Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Bladder height to width ratio as a surrogate marker for non-physiological storage pressures in children with spinal dysraphism

INTRODUCTION

Spinal dysraphism is the most frequent cause of neurogenic bladder. Urodynamic study (UDS) is an important component of the follow-up of a child with neurogenic bladder. However, it suffers from a lack of widespread availability and is further hampered by technical difficulties and difficulty in its interpretation in children. A neurogenic bladder often appears vertically elongated; only limited and sparse literature is available regarding objectively defining the bladder shape and the urodynamic parameters in the cohort.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of the bladder's height-to-width ratio (HWR) on cystogram as a screening tool for identifying "non-physiological" bladder pressures in children with spinal dysraphism. A prospective study was undertaken to evaluate children operated for spinal dysraphism. Cystogram, ultrasonography and UDS evaluation were performed. HWR was calculated by the ratio of the maximum height to the maximum bladder width at maximum cystometric capacity (MCC), where MCC was calculated using standard Koff's formula, given by (age in years + 2) *30 ml in children more than one year and weight *7 ml for infants. The children were categorised into groups based on maximum detrusor pressure (MDP) into two groups (MDP ≥ 30 cmH2O and MDP < 30 cmH2O). A receiver-operative characteristic curve was constructed to analyse the sensitivity and specificity of HWR in predicting the MDP.

RESULTS

A total of 53 children, operated for spinal dysraphism, met the study criteria during the study period, from March 2021 to September 2022. The median age of children was 4 years (IQR-3-5.5 years). The HWR ratio was compared between the two groups and was significantly higher for the non-physiological pressure bladders than for physiological pressure bladders (mean of 1.55 vs 1.26, p = 0.001). On evaluating the sensitivity and specificity of HWR for discerning children with non-physiological bladder pressures were 87.5% and 48.28%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.781, with a cut-off value of 1.3.

DISCUSSION

We attempted to evaluate the HWR based on bladder shape objectively. We demonstrated a moderate correlation between the bladder shape and the bladder pressures. An HWR of 1.3 or higher could be significant for identifying a non-physiological bladder storage pressure.

CONCLUSION

The height to width ratio of the bladder on cystogram is a useful tool as a surrogate marker for non-physiological storage pressures in bladders of children with spinal dysraphism.

Conversion of locally available materials to biochar and activated carbon for drinking water treatment

For environmental sustainability and to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs), drinking water treatment must be done at a reasonable cost with minimal environmental impact. Therefore, treating contaminated drinking water requires materials and approaches that are inexpensive, produced locally, and effortlessly. Hence, locally available materials and their derivatives, such as biochar (BC) and activated carbon (AC) were investigated thoroughly. Several researchers and their findings show that the application of locally accessible materials and their derivatives are capable of the adsorptive removal of organic and inorganic contaminants from drinking water. The application of locally available materials such as lignocellulosic materials/waste and its thermo-chemically derived products, including BC and AC were found effective in the treatment of contaminated drinking water. Thus, this review aims to thoroughly examine the latest developments in the use of locally accessible feedstocks for tailoring BC and AC, as well as their features and applications in the treatment of drinking water. We attempted to explain facts related to the potential mechanisms of BC and AC, such as complexation, co-precipitation, electrostatic interaction, and ion exchange to treat water, thereby achieving a risk-free remediation approach to polluted water. Additionally, this research offers guidance on creating efficient household treatment units based on the health risks associated with customized adsorbents and cost-benefit analyses. Lastly, this review work discusses the current obstacles for using locally accessible materials and their thermo-chemically produced by-products to purify drinking water, as well as the necessity for technological interventions.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Can adoption of climate resilient management practices achieve carbon neutrality in traditional green revolution states of Punjab and Haryana?

Decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhancing soil carbon (C) sequestration in cropland are necessary to achieve carbon neutrality at national scale. The major objective of this study is to quantify the GHG mitigation potential of adopted climate resilient (CR) practices in CR villages using Ex-ACT tool developed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Intensively cultivated area of Punjab and Haryana was selected for carrying out this study. In both the states, villages were selected by considering the climate for past 30 years. In the selected villages, a set of CR practices were implemented in annuals, perennials, irrigated rice, fertilizer use, land use change and livestock and quantified the GHG mitigation potential in these villages for next twenty years. The tool predicted that the CR practices adopted were successful in enhancing the overall sink (carbon balance) in all the study villages. The villages of Punjab had recorded higher mitigation potential as compared to the villages of Haryana. The overall sink potential in these villages ranged from -354 to -38309 Mg CO₂-eq. The change in sink potential varied from 3.16 to 112% with lowest in Radauri and highest in Badhauchhi kalan village. The sink potential got doubled in Badhauchhi kalan village due to stopping rice straw burning and increase in area under perennials by 25%. The source potential varied from 6.33 to -7.44% across the study villages. Even with the implementation of NICRA, there was increase in source by 5.58 and 6.33% in Killi Nihal Singh Wala and Radauri due to irrigated rice, land use change and livestock. Majorly, rice straw burning was seen in most of the study villages, yet, with proper residue management and adoption of CR practices (mainly intermittent flooding) in rice cultivation resulted in emissions reduction up to 5-26% with enhanced productivity up to 15-18%, which can be considered for scaling up. Fertilizer management reduced the emissions by average of 13% across the study villages. Farm gate emission intensity per ton of milk and rice recorded highest emission intensity compared to annuals and perennials suggesting strict implementation of CR practices in rice cultivation and livestock sector. Implementation and scaling up of CR practices could potentially reduce the emissions and make the village C negative in intensive rice-wheat production system.

Pest scenario of Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) on pigeonpea during future climate change periods under RCP based projections in India

Gram pod borer, Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) is the major insect pest of pigeonpea and prediction of number of generations (no. of gen.) and generation time (gen. time) using growing degree days (GDD) approach during three future climate change periods viz., Near (NP), Distant (DP) and Far Distant (FDP) periods at eleven major pigeonpea growing locations of India was attempted. Multi-model ensemble of Maximum (Tmax) and Minimum (Tmin) temperature data of four Representative Concentration Pathways viz., RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 of Coupled Model Inter comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models was adopted here. The increase in projected Tmax and Tmin are significant during 3 climate change periods (CCPs) viz., the NP, DP and FDP over base line (BL) period under four RCP scenarios at all locations and would be higher (4.7-5.1 °C) in RCP 8.5 and in FDP. More number of annual (10-17) and seasonal (5-8) gens. are expected to occur with greater percent increase in FDP (8 to 38%) over base line followed by DP (7 to 22%) and NP (5to 10%) periods with shortened annual gen. time (4 to 27%) across 4 RCPs. The reduction of crop duration was substantial in short, medium and long duration pigeonpeas at all locations across 4 RCPs and 3 CCPs. The seasonal no.of gen. is expected to increase (5 to 35%) with shortened gen. time (4 to 26%) even with reduced crop duration across DP and FDP climate periods of 6.0 and 8.5 RCPs in LD pigeonpea. More no. of gen. of H. armigera with reduced gen. time are expected to occur at Ludhiana, Coimbatore, Mohanpur, Warangal and Akola locations over BL period in 4 RCPs when normal duration of pigeonpeas is considered. Geographical location (66 to 72%), climate period (11 to 19%), RCPs (5-7%) and their interaction (0.04-1%) is vital and together explained more than 90% of the total variation in future pest scenario. The findings indicate that the incidence of H. armigera would be higher on pigeonpea during ensuing CCPs in India under global warming context.

Nutraceutical approaches to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): A position paper from the International Lipid Expert Panel (ILEP)

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) is a common condition affecting around 10-25% of the general adult population, 15% of children, and even > 50% of individuals who have type 2 diabetes mellitus. It is a major cause of liver-related morbidity, and cardiovascular (CV) mortality is a common cause of death. In addition to being the initial step of irreversible alterations of the liver parenchyma causing cirrhosis, about 1/6 of those who develop NASH are at risk also developing CV disease (CVD). More recently the acronym MAFLD (Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease) has been preferred by many European and US specialists, providing a clearer message on the metabolic etiology of the disease. The suggestions for the management of NAFLD are like those recommended by guidelines for CVD prevention. In this context, the general approach is to prescribe physical activity and dietary changes the effect weight loss. Lifestyle change in the NAFLD patient has been supplemented in some by the use of nutraceuticals, but the evidence based for these remains uncertain. The aim of this Position Paper was to summarize the clinical evidence relating to the effect of nutraceuticals on NAFLD-related parameters. Our reading of the data is that whilst many nutraceuticals have been studied in relation to NAFLD, none have sufficient evidence to recommend their routine use; robust trials are required to appropriately address efficacy and safety.

Spatial and temporal pattern of deficient Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR): impact on Kharif (summer monsoon) food grain production in India

Despite a significant increasing trend in historical food grain production (FGP) in India, deficient Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) often causes a reduction in FGP. The present study was carried out to understand temporal and spatial variations in deficient rainfall (drought) and their impact on national and regional FGP of India. Long-term (1901-2020) percentage departure in rainfall and drought areas over the country showed nonsignificant and significant trends, respectively. Subdivisional rainfall showed significant decreasing and increasing trends in 4 and 5 subdivisions, respectively. Drought years of high frequency (once in 3-4 years) and 4 to 5 consecutive drought years (once in 120 years) occurred in northwest and western subdivisions of India. Departure in de-trended production of All India Kharif food grains from its normal (DDP) showed significant quadratic relationship with departure in ISMR from its normal (DRF). Besides the quadratic equation, another multiple regression model taking de-trended crop area, DRF, and drought area as predictor variables was developed for predicting DDP. Both these models, with high R² (0.8-0.88) between observed and predicted data and low RMSE (2.6-2.7%), can be employed for advanced estimation of DDP of the country and for taking country-level policy decisions by the Indian Government. For the first time, models were formulated to estimate state-wise departure in FGP (DP). In these models, novel indices viz., (i) rainfall departure and irrigation index (RDII) and (ii) physical and socio-economic index (PSEI), were used as predictor variables. These models, with R² (0.71-0.75) and RMSE of 11.8-14.2(< SD of observed data), hold promise for advance estimation of production loss in states, useful for regional-level planning by the Government of India, and testing them in other countries.

Is COVID-19 another case of the obesity paradox? Results from an international ecological study on behalf of the REPROGRAM Consortium Obesity study group

INTRODUCTION

Obesity has emerged as one of the major risk factors of severe morbidity and cause-specific mortality among severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected individuals. Patients with obesity also have overlapping cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, which make them increasingly vulnerable. This novel ecological study examines the impact of obesity and/or body mass index (BMI) on rates of population-adjusted cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Publicly available datasets were used to obtain relevant data on COVID-19, obesity and ecological variables. Group-wise comparisons and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was plotted to compute the area under the curve.

RESULTS

We found that male BMI is an independent predictor of cause-specific (COVID-19) mortality, and not of the caseload per million population. Countries with obesity rates of 20-30% had a significantly higher (approximately double) number of deaths per million population to both those in < 20% and > 30% slabs. We postulate that there may be a U-shaped paradoxical relationship between obesity and COVID-19 with the cause-specific mortality burden more pronounced in the countries with 20-30% obesity rates. These findings are novel along with the methodological approach of doing ecological analyses on country-wide data from publicly available sources.

CONCLUSIONS

We anticipate, in light of our findings, that appropriate targeted public health approaches or campaigns could be developed to minimize the risk and cause-specific morbidity burden due to COVID-19 in countries with nationwide obesity rates of 20-30%.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO European region in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents one of the most crucial threats to public health and modern health care. Previous studies have identified challenges with estimating the magnitude of the problem and its downstream effect on human health and mortality. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive set of regional and country-level estimates of AMR burden in the WHO European region to date.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for the WHO European region and its countries in 2019. Our methodological approach consisted of five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections with resistant pathogens are replaced with susceptible ones) and deaths associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections would not occur at all). Data were solicited from a wide array of international stakeholders; these included research hospitals, surveillance networks, and infection databases maintained by private laboratories and medical technology companies. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.

FINDINGS

We estimated 541 000 deaths (95% UI 370 000-763 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 133 000 deaths (90 100-188 000) attributable to bacterial AMR in the whole WHO European region in 2019. The largest fatal burden of AMR in the region came from bloodstream infections, with 195 000 deaths (104 000-333 000) associated with resistance, followed by intra-abdominal infections (127 000 deaths [81 900-185 000]) and respiratory infections (120 000 deaths [94 500-154 000]). Seven leading pathogens were responsible for about 457 000 deaths associated with resistance in 53 countries of this region; these pathogens were, in descending order of mortality, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterococcus faecium, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Methicillin-resistant S aureus was shown to be the leading pathogen-drug combination in 27 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E coli predominated in 47 countries for deaths associated with AMR.

INTERPRETATION

The high levels of resistance for several important bacterial pathogens and pathogen-drug combinations, together with the high mortality rates associated with these pathogens, show that AMR is a serious threat to public health in the WHO European region. Our regional and cross-country analyses open the door for strategies that can be tailored to leading pathogen-drug combinations and the available resources in a specific location. These results underscore that the most effective way to tackle AMR in this region will require targeted efforts and investments in conjunction with continuous outcome-based research endeavours.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Tillage and crop establishment effects on weeds and productivity of a rice-wheat-mungbean rotation

Weeds are one of the key threats in sustaining the productivity of the rice-wheat cropping system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains. The development of sound integrated weed management technologies requires knowledge of mechanisms that influence weed flora composition and weed seedbank dynamics. A long-term study was initiated in 2015 at Patna, Bihar, India to evaluate the effect of seven tillage and crop establishment methods on weed density, weed seedbank composition, and crop productivity in rice-wheat-mungbean rotation. All the treatments included zero-till mungbean after wheat. Tillage and crop establishment methods had differential effects on weed and weed seedbank composition. In rice, zero-till direct-seeded rice recorded 62% lower emergence of Cyperus iria, 82-90% of Echinochloa colona, and 81-83% of total weeds compared to tilled systems, but the system of rice and wheat intensification favoured E. colona. In wheat, the system of wheat intensification favoured the Phalaris minor and Solanum nigrum. Zero-till rice and wheat reduced the seedbank of Trianthema portulacastrum by 95%, and total weed seedbank by 62% compared to the system of rice and wheat intensification. Nearly, 72% of C. iria seeds, 62% of grasses, and 64% of broad-leaved weeds were in 0-15 cm soil layer. Zero-till direct-seeded rice produced a 13% lower rice grain yield than conventional puddled transplanted rice. Compared to the system of wheat intensification, zero-till wheat under triple zero-till systems produced an 11.5% higher grain yield. Managing weed seedbank is a long-term endeavour. The present study revealed that tillage and crop establishment methods influence weed density and diversity. Under zero-till rice-wheat system, rice yield decreases marginally, but the system productivity maintains due to improvement in succeeding wheat yield. This system is also helpful in reducing the weed flora density and soil weed seedbank. Regular monitoring and management of emerging pests such as armyworm (Mythimna separata) are, however, required. The study suggests that the adoption of triple zero-tillage can be a viable option for reducing the weed density and weed seedbank concurrently increasing the system productivity of the rice-wheat-mungbean cropping system in eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Step-by-step diagnosis and management of the nocebo/drucebo effect in statin-associated muscle symptoms patients: a position paper from the International Lipid Expert Panel (ILEP)

Statin intolerance is a clinical syndrome whereby adverse effects (AEs) associated with statin therapy [most commonly statin-associated muscle symptoms (SAMS)] result in the discontinuation of therapy and consequently increase the risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, complete statin intolerance occurs in only a small minority of treated patients (estimated prevalence of only 3-5%). Many perceived AEs are misattributed (e.g. physical musculoskeletal injury and inflammatory myopathies), and subjective symptoms occur as a result of the fact that patients expect them to do so when taking medicines (the nocebo/drucebo effect)-what might be truth even for over 50% of all patients with muscle weakness/pain. Clear guidance is necessary to enable the optimal management of plasma in real-world clinical practice in patients who experience subjective AEs. In this Position Paper of the International Lipid Expert Panel (ILEP), we present a step-by-step patient-centred approach to the identification and management of SAMS with a particular focus on strategies to prevent and manage the nocebo/drucebo effect and to improve long-term compliance with lipid-lowering therapy.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

Study protocol: IMPETUS: Implementing a uniform stroke care pathway in medical colleges of India: IMPETUS Stroke

Introduction:

In India, a national program for stroke (national programme for the control of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer, and stroke) and stroke management guidelines exist. Its successful implementation would need an organized system of stroke care in practice. However, many challenges exist including lack of awareness, prehospital notification systems, stroke ready hospitals, infrastructural weaknesses, and rehabilitation. We present here a protocol to investigate the feasibility and fidelity of implementing a uniform stroke care pathway in medical colleges of India.

Methods and Analysis:

This is a multicentric, prospective, multiphase, mixed-method, quasi-experimental implementation study intended to examine the changes in a select set of stroke care-related indicators over time within the sites exposed to the same implementation strategy. We shall conduct process evaluation of the implementation process as well as evaluate the effect of the implementation strategy using the interrupted time series design. During implementation phase, education and training about standard stroke care pathway will be provided to all stakeholders of implementing sites. Patient-level outcomes in the form of modified Rankin Scale score will be collected for all consecutive patients throughout the study. Process evaluation outcomes will be collected and reported in the form of various stroke care indicators. We will report level and trend changes in various indicators during the three study phases.

Discussion:

Acute stroke requires timely detection, management, and secondary prevention. Implementation of the uniform stroke care pathway is a unique opportunity to promote the requirements of homogenous stroke care in medical colleges of India.

Hypertensive urgencies during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in a tertiary hospital setting: a U-shaped alarming curve

INTRODUCTION

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic provoked unprecedented disturbance in hypertension care, while alarming concerns arose about its long-term consequences. We investigated the trends of emergency visits and admissions regarding uncontrolled hypertension in order to assess the impact of COVID-19 spread on population behavior towards hypertension urgencies during its first wave.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data from daily unscheduled visits and admission counts in the Cardiology sector were collected from the Emergency Department database of a tertiary General Hospital in Athens, Greece for the period January 15^th to July 15^th 2020. These data were compared with those from the previous year. Cases of patients who presented with hypertensive urgency or who were admitted due to uncontrolled hypertension were separately analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 7,373 patient records were analyzed. Hypertension urgency cases demonstrated a U-shaped distribution in 2020, showing a declining trend during the rapid virus spread, an image that was reversed after the transmission rate's decline. COVID-19 incidence in Greece was inversely associated with uncontrolled hypertension admissions during its declining phase (r = -0.64, p = 0.009), whereas total attendance exhibited a similar correlation during the first and the following months of the pandemic (r = 0.677, p = 0.031, r = -0.789, p = 0.001). Uncontrolled hypertension rate on admission was positively related to the national incidence of COVID-19 cases during the first months of 2020 (r = 0.82, p = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertensive urgency-related visits followed a U-shape distribution during the pandemic's first wave with the attendance nadir coinciding with the virus spread peak. This is a complex phenomenon, closely related to increased levels of public stress, disruptions in health care services and to a lesser extent to the imposed restrictions in transportation. The initial relative increase in uncontrolled hypertension-related admissions rate, combined with the later increase of hypertensive urgencies may be indicative of blood pressure deregulation among the studied population, which is multifactorial and potentially detrimental.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

A Multicentre Study Comparing Cerebrovascular Disease Profiles in Pacific Islander and Caucasian Populations Presenting with Stroke and Transient Ischaemic Attack

INTRODUCTION

In a multicentre study, we contrasted cerebrovascular disease profiles in Pacific Island (PI)-born patients (Indigenous Polynesian [IP] or Indo-Fijian [IF]) presenting with transient ischaemic attack (TIA), ischaemic stroke (IS) or intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) with those of Caucasians (CSs).

METHODS

Using a retrospective case-control design, we compared PI-born patients with age- and gender-matched CS controls. Consecutive patients were admitted to 3 centres in South Western Sydney (July 2013-June 2020). Demographic and clinical data studied included vascular risk factors, stroke subtypes, and imaging characteristics.

RESULTS

There were 340 CS, 183 (27%) IP, and 157 (23%) IF patients; mean age 65 years; and 302 (44.4%) female. Of these, 587 and patients presented with TIA/IS and 93 (13.6%) had ICH. Both IP and IF patients were significantly more likely to present >24 h from symptom onset (odds ratios [ORs] vs. CS 1.87 and 2.23). IP patients more commonly had body mass indexes >30 (OR 1.94). Current smoking and excess alcohol intake were higher in CS. Hypertension, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease were significantly higher in both IP and IF groups in comparison to CS. IP patients had higher rates of AF and those with known AF were more commonly undertreated than both IF and CS patients (OR 2.24, p = 0.007). ICH was more common in IP patients (OR 2.32, p = 0.005), while more IF patients had intracranial arterial disease (OR 5.10, p < 0.001).

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

Distinct cerebrovascular disease profiles are identifiable in PI-born patients who present with TIA or stroke symptoms in Australia. These may be used in the future to direct targeted approaches to stroke prevention and care in culturally and linguistically diverse populations.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of prehospital workflow optimization on treatment delays and clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The prehospital phase is critical in ensuring that stroke treatment is delivered quickly and is a major source of time delay. This study sought to identify and examine prehospital stroke workflow optimizations (PSWOs) and their impact on improving health systems, reperfusion rates, treatment delays, and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

The authors conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis by extracting data from several research databases (PubMed, Cochrane, Medline, and Embase) published since 2005. We used appropriate key search terms to identify clinical studies concerning prehospital workflow optimization, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

RESULTS

The authors identified 27 articles that looked at the impact of prehospital workflow optimizations on time and treatment parameters; 26 were included in the meta-analysis. The PSWO were subgrouped into three categories: improved intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) triage, large-vessel occlusion (LVO) bypass, and mobile stroke unit (MSU). The salient findings are as follows: improved IVT triage led to significantly improved rates of IVT (relative risk [RR] = 1.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18 to 2.75); however, MSU did not (RR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.52). Improved IVT triage (standard mean difference [SMD] = -0.82, 95% CI = -1.32 to -0.32), LVO bypass (SMD = -0.80, 95% CI = -1.13 to -0.47), and MSU (SMD = -0.87, 95% CI = -1.57 to -0.17) were found to significantly reduce door-to-needle time for IVT. MSU was found to significantly reduce call-to-needle (SMD = -1.41, 95% CI = -1.94 to -0.88) and onset-to-needle (SMD = -1.15, 95% CI = -1.74 to -0.56) times for IVT. MSU additionally demonstrated significant reduction in door-to-perfusion (SMD = -0.72, 95% CI = -1.32 to -0.12) as well as call-to-perfusion (SMD = -0.73, 95% CI = -1.08 to -0.38) times for EVT. Finally, PSWO did not demonstrate significant improvements in rates of good functional outcome (RR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.97 to 1.12) or mortality at 90 days (RR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.76 to 1.31).

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review and meta-analysis found that PSWO significantly improves several time metrics related to stroke treatment leading to improvement in IVT reperfusion rates. Thus, the implementation of these measures in stroke networks is a promising avenue to improve an often-neglected aspect of the stroke response. However, the limited available data suggest functional outcomes and mortality are not significantly improved by PSWO; hence, further studies and improvement strategies vis-à-vis PSWOs are warranted.

An impact of agronomic practices of sustainable rice-wheat crop intensification on food security, economic adaptability, and environmental mitigation across eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains

In the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (EIGP), conventional rice-wheat system has led to a decline in productivity, input-use efficiency, and profitability. To address these, a four-year field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of tillage and crop establishment (TCE) methods in rice-wheat-greengram rotation. The treatments included: 1) random puddled transplanted rice (RPTR) - conventional-till broadcast wheat (BCW) - zero-till greengram (ZTG); 2) line PTR (LPTR) - conventional-till drill sown wheat (CTW) - ZTG; 3) machine transplanted rice in puddled soil (CTMTR) - zero tillage wheat (ZTW) - ZTG; 4) machine transplanted rice in zero-till wet soil (ZTMTR) - ZTW - ZTG; 5) system of rice intensification (SRI) - system of wheat intensification (SWI) - ZTG; 6) direct-seeded rice (DSR) - ZTW - ZTG; and 7) zero-till DSR - ZTW - ZTG. During the initial two years, conventional rice system (PTR) recorded a 16.2 % higher rice grain yield than DSR system. Whereas in the fourth year, the rice yields under DSR and PTR were comparable. As compared to SRI/SWI, the average wheat yield in ZT system was significantly high, whereas in rice, SRI/SWI system was comparable with CT system. ZTW after non-puddled rice was at par to CTW after PTR. The ZT wheat produced 4.6 % more yield than CT system. DSR production system consumed 6.8 % less water compared to transplanted system. On the system basis, 10.8 % higher net returns were recorded with CA-based system compared to conventional system. The system energy productivity under CA-based production system was 14-36 % higher than PTR-based systems. CA-based system also led to 8-10 % lower global warming potential (GWP) than conventional methods. The current study indicated that as compared to conventional system, a significant gain in productivity, profitability and energy-use efficiency, and reduction in the environmental mitigation are possible with emerging alternative TCE methods. Long-term expansion and further refinement of these technologies in local areas need to be explored for the second green revolution.

CTP-guided reperfusion therapy in acute ischemic stroke: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Computed tomography perfusion (CTP) imaging could be useful in guiding reperfusion therapy or patient selection in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients. The aim of the current study was to determine the efficacy of the CTP-guided reperfusion therapy in AIS by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

Medline/PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library were searched using the terms: "CT perfusion", "acute stroke" and "reperfusion therapy". The following studies were included: (a) studies reporting original data; (b) patients aged 18 years or above; (c) patients diagnosed with anterior circulation AIS; and (d) studies with good methodological design.

RESULTS

Twenty-two studies were finally included in the metanalysis with a total of 5, 687 patients. CTP-guided reperfusion therapy was associated with increased odds of good functional outcome without significant difference in safety profile.

CONCLUSIONS

CTP-guided reperfusion therapy improved functional outcomes in AIS, with increased benefits to patients treated with endovascular thrombectomy.

In-hospital acute stroke workflow in acute stroke - Systems-based approaches

Clinical outcomes of acute ischaemic stroke patients have significantly improved with the advent of reperfusion therapy. However, time continues to be a critical factor. Reducing treatment delays by improving workflows can improve the efficacy of acute reperfusion therapy. Systems-based approaches have improved in-hospital temporal parameters, maximizing the utility of reperfusion therapies and improving clinical benefit to patients. However, studies aimed at optimizing and hence reducing treatment delays in emergency department (ED) settings are limited. The aim of this article is to discuss existing systems-based approaches to optimize ED acute stroke workflows and its value in reducing treatment delays and identify gaps in existing workflows that need optimization. Identifying gaps in acute stroke workflow, variations in processes and challenges in implementation, in the in-hospital settings, is essential for systems-based interventions to be effective in delivering improved outcomes for patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

Call for Action to Address Equity and Justice Divide During COVID-19

The coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) is deepening the inequity and injustice among the vulnerable communities. The current study aims to present an overview of the impact of COVID-19 on equity and social justice with a focus on vulnerable communities. Vulnerable communities include, but not limited to, healthcare workers, those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, ethnic or minority groups, immigrants or refugees, justice-involved populations, and people suffering from chronic diseases or mental illness. The implications of COVID-19 on these communities and systemic disparities beyond the current pandemic are also discussed. People from vulnerable communities' experience disproportionately adverse impacts of COVID-19. COVID-19 has exacerbated systemic disparities and its long-term negative impact on these populations foretell an impending crisis that could prevail beyond the COVID-19 era. It is onerous that systemic issues be addressed and efforts to build inclusive and sustainable societies be pursued to ensure the provision of universal healthcare and justice for all. Without these reinforcements, we would not only compromise the vulnerable communities but also severely limit our preparedness and response to a future pandemic.

Addressing the Covid-19 Burden on Medical Education and Training: The Role of Telemedicine and Tele-Education During and Beyond the Pandemic

Medical students are the future of sustainable health systems that are severely under pressure during COVID-19. The disruption in medical education and training has adversely impacted traditional medical education and medical students and is likely to have long-term implications beyond COVID-19. In this article, we present a comprehensive analysis of the existing structural and systemic challenges applicable to medical students and teaching/training programs and the impact of COVID-19 on medical students and education. Use of technologies such as telemedicine or remote education platforms can minimize increased mental health risks to this population. An overview of challenges during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic are also discussed, and targeted recommendations to address acute and systemic issues in medical education and training are presented. During the transition from conventional in-person or classroom teaching to tele-delivery of educational programs, medical students have to navigate various social, economic and cultural factors which interfere with their personal and academic lives. This is especially relevant for those from vulnerable, underprivileged or minority backgrounds. Students from vulnerable backgrounds are influenced by environmental factors such as unemployment of themselves and family members, lack of or inequity in provision and access to educational technologies and remote delivery-platforms, and increased levels of mental health stressors due to prolonged isolation and self-quarantine measures. Technologies for remote education and training delivery as well as sustenance and increased delivery of general well-being and mental health services to medical students, especially to those at high-risk, are pivotal to our response to COVID-19 and beyond.

At the Epicenter of COVID-19-the Tragic Failure of the Global Supply Chain for Medical Supplies

The tragic failure of the global supply chain in the face of the current coronavirus outbreak has caused acute shortages of essential frontline medical devices and personal protective equipment, crushing fear among frontline health workers and causing fundamental concerns about the sustainability of the health system. Much more coordination, integration, and management of global supply chains will be needed to mitigate the impact of the pandemics. This article describes the pressing need to revisit the governance and resilience of the supply chains that amplified the crisis at pandemic scale. We propose a model that profiles critical stockpiles and improves production efficiency through new technologies such as advanced analytics and blockchain. A new governance system that supports intervention by public-health authorities during critical emergencies is central to our recommendation, both in the face of the current crisis and to be better prepared for potential future crises. These reinforcements offer the potential to minimize the compromise of our healthcare workers and health systems due to infection exposure and build capacity toward preparedness and action for a future outbreak.

Designing Futuristic Telemedicine Using Artificial Intelligence and Robotics in the COVID-19 Era

Technological innovations such as artificial intelligence and robotics may be of potential use in telemedicine and in building capacity to respond to future pandemics beyond the current COVID-19 era. Our international consortium of interdisciplinary experts in clinical medicine, health policy, and telemedicine have identified gaps in uptake and implementation of telemedicine or telehealth across geographics and medical specialties. This paper discusses various artificial intelligence and robotics-assisted telemedicine or telehealth applications during COVID-19 and presents an alternative artificial intelligence assisted telemedicine framework to accelerate the rapid deployment of telemedicine and improve access to quality and cost-effective healthcare. We postulate that the artificial intelligence assisted telemedicine framework would be indispensable in creating futuristic and resilient health systems that can support communities amidst pandemics.

Telemedicine Across the Globe-Position Paper From the COVID-19 Pandemic Health System Resilience PROGRAM (REPROGRAM) International Consortium (Part 1)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has accelerated the adoption of telemedicine globally. The current consortium critically examines the telemedicine frameworks, identifies gaps in its implementation and investigates the changes in telemedicine framework/s during COVID-19 across the globe. Streamlining of global public health preparedness framework that is interoperable and allow for collaboration and sharing of resources, in which telemedicine is an integral part of the public health response during outbreaks such as COVID-19, should be pursued. With adequate reinforcement, telemedicine has the potential to act as the "safety-net" of our public health response to an outbreak. Our focus on telemedicine must shift to the developing and under-developing nations, which carry a disproportionate burden of vulnerable communities who are at risk due to COVID-19.

Cerebral collaterals in acute ischaemia: Implications for acute ischaemic stroke patients receiving reperfusion therapy

The cerebral collaterals play an important role in penumbral tissue sustenance after an acute ischaemic stroke. Recent studies have demonstrated the potential role of collaterals in the selection of acute ischaemic stroke patients eligible for reperfusion therapy. However, the understanding of the significance and evidence around the role of collateral status in predicting outcomes in acute ischaemic stroke patients treated with reperfusion therapy is still unclear. Moreover, the use of pre-treatment collaterals in patient selection and prognosis is relatively underappreciated in clinical settings. A focused review of the literature was performed on the various methods of collateral evaluation and the role of collateral status in acute ischaemic stroke patients receiving reperfusion therapy. We discuss the methods of evaluating pre-treatment collaterals in clinical settings. The patient selection based on collateral status as well as the prognostic and therapeutic value of collaterals in acute ischaemic stroke, in settings of intravenous thrombolysis or endovascular therapy alone, and bridge therapy, are summarized. Recommendations for future research and possible pharmacological intervention strategies aimed at collateral enhancement are also discussed. Collaterals may play an important role in identifying acute ischaemic stroke patients who are likely to benefit from endovascular treatment in an extended time window. Future neuroscientific efforts to better improve our understanding of the role of collaterals in acute ischaemia as well as clinical studies to delineate its role in patient selection and acute stroke prognosis are warranted.

Telemedicine as the New Outpatient Clinic Gone Digital: Position Paper From the Pandemic Health System REsilience PROGRAM (REPROGRAM) International Consortium (Part 2)

Technology has acted as a great enabler of patient continuity through remote consultation, ongoing monitoring, and patient education using telephone and videoconferencing in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) era. The devastating impact of COVID-19 is bound to prevail beyond its current reign. The vulnerable sections of our community, including the elderly, those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, those with multiple comorbidities, and immunocompromised patients, endure a relatively higher burden of a pandemic such as COVID-19. The rapid adoption of different technologies across countries, driven by the need to provide continued medical care in the era of social distancing, has catalyzed the penetration of telemedicine. Limiting the exposure of patients, healthcare workers, and systems is critical in controlling the viral spread. Telemedicine offers an opportunity to improve health systems delivery, access, and efficiency. This article critically examines the current telemedicine landscape and challenges in its adoption, toward remote/tele-delivery of care, across various medical specialties. The current consortium provides a roadmap and/or framework, along with recommendations, for telemedicine uptake and implementation in clinical practice during and beyond COVID-19.

Cytokine Storm in COVID-19-Immunopathological Mechanisms, Clinical Considerations, and Therapeutic Approaches: The REPROGRAM Consortium Position Paper

Cytokine storm is an acute hyperinflammatory response that may be responsible for critical illness in many conditions including viral infections, cancer, sepsis, and multi-organ failure. The phenomenon has been implicated in critically ill patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus implicated in COVID-19. Critically ill COVID-19 patients experiencing cytokine storm are believed to have a worse prognosis and increased fatality rate. In SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, cytokine storm appears important to the pathogenesis of several severe manifestations of COVID-19: acute respiratory distress syndrome, thromboembolic diseases such as acute ischemic strokes caused by large vessel occlusion and myocardial infarction, encephalitis, acute kidney injury, and vasculitis (Kawasaki-like syndrome in children and renal vasculitis in adult). Understanding the pathogenesis of cytokine storm will help unravel not only risk factors for the condition but also therapeutic strategies to modulate the immune response and deliver improved outcomes in COVID-19 patients at high risk for severe disease. In this article, we present an overview of the cytokine storm and its implications in COVID-19 settings and identify potential pathways or biomarkers that could be targeted for therapy. Leveraging expert opinion, emerging evidence, and a case-based approach, this position paper provides critical insights on cytokine storm from both a prognostic and therapeutic standpoint.

Chronic Neurology in COVID-19 Era: Clinical Considerations and Recommendations From the REPROGRAM Consortium

With the rapid pace and scale of the emerging coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a growing body of evidence has shown a strong association of COVID-19 with pre- and post- neurological complications. This has necessitated the need to incorporate targeted neurological care for this subgroup of patients which warrants further reorganization of services, healthcare workforce, and ongoing management of chronic neurological cases. The social distancing and the shutdown imposed by several nations in the midst of COVID-19 have severely impacted the ongoing care, access and support of patients with chronic neurological conditions such as Multiple Sclerosis, Epilepsy, Neuromuscular Disorders, Migraine, Dementia, and Parkinson disease. There is a pressing need for governing bodies including national and international professional associations, health ministries and health institutions to harmonize policies, guidelines, and recommendations relating to the management of chronic neurological conditions. These harmonized guidelines should ensure patient continuity across the spectrum of hospital and community care including the well-being, safety, and mental health of the patients, their care partners and the health professionals involved. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on chronic neurological conditions and specific recommendations to minimize the potential harm to those at high risk.

Key Strategies for Clinical Management and Improvement of Healthcare Services for Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Patients in the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Settings: Recommendations From the REPROGRAM Consortium

Patients with cardiovascular disease and diabetes are at potentially higher risk of infection and fatality due to COVID-19. Given the social and economic costs associated with disability due to these conditions, it is imperative that specific considerations for clinical management of these patients be observed. Moreover, the reorganization of health services around the pandemic response further exacerbates the growing crisis around limited access, treatment compliance, acute medical needs, and mental health of patients in this specific subgroup. Existing recommendations and guidelines emanating from respective bodies have addressed some of the pressure points; however, there are variations and limitations vis a vis patient with multiple comorbidities such as obesity. This article will pull together a comprehensive assessment of the association of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity and COVID-19, its impact on the health systems and how best health systems can respond to mitigate current challenges and future needs. We anticipate that in the context of this pandemic, the cardiovascular disease and diabetes patients need a targeted strategy to ensure the harm to this group does not translate to huge costs to society and to the economy. Finally, we propose a triage and management protocol for patients with cardiovascular disease and diabetes in the COVID-19 settings to minimize harm to patients, health systems and healthcare workers alike.

Separating posterior-circulation stroke from vestibular neuritis with quantitative vestibular testing

OBJECTIVE

To separate vestibular neuritis (VN) from posteriorcirculation stroke (PCS) using quantitative tests of canal and otolith function.

METHODS

Video Head-Impulse tests (vHIT) were used to assess all three semicircular canal pairs; vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) gain and saccade metrics were examined. Cervical and ocular-Vestibular-Evoked Myogenic Potentials (c- and oVEMP) and Subjective Visual Horizontal (SVH) were used to assess otolith function.

RESULTS

For controls (n = 40), PCS (n = 22), and VN (n = 22), mean horizontal-canal VOR-gains were 0.96 ± 0.1, 0.85 ± 0.3 and 0.40 ± 0.2, refixation-saccade prevalence was 71.9 ± 41, 90.7 ± 57, 209.2 ± 62 per 100 impulses and cumulative-saccade amplitudes were 0.9 ± 0.4°, 2.4 ± 2.2°, 8.0 ± 3.5°. Abnormality-rates for cVEMP, oVEMP and SVH were 38%, 9%, 72% for PCS, and 43%, 50%, 91% for VN. A gain ≤0.68, refixation-saccade prevalence of ≥135% and cumulative-saccade amplitudes ≥5.3° separated VN from PCS with sensitivities of 95.5%, 95.5%, and 81.8%, and specificities of 68.2%, 86.4% and 95.5%. VOR-gain and saccade prevalence when combined, separated VN from PCS with a sensitivity and specificity of 90.9%. Abnormal oVEMP asymmetry-ratios were of low sensitivity (50%) but high specificity (90.9%) for separating VN from PCS.

CONCLUSION

vHIT provided the best separation of VN from PCS. VOR-gain, refixation-saccade prevalence and amplitude were effective discriminators of VN from PCS.

SIGNIFICANCE

vHIT and oVEMP could assist early identification of the aetiology of Acute Vestibular Syndrome in the Emergency Room.

Acute Neurological Care in the COVID-19 Era: The Pandemic Health System silience () Consortium Pathway

The management of acute neurological conditions, particularly acute ischemic stroke, in the context of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is of importance, considering the risk of infection to the healthcare workers and patients and emerging evidence of the neuroinvasive potential of the virus. There are variations in expert guidelines further complicating the picture for clinicians in acute settings. In this light, there is a compelling need for further formulation of recommendations that compile these variations seen in the numerous guidelines present. Health system protocols for managing ongoing acute neurological care and intervention need consideration of safety and well-being of the frontline healthcare workers and the patients. We examine existing pathways and their efficacy to mitigate viral exposure to the healthcare workers and patients and synthesize a systemic approach to manage patients with acute neurological conditions in the COVID-19 scenario. Early experiences with a COVID-19 positive stroke patient treated with endovascular thrombectomy is presented to highlight the urgent need for adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) during acute neuro-interventional procedures.