Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Progress in controlling the transmission of schistosome parasites in Southern Ethiopia: the Geshiyaro Project in the Wolaita Zone

BACKGROUND

This paper describes changes in the prevalence and intensity of schistosome parasite infections in a project integrating mass drug administration (MDA), water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH), and behavioral change interventions.

METHODS

The Geshiyaro Project comprises three intervention arms. Arm 1 is subdivided into "Arm 1 pilot" (one district) and Arm 1 (four other districts), both receiving integrated community-wide MDA with intensive WaSH interventions. Arm 2 involves 17 districts with community-wide MDA interventions, while Arm 3 serves as a control with school-based MDA interventions in three districts. A total of 150 individuals, stratified by age group, were randomly selected from each of the 45 sentinel sites. Arm sizes were 584 (Arm 1 pilot), 1636 (Arm 1), 2203 (Arm 2), and 2238 (Arm 3). Statistical tests were employed to compare infection prevalence and intensity across the different arms.

RESULTS

The prevalence of schistosome parasite infection ranged from 0% to 2.6% and from 1.7% to 25.7% across districts, employing the Kato-Katz (KK) and point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) diagnostics, respectively. The mean infection intensity level showed no marked difference between baseline and follow-up surveys when measured by KK, except in Arm 2 (t = 6.89, P < 0.0001). Infection prevalence decreased significantly in Arm 1 (t = 8.62, P < 0.0001), Arm 2 (t = 6.94, P < 0.0001), and Arm 3 (t = 8.83, P < 0.0001), but not in Arm 1 pilot (t = 1.69, P = 0.09) by POC-CCA, when trace was considered positive. The decrease was significant only in Arm 1 (t = 3.28, P = 0.0001) and Arm 2 (t = 7.62, P < 0.0001) when the trace was considered negative in POC-CCA. Arm 2 demonstrated a significant difference in difference (DID) compared to the control group, Arm 3, regardless of whether trace in POC-CCA was considered positive (DID = 3.9%, df = 8780, P = 0.025) or negative (DID = -5.2, df = 8780, P = 0.0004).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of schistosomiasis was low when employing the KK diagnostic but moderate in some locations by the POC-CCA diagnostic. The infection level had decreased across all arms of the Geshiyaro study at mid-term of the 7-year project, but further efforts are needed to reduce the rate of parasite transmission based on the POC-CCA diagnostic scores.

"Our interventions are still here to support communities during the pandemic": Resuming mass drug administration for neglected tropical diseases after COVID-19 implementation delays

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted essential health services, including those provided by national neglected tropical disease (NTD) programs. Most mass drug administration (MDA) programs were postponed for 6-12 months following World Health Organization guidance released in April 2020 to temporarily halt NTD programs and launch necessary COVID-19 precautions. While NTD-endemic countries have since resumed MDA activities, it is critical to understand implementers' perspectives on the key challenges and opportunities for program relaunch, as these insights are critical for maximizing gains towards disease control and elimination during public health emergencies. Using data from using online surveys and focus group discussions, this mixed-methods study sought perspectives from Ministry of Health NTD Program Managers and implementing partners from non-governmental organizations working in sub-Saharan Africa. Data analysis revealed that findings converged around several main themes: disruptions for MDA programs included resource shortages due to prioritization of pandemic response, challenges adhering to COVID-19 safety protocols, and community hesitancy due to coronavirus transmission fears. Identified solutions for restarting MDA programs focused on adapting intervention delivery and packaging to minimize disease transmission, embracing technology to optimize intervention planning and delivery, and identifying opportunities to promote program integration between pandemic response strategies and NTD campaign delivery. Findings identifies key challenges due to disruptions to NTD program delivery and provide strategic recommendations for endemic countries to build resilient programs that can continue to perform during and beyond global pandemics.

Concordance between Ov16 Rapid Diagnostic Test(RDT) and Ov16 Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) for the Diagnosis of Onchocerciasis in Areas of Contrasting Endemicity in Cameroon

The diagnosis of onchocerciasis in endemic areas has been demanding given the need to replace the invasive skin snip method with a more sensitive and specific rapid point-of-contact tool. Filarial antigen detection tests are better alternative methods in diagnosing Onchocercal infections, as they detect infections and could be used to monitor transmission in endemic areas following mass drug administration. With the shift in paradigme from control to elimination, a rapid point- of-contact tool is required to support elimination programs. This was a cross-sectional, community-based study conducted in 50 villages selected from six health districts using a systematic sampling technique. Individuals ≥17 years who had lived in the community for a duration of 5 years and above provided blood specimens for IgG4 antibodies testing against O. volvulus antigens. Data were analyzed using SPSS v.20 and expectation maximization to classify optical densities for positive and negative samples from ELISA results. The kappa statistics was used to measure the level of agreement between the two tests. In a total of 5001 participants which were recruited for the study, 4416 (88.3 %) participant samples passed the plate quality control criteria and were considered for the test comparison analysis. Out of the 4416 participants, 292 (6.6 %) tested positive with Ov16 RDT and 310 (7.0 %) with Ov16 ELISA. All those who tested positive with the rapid test agreed positive with ELISA. The overall percentage agreement was 99.2 %, the Kappa score of 0.936. The results obtained indicate an excellent agreement between ELISA and RDT as measured by kappa (0.936) which was statistically significant (P<0.001). Our experience with the Ov16 ELISA biplex rapid test was favorable. However, the Ov16 RDT test may be more appropriate to use in remote areas for the point diagnosis of onchocerciasis in view towards achieving elimination in Africa.

Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Understanding and accurately predicting the environmental limits, population at risk and burden of podoconiosis are critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services, planning control and elimination programs and implementing tailored case finding and surveillance activities.

METHODS

This is secondary analysis of a nationwide podoconiosis mapping survey in Kenya. We combined national representative prevalence survey data of podoconiosis with climate and environmental data, overlayed with population figures in a geostatistical modelling framework, to predict the environmental suitability, population living in at-risk areas and number of cases of podoconiosis in Kenya.

RESULTS

In 2020, the number of people living with podoconiosis in Kenya was estimated to be 9344 (95% uncertainty interval 4222 to 17 962). The distribution of podoconiosis varies by geography and three regions (Eastern, Nyanza and Western) represent >90% of the absolute number of cases. High environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in four regions of Kenya (Coastal, Eastern, Nyanza and Western). In total, 2.2 million people live in at-risk areas and 4.2% of the total landmass of Kenya is environmentally predisposed for podoconiosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of podoconiosis is relatively low in Kenya and is mostly restricted to certain small geographical areas. Our results will help guide targeted prevention and treatment approaches through local planning, spatial targeting and tailored surveillance activities.

