expectancy in most high-income countries continues to increase, there is evidence that younger generations, particularly in the United States, are less healthy than previous generations at the same age. We compared generational trends in physical health in the United States, England, and continental Europe to explore whether other regions have experienced a similar pattern of worsening health across cohorts.

METHODS

Using data from nationally representative studies of adults aged ≥50 years from the United States (Health and Retirement Study, n = 26,939), England (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, n = 14,992) and 11 continental European countries (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, n = 72,595), we estimated differences in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported chronic disease and disability and observer-measured health indicators across pseudo-birth cohorts (born <1925, 1925-1935, 1936-1945, 1946-1954, 1955-1959).

RESULTS

Age-adjusted prevalence of doctor-diagnosed chronic disease increased across successive cohorts in all regions. Trends in disability prevalence were more regionally varied. Still, in both the United States and Europe, we observed a structural break in disability trends, with declines observed in prewar cohorts slowing, stalling, or reversing for cohorts born since 1945.

DISCUSSION

In all regions, we found evidence for worsening health across cohorts, particularly for those born since 1945. While more chronic disease in younger cohorts need not necessarily translate to worse quality of life or higher rates of functional limitation, there is some suggestion that worsening chronic disease morbidity may be spilling over into worsening disability.

Polygenic risk, childhood abuse and gene x environment interactions with depression development from middle to late adulthood: A U.S. national life-course study

OBJECTIVE

Utilizing national longitudinal data, this study examines how polygenic depression risk and childhood abuse interactively influence the life-course development of depressive conditions from middle to late adulthood.

METHOD

Data from 7512 participants (4323 females and 3189 males) of European ancestry aged 51-90, retrieved from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (1992-2020), were analyzed. Childhood physical abuse and polygenic depression score were the primary predictors. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (CESD) scale, and clinical depression risk was a binary indicator. Growth-curve linear mixed and logit mixed-effects models were conducted for analysis.

RESULTS

Increasing polygenic depression scores were associated with elevated CES-D levels and potential risks of clinical depression. Males experienced more detrimental effects of childhood abuse on depression development from ages 51 to 90 years. In contract, non-maltreated females generally exhibited higher depressive symptoms and clinical depression risk than males. A significant interactive effect was found between polygenic depression risk and childhood abuse among males. Higher depression levels and clinical risk were observed with increasing polygenic depression score among maltreated males, surpassing those of females with standardized polygenic score ≥0 from age 51 to 90 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The interaction between childhood abuse and genetic factors significantly shaped lifelong depression trajectories in males, while the negative impact of abusive parenting remained constant regardless of polygenic depression risk among females. Individualized prevention and intervention strategies could be crucial in mitigating lifelong depression development, especially for high-genetic-risk males with a history of childhood physical abuse.

Educational inequalities in deaths of despair in 14 OECD countries: a cross-sectional observational study

BACKGROUND

Deaths of despair are a key contributor to stagnating life expectancy in the USA, especially among those without a university-level education, but these findings have not been compared internationally.

METHODS

Mortality and person-year population exposure data were collected in 14 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries and stratified by age, sex, educational attainment and cause of death. The sample included 1.4 billion person-year observations from persons aged ≥25 years between 2013 and 2019. Country-specific and sex-specific contributions of deaths of despair to: (a) the life expectancy gap at age 25 and (b) rate differences in age-standardised mortality rates between high and low educational attainment groups were calculated.

RESULTS

Eliminating deaths of despair could reduce the life expectancy gap in the USA by 1.1 years for men and 0.6 years for women was second only to Korea, where it would reduce the gap by 3.4 years for men and 2.2 years for women. In Italy, Spain and Türkiye, eliminating deaths of despair would improve life expectancy gains by less than 0.1 years for women and 0.3 years for men, closing the educational gap by <1%. Findings were robust to controls for differences in population structures.

CONCLUSIONS

Deaths of despair are a major determinant of educational inequalities in longevity in Korea and the USA, while having limited impact in Southern European countries, indicating substantial international variation and scope for improvement in high burden high-income countries.

Elite class self-interest, socioeconomic inequality and U.S. population health

Class-based perspectives on the persistent social gradients in health within modern welfare states largely focus on the adverse consequences of unfettered neoliberalism and entrenched meritocratic socioeconomic selection. Namely, neoliberal-driven economic inequality has fuelled resentment and stress among lower-status groups, while these groups have become more homogeneous with regard to health behaviours and outcomes. We synthesise several sociological and historical literatures to argue that, in addition to these class-based explanations, socioeconomic inequality may contribute to persistent social gradients in health due to elite class self-interest-in particular elites' preferences for overdiagnosis, overprescription and costly high-technology medical treatments over disease prevention, and for increased tolerance for regulatory capture. We demonstrate that this self-interest provides parsimonious explanations for several contemporary trends in U.S. health inequality including (A) supply-side factors in drug-related deaths, (B) longitudinal trends in the social gradients of obesity and chronic disease mortality and (C) the immigrant health advantage. We conclude that sociological theories of elite class self-interest usefully complement theories of the psychosocial effects of neoliberalism and of meritocratic social selection while answering recent calls for research on the role advantaged groups play in generating inequalities in health, and for research that moves beyond technological determinism in health sociology.

Daily exposure to stressors, daily perceived severity of stress, and mortality risk among US adults

Prior studies of perceived stress and mortality have yielded mixed results, but most are based on one-time measurements of perceived stress. We use daily diary data from the Midlife in the United States study to measure exposure to stressors and perceived severity of stress and investigate their associations with mortality. We also explore whether the associations vary by age and assess whether the associations are stronger for extrinsic than intrinsic mortality, which is more likely to be aging-related. The analysis included 4,756 observations for 2,915 respondents aged 21-95 who participated in at least one of three waves (1996-97, 2004-09, 2017-19) of the National Study of Daily Experiences. Participants reported daily stressors and perceived severity on 8 consecutive evenings at each wave. Mortality was followed through December 31, 2021. In fully-adjusted models, daily exposure to stressors was associated with mortality, but only at younger ages (HR = 1.20 per SD at age 50, 95% CI: 1.01‒1.42). The association was slightly stronger for extrinsic (HR = 1.31 per SD at age 50, 95% CI: 1.01‒1.69) than for intrinsic mortality, which was not significant (HR = 1.24 per SD at age 50, 95% CI: 0.98‒1.56). When we used an alternative measure of daily perceived severity of stress, the demographic-adjusted association appeared to be similar in magnitude, but after careful adjustment for potential confounding with health status, the association weakened and was no longer statistically significant (HR = 1.17 per SD at age 50, 95% CI: 0.99-1.37). Perceived severity was not significantly associated with either extrinsic or intrinsic mortality even at age 50. Most Americans die at older ages, where stress exposure does not appear to be significantly associated with mortality. Nonetheless, our results suggest that stress exposure is more strongly associated with midlife mortality, which has an undue influence on overall life expectancy.

County-level factors associated with a mismatch between opioid overdose mortality and availability of opioid treatment facilities

BACKGROUND

Opioid overdose deaths in the United States remain a major public health crisis. Little is known about counties with high rates of opioid overdose mortality but low availability of opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment facilities. We sought to identify characteristics of United States (US) counties with high rates of opioid overdose mortality and low rates of opioid treatment facilities.

METHODS

Rates of overdose mortality from 3,130 US counties were compared with availability of opioid treatment facilities that prescribed or allowed medications for OUD (MOUD), from 2018-2019. The outcome variable, "risk-availability mismatch" county, was a binary indicator of a high rate (above national average) of opioid overdose mortality with a low (below national average) rate of opioid treatment facilities. Covariates of interest included county-level sociodemographics and rates of insurance, unemployment, educational attainment, poverty, urbanicity, opioid prescribing, depression, heart disease, Gini index, and Theil index. Multilevel logistic regression, accounting for the clustering of counties within states, was used to determine associations with being a "risk-availability mismatch" county.

RESULTS

Of 3,130 counties, 1,203 (38.4%) had high rates of opioid overdose mortality. A total of 1,098 counties (35.1%) lacked a publicly-available opioid treatment facility in 2019. In the adjusted model, counties with an additional 1% of: white residents (odds ratio, OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), unemployment (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.19), and residents without insurance (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08) had increased odds of being a mismatch county. Counties that were metropolitan (versus non-metropolitan) had an increased odds of being a mismatch county (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.45-2.38).

CONCLUSION

Assessing mismatch between treatment availability and need provides useful information to characterize counties that require greater public health investment. Interventions to reduce overdose mortality are unlikely to be effective if they do not take into account diverse upstream factors, including sociodemographics, disease burden, and geographic context of communities.

Adult Development and Associated Health Risks

Much has been learned about adult development in recent decades. Adults go through stages of development (emerging adulthood, young adulthood, middle adulthood, post-retirement, and very old age) with certain challenges at each stage. Viewing patients through a developmental lens is part of providing patient-centered care. Knowing the prominent issues, stressors, and risks at each stage of development is important in understanding patients. This knowledge can help customize medical advice to patients regarding obesity, disability, sleep, substance use, relationships, and age-related declines. This paper summarizes an updated view of adult development and discusses its relevance to health risks and patient-centered care practices at different stages.

Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure

The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.

Reevaluating the "deaths of despair" narrative: Racial/ethnic heterogeneity in the trend of psychological distress-related death

Despite the significant scientific advancement in deciphering the "deaths of despair" narrative, most relevant studies have focused on drug-, alcohol-, and suicide-related (DAS) deaths. This study directly investigated despair as a determinant of death and the temporal variation and racial heterogeneity among individuals. We used psychological distress (PD) as a proxy for despair and drew data from the US National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files 1997 to 2014, CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) Multiple Cause of Death database 1997 to 2014, CDC bridged-race population files 1997 to 2014, Current Population Survey 1997 to 1999, and the American Community Survey 2000 to 2014. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate mortality hazard ratios of PD and compared age-standardized PD- and DAS-related mortality rates by race/ethnicity and over time. We found that while Whites had a lower prevalence of PD than Blacks and Hispanics throughout the whole period, they underwent distinctive increases in PD-related death and have had a higher PD-related mortality rate than Blacks and Hispanics since the early 2000s. This was predominantly due to Whites' relatively high and increasing vulnerability to PD less the prevalence of PD. Furthermore, PD induced a more pervasive mortality consequence than DAS combined for Whites and Blacks. In addition, PD- and DAS-related deaths displayed a concordant trend among Whites but divergent patterns for Blacks and Hispanics. These findings suggest that 1) DAS-related deaths underestimated the mortality consequence of despair for Whites and Blacks but overestimated it for Hispanics; and 2) despair partially contributed to the DAS trend among Whites but probably not for Blacks and Hispanics.

US exceptionalism? International trends in midlife mortality

BACKGROUND

Rising midlife mortality in the USA has raised concerns, particularly the increase in 'deaths of despair' (due to drugs, alcohol and suicide). Life expectancy is also stalling in other countries such as the UK, but how trends in midlife mortality are evolving outside the USA is less understood. We provide a synthesis of cause-specific mortality trends in midlife (25-64 years of age) for the USA and the UK as well as other high-income and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries.

METHODS

We document trends in midlife mortality in the USA, UK and a group of 13 high-income countries in Western Europe, Australia, Canada and Japan, as well as seven CEE countries from 1990 to 2019. We use annual mortality data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database to analyse sex- and age-specific (25-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years) age-standardized death rates across 15 major cause-of-death categories.

RESULTS

US midlife mortality rates have worsened since 1990 for several causes of death including drug-related, alcohol-related, suicide, metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases, respiratory diseases and infectious/parasitic diseases. Deaths due to homicide, transport accidents and cardiovascular diseases have declined since 1990 but saw recent increases or stalling of improvements. Midlife mortality also increased in the UK for people aged 45-54 year and in Canada, Poland and Sweden among for those aged 25-44 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The USA is increasingly falling behind not only high-income, but also CEE countries, some of which were heavily impacted by the post-socialist mortality crisis of the 1990s. Although levels of midlife mortality in the UK are substantially lower than those in the USA overall, there are signs that UK midlife mortality is worsening relative to that in Western Europe.

Generational differences in physical health and disability in the United States and Europe

Objectives

Declines in mortality have typically been associated with improvements in physical health across generations. While life expectancy in most high-income countries continues to increase, there is evidence that younger generations, particularly in the United States (US), are less healthy than previous generations at the same age. We compared generational trends in physical health in the US, England, and continental Europe to explore whether other regions have experienced a similar pattern of worsening health across cohorts.

Methods

Using data from nationally representative studies of adults aged ≥50 years from the US (Health and Retirement Study, n=26,939), England (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, n=14,992) and 11 continental European countries (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, n=72,595), we estimated differences in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported chronic disease and disability and observer-measured health indicators across pseudo-birth cohorts (born <1925, 1925-1935, 1936-1945, 1946-1954, 1955-1959).

Results

Age-adjusted prevalence of doctor-diagnosed chronic disease increased across cohorts in all regions. Trends in disability prevalence were more regionally varied. Still, in both the US and Europe, we observed a structural break in disability trends, with declines observed in pre-war cohorts slowing, stalling, or reversing for cohorts born since 1945.

Discussion

In all regions, we found evidence for worsening health across cohorts, particularly for those born since 1945. While more chronic disease in younger cohorts need not necessarily translate to worse quality of life or higher rates of functional limitation, there is some suggestion that worsening chronic disease morbidity may be spilling over into worsening disability.

The efficacy of intranasal leptin for opioid-induced respiratory depression depends on sex and obesity state

Introduction: Opioid-induced respiratory depression (OIRD) is the primary cause of death associated with opioids and individuals with obesity are particularly susceptible due to comorbid obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Repeated exposure to opioids, as in the case of pain management, results in diminished therapeutic effect and/or the need for higher doses to maintain the same effect. With limited means to address the negative impact of repeated exposure it is critical to develop drugs that prevent deaths induced by opioids without reducing beneficial analgesia. Methods: We hypothesized that OIRD as a result of chronic opioid use can be attenuated by administration of IN leptin while also maintaining analgesia in both lean mice and mice with diet-induced obesity (DIO) of both sexes. To test this hypothesis, an opioid tolerance protocol was developed and a model of OIRD in mice chronically receiving morphine and tolerant to morphine analgesia was established. Subsequently, breathing was recorded by barometric plethysmography in four experimental groups: obese male, obese female, lean male, and lean female following acute administration of IN leptin. Respiratory data were complemented with measures of arterial blood gas. Operant behavioral assays were used to determine the impact of IN leptin on the analgesic efficacy of morphine. Results: Acute administration of IN leptin significantly attenuated OIRD in DIO male mice decreasing the apnea index by 58.9% and apnea time by 60.1%. In lean mice leptin was ineffective. Blood gas measures confirmed the effectiveness of IN leptin for preventing respiratory acidosis in DIO male mice. However, IN leptin was not effective in lean mice of both sexes and appeared to exacerbate acid-base disturbances in DIO female mice. Additionally, morphine caused a complete loss of temperature aversion which was not reduced by intranasal leptin indicating IN leptin does not decrease morphine analgesia. Discussion: IN leptin effectively treated OIRD in morphine-tolerant DIO male mice without impacting analgesia. In contrast, IN leptin had no effect in lean mice of either sex or DIO female mice. The arterial blood gas data were consistent with ventilatory findings showing that IN leptin reversed morphine-induced respiratory acidosis only in DIO male mice but not in other mouse groups. Finally, a hypercapnic sensitivity study revealed that IN leptin rescued minute ventilation under hypercapnic conditions only in DIO male mice, which suggests that differential responses to IN leptin are attributable to different leptin sensitivities depending on sex and the obesity status.

Trends in cause-specific mortality: deaths of despair in Spain, 1980-2019

BACKGROUND

Research from various countries has shown increases in alcohol- and drug-related deaths and suicide, known as 'deaths of despair' over recent decades, particularly among low-educated middle-aged individuals. However, little is known about trends in death-of-despair causes in Spain. Therefore, we aim to descriptively examine this among 25-64-year-olds from 1980 to 2019 and by educational attainment for the years 2017-19.

METHODS

We obtained mortality and population data from the National Institute of Statistics to estimate age-standardized mortality rates and assess educational inequalities using the relative index of inequality (RII).

RESULTS

Deaths of despair as a share of total mortality slightly increased from 2000 onwards, particularly among 25-64-year-old men (from 9 to 10%). Only alcohol-related mortality declined relatively more since 1980 compared with all-cause mortality. Regarding educational differences, low-educated men presented higher mortality rates in all death-of-despair causes (alcohol-related: RII 3.54 (95% CI: 2.21-5.66); drug-related: RII 3.49 (95% CI: 1.80-6.77); suicide: RII 1.97 (95% CI: 1.49-2.61)). Women noteworthy differences were only observed for alcohol-related (RII 3.50 (95% CI: 2.13-5.75)).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest an increasing proportion of deaths of despair among 25-64-year-olds since 2000, particularly among men. Public health policies are needed to reduce and prevent these premature and preventable causes of mortality.

Intervention targets for reducing mortality between mid-adolescence and mid-adulthood: a protocol for a machine-learning facilitated systematic umbrella review

INTRODUCTION

A rise in premature mortality-defined here as death during the most productive years of life, between adolescence and middle adulthood (15-60 years)-is contributing to stalling life expectancy in high-income countries. Causes of mortality vary, but often include substance misuse, suicide, unintentional injury and non-communicable disease. The development of evidence-informed policy frameworks to guide new approaches to prevention require knowledge of early targets for intervention, and interactions between higher level drivers. Here, we aim to: (1) identify systematic reviews with or without meta-analyses focused on intervention targets for premature mortality (in which intervention targets are causes of mortality that can, at least hypothetically, be modified to reduce risk); (2) evaluate the review quality and risk of bias; (3) compare and evaluate each review's, and their relevant primary studies, findings to identify existing evidence gaps.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In May 2023, we searched electronic databases (MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library) for peer-reviewed papers published in the English language in the 12 years from 2012 to 2023 that examined intervention targets for mortality. Screening will narrow these papers to focus on systematic reviews with or without meta-analyses, and their primary papers. Our outcome is death between ages 15 and 60 years; with potential intervention targets measured prior to death. A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews (AMSTAR 2) will be used to assess quality and risk of bias within included systematic reviews. Results will be synthesised narratively due to anticipated heterogeneity between reviews and between primary studies contained within included reviews.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This review will synthesise findings from published systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and their primary reviewed studies, meaning ethics committee approval is not required. Our findings will inform cross-cohort consortium development, be published in a peer-reviewed journal, and be presented at national and international conferences.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022355861.

Demography as a Field: Where We Came From and Where We Are Headed

This essay provides a series of reflections on the current state of demography as seen by four early-career researchers who are actively engaged in aspects of the discipline as varied as research, teaching, mentorship, data collection efforts, policy making, and policy advising. Despite some claims that the discipline is weakening, we showcase the great potential of the field and outline promising pathways and novel directions for the future. In so doing, we critically assess recent innovations in data quality and availability, stressing the need to "revolutionize" the way that demographic methods are taught by adopting a viewpoint that more closely reflects the rapidly changing, or "fast," nature of global social phenomena such as conflict-related displacements, environmental disasters, migration streams, pandemics, and evolving population policies. We conclude by discussing the relevance of careful demographic analyses for policy making, stressing three main points: (i) the need to make demography more visible and understandable to the public eye; (ii) the importance of engaging and co-creating with local communities to "break" the academic bubble; and (iii) the urge to counteract the spread of misinformation-a phenomenon that has become even more visible in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak.

The mediating effect of family health on the relationship between health literacy and mental health: A national cross-sectional survey in China

BACKGROUND

Mental health problems significantly affect people's well-being and result in a huge health burden. Health literacy and family health are critical to reducing people's mental health problems. However, limited studies have addressed their complex interaction. Thus, this study aims to elucidate the mediating effect of family health on the relationship between health literacy and mental health.

METHODS

A national cross-sectional study based on multistage random sampling was conducted from July 10 to Sep 15, 2021, in China. Information about the public's health literacy, family health, and the level of three common mental health problems (depression, anxiety, and stress) was collected. A structural equation model (SEM) was applied to explore the mediating effect of family health on the relationship between health literacy and mental health.

RESULTS

A total of 11,031 participants were investigated. Approximately 19.93 and 13.57% of participants experienced moderate or severe depressive and anxiety symptoms, respectively. The SEM showed that health literacy was directly associated with mental health, with higher health literacy resulting in lower levels of depression (coefficient: -0.018, p = .049), anxiety (coefficient: -0.040, p < .001), and stress (coefficient: -0.105, p < .001). In addition, family health played a significant mediating effect (p < .001) between health literacy and mental health, contributing to 47.5, 70.9, and 85.1% of the total effect of health literacy on personal stress, anxiety, and depression, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that the improvement of health literacy is directly and indirectly associated with less likelihood of people's mental health problems via family health. Thus, future mental health interventions should be integrated and targeted both at individual level and the family level.

Comparing trends in mid-life 'deaths of despair' in the USA, Canada and UK, 2001-2019: is the USA an anomaly?

OBJECTIVES

In recent years, 'deaths of despair' due to drugs, alcohol and suicide have contributed to rising mid-life mortality in the USA. We examine whether despair-related deaths and mid-life mortality trends are also changing in peer countries, the UK and Canada.

DESIGN

Descriptive analysis of population mortality rates.

SETTING

The USA, UK (and constituent nations England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and Canada, 2001-2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Full population aged 35-64 years.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We compared all-cause and 'despair'-related mortality trends at mid-life across countries using publicly available mortality data, stratified by three age groups (35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years) and by sex. We examined trends in all-cause mortality and mortality by causes categorised as (1) suicides, (2) alcohol-specific deaths and (3) drug-related deaths. We employ several descriptive approaches to visually inspect age, period and cohort trends in these causes of death.

RESULTS

The USA and Scotland both saw large relative increases and high absolute levels of drug-related deaths. The rest of the UK and Canada saw relative increases but much lower absolute levels in comparison. Alcohol-specific deaths showed less consistent trends that did not track other 'despair' causes, with older groups in Scotland seeing steep declines over time. Suicide deaths trended slowly upward in most countries.

CONCLUSIONS

In the UK, Scotland has suffered increases in drug-related mortality comparable with the USA, while Canada and other UK constituent nations did not see dramatic increases. Alcohol-specific and suicide mortalities generally follow different patterns to drug-related deaths across countries and over time, questioning the utility of a cohesive 'deaths of despair' narrative.

Defining despair: Assessing the multidimensionality of despair and its association with suicidality and substance use in early to middle adulthood

Despite considerable scientific interest in documenting growing despair among U.S. adults, far less attention has been paid to defining despair and identifying appropriate measures. Emerging perspectives from social science and psychiatry outline a comprehensive, multidimensional view of despair, inclusive of individuals' cognitive, emotional, biological and somatic, and behavioral circumstances. The current study assesses the structure and plausibility of this framework based on longitudinal data spanning early to middle adulthood. We identified 40 measures of different dimensions of despair in Wave IV (2008-2009) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adult to Adolescent Health (n = 9149). We used structural equation modeling to evaluate hypothesized relationships among observed and latent variables; we then regressed Wave V (2016-2018) suicidality, heavy drinking, marijuana use, prescription drug misuse, and illicit drug use on latent despair. Our analyses find that models for separate dimensions of despair and overall despair demonstrated excellent fit. Overall despair was a significant predictor of Wave V outcomes, especially suicidality, accounting for 20% of its variation, as compared to 1%-7% of the variation in substance use. Suicidality was consistently associated with all domains of despair; behavioral despair explained the most variation in substance use. Given these results we contend that, lacking direct measures, latent despair can be modeled using available survey items; however, some items are likely better indicators of latent dimensions of despair than others. Moreover, the association between despair and key health behaviors varies considerably, challenging its status as a mechanism simultaneously underlying increased substance use and suicide mortality in the United States. Critically, further validation of measures in other surveys can improve the operationalization of despair and its associated conceptual and theoretical frameworks, thus advancing our understanding of this concept.

Urban-Rural Disparities in Deaths of Despair: A County-Level Analysis 2004-2016 in the U.S

Introduction

The purpose of this study is to examine nationwide disparities in drug, alcohol, and suicide mortality; evaluate the association between county-level characteristics and these mortality rates; and illustrate spatial patterns of mortality risk to identify areas with elevated risk.

Methods

The authors applied a Bayesian spatial regression technique to investigate the association between U.S. county-level characteristics and drug, alcohol, and suicide mortality rates for 2004-2016, accounting for spatial correlation that occurs among counties.

Results

Mortality risks from drug, alcohol, and suicide were positively associated with the degree of rurality, the proportion of vacant housing units, the population with a disability, the unemployed population, the population with low access to grocery stores, and the population with no health insurance. Conversely, risks were negatively associated with Hispanic population, non-Hispanic Black population, and population with a bachelor's degree or higher.

Conclusions

Spatial disparities in drug, alcohol, and suicide mortality exist at the county level across the U.S. social determinants of health; educational attainment, degree of rurality, ethnicity, disability, unemployment, and health insurance status are important factors associated with these mortality rates. A comprehensive strategy that includes downstream interventions providing equitable access to healthcare services and upstream efforts in addressing socioeconomic conditions is warranted to effectively reduce these mortality burdens.

Gender differences in the association of polygenic risk and divergent depression trajectories from mid to late life: a national longitudinal study

Our research fills a critical gap in the depression literature by utilizing a life course perspective to examine gender-gene interactions in association with depression trajectories over time. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we estimated multi-level negative binomial and logistic mixed models to analyze gender-specific trajectories of depressive symptoms (CESD-8) and potential clinical depression risk from middle to late adulthood in relation to gender-by-polygenic-risk (PRS) interactions. We found increasingly greater female-male gaps in the CESD-8 scale and a higher probability of clinical depression risk with increasing polygenic risk scores. Furthermore, females' higher genetic vulnerabilities to depressive conditions than males vary from ages 51 to 90 years, with most salient larger differences at oldest old ages at 76-85 (e.g. 0.28 higher CESD-8 scale for females at ages 76-85 years than for similar-aged males; higher 3.44% probability of depression risk for females at ages 81-85 compared to similar-aged males) followed by old ages at 61-70  years (e.g. about 2.40% higher probability of depression risk for females at ages 61-70 years than for similar-aged males) in comparison to younger ages during middle adulthood. This study contributes to new knowledge of how gender-by-polygenic-risk interactions are associated with depression trajectories across the life course.

"Outside the Skin": The Persistence of Black-White Disparities in U.S. Early-Life Mortality

Research on Black-White disparities in mortality emphasizes the cumulative pathways through which racism gets "under the skin" to affect health. Yet this framing is less applicable in early life, when death is primarily attributable to external causes rather than cumulative, biological processes. We use mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System Multiple Cause of Death files and population counts from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result Program to analyze 705,801 deaths among Black and White males and females, ages 15-24. We estimate age-standardized death rates and single-decrement life tables to show how all-cause and cause-specific mortality changed from 1990 to 2016 by race and sex. Despite overall declines in early-life mortality, Black-White disparities remain unchanged across several causes-especially homicide, for which mortality is nearly 20 times as high among Black as among White males. Suicide and drug-related deaths are higher among White youth during this period, yet their impact on life expectancy at birth is less than half that of homicide among Black youth. Critically, early-life disparities are driven by preventable causes of death whose impact occurs "outside the skin," reflecting racial differences in social exposures and experiences that prove harmful for both Black and White adolescents and young adults.

Intergenerational Solidarity With Grandparents in Emerging Adulthood: Associations With Providing Support to Older Parents in Established Adulthood

We examined the link between types of intergenerational solidarity with grandparents among young adults in emerging adulthood and whether they provided instrumental and emotional support to their older parents in established adulthood. We used the 2000 and 2016 waves of the longitudinal study of generations and a sample of 229 grandmother-child and 175 grandfather-child dyads. Latent class analysis identified three classes describing intergenerational solidarity with grandparents (tight-knit, detached, and intimate-but-geographically distant) in grandmother-child and grandfather-child dyads in emerging adulthood. Path analyses showed that young adults who had a tight-knit relationship with their grandparents in emerging adulthood provided more instrumental and emotional support to their parents in established adulthood, compared with those who had a detached relationship with their grandparents in emerging adulthood. Results are interpreted in contexts of multigenerational interdependence within families and the sensitivity of young adults to the needs of older parents through their earlier connection to grandparents.

Significant impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on race/ethnic differences in US mortality

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic triggered global declines in life expectancy. The United States was hit particularly hard among high-income countries. Early data from the United States showed that these losses varied greatly by race/ethnicity in 2020, with Hispanic and Black Americans suffering much larger losses in life expectancy compared with White people. We add to this research by examining trends in lifespan inequality, average years of life lost, and the contribution of specific causes of death and ages to race/ethnic life-expectancy disparities in the United States from 2010 to 2020. We find that life expectancy in 2020 fell more for Hispanic and Black males (4.5 and 3.6 y, respectively) compared with White males (1.5 y). These drops nearly eliminated the previous life-expectancy advantage for the Hispanic compared with the White population, while dramatically increasing the already large gap in life expectancy between Black and White people. While the drops in life expectancy for the Hispanic population were largely attributable to official COVID-19 deaths, Black Americans saw increases in cardiovascular diseases and "deaths of despair" over this period. In 2020, lifespan inequality increased slightly for Hispanic and White populations but decreased for Black people, reflecting the younger age pattern of COVID-19 deaths for Hispanic people. Overall, the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic hit race/ethnic minorities particularly hard in the United States, underscoring the importance of the social determinants of health during a public health crisis.

Drugs or despair? Unraveling the rise in deaths of despair in Illinois

Purpose

Increases in deaths of despair in the USA have been associated with economic conditions and drug availability. In the state of Illinois, deaths of despair represent a significant public health issue. This study aims to examine the relationship between county-level economic distress, drug availability and mortality from deaths of despair collectively and for each contributing cause of death individually in the state of Illinois to better understand drivers of mortality locally.

Design/methodology/approach

Two cross-sectional analyses were conducted for 2010–2014 and 2015–2019. Correlations, regression analyses and relative weight analyses were applied to assess the relationship between deaths of despair mortality rate and the individual variables.

Findings

Deaths of despair mortality collectively and for each cause of death individually increased significantly from 2010–2014 to 2015–2019 in Illinois. Suicide mortality was higher in rural counties and was related to economic distress, while drug poisoning and alcohol-related deaths were higher in urban counties and were related to drug availability indicators.

Originality/value

While all three causes of death increased in the state, suicide mortality was inversely related to deaths of despair mortality. This may be because of different individual risk factors in rural versus urban areas or issues with coding cause of death. The findings of this study point to a rising public health challenge of deaths of despair mortality, particularly from substance use, in urban counties and from suicide in rural counties.

The Great Divide: Education, Despair, and Death

Deaths of despair, morbidity and emotional distress continue to rise in the US, largely borne by those without a college degree, the majority of American adults, for many of whom the economy and society are no longer delivering. Concurrently, all-cause mortality in the US is diverging by education in a way not seen in other rich countries. We review the rising prevalence of pain, despair, and suicide among those without a BA. Pain and despair created a baseline demand for opioids, but the escalation of addiction came from pharma and its political enablers. We examine the "politics of despair," how less-educated people have abandoned and been abandoned by the Democratic Party. While healthier states once voted Republican in presidential elections, now the less-healthy states do. We review deaths during COVID, finding mortality in 2020 replicated existing relative mortality differences between those with and without college degrees.

Inner child of the past: long-term protective role of childhood relationships with mothers and fathers and maternal support for mental health in middle and late adulthood

PURPOSE

National longitudinal studies that investigate the long-term association between early family life and mental health in middle and older adulthood are limited. This study aims to fill the gap by examining the protective effect of positive childhood relationships with mothers and fathers and parental support against depression among women and men in middle and late adulthood.

METHODS

The sample of 12,606 adults (7319 females; 5287 males) from the US Health and Retirement Study was nationally representative with the inclusion of 7 depression measures from 2008 to 2018. Two depression measures, CESD-8 scale and binary indicators of severe depressive symptoms, were used. Generalized estimation equations (GEE)-negative binomial models were estimated for CESD-8 and GEE-logit models were estimated for the binary indicator of severe depression. This study aimed to assess how positive parent-child relationships and maternal support protect the mental health of women and men in adulthood. Other risk and psychosocial factors, such as childhood depression, traumatic life events, stressful life events, marital status, and social support in adulthood were adjusted for.

RESULTS

Positive childhood relationships with mothers, fathers, or both parents and increased maternal support were associated with a lower risk of depression among both females and males from middle to old age, even if they experienced trauma, stressful life events, divorce, singlehood, widowhood, or little social support. Females benefited more psychologically than males from positive mother-daughter relationships and high-quality relationships with both parents. However, compared to mother-child relationships, positive father-child relationships protected men better psychosocially than females.

CONCLUSION

Findings underscore the importance of fathers' roles in promoting their children's, especially sons', emotional well-being. Interventions in early mother-child and father-child relationships and parental support are crucial for healthy aging in mental development.

An ecological study of temporal trends in 'deaths of despair' in England and Wales

PURPOSE

There is growing interest in the concept of 'deaths of despair' (DoD)-defined as deaths from three causes: suicide, drug poisoning, and alcohol-related conditions-as a more comprehensive indicator of the impact of psychological distress on mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the degree of commonality in trends and geographic patterning of deaths from these causes in England and Wales.

METHODS

WHO mortality data were used to calculate age-standardised, sex-specific temporal trends in DoD mortality and in mortality from suicide, drug poisonings, and alcohol-related conditions in England and Wales, 2001-2016. Three-year average crude rates were calculated for English local authorities for 2016-2018 and associations between rates were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation.

RESULTS

Between 2001 and 2016, the DoD mortality rate increased by 21·6% (males) and 16·9% (females). The increase was largely due to a rise in drug poisoning deaths, with limited tracking between trends in mortality by each cause. DoD mortality risk was highest in middle-aged people; there were rises in all age groups except 15-24 year old males and 65 + females. There were strong positive correlations (r = 0.66(males) and 0.60(females)) between local authority-area drug poisoning and alcohol-specific mortality rates in 2016-2018. Correlations of these outcomes with suicide were weaker (r = 0.29-0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

DoD mortality is increasing in England and Wales but there is limited evidence of commonality in the epidemiology of cause-specific mortality from the component causes of DoD (suicide, drug poisoning and alcohol-related conditions), indicating the need for tailored prevention for each outcome.

"Lives of despair" at risk for "deaths of despair": tracking an under-recognized, vulnerable population

PURPOSE

The substantial and unexpected increase in "deaths of despair" in the US (e.g., deaths from drug overdose, suicide, and alcohol-related liver diseases) reported by economists Case and Deaton in 2015 raises questions about the number and characteristics of US adults potentially living "lives of despair" with these problems.

METHODS

We used data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions Wave III (NESARC-III) to examine population estimates and characteristics of adults with lifetime history of substance use disorder (SUD) and suicide attempt, or either condition alone, as compared to those with neither.

RESULTS

An estimated 7.2 million adults had both lifetime SUD and suicide attempt and 78.8 million had either. Those with both faced far more psychosocial adversities, familial adverse experiences and psychiatric disorders compared to those with the other two groups, and reported greater mental health service utilization. Multivariable analysis showed that psychiatric multimorbidity and violence were the strongest correlates of having both conditions as compared to neither while those with either condition fell in between.

CONCLUSION

A substantial number of US adults live with a lifetime SUD and suicide attempt with a multiplicity of additional socioeconomic, psychiatric and familial problems. While their utilization of mental health care service exceeds those with either or neither conditions, quality of life remained much poorer, suggesting that mental health treatment alone may not be enough to mitigate their sufferings, and a combination of both social policy support and quality mental health care may be needed.

Cardiovascular Mortality Gap Between the United States and Other High Life Expectancy Countries in 2000-2016

OBJECTIVES

Reductions in U.S. cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have stagnated. While other high life expectancy countries (HLCs) have also recently experienced a stall, the stagnation in CVD mortality in the United States appeared earlier and has been more pronounced. The reasons for the stall are unknown. We analyze cross-national variations in mortality trends to quantify the U.S. exceptionality and provide insight into its underlying causes.

METHODS

Data are from the World Health Organization (2000-2016). We quantified differences in levels and trends of CVD mortality between the United States and 17 other HLCs. We decomposed differences to identify the individual contributions of major CVD subclassifications (ischemic heart disease [IHD], stroke, other heart diseases). To identify potential behavioral explanations, we compared trends in CVD mortality with trends in other causes of death related to obesity, smoking, alcohol, and drugs.

RESULTS

Our study has four central findings: (a) U.S. CVD mortality is consistently higher than the average of other HLCs; (b) the U.S.-HLC gap declined until around 2008 and increased thereafter; (c) the shift from convergence to divergence was mainly driven by slowing IHD and stroke mortality reductions and increasing mortality from other CVD causes; (d) among the potential risk factors, only obesity- and alcohol-related mortality showed age-specific temporal changes that are similar to those observed for cardiovascular mortality.

DISCUSSION

The exceptional changes in U.S. CVD mortality are driven by a distinct pattern of slowing reductions in IHD and stroke mortality and deteriorating mortality from other CVD causes. Obesity and alcohol abuse appear to be interrelated factors.

Older Adults in the United States Have Worse Cardiometabolic Health Compared to England

Explanations for lagging life expectancy in the United States compared to other high-income countries have focused largely on "deaths of despair," but attention has also shifted to the role of stalling improvements in cardiovascular disease and the obesity epidemic. Using harmonized data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we assess differences in self-reported and objective measures of health, among older adults in the United States and England and explore whether the differences in body mass index (BMI) documented between the United States and England explain the U.S. disadvantage. Older adults in the United States have a much higher prevalence of diabetes, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high inflammation (C-reactive protein) compared to English adults. While the distribution of BMI is shifted to the right in the United States with more people falling into extreme obesity categories, these differences do not explain the cross-country differences in measured biological risk. We conclude by considering how country differences in health may have affected the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 mortality in both countries.

The relationship between Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) and death from cardiovascular disease or opioid use in counties across the United States (2009-2018)

BACKGROUND

Death from cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been a longstanding public health challenge in the US, whereas death from opioid use is a recent, growing public health crisis. While population-level approaches to reducing CVD risk are known to be effective in preventing CVD deaths, more targeted approaches in high-risk communities are known to work better for reducing risk of opioid overdose. For communities to plan effectively in addressing both public health challenges, they need information on significant community-level (vs individual-level) predictors of death from CVD or opioid use. This study addresses this need by examining the relationship between 1) county-level social determinants of health (SDoH) and CVD deaths and 2) county-level SDoH and opioid-use deaths in the US, over a ten-year period (2009-2018).

METHODS

A single national county-level ten-year 'SDoH Database' is analyzed, to address study objectives. Fixed-effects panel-data regression analysis, including county, year, and state-by-year fixed effects, is used to examine the relationship between 1) SDoH and CVD death-rate and 2) SDoH and opioid-use death-rate. Eighteen independent (SDoH) variables are included, spanning three contexts: socio-economic (e.g., race/ethnicity, income); healthcare (e.g., system-characteristics); and physical-infrastructure (e.g., housing).

RESULTS

After adjusting for county, year, and state-by-year fixed effects, the significant county-level positive SDoH predictors for CVD death rate were, median age and percentage of civilian population in armed forces. The only significant negative predictor was percentage of population reporting White race. On the other hand, the four significant negative predictors of opioid use death rate were median age, median household income, percent of population reporting Hispanic ethnicity and percentage of civilian population consisting of veterans. Notably, a dollar increase in median household income, was estimated to decrease sample mean opioid death rate by 0.0015% based on coefficient value, and by 20.05% based on effect size.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides several practice and policy implications for addressing SDoH barriers at the county level, including population-based approaches to reduce CVD mortality risk among people in military service, and policy-based interventions to increase household income (e.g., by raising county minimum wage), to reduce mortality risk from opioid overdoses.

Contextualizing Educational Disparities in Health: Variations by Race/Ethnicity, Nativity, and County-Level Characteristics

Educational disparities in health are well documented, yet the education-health relationship is inconsistent across racial/ethnic and nativity groups. These inconsistencies may arise from characteristics of the early life environments in which individuals attain their education. We evaluate this possibility by investigating (1) whether educational disparities in cardiometabolic risk vary by race/ethnicity and nativity among Black, Hispanic, and White young adults; (2) the extent to which racial/ethnic-nativity differences in the education-health relationship are contingent on economic, policy, and social characteristics of counties of early life residence; and (3) the county characteristics associated with the best health at higher levels of education for each racial/ethnic-nativity group. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we find that Black young adults who achieve high levels of education exhibit worse health across a majority of contexts relative to their White and Hispanic counterparts. Additionally, we observe more favorable health at higher levels of education across almost all contexts for White individuals. For all other racial/ethnic-nativity groups, the relationship between education and health depends on the characteristics of the early life counties of residence. Findings highlight place-based factors that may contribute to the development of racial/ethnic and nativity differences in the education-health relationship among U.S. young adults.

Declining Life Expectancy in the United States: Missing the Trees for the Forest

In recent years, life expectancy in the United States has stagnated, followed by three consecutive years of decline. The decline is small in absolute terms but is unprecedented and has generated considerable research interest and theorizing about potential causes. Recent trends show that the decline has affected nearly all race/ethnic and gender groups, and the proximate causes of the decline are increases in opioid overdose deaths, suicide, homicide, and Alzheimer's disease. A slowdown in the long-term decline in mortality from cardiovascular diseases has also prevented life expectancy from improving further. Although a popular explanation for the decline is the cumulative decline in living standards across generations, recent trends suggest that distinct mechanisms for specific causes of death are more plausible explanations. Interventions to stem the increase in overdose deaths, reduce access to mechanisms that contribute to violent deaths, and decrease cardiovascular risk over the life course are urgently needed to improve mortality in the United States.

Precarious work and heath: Do occupation- and state-specific unemployment rates matter for women and for men?

Precarious work has the potential to undermine workers' health and well-being, and linkages between precarious work and health may depend on contextual measures of unemployment. The present study uses data from the Current Population Survey (CPS; 2001-2019) to examine whether several characteristics of precarious work are associated with self-rated health, with attention to differences in these associations by occupation- and state-specific unemployment rates. Findings indicate that experiences of unemployment, part-time work, and poor work quality (limited social benefits and low wages) are associated with worse self-rated health for working women and men. Moreover, associations between some measures of precarious work and health are weaker at higher levels of occupation- and state-specific unemployment for men, but not for women. The present study points to precarious work as a chronic stressor for many workers that must be considered within broader economic contexts.

A Changing Landscape of Health Opportunity in the United States: Increases in the Strength of Association Between Childhood Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Adult Health Between the 1990s and the 2010s

Understanding the changing health consequences of childhood socioeconomic disadvantage (SED) is highly relevant to policy debates on inequality and national and state goals to improve population health. However, changes in the strength of association between childhood SED and adult health over historic time are largely unexamined in the United States. The present study begins to address this knowledge gap. Data were from 2 national samples of adults collected in 1995 (n = 7,108) and 2012 (n = 3,577) as part of the Midlife in the United States study. Three measures of childhood SED (parents' occupational prestige, childhood poverty exposure, and parents' education) were combined into an aggregate index and examined separately. The association between childhood SED (aggregate index) and 5 health outcomes (body mass index, waist circumference, chronic conditions, functional limitations, and self-rated health) was stronger in the 2012 sample than the 1995 sample, with the magnitude of associations being approximately twice as large in the more recent sample. Results persisted after adjusting for age, sex, race, marital status, and number of children, and were similar across all 3 measures of childhood SED. The findings suggest that the socioeconomic circumstances of childhood might have become a stronger predictor of adult health in recent decades.

Trends in "Deaths of Despair" Among Working-Aged White and Black Americans, 1990-2017

Life expectancy for US White men and women declined between 2013 and 2017. Initial explanations for the decline focused on increases in "deaths of despair" (i.e., deaths from suicide, drug use, and alcohol use), which have been interpreted as a cohort-based phenomenon afflicting middle-aged White Americans. There has been less attention on Black mortality trends from these same causes, and whether the trends are similar or different by cohort and period. We complement existing research and contend that recent mortality trends in both the US Black and White populations most likely reflect period-based exposures to 1) the US opioid epidemic and 2) the Great Recession. We analyzed cause-specific mortality trends in the United States for deaths from suicide, drug use, and alcohol use among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White Americans, aged 20-64 years, over 1990-2017. We employed sex-, race-, and cause-of-death-stratified Poisson rate models and age-period-cohort models to compare mortality trends. Results indicate that rising "deaths of despair" for both Black and White Americans are overwhelmingly driven by period-based increases in drug-related deaths since the late 1990s. Further, deaths related to alcohol use and suicide among both White and Black Americans changed during the Great Recession, despite some racial differences across cohorts.

Part-time work and health in the United States: The role of state policies

Part-time work is a common work arrangement in the United States that can be precarious, insecure, and lacking opportunities for advancement. In turn, part-time work, especially involuntary part-time work, tends to be associated with worse health outcomes. Although prior research documents heterogeneity in the health consequences of precarious work across countries, we do not know whether state-level institutional contexts shape the association between part-time work and self-rated health in the United States. Using data from the Current Population Survey (2009-2019; n = 813,077), the present study examined whether linkages between part-time work and self-rated health are moderated by state-level social policies and contexts. At the population level, we document differences in the prevalence of fair/poor health among part-time workers across states. For instance, 21% of involuntary part-time workers reported fair/poor health in West Virginia compared to 7% of involuntary part-time workers in Massachusetts. Findings also provide evidence that voluntary (β =.51) and involuntary (β=.57) part-time work is associated with greater odds of fair/poor health among individuals. Moreover, the association between voluntary part-time work and self-rated health is weaker for individuals living in states with higher amounts for maximum unemployment insurance, higher minimum wage, and lower income inequality. State-level policies did not moderate the association between involuntary part-time work and health. The present study points to the need to mitigate the health consequences of part-time work with social policies that enhance the health of workers.

"Healthier Than Just Healthy": Families Transmitting Health as Cultural Capital

As the relationship between social class and health strengthens and socioeconomic and health inequalities widen, understanding how parents' socioeconomic advantage translates into health and class advantages in the next generation is increasingly important. Our analyses illustrate how a classed performance of "health" is a fundamental component of transmitting cultural capital in families and communities. Socially advantaged parents' health and class goals for children are often met simultaneously by building children's cultural capital in community-specific ways. This study uses observational, interview, and focus group data from families in two middle-class communities to illustrate how health-focused cultural capital acquisition plays out in everyday life. As parents manage children's lives to ensure future advantages, they often focus on health-related behaviors and performances as symbols of class-based distinction for their children. The synergy between family and community cultural capital is strengthening class and health advantages for some children, even as health-focused cultural capital often has drawbacks for stress and well-being. The intensification of and value placed on "health" in cultural capital may have long-term implications for health, socioeconomic attainment, and inequalities. If health-focused cultural capital continues to become increasingly salient for status attainment, its importance could grow, widening these gaps and reducing intergenerational mobility.

Intergenerational upward mobility and racial differences in mortality among young adults: Evidence from county-level analyses

Inspired by the influential "deaths of despair" narrative, which emphasizes the role of worsening economic opportunity in driving the increasing mortality for non-Hispanic Whites in the recent decades, a rising number of studies have provided suggestive evidence that upward mobility levels across counties may partly explain variations in mortality rates. A gap in the literature is the lack of life-course studies examining the relationship between early-life upward mobility and later-life mortality across counties. Another gap is the lack of studies on how the relationship between upward mobility and mortality across counties varies across diverse sociodemographic populations. This study examines differences across race and sex in the relationship between early-life intergenerational upward mobility and early adulthood mortality at the county level. We use administrative data on upward mobility and vital statistics data on mortality across 3030 counties for those born between 1978 and 1983. We control for a variety of county-level socioeconomic variables in a model with fixed effects for state and year. Subgroup analyses by educational attainment and urban status were also performed for each race-sex combination. Results show strong negative relationships between early-life upward mobility and early adulthood mortality across racial-sex combinations, with a particularly greater magnitude for non-Hispanic Black males. In addition, individuals without a college degree and living in urban counties are particularly affected by early life upward mobility. The findings of this study highlight the vulnerability of less-educated, young urban Black males, due to the intersecting effects of the urban context, education, race, and sex.

Social Inequality and the Future of U.S. Life Expectancy

Despite decades of progress, the future of life expectancy in the United States is uncertain due to widening socioeconomic disparities in mortality, continued disparities in mortality across racial/ethnic groups, and an increase in extrinsic causes of death. These trends prompt us to scrutinize life expectancy in a high-income but enormously unequal society like the United States, where social factors determine who is most able to maximize their biological lifespan. After reviewing evidence for biodemographic perspectives on life expectancy, the uneven diffusion of health-enhancing innovations throughout the population, and the changing nature of threats to population health, we argue that sociology is optimally positioned to lead discourse on the future of life expectancy. Given recent trends, sociologists should emphasize the importance of the social determinants of life expectancy, redirecting research focus away from extending extreme longevity and towards research on social inequality with the goal of improving population health for all.

Debts of despair: Education, financial losses, and precursors of deaths of despair

Recent deaths of despair literature hypothesizes that financial losses are a key mechanism through which education is associated with higher risk for drug use, alcohol abuse, and suicidal ideation. However, few studies have empirically assessed the significance of this harmful pathway or compared it to other hypothesized explanations. Drawing on data from over 8000 respondents in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, this paper finds that lower education-levels are associated with heightened risk of drug use, painkiller use, frequent binge drinking, and suicidal ideation; in turn, decompositions reveal that financial losses mediate about 20 percent of the association between education with drug use and suicidal ideation. The results support a core assumption of the deaths of despair hypothesis-that financial losses among those with low education-levels drive the increase in harmful despair-associated behaviors, which often precede disease and mortality. Future research should extend this work by linking individual-level socioeconomic and health patterns with broader economic changes to better understand how individuals' educational attainment interacts with macro-level structural factors to shape their vulnerability to despair-associated disease and death.

Deaths of despair: cause-specific mortality and socioeconomic inequalities in cause-specific mortality among young men in Scotland

Background

Increasing mortality among men from drugs, alcohol and suicides is a growing public health concern in many countries. Collectively known as “deaths of despair”, they are seen to stem from unprecedented economic pressures and a breakdown in social support structures.

Methods

We use high-quality population wide Scottish data to calculate directly age-standardized mortality rates for men aged 15–44 between 1980 and 2018 for 15 leading causes of mortality. Absolute and relative inequalities in mortality by cause are calculated using small-area deprivation and the slope and relative indices of inequality (SII and RII_L) for the years 2001–2018.

Results

Since 1980 there have been only small reductions in mortality among men aged 15–44 in Scotland. In that period drug-related deaths have increased from 1.2 (95% CI 0.7–1.4) to 44.9 (95% CI 42.5–47.4) deaths per 100,000 and are now the leading cause of mortality. Between 2001 and 2018 there have been small reductions in absolute but not in relative inequalities in all-cause mortality. However, absolute inequalities in mortality from drugs have doubled from SII = 66.6 (95% CI 61.5–70.9) in 2001–2003 to SII = 120.0 (95% CI 113.3–126.8) in 2016–2018. Drugs are the main contributor to inequalities in mortality, and together with alcohol harm and suicides make up 65% of absolute inequalities in mortality.

Conclusions

Contrary to the substantial reductions in mortality across all ages in the past decades, deaths among young men are increasing from preventable causes. Attempts to reduce external causes of mortality have focused on a single cause of death and not been effective in reducing mortality or inequalities in mortality from external causes in the long-run. To reduce deaths of despair, action should be taken to address social determinants of health and reduce socioeconomic inequalities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-020-01329-7.

Can Labor Market Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair?

Do minimum wages and the earned income tax credit (EITC) mitigate rising "deaths of despair?" We leverage state variation in these policies over time to estimate event study and difference-in-differences models of deaths due to drug overdose, suicide, and alcohol-related causes. Our causal models find no significant effects on drug or alcohol-related mortality, but do find significant reductions in non-drug suicides. A 10 percent minimum wage increase reduces non-drug suicides among low-educated adults by 2.7 percent, and the comparable EITC figure is 3.0 percent. Placebo tests and event-study models support our causal research design. Increasing both policies by 10 percent would likely prevent a combined total of more than 700 suicides each year.

Clarifying assumptions in age-period-cohort analyses and validating results

BACKGROUND

Age-period-cohort (APC) models are often used to decompose health trends into period- and cohort-based sources, but their use in epidemiology and population sciences remains contentious. Central to the contention are researchers' failures to 1) clearly state their analytic assumptions and/or 2) thoroughly evaluate model results. These failures often produce varying conclusions across APC studies and generate confusion about APC methods. Consequently, scholarly exchanges about APC methods usually result in strong disagreements that rarely offer practical advice to users or readers of APC methods.

METHODS

We use research guidelines to help practitioners of APC methods articulate their analytic assumptions and validate their results. To demonstrate the usefulness of the guidelines, we apply them to a 2015 American Journal of Epidemiology study about trends in black-white differences in U.S. heart disease mortality.

RESULTS

The application of the guidelines highlights two important findings. On the one hand, some APC methods produce inconsistent results that are highly sensitive to researcher manipulation. On the other hand, other APC methods estimate results that are robust to researcher manipulation and consistent across APC models.

CONCLUSIONS

The exercise shows the simplicity and effectiveness of the guidelines in resolving disagreements over APC results. The cautious use of APC models can generate results that are consistent across methods and robust to researcher manipulation. If followed, the guidelines can likely reduce the chance of publishing variable and conflicting results across APC studies.