Application of loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assays for the detection of Onchocerca volvulus, Loa loa and Mansonella perstans in humans and vectors

Conventional diagnosis of filarial infections is based on morphological identification of microfilariae using light microscopy and requires considerable expertise, is time-consuming, and can be subjective. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) has advantages over microscopy or PCR because of its operational simplicity, rapidity and versatility of readout options. LAMP assays represent a major step forward in improved filarial diagnostic tools suitable for low resource settings and field applicability. The study goal was to retrospectively evaluate the performance and suitability of the O-150, RF4, and Mp419 LAMP assays for diagnosing Onchocerca volvulus, Loa loa and Mansonella perstans infections, respectively, in humans and vectors under experimental and natural field conditions. Surveys were conducted in four health districts of Cameroon using skin snip and thick blood film methods to detect skin (O. volvulus) and blood (L. loa and M. perstans) dwelling microfilaria in humans. Engorged vectors (Simulium spp., Chrysops spp., and Culicoides spp.) were evaluated by LAMP. Dissected, wild-caught vectors were also analyzed. LAMP showed a prevalence of 40.4% (O. volvulus), 17.8% (L. loa) and 36.6% (M. perstans) versus 20.6% (O. volvulus), 17.4% (L. loa) and 33.8% (M. perstans) with microscopy. Simulium spp. were dissected for microscopy and pooled for LAMP. The O-150 LAMP assay infection rate was 4.3% versus 4.1% by microscopy. Chrysops spp. were dissected and analyzed individually in the LAMP assay. The RF4 LAMP assay infection rate was 23.5% versus 3.3% with microscopy. The RF4 LAMP assay also detected parasites in Chrysops spp. fed on low microfilaremic volunteers. The Mp419 LAMP assay infection rate was 0.2% for C. milnei and 0.04% for C. grahamii, while three other species were LAMP-negative. The sensitivity, species specificity, rapidity and ease of its use of these filarial LAMP assays, and validation of their performance in the field support use as alternatives to microscopy as diagnostic and surveillance tools in global health programs aimed to eliminate onchocerciasis.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Role of socioeconomic factors in developing mycetoma: Results from a household survey in Sennar State, Sudan

BACKGROUND

Mycetoma is a chronic, progressively destructive disease of subcutaneous tissues and bones caused by certain species of bacteria or fungi. We conducted a cross-sectional community-based study alongside mapping of mycetoma in five administrative units with high mycetoma endemicity in the Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan.

METHODS

A household survey was administered which included questions about the household members, household characteristics, economic activity and history of mycetoma. A clinical examination was conducted on all members of the household. If mycetoma was suspected, an individual questionnaire was completed collecting demographic, clinical and epidemiological data as well as information on the use of health care and associated costs. Geographical coordinates and photos of the lesions were taken, and the affected persons were referred to the medical centre for confirmation of the diagnosis and treatment. We compared the characteristics of households with confirmed cases of mycetoma with those without confirmed cases, and individuals with confirmed mycetoma with those in whom mycetoma was not confirmed.

RESULTS

In total 7,798 households in 60 villages were surveyed; 515 suspected cases were identified and 359 cases of mycetoma were confirmed. Approximately 15% of households with mycetoma had more than one household member affected by this disease. Households with mycetoma were worse off with respect to water supply, toilet facilities, electricity and electrical appliances compared to the survey households. Only 23% of study participants with mycetoma had sought professional help. Of these, 77% of patients travelled an average of six hours to visit a medical facility. More than half of patients had to pay towards their treatment. The estimated average cost of treatment was 26,957 Sudanese pounds per year (566 US dollars, exchange rate 2018).

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this survey suggest that agricultural practices and reduced access to sanitation and clean water can be risk factors in developing mycetoma. Poor access to health care and substantial financial costs were barriers to seeking treatment for mycetoma.

Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991-2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach

Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services. In this study, we have combined a large dataset of mycetoma cases recorded by the Mycetoma Research Centre (MRC) in Sudan over 28 years (1991-2018) with a collection of environmental and water and hygiene-related datasets in a geostatistical framework to produce estimates of the disease burden across the country. We developed geostatistical models to predict the number of cases of actinomycetoma and eumycetoma in areas considered environmentally suitable for the two mycetoma forms. Then used the raster dataset (gridded map) with the population estimates for 2020 to compute the potentially affected population since 1991. The geostatistical models confirmed this heterogeneous and distinct distribution of the estimated cases of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma across Sudan. For eumycetoma, these higher-risk areas were smaller and scattered across Al Jazirah, Khartoum, White Nile and Sennar states, while for actinomycetoma a higher risk for infection is shown across the rural districts of North and West Kurdufan. Nationally, we estimated 63,825 people (95%CI: 13,693 to 197,369) to have been suffering from mycetoma since 1991 in Sudan,51,541 people (95%CI: 9,893-166,073) with eumycetoma and 12,284 people (95%CI: 3,800-31,296) with actinomycetoma. In conclusion, the risk of mycetoma in Sudan is particularly high in certain restricted areas, but cases are ubiquitous across all states. Both prevention and treatment services are required to address the burden. Such work provides a guide for future control and prevention programs for mycetoma, highly endemic areas are clearly targeted, and resources are directed to areas with high demand.

Individual Risk Factors of Mycetoma Occurrence in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan: A Case-Control Study

Mycetoma is a serious chronic subcutaneous granulomatous inflammatory disease that is endemic in tropical and subtropical regions, where it impacts profoundly on patients, families, and communities. Individual-level risk factors for the disease are poorly understood. To address this, a case-control study was conducted based on data collected from 60 villages in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan. Based on the presence of swelling in any part of the body, or sinus formation with or without grain discharge evident from the lesion by ultrasound examination, we diagnosed 359 cases of mycetoma. For each case, we included three healthy sex-matched persons, with no evidence of mycetoma, from the same village as the control group (n = 1077). The odds for mycetoma were almost three times higher in individuals in the age group 16–30 years (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.804, 95% CI = 1.424–5.523) compared to those in age group ≤ 15 years. Other factors contributing to the odds of mycetoma were history of local trauma (AOR = 1.892, 95% CI = 1.425–2.513), being unmarried (AOR = 3.179, 95% CI = 2.339–4.20) and owning livestock (AOR = 3.941, 95% CI = 2.874–5.405). In conclusion, certain factors found to be associated with mycetoma in this study could inform a high index of suspicion for mycetoma diagnosis, which would improve early case detection. Other factors found to be associated could inform the development of an interventional program for mycetoma control in Sudan, including education on healthy farming practices and the risks of puncture wounds for individuals residing in endemic areas. However, this work was conducted in one endemic state, while mycetoma cases occur in all states of Sudan. Replicating this study over a wider area would give a fuller picture of the situation, providing the control program with more comprehensive information on the risk factors for the disease.

Progress in health among regions of Ethiopia, 1990-2019: a subnational country analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Previous Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) studies have reported national health estimates for Ethiopia. Substantial regional variations in socioeconomic status, population, demography, and access to health care within Ethiopia require comparable estimates at the subnational level. The GBD 2019 Ethiopia subnational analysis aimed to measure the progress and disparities in health across nine regions and two chartered cities.

METHODS

We gathered 1057 distinct data sources for Ethiopia and all regions and cities that included census, demographic surveillance, household surveys, disease registry, health service use, disease notifications, and other data for this analysis. Using all available data sources, we estimated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), total fertility rate (TFR), life expectancy, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk-factor-attributable health loss with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for Ethiopia's nine regions and two chartered cities from 1990 to 2019. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, cause of death ensemble model, Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, and other models were used to generate fertility, mortality, cause of death, and disability rates. The risk factor attribution estimations followed the general framework established for comparative risk assessment.

FINDINGS

The SDI steadily improved in all regions and cities from 1990 to 2019, yet the disparity between the highest and lowest SDI increased by 54% during that period. The TFR declined from 6·91 (95% UI 6·59-7·20) in 1990 to 4·43 (4·01-4·92) in 2019, but the magnitude of decline also varied substantially among regions and cities. In 2019, TFR ranged from 6·41 (5·96-6·86) in Somali to 1·50 (1·26-1·80) in Addis Ababa. Life expectancy improved in Ethiopia by 21·93 years (21·79-22·07), from 46·91 years (45·71-48·11) in 1990 to 68·84 years (67·51-70·18) in 2019. Addis Ababa had the highest life expectancy at 70·86 years (68·91-72·65) in 2019; Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz had the lowest at 63·74 years (61·53-66·01) for Afar and 64.28 (61.99-66.63) for Benishangul-Gumuz. The overall increases in life expectancy were driven by declines in under-5 mortality and mortality from common infectious diseases, nutritional deficiency, and war and conflict. In 2019, the age-standardised all-cause death rate was the highest in Afar at 1353·38 per 100 000 population (1195·69-1526·19). The leading causes of premature mortality for all sexes in Ethiopia in 2019 were neonatal disorders, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, stroke, HIV/AIDS, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, congenital defects, and diabetes. With high SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari had low rates of premature mortality from the five leading causes, whereas regions with low SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes (Afar and Somali) had high rates of premature mortality from the leading causes. In 2019, child and maternal malnutrition; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; air pollution; high systolic blood pressure; alcohol use; and high fasting plasma glucose were the leading risk factors for health loss across regions and cities.

INTERPRETATION

There were substantial improvements in health over the past three decades across regions and chartered cities in Ethiopia. However, the progress, measured in SDI, life expectancy, TFR, premature mortality, disability, and risk factors, was not uniform. Federal and regional health policy makers should match strategies, resources, and interventions to disease burden and risk factors across regions and cities to achieve national and regional plans, Sustainable Development Goals, and universal health coverage targets.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Clinical epidemiological characteristics of mycetoma in Eastern Sennar locality, Sennar State, Sudan

Mycetoma epidemiological features remain uncharacterised. Few studies have been conducted in a community-based setting to explore the epidemiological features and risk factors for mycetoma in Sudan. To bridge this gap, this study was conducted in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan, to report the clinical, epidemiological characteristics of mycetoma patients and the disease burden in the state. We used cluster sampling; sixty villages were randomly selected across the locality's five administrative units, and a household-to-household survey was conducted. We collected data using pre-designed questionnaires at the community, household, and individual levels. We performed descriptive analyses of the data and produced prevalence maps using ArcGIS 10.5 ([ESRI] Inc., Redlands CA, USA). A total of 41,176 individuals were surveyed, and 359 mycetoma patients were identified. The overall prevalence of mycetoma was 0.87% (95%CI = 0.78-0.97%), the prevalence among males was 0.83% (95%CI = 0.71-0.96%), and females 0.92% (95% CI = 0.79-1.06%). Individuals in the age group 31-45 years had the highest prevalence among the different age groups (1.52%, 95% CI = 1.23-1.86%). The prevalence map showed patients clustered within the central and north-eastern part of the locality, while villages in the south-western part had few or no cases. In conclusion, this clinical epidemiological study is pioneering and shows that mycetoma is prevalent in certain parts of Sudan. This data obtained will support the design of measures to reduce the disease burden in the state. The survey procedures and protocols can be adopted for further studies in Sudan and beyond.

How can we better integrate the prevention, treatment, control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases with other health interventions? A systematic review

Background

Globally, about 1.7 billion people living in poverty are affected by one or more of a group of disabling, disfiguring and poverty-promoting conditions known as neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Major global health actors, like the WHO, have endorsed a shift from vertical to integrated NTD management.

Objective

This systematic review aimed to evaluate how integration is being conducted and how we can improve it.

Methods

PubMed, Medline, Cochrane library, Web of Science, Trip, Embase, Global Health and Google Scholar were searched from 1 April to 22 July 2020. We included peer-reviewed articles published between 1 January 2000 and 22 July 2020 in English.

Results

Database searches produced 24 565 studies, of which 35 articles met the inclusion criteria. Twenty of these articles were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Twenty articles were also published between 2015 and 2020. Literature revealed that NTDs have been integrated—among themselves; with water, sanitation and hygiene programmes; with vector control; with primary healthcare; with immunisation programmes; and with malaria management. Integrated mass drug administration for multiple NTDs was the most common method of integration. The three complex, yet common characteristics of successful integration were good governance, adequate financing and total community engagement.

Conclusion

The dataset identified integrated management of NTDs to be cost effective and potentially to increase treatment coverage. However, the identified modes of integration are not exclusive and are limited by the available literature. Nonetheless, integration should urgently be implemented, while considering the programmatic and sociopolitical context.

PROSPERO registration number

The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO number, CRD42020167358.

Modelling the spatial distribution of mycetoma in Sudan

BACKGROUND

Mycetoma is a neglected tropical disease that is reported worldwide and Sudan has the highest reported number of mycetoma infections across the globe. The incidence, prevalence and burden of mycetoma globally are not precisely known and its risk factors remain largely unelucidated.

METHODS

This study aimed to identify the environmental predictors of fungal and bacterial mycetoma in Sudan and to identify areas of the country where these niche predictors are met. Demographic and clinical data from confirmed mycetoma patients seen at the Mycetoma Research Centre from 1991 to 2018 were included in this study. Regression and machine learning techniques were used to model the relationships between mycetoma occurrence in Sudan and environmental predictors.

RESULTS

The strongest predictors of mycetoma occurrence were aridity, proximity to water, low soil calcium and sodium concentrations and the distribution of various species of thorny trees. The models predicted the occurrence of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma in the central and southeastern states of Sudan and along the Nile river valley and its tributaries.

CONCLUSION

Our results showed that the risk of mycetoma in Sudan varies geographically and is linked to identifiable environmental risk factors. Suitability maps are intended to guide health authorities, academic institutes and organisations involved in planning national scale surveys for early case detection and management, leading to better patient treatment, prevention and control of mycetoma.

Mapping of Podoconiosis Cases and Risk Factors in Kenya: A Nationwide Cross-sectional Study

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that is clinically distinguished from lymphatic filariasis (LF) because it is ascending and commonly bilateral but asymmetric. The disease is a result of a genetically determined inflammatory reaction to long-term exposure to mineral particles in irritant red clay soils derived mainly from volcanic soils. We conducted the first nationwide mapping of the prevalence and risk factors of podoconiosis in Kenya. We performed a population-based cross-sectional survey to determine the national prevalence of podoconiosis and included 6,228 individuals from 48 villages in 24 sub-counties across 15 counties. Participants answered a questionnaire about the history of symptoms compatible with podoconiosis, received a point-of-care antigen test, and underwent a physical examination if they had lymphedema. A confirmed case of podoconiosis was defined as a case in a resident of the study village who had lower limb bilateral and asymmetric lymphedema lasting more than 1 year, negative test results for Wuchereria bancrofti antigen, and other causes of lymphedema ruled out. Of all the individuals surveyed, 89 had lymphedema; of those, 16 of 6228 (0.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1-0.5) were confirmed to have podoconiosis. A high prevalence of podoconiosis was found in western (Siaya, 3.1%; Busia, 0.9%) and central (Meru, 1.1%) regions, and a low prevalence was observed in northern (Marsabit, 0.2%), eastern (Makueni, 0.2%), and coastal (Tana River, 0.1%) regions. The identified risk factors were age 56 years or older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.66; 95% CI, 2.32-13.83; P < 0.001) and rarely wearing shoes (aOR, 18.92; 95% CI, 4.55-78.71; P < 0.001). These results indicated that the podoconiosis prevalence is low and localized in Kenya; therefore, elimination is achievable if appropriate disease prevention, management, and behavioral strategies are promoted.

Podoconiosis - From known to unknown: Obstacles to tackle

Podoconiosis is a non-filarial and non-communicable disease leading to lymphedema of the lower limbs. Worldwide, 4 million individuals live with podoconiosis, which is accompanied by disability and painful intermittent acute inflammatory episodes that attribute to significant disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Different risk factors like contact with volcanic red clay soil, high altitude (above 1000 m), high seasonal rainfall (above 1000 mm/year) and occupation (e.g., subsistence farmer) are associated with the risk of podoconiosis. Although podoconiosis was described to be endemic in 32 countries in Africa, parts of Latin America and South East Asia, knowledge about related genetics, pathophysiology, immunology and especially the causing molecule(s) in the soil remain uncertain. Thus, podoconiosis can be considered as one of the most neglected diseases. This review provides an overview about this non-filarial related geochemical disease and aim to present perspectives and future directions that might be important for better understanding of the disease, prospect for point-of-care diagnosis, achieving protection and developing novel treatment strategies.

Podoconiosis: key priorities for research and implementation

Podoconiosis is a non-infectious tropical lymphoedema causing swelling of the lower legs. Podoconiosis is associated with stigma, depression and reduced productivity, resulting in significant socio-economic impacts for affected individuals, families and communities. It is caused by barefoot exposure to soils and affects disadvantaged populations. Evidence from the past 5 y suggests that podoconiosis is amenable to public health interventions, e.g. footwear and hygiene-based morbidity management, which reduce acute clinical episodes. Although much has been learned in recent years, advances in care for these patients and worldwide control requires further reliable and relevant research. To develop a comprehensive global control strategy, the following key research priorities are important: better understanding of the global burden of podoconiosis through extended worldwide mapping, development of new point-of-care diagnostic methods and approaches to define the presence of the environmental characteristics that contribute to the development of the condition, improving treatment through an increased understanding of the pathogenesis of dermal changes over time, improved understanding of optimal ways of providing patient care at the national level, including research to optimize behavioural change strategies, determine the optimum package of care and integrate approaches to deliver robust surveillance, monitoring and evaluation of control programmes.

Developing and validating a clinical algorithm for the diagnosis of podoconiosis

BACKGROUND

Difficulties in reliably diagnosing podoconiosis have severely limited the scale-up and uptake of the World Health Organization-recommended morbidity management and disability prevention interventions for affected people. We aimed to identify a set of clinical features that, combined into an algorithm, allow for diagnosis of podoconiosis.

METHODS

We identified 372 people with lymphoedema and administered a structured questionnaire on signs and symptoms associated with podoconiosis and other potential causes of lymphoedema in northern Ethiopia. All individuals were tested for Wuchereria bancrofti-specific immunoglobulin G4 in the field using Wb123.

RESULTS

Based on expert diagnosis, 344 (92.5%) of the 372 participants had podoconiosis. The rest had lymphoedema due to other aetiologies. The best-performing set of symptoms and signs was the presence of moss on the lower legs and a family history of leg swelling, plus the absence of current or previous leprosy, plus the absence of swelling in the groin, plus the absence of chronic illness (such as diabetes mellitus or heart or kidney diseases). The overall sensitivity of the algorithm was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 87.6 to 94.4) and specificity was 95% (95% CI 85.45 to 100).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a clinical algorithm of clinical history and physical examination that could be used in areas suspected or endemic for podoconiosis. Use of this algorithm should enable earlier identification of podoconiosis cases and scale-up of interventions.

Clinical, haematological and biochemical profiling of podoconiosis lymphoedema patients prior to their involvement in a clinical trial in the Northwest Region of Cameroon

BACKGROUND

Prior to carrying out clinical trials, it is important to assess the health status of the study participants to be able to interpret subsequent changes that may be related to the effects of the treatments during the follow-up of patients. This study presents the clinical, haematological and biochemical profiles of podoconiosis patients prior to their involvement in the PodoLEDoxy clinical trial.

METHODS

All lower limb lymphoedema patients visiting the centre were screened and a podoconiosis diagnosis was based on clinical manifestation and detailed medical history. Patients who satisfied the eligibility criteria were enrolled in the study and their demographic data, vital signs and medical history were collected followed by biochemical and haematological examinations.

RESULTS

Of the 222 participants enrolled in the study, 55.4% and 41.4% had either stage 3 or 2 podoconiosis as their highest stages, respectively. On physical examination, gastritis (46%) and poor vision (2.7%) were the most prevalent health issues identified. The majority of haematological and biochemical values were within the normal range except for mean platelet volume (47.7%), plateletcrit (58.1%), platelet distribution width (66.2%), mean corpuscular volume (67.6%) and red cell distribution width-standard deviation (79.3%), where >40% of the study participants had values out of the normal.

CONCLUSION

The clinical, haematological and biochemical profiles of the study participants were largely within the normal range except for certain haematological parameters that might be worth investigating.

The health and economic burden of podoconiosis in Ethiopia

Background

Podoconiosis is one of the leading causes of lymphoedema-related morbidity in low-income settings, but little is known about the scale of its health and economic impact. This information is required to inform control programme planning and policy. In this study, we estimated the health and economic burden of podoconiosis in Ethiopia.

Methods

We developed a model to estimate the health burden attributed to podoconiosis in terms of the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the economic burden. We estimated the economic burden by quantifying the treatment and morbidity-management costs incurred by the healthcare system in managing clinical cases, patients' out-of-pocket costs and their productivity costs.

Results

In 2017, there were 1.5 million cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia, which corresponds to 172 073 DALYs or 182 per 100 000 people. The total economic burden of podoconiosis in Ethiopia is estimated to be US$213.2 million annually and 91.1% of this resulted from productivity costs. The average economic burden per podoconiosis case was US$136.9.

Conclusions

The national cost of podoconiosis is formidable. If control measures are scaled up and the morbidity burden reduced, this will lead to Ethiopia saving millions of dollars. Our estimates provide important benchmark economic costs to programme planners, policymakers and donors for resource allocation and priority setting.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Baseline Mapping of Neglected Tropical Diseases in Africa: The Accelerated WHO/AFRO Mapping Project

Mapping is a prerequisite for effective implementation of interventions against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Before the accelerated World Health Organization (WHO)/Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) NTD Mapping Project was initiated in 2014, mapping efforts in many countries were frequently carried out in an ad hoc and nonstandardized fashion. In 2013, there were at least 2,200 different districts (of the 4,851 districts in the WHO African region) that still required mapping, and in many of these districts, more than one disease needed to be mapped. During its 3-year duration from January 2014 through the end of 2016, the project carried out mapping surveys for one or more NTDs in at least 2,500 districts in 37 African countries. At the end of 2016, most (90%) of the 4,851 districts had completed the WHO-required mapping surveys for the five targeted Preventive Chemotherapy (PC)-NTDs, and the impact of this accelerated WHO/AFRO NTD Mapping Project proved to be much greater than just the detailed mapping results themselves. Indeed, the AFRO Mapping Project dramatically energized and empowered national NTD programs, attracted donor support for expanding these programs, and developed both a robust NTD mapping database and data portal. By clarifying the prevalence and burden of NTDs, the project provided not only the metrics and technical framework for guiding and tracking program implementation and success but also the research opportunities for developing improved diagnostic and epidemiologic sampling tools for all 5 PC-NTDs—lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis, and trachoma.

The Mbam drainage system and onchocerciasis transmission post ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) campaign, Cameroon

Background

The impact of large scale Mass Drug Adminstration (MDA) of ivermectin on active onchocerciasis transmission by Simulium damnosum, which transmits the parasite O. volvulus is of great importance for onchocerciasis control programmes. We investigated in the Mbam river system area, the impact of MDA of ivermectin on entomological indices and also verify if there are river system factors that could have favoured the transmission of onchocerciasis in this area and contribute to the persistence of disease. We compared three independent techniques to detect Onchocerca larvae in blackflies and also analyzed the river system within 9 months post-MDA of ivermectin.

Method

Simulium flies were captured before and after 1, 3, 6 and 9months of ivermectin-MDA. The biting rate was determined and 41% of the flies dissected while the rest were grouped into pools of 100 flies for DNA extraction. The extracted DNA was then subjected to O-150 LAMP and real-time PCR for the detection of infection by Onchocerca species using pool screening. The river system was analysed and the water discharge compared between rainy and dry seasons.

Principal findings

We used human landing collection method (previously called human bait) to collect 22,274 adult female Simulium flies from Mbam River System. Of this number, 9,134 were dissected while 129 pools constituted for molecular screening. Overall biting and parous rates of 1113 flies/man/day and 24.7%, respectively, were observed. All diagnostic techniques detected similar rates of O. volvulus infection (P = 0.9252) and infectivity (P = 0.4825) at all monitoring time points. Onchocerca ochengi larvae were only detected in 2 of the 129 pools. Analysis of the river drainage revealed two hydroelectric dams constructed on the tributaries of the Mbam river were the key contributing factor to the high-water discharge during both rainy and dry seasons.

Conclusion

Results from fly dissection (Microscopy), real-time PCR and LAMP revealed the same trends pre- and post-MDA. The infection rate with animal Onchocerca sp was exceptionally low. The dense river system generate important breeding sites that govern the abundance of Simulium during both dry and rainy seasons.

The presence of parasite strains that respond sub-optimally to an approved drug, favourable breeding sites for the vector and infected individual in an area, will surely provide conditions for continuous and persistent transmission of a disease despite a long-term control intervention. We investigated the impact of ivermectin on entomological indices within 9 months following a large-scale MDA in the Mbam river drainage. The river system factors that could have favoured abundance vector breeding and contribute to the persistence of disease transmission were also examined within the study period. We observed vector abundance and high entomological indices throughout the study period following ivermectin MDA. We also observed high water discharge along the main river of the drainage basin in both the rainy and dry seasons and this is due to the presence of two dams constructed upstream at Bamendjing and Mape to regularize the course of river Sanaga in view of generating hydroelectric power at Edea. Factors favouring continuous and persistent disease transmission are present in this drainage basin despite over 20 years of annual IVM-MDA. There is need for alternative control strategy in order to accelerate the fight against onchocerciasis in the area.

Validation of loop-mediated isothermal amplification for the detection of Loa loa infection in Chrysops spp in experimental and natural field conditions

BACKGROUND

The mass drug administration of ivermectin for onchocerciasis control has contributed to a significant drop in Loa loa microfilaria loads in humans that has, in turn, led to reduction of infection levels in Chrysops vectors. Accurate parasite detection is essential for assessing loiasis transmission as it provides a potential alternative or indirect strategy for addressing the problem of co-endemic loiasis and lymphatic filariasis through the Onchocerciasis Elimination Programme and it further reflects the true magnitude of the loiasis problem as excess human mortality has been reported to be associated with the disease. Although microscopy is the gold standard for detecting the infection, the sensitivity of this method is compromised when the intensity of infection is low. The loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay of parasite DNA is an alternative method for detecting infection which offers operational simplicity, rapidity and versatility of visual readout options. The aim of this study was to validate the Loa loa LAMP assay for the detection of infected Chrysops spp. under experimental and natural field conditions.

METHODS

Two sets of 18 flies were fed on volunteers with either a low (< 10 mf/ml) or high (> 30,000mf/ml) microfilarial load. The fed flies were maintained under laboratory conditions for 14 days and then analysed using LAMP for the detection of L. loa infection. In addition, a total of 9270 flies were collected from the north-west, east, and south-west regions (SW 1 and 2) of Cameroon using sweep nets and subjected to microscopy (7841 flies) and LAMP (1291 flies plus 138 nulliparous flies) analyses.

RESULTS

The LAMP assay successfully detected parasites in Chrysops fed on volunteers with both low and high microfilariaemic loads. Field validation and surveillance studies revealed LAMP-based infection rates ranging from 0.5 to 31.6%, with the lowest levels in SW 2 and the highest infection rates in SW 1. The LAMP assay detected significantly higher infection rates than microscopy in four of the five study sites.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated the potential of LAMP as a simple surveillance tool. It was found to be more sensitive than microscopy for the detection of experimental and natural L. loa infections in Chrysops vectors.

African regional progress and status of the programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis: 2000-2020

To eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) by 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has launched a campaign against the disease. Since the launch in 2000, significant progress has been made to achieve this ambitious goal. In this article we review the progress and status of the LF programme in Africa through the WHO neglected tropical diseases preventive chemotherapy databank, the Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN) portal and other publications. In the African Region there are 35 countries endemic for LF. The Gambia was reclassified as not requiring preventive chemotherapy in 2015, while Togo and Malawi eliminated LF as a public health problem in 2017 and 2020, respectively. Cameroon discontinued mass drug administration (MDA) and transitioned to post-MDA surveillance to validate elimination. The trajectory of coverage continues to accelerate; treatment coverage increased from 0.1% in 2000 to 62.1% in 2018. Geographical coverage has also significantly increased, from 62.7% in 2015 to 78.5% in 2018. In 2019, 23 of 31 countries requiring MDA achieved 100% geographic coverage. Although much remains to be done, morbidity management and disability prevention services have steadily increased in recent years. Vector control interventions conducted by other programmes, particularly malaria vector control, have had a profound effect in stopping transmission in some endemic countries in the region. In conclusion, significant progress has been made in the LF programme in the region while we identify the key remaining challenges in achieving an Africa free of LF.

Developing consensus of evidence to target case finding surveys for podoconiosis: a potentially forgotten disease in India

BACKGROUND

Podoconiosis is a non-infectious geochemical lymphoedema of the lower legs associated with a significant burden of morbidity. There are historical reports of podoconiosis in India, but its current endemicity status is uncertain. In this investigation we aimed to prioritise the selection of districts for pilot mapping of podoconiosis in India.

METHODS

Through a consultative workshop bringing together expert opinion on podoconiosis with public health and NTDs in India, we developed a framework for the prioritisation of pilot areas. The four criteria for prioritisation were predicted environmental suitability for podoconiosis, higher relative poverty, occurrence of lymphoedema cases detected by the state health authorities and absence of morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) services provided by the National Programme for Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis.

RESULTS

Environmental suitability for podoconiosis in India was predicted to be widespread, particularly in the mountainous east and hilly southwest of the country. Most of the districts with higher levels of poverty were in the central east and central west. Of 286 districts delineated by state representatives, lymphoedema was known to the health system in 189 districts and not recorded in 80. Information on MMDP services was unavailable for many districts, but 169 were known not to provide such services. We identified 35 districts across the country as high priority for mapping based on these criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate widespread presence of conditions associated with podoconiosis in India, including areas with known lymphoedema cases and without MMDP services. This work is intended to support a rational approach to surveying for an unrecognised, geographically focal, chronic disease in India, with a view to scaling up to inform a national strategy if required.

Linking soils and human health: geospatial analysis of ground-sampled soil data in relation to community-level podoconiosis data in North West Cameroon

Background

Podoconiosis is a form of leg swelling, which arises when individuals are exposed over time to red clay soil formed from alkaline volcanic rock. The exact causal agent of the disease is unknown. This study investigates associations between podoconiosis disease data and ground-sampled soil data from North West Cameroon.

Methods

The mineralogy and elemental concentrations were measured in the soil samples and the data were spatially interpolated. Mean soil values were calculated from a 3 km buffer region around the prevalence data points to perform statistical analysis. Analysis included Spearman's rho correlation, binary logistic regression and principal component analysis (PCA).

Results

Six elements, barium, beryllium, potassium, rubidium, strontium and thallium, as well as two minerals, potassium feldspar and quartz, were identified as statistically related to podoconiosis. PCA did not show distinct separation between the spatial locations with or without recorded cases of podoconiosis, indicating that other factors such as shoe-wearing behaviour and genetics may significantly influence podoconiosis occurrence and prevalence in North West Cameroon.

Conclusion

Several soil variables were statistically significantly related to podoconiosis. To further the current study, future investigations will look at the inflammatory pathway response of cells after exposure to these variables.

A cross-sectional study to evaluate depression and quality of life among patients with lymphoedema due to podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis and leprosy

BACKGROUND

Podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis (LF) and leprosy are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) that cause lymphoedema. When left untreated, they lead to substantial disability. This study determined the quality of life (QOL) and depression associated with lymphoedema in patients with podoconiosis, LF and leprosy. The study was conducted in northwestern Ethiopia.

METHODS

This baseline cross-sectional study, nested within an interventional, non-comparative, longitudinal study, included patients with lymphoedema. Depression and QOL were assessed using versions of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire and Dermatologic Life Quality Index (DLQI), respectively, that had been translated into Amharic and validated. Factors associated with depression and QOL were assessed using multivariate linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 251 patients with lymphoedema included in the study, 119 (47.4%) had moderate to severe depression and overall QOL was poor (mean±standard deviation [SD] DLQI score: 11.4±4.2). Disability was significantly associated with depression (β=0.26 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.19 to 0.33]). Currently receiving treatment (β=-3.05 [95% CI -5.25 to -0.85), disability (β=-0.08 [95% CI -0.15 to -0.01]) and social support (moderate support: β=-2.27 [95% CI -3.66 to -0.89] and strong support: β=-2.87 [95% CI -5.35 to -0.38]) were significantly associated with better QOL.

CONCLUSION

High levels of depression and low QOL were found among patients with lymphoedema due the three NTDs in Ethiopia.

High levels of depressive symptoms among people with lower limb lymphoedema in Rwanda: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There is a growing body of evidence that mental distress and disorder are common among people with lower limb lymphoedema, although no research has been conducted on this subject in Rwanda.

METHODS

This research was embedded within a mapping study to determine the national prevalence and geographical distribution of podoconiosis in Rwanda. Using a cluster sampling design, adult members of households within 80 randomly selected sectors in all 30 districts of Rwanda were first screened and 1143 patients were diagnosed with either podoconiosis (n=914) or lower limb lymphoedema of another cause (n=229). These 1143 participants completed the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-9 to establish the prevalence of depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Overall, 68.5% of participants reported depressive symptoms- 34.3% had mild depressive symptoms, 24.2% had moderate, 8.8% moderately severe and 1.2% severe depressive symptoms. The mean PHQ-9 score was 7.39 (SD=5.29) out of a possible 0 (no depression) to 27 (severe depression). Linear regression showed unemployment to be a consistently strong predictor of depressive symptoms; the other predictors were region (province), type of lymphoedema and, for those with podoconiosis, female gender, marital status and disease stage.

CONCLUSIONS

Levels of depressive symptoms were very high among people with lower limb lymphoedema in Rwanda, which should be addressed through holistic morbidity management and disability prevention services that integrate mental health, psychosocial and economic interventions alongside physical care.

Malaria epidemiology and stratification of incidence in the malaria elimination setting in Harari Region, Eastern Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has shown notable progress in reducing the burden of malaria over the past two decades. Because of this progress, the country has shifted efforts from control to elimination of malaria. This study was conducted to analyse the malaria epidemiology and stratification of incidence in the malaria elimination setting in eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted to analyse the epidemiology of malaria by reviewing the district health office data from 2013 to 2019 in Harari Region. In addition, three years of sub-district level malaria data were used to stratify the malaria transmission intensity. Malaria interventions (Long-lasting insecticidal nets [LLIN] and indoor residual spraying [IRS]) employed were reviewed to analyse the intervention coverage at the Regional level. Descriptive statistics were used to show the malaria transmission in terms of years, season and species of the malaria parasite. Incidence rate per 1000 population and death rate per 1 000 000 population at risk were computed using the total population of each year.

Results

In the Harari Region, malaria incidence showed a more pronounced declining trend from 2017 to 2019. Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax and mixed infections accounted for 69.2%, 30.6% and 0.2% of the cases, respectively. There was an increment in malaria intervention coverage and improved malaria diagnosis. In the year 2019 the coverage of LLIN and IRS in the Region were 93.4% and 85.1% respectively. The annual malaria incidence rate dropped from 42.9 cases per 1000 population in 2013 to 6.7 cases per 1000 population in 2019. Malaria-related deaths decreased from 4.7 deaths per 1 000 000 people annually in 2013 to zero, and there have been no deaths reported since 2015. The malaria risk appears to be heterogeneous and varies between districts. A higher number of malaria cases were recorded in Erer and Jenella districts, which constitute 62% of the cases in the Region. According to the sub-district level malaria stratification, there was shrinkage in the malaria transmission map and about 70% of the sub-districts have achieved elimination targets.

Conclusions

In the Harari Region, malaria morbidity and mortality have been significantly declined. Thus, if this achievement is sustained and scaling-up of the existing malaria prevention and control strategies by focusing on those populations living in the higher malaria transmission districts and sub-districts, planning of malaria elimination from the study area might be feasible.

EnDPoINT: protocol for an implementation research study to integrate a holistic package of physical health, mental health and psychosocial care for podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis and leprosy into routine health services in Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) causing lower limb lymphoedema such as podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis (LF) and leprosy are common in Ethiopia. Routine health services for morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) of lymphoedema caused by these conditions are still lacking, even though it imposes a huge burden on affected individuals and their communities in terms of physical and mental health, and psychosocial and economic outcomes. This calls for an integrated, holistic approach to MMDP across these three diseases.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The 'Excellence in Disability Prevention Integrated across NTDs' (EnDPoINT) implementation research study aims to assess the integration and scale-up of a holistic package of care-including physical health, mental health and psychosocial care-into routine health services for people with lymphoedema caused by podoconiosis, LF and leprosy in selected districts in Awi zone in the North-West of Ethiopia. The study is being carried out over three phases using a wide range of mixed methodologies. Phase 1 involves the development of a comprehensive holistic care package and strategies for its integration into the routine health services across the three diseases, and to examine the factors that influence integration and the roles of key health system actors. Phase 2 involves a pilot study conducted in one subdistrict in Awi zone, to establish the care package's adoption, feasibility, acceptability, fidelity, potential effectiveness, its readiness for scale-up, costs of the interventions and the suitability of the training and training materials. Phase 3 involves scale-up of the care package in three whole districts, as well as its evaluation in regard to coverage, implementation, clinical (physical health, mental health and psychosocial) and economic outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval for the study has been obtained in the UK and Ethiopia. The results will be disseminated through publications in scientific journals, conference presentations, policy briefs and workshops.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

METHODS

Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

RESULTS

For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.

RESULTS

Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.

CONCLUSIONS

While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Predicting the environmental suitability and population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. The geographical distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Africa are uncertain. We applied statistical modelling to the most comprehensive database compiled to date to predict the environmental suitability of podoconiosis in the African continent. By combining climate and environmental data and overlaying population figures, we predicted the environmental suitability and human population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa. Environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in 29 African countries. In the year 2020, the total population in areas suitable for podoconiosis is estimated at 114.5 million people, (95% uncertainty interval: 109.4-123.9) with 16.9 million in areas suitable for both lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Of the total 5,712 implementation units (typically second administrative-level units, such as districts) defined by the World Health Organization in Africa, 1,655 (29.0%) were found to be environmentally suitable for podoconiosis. The majority of implementation units with high environmental suitability are located in Angola (80, 4.8%), Cameroon (170, 10.3%), the DRC (244, 14.7%), Ethiopia (495, 29.9%), Kenya (217, 13.1%), Uganda (116, 7.0%) and Tanzania (112, 6.8%). Of the 1,655 environmentally suitable implementation units, 960 (58.0%) require more detailed community-level mapping. Our estimates provide key evidence of the population at risk and geographical extent of podoconiosis in Africa, which will help decision-makers to better plan more integrated intervention programmes.

Health system capacity for tuberculosis care in Ethiopia: evidence from national representative survey

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate the tuberculosis (TB) health system capacity and its variations by location and types of health facilities in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

We used the Service Provision Assessment plus (SPA+) survey data that were collected in 2014 in all hospitals and randomly selected health centers and private facilities in all regions of Ethiopia. We assessed structural, process and overall health system capacity based on the Donabedian quality of care model. Multiple linear regression and spatial analysis were done to assess TB capacity score variation across regions.

SETTING

The study included 873 public and private health facilities all over Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

None.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

None.

RESULTS

A total of 873 health facilities were included in the analysis. The overall TB care capacity score was 76.7%, 55.9% and 37.8% in public hospitals, health centers and private facilities, respectively. The health system capacity score for TB was higher in the urban (60.4%) facilities compared to that of the rural (50.0%) facilities (β = 8.0, 95% CI: 4.4, 11.6). Health centers (β = -16.2, 95% CI: -20.0, -12.3) and private health facilities (β = -38.3, 95% CI: -42.4, -35.1) had lower TB care capacity score than hospitals. Overall TB care capacity score were lower in Western and Southwestern Ethiopia and in Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The health system capacity score for TB care in Ethiopia varied across regions. Health system capacity improvement interventions should focus on the private sectors and health facilities in the rural and remote areas to ensure equity and improve quality of care.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping lymphatic filariasis in Loa loa endemic health districts naïve for ivermectin mass administration and situated in the forested zone of Cameroon

BACKGROUND

The control of lymphatic filariasis (LF) caused by Wuchereria bancrofti in the Central African Region has been hampered by the presence of Loa loa due to severe adverse events that arise in the treatment with ivermectin. The immunochromatographic test (ICT) cards used for mapping LF demonstrated cross-reactivity with L. loa and posed the problem of delineating the LF map. To verify LF endemicity in forest areas of Cameroon where mass drug administration (MDA) has not been ongoing, we used the recently developed strategy that combined serology, microscopy and molecular techniques.

METHODS

This study was carried out in 124 communities in 31 health districts (HDs) where L. loa is present. At least 125 persons per site were screened. Diurnal blood samples were investigated for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) by FTS and for L. loa microfilariae (mf) using TBF. FTS positive individuals were further subjected to night blood collection for detecting W. bancrofti. qPCR was used to detect DNA of the parasites.

RESULTS

Overall, 14,446 individuals took part in this study, 233 participants tested positive with FTS in 29 HDs, with positivity rates ranging from 0.0 to 8.2%. No W. bancrofti mf was found in the night blood of any individuals but L. loa mf were found in both day and night blood of participants who were FTS positive. Also, qPCR revealed that no W. bancrofti but L.loa DNA was found with dry bloodspot. Positive FTS results were strongly associated with high L. loa mf load. Similarly, a strong positive association was observed between FTS positivity and L loa prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a combination of parasitological and molecular tools, we were unable to find evidence of W. bancrofti presence in the 31 HDs, but L. loa instead. Therefore, LF is not endemic and LF MDA is not required in these districts.

Measuring the spatial heterogeneity on the reduction of vaginal fistula burden in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2016

Vaginal fistula is a shattering maternal complication characterized by an anomalous opening between the bladder and/or rectum and vagina resulting in continuous leakage of urine or stool. Although prevalent in Ethiopia, its magnitude and distribution is not well studied. We used statistical mapping models using 2005 and 2016 Ethiopia Demographic Health Surveys data combined with a suite of potential risk factors to estimate the burden of vaginal fistula among women of childbearing age. The estimated number of women of childbearing age with lifetime and untreated vaginal fistula in 2016 were 72,533 (95% CI 38,235-124,103) and 31,961 (95% CI 11,596-70,309) respectively. These figures show reduction from the 2005 estimates: 98,098 (95% CI 49,819-170,737) lifetime and 59,114 (95% CI 26,580-118,158) untreated cases of vaginal fistula. The number of districts having more than 200 untreated cases declined drastically from 54 in 2005 to 6 in 2016. Our results show a significant subnational variation in the burden of vaginal fistula. Overall, between 2005 and 2016 there was substantial reduction in the prevalence of vaginal fistula in Ethiopia. Our results help guide local level tracking, planning, spatial targeting of resources and implementation of interventions against vaginal fistula.

Mapping the global distribution of podoconiosis: Applying an evidence consensus approach

Background

Podoconiosis is a type of elephantiasis characterised by swelling of the lower legs. It is often confused with other causes of tropical lymphedema and its global distribution is uncertain. Here we synthesise the available information on the presence of podoconiosis to produce evidence consensus maps of its global geographical distribution.

Methods and findings

We systematically searched available data on podoconiosis in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception, updated to 10 May, 2019, and identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used the number of cases reported in studies and prevalence data with geographical locations. We then developed an index to assess evidence quality and reliability, assigning each country an evidence consensus score. Using these summary scores, we then developed a contemporary global map of national-level podoconiosis status.

There is evidence of podoconiosis in 17 countries (12 in Africa, three in Latin America, and two in Asia) and consensus on presence in six countries (all in Africa). We have identified countries where surveillance is required to further define the presence or absence of podoconiosis. We have highlighted areas where evidence is currently insufficient or conflicting, and from which more evidence is needed.

Conclusion

The global distribution of podoconiosis is not clearly known; the disease extent and limits provided here inform the best contemporary map of the distribution of podoconiosis globally from available data. These results help identify surveillance needs, direct future mapping activities, and inform prevention plans and burden estimation of podoconiosis.

The global distribution of podoconiosis is uncertain. With our current understanding of its distribution still incomplete, many of the countries suspected to be endemic for podoconiosis are based on expert opinion and lack published evidence of confirmed cases. In this study, we used multiple data sources and health metrics to identify countries with presence and absence of podoconiosis with appropriate uncertainties. After assembling a database of different evidence types we constructed a weighted score for each country called ‘evidence consensus scores’. We used these scores to measure the certainty of the presence and absence of podoconiosis. The maps produced help to identify evidence gaps and uncertainties in the current global distribution of podoconiosis. Countries with evidence of podoconiosis are mostly clustered in Africa, and a few in Asia and Latin America. We have also identified countries with indeterminate status on the presence and absences of podoconiosis. These countries are characterised by weak health systems and multiple co-endemic diseases causing lower leg swelling, potentially leading to misdiagnosis of podoconiosis. Given these challenges, we recommend intensified disease surveillance and active case searching be implemented in areas where evidence is lacking.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

The impact of acute adenolymphangitis in podoconiosis on caregivers: A case study in Wayu Tuka woreda, Oromia, Western Ethiopia. 'If she was healthy, I would be free.'

Background

Podoconiosis, also known as mossy foot or endemic non-filarial elephantiasis, is a preventable form of lower-leg lymphoedema caused by prolonged (typically barefoot) exposure to soil derived from volcanic rocks. Acute adenolymphangitis (also called ‘acute attack’) is a serious complication of podoconiosis resulting in significant symptoms and worsening disability. Despite the well-known morbidity associated with podoconiosis, to date there have been no studies looking at the impact, or burden, of podoconiosis on caregivers. This study explored the experiences and impact of acute attacks on the caregivers of those with podoconiosis in one endemic district of Ethiopia.

Methods/Principal findings

This qualitative study was based in Wayu Tuka woreda (district), Oromia, Western Ethiopia. 27 semi-structured interviews of those with podoconiosis and their caregivers were conducted in June 2018. Here we report the findings from the caregiver’s interviews. Data were analysed using NVivo 12. Directed content analysis, a qualitative approach related to thematic analysis, was used to analyse the results. This study highlights a previously unreported impact of acute attacks on the caregivers of those affected by podoconiosis. The findings demonstrate the significant social and financial pressures placed on podoconiosis-affected families which are exacerbated during acute attacks. This study also highlighted the emotional burden experienced by caregivers, the range of care activities placed on them and the limited support available.

Conclusions

This study found a significant impact on the caregivers of those with podoconiosis, especially during acute attacks, in Wayu Tuka woreda. It also highlighted the limited support available to caregivers. Further research is needed to understand whether this impact applies to podoconiosis caregivers across Ethiopia, and beyond, and to establish if there are wider implications of this important consequence of podoconiosis, for example on the economy and caregivers’ mental and physical health.

Podoconiosis is a foot condition, common in the highlands of Ethiopia, caused by exposure to volcanic soil. It can be prevented by wearing shoes and adhering to foot hygiene practices. Podoconiosis causes swelling of the lower legs and is a disabling and stigmatised condition. It is made worse by ‘acute attacks’, during which the leg becomes painful, swollen and red. Often the person affected cannot work and is bedbound during these episodes. This study identified a previously unreported burden on the caregivers of those with podoconiosis during acute attacks in one endemic district of rural Ethiopia. Specifically, we identified a significant social and financial pressure placed on podoconiosis-affected families in meeting healthcare costs, covering daily expenses such as children’s education costs and progressing within their communities. This study also highlighted the emotional burden experienced by caregivers, the range of care activities placed on caregivers and the limited support available. These findings warrant further research in other contexts but highlight an important wider social consequence of podoconiosis